Behind the Numbers - Public opinion in this country is everything.

Posted at 11:47 AM ET, 04/27/2012

Rubio’s Hispanic appeal uncertain

By Scott Clement

Sen. Marco Rubio is weaker among non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida.

By Scott Clement | 11:47 AM ET, 04/27/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: GOP nomination, 2012 polls, Exit polls, Immigration, Republican Party | Tags: Marco Rubio, polls

Posted at 06:30 AM ET, 04/04/2012

Wisconsin exit polls highlights

By Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Democrats back Santorum and Romney gets invited to tea party.

By Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 06:30 AM ET, 04/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Exit polls, Voting

Posted at 11:06 AM ET, 04/03/2012

Wisconsin, Maryland exit polls: What to watch for

By Scott Clement

Blue state Republicans, fewer evangelicals and around 6,000 Republican voters in D.C. are what’s in store for Tuesday’s primaries.

By Scott Clement | 11:06 AM ET, 04/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party

Posted at 08:37 AM ET, 03/21/2012

Romney nets double-digit Illinois win

By Jon Cohen, Scott Clement and Peyton M. Craighill

Republican voters clashed along familiar dividing lines Tuesday, with Mitt Romney scoring a convincing win amid Illinois’ more welcoming Republican electorate.

By Jon Cohen, Scott Clement and Peyton M. Craighill | 08:37 AM ET, 03/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: GOP nomination, Exit polls, 2012 polls, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 12:26 PM ET, 03/20/2012

Romney appears poised to win Illinois: A look at why

By Scott Clement

The state’s swing in his favor has less to do with changes among the state’s voters and more with his emergence as this year’s mainstream and moderate Republican choice.

By Scott Clement | 12:26 PM ET, 03/20/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 10:47 AM ET, 03/14/2012

Exit polls: Santorum wins Alabama and Mississippi

By Scott Clement, Peyton M. Craighill and Jon Cohen

Rick Santorum’s southern sweep in Alabama and Mississippi was propelled by voters eager for a candidate with “strong moral character” or “a true conservative.” About four in 10 voters in both Alabama and Mississippi picked one of these two as the most important attribute they were looking for in a candidate, and Santorum won close to six in 10 of them.

By Scott Clement, Peyton M. Craighill and Jon Cohen | 10:47 AM ET, 03/14/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination

Posted at 12:11 AM ET, 03/14/2012

Is Romney losing his edge among "economy voters?"

By Jon Cohen

Beyond a pair of loses Tuesday, one potentially troubling sign for Mitt Romney is his slippage among "economy voters." The chart below compiles data from the Republican contests with exit polls. It shows Romney's once big advantages among these voters has dissipated significantly as the primaries have unfolded.

By Jon Cohen | 12:11 AM ET, 03/14/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Crosstabs, Economy, Exit polls, Republican Party, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 05:48 PM ET, 03/13/2012

Preliminary exit polls: Who is voting in Mississippi and Alabama?

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Here are some of the highlights on what the electorate looks like and what voters were focused on as they left polling places.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 05:48 PM ET, 03/13/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting | Tags: Alabama, Mississippi, Republican Party, presidential election, Polls

Posted at 01:39 PM ET, 03/13/2012

Mississippi, Alabama exit polls: What to watch for

By Scott Clement

With no clear favorite in the Mississippi and Alabama GOP primaries, here are three key factors to watch in tonight’s exit polls.

By Scott Clement | 01:39 PM ET, 03/13/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting | Tags: Alabama, Mississippi, polls

Posted at 06:00 AM ET, 03/08/2012

Is Gingrich primed for a Southern sweep?

By Scott Clement

Newt Gingrich had a convincing win in Georgia on Tuesday. Can he run the table in the South’s remaining March contests?

By Scott Clement | 06:00 AM ET, 03/08/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party

Posted at 11:54 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Romney wards off Paul in Virginia despite independent surge

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham

Independents in Virginia picked Ron Paul by a 2 to 1 margin, but Mitt Romney dominated among Republicans.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham | 11:54 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting, Virginia

Posted at 10:36 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Evangelical voters raise Santorum to victory in Tennessee

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham

The Tennessee electorate turned out to be the most evangelical so far in the Republican nomination fight, helping secure a victory for former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham | 10:36 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party | Tags: Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum, Tennessee, Tennessee primary

Posted at 09:00 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Ohio primary amplifies party divide

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham

Mitt Romney narrowly edged Rick Santorum in Ohio, the biggest prize of Super Tuesday, splitting the Republican electorate along now familiar ideological and religious lines.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham | 09:00 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 06:12 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Super Tuesday exit polls: an early look

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

In Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia, GOP electorates are shaping up to look a lot like those of four years ago, with some important differences.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 06:12 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Voting, Republican Party

Posted at 09:29 AM ET, 03/06/2012

Super Tuesday exit poll cheat sheet

By Scott Clement

Here’s a cheat sheet for following all Super Tuesday's voting and what to look for in the exit poll numbers as they start to trickle out this evening.

By Scott Clement | 09:29 AM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 09:51 PM ET, 02/28/2012

‘Electability’ fuels Romney’s victory, Religion and Democrats for Rick Santorum in Michigan

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Mitt Romney eked out a victory in Michigan Tuesday, beating back a stiff challenge from Rick Santorum by scoring big wins among voters looking for “experience” and those prioritizing electability.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 09:51 PM ET, 02/28/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 01:26 PM ET, 02/28/2012

Michigan and Arizona exit polls: Five things to watch

By Scott Clement

Today’s contests in Arizona and Michigan are the biggest test of Rick Santorum’s staying power since beating Mitt Romney in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota earlier this month.

By Scott Clement | 01:26 PM ET, 02/28/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 08:19 PM ET, 01/31/2012

What’s behind Romney’s romp?

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Mitt Romney scored a decisive win in Florida’s primary Tuesday by regaining momentum on electability and neutralizing major weaknesses.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 08:19 PM ET, 01/31/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party

Posted at 01:14 PM ET, 01/31/2012

Florida exit polls: Five things to watch

By Scott Clement

It’s in the 70s and sunny in Tampa Bay as Florida voters head to the polls. Here are our top five factors to watch as exit poll results start rolling in.

By Scott Clement | 01:14 PM ET, 01/31/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 09:52 PM ET, 01/21/2012

Debates, late deciders propel Gingrich to win in South Carolina

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Newt Gingrich posted a double-digit victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, with late deciders delivering a clear rebuke to Mitt Romney, the one-time-front-runner.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 09:52 PM ET, 01/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 06:00 AM ET, 01/11/2012

New Hampshire primary: 10 key exit poll results

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Beneath Romney’s double-digit victory in New Hampshire, exit polls show a very different Republican electorate from last week’s Iowa caucuses. Here are the top 10 findings from an exit poll of voters conducted at 40 polling places across the state.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 06:00 AM ET, 01/11/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 08:11 PM ET, 01/10/2012

How Romney won the New Hampshire primary

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Romney swept to a big win in New Hampshire, with significant strength among the Republican base, and a big advantage as the most electable GOP candidate.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 08:11 PM ET, 01/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 05:03 PM ET, 01/10/2012

New Hampshire exit polls: where to follow them

By Scott Clement

Follow Post Polling analysis of exit poll data from tonight’s New Hampshire Primary on the Post’s Election 2012 blog and @postpolls on Twitter.

By Scott Clement | 05:03 PM ET, 01/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Voting

Posted at 02:46 PM ET, 01/10/2012

New Hampshire primary exit polls: What to watch for

By Scott Clement

Exit polls in New Hampshire will offer a look at how primary voters made their decision. Here are five key factors to watch in tonight’s results.

By Scott Clement | 02:46 PM ET, 01/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 06:35 PM ET, 01/04/2012

Poll watcher: Huntsman’s time in China of no help in race

By Scott Clement

Jon Huntsman’s two years as ambassador to China have earned him almost no support in the race for the GOP presidential nod. Huntsman came in dead last in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses. Do Republicans value Huntsman’s foreign policy credentials?

By Scott Clement | 06:35 PM ET, 01/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, International polls, Voting, GOP nomination, GOP nomination

Posted at 01:28 AM ET, 01/04/2012

Iowa caucus exposes party fissures

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

The three candidates at the top of the Iowa Republican caucus results have distinct constituencies, ones that echo broader divisions within the GOP.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 01:28 AM ET, 01/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Voting

Posted at 10:25 PM ET, 01/03/2012

Ron Paul and Mitt Romney: 2012 vs. 2008 in Iowa

By Peyton M. Craighill

Results for the Iowa caucuses were razor thin with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum battling for the top spot. The repeat contenders, Paul and Romney have seen some big shifts, but also eerie consistency.

By Peyton M. Craighill | 10:25 PM ET, 01/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 09:47 PM ET, 01/03/2012

Evangelicals less united in 2012 caucuses

By Scott Clement

Early entrance polls show evangelical Christians making up a majority of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, similar to 2008 when 60 percent of caucus-goers were evangelicals and helped turn the tide in favor of Mike Huckabee. This year, though, evangelicals are less united behind any of the GOP contenders.

By Scott Clement | 09:47 PM ET, 01/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 08:31 PM ET, 01/03/2012

Early Iowa entrance poll findings

By Jon Cohen

Early entrance poll numbers -- which may or may not be representative of the electorate -- show a higher share of independents and moderates than in 2008, as well as a little older electorate.

By Jon Cohen | 08:31 PM ET, 01/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: GOP nomination, 2012 polls, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 06:49 PM ET, 01/31/2011

Data retread: can a Mormon win?

By Jon Cohen

In Dec. 2007, 22 percent of Americans said they would be less apt to vote for a Mormon presidential candidate. That was higher than the percentages saying they would be less likely to support someone who has been a religious leader (19 percent), a woman (15) or an African American (5). But also notable is that the percentage turning away from a Mormon candidate dropped significantly - by 13 percentage points - between Dec. 2006 and Dec. 2007. Over this same time period, the percentage of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents saying being a Mormon was of no consequence rose 11 points to 72 percent, as the percentage less likely to vote for a Mormon candidate dropped from 36 to 21 percent.

By Jon Cohen | 06:49 PM ET, 01/31/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, Exit polls, Exit polls, Exit polls | Tags: Washington Post-ABC News poll; Post polling; Post poll; Post-ABC News poll

Posted at 11:23 AM ET, 11/10/2010

New exit poll numbers! (Oy.)

By Jon Cohen

Final updated exit poll numbers now available, giving you a whole new set of numbers to memorize.

By Jon Cohen | 11:23 AM ET, 11/10/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: 2010, election, exit polls, midterms

Posted at 01:48 AM ET, 11/03/2010

Exit poll: big shift among independents

By Jon Cohen

2010 2008 president National House GOP +19 Dem +8 California Sen. GOP +4 Dem +33 Kentucky Sen. GOP +16 GOP +20 Nevada Senate GOP +4 Dem +13 Ohio Senate GOP +39 Dem +8 Penn. Senate GOP +10 Dem +17 W. VA. Senate Dem +7 GOP +19 Wisc. Senate GOP...

By Jon Cohen | 01:48 AM ET, 11/03/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: election 2010, exit polls

Posted at 11:56 PM ET, 11/02/2010

Exit poll: Johnson, Walker victories in Wisconsin

By Kyle Dropp

The G.O.P. wave has reached Wisconsin. A dramatic swing among independent voters helped derail Wisconsin Democrat Russ Feingold's bid for a fourth term against Republican businessman Ron Johnson. In the Governor's race, Republican Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker defeated Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. In the Senate race, the 27...

By Kyle Dropp | 11:56 PM ET, 11/02/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: barrett, feingold, johnson, walker, wisconsin

Posted at 08:47 PM ET, 11/02/2010

Exit poll: Manchin's victory in West Virginia

By Kyle Dropp

Democrat Joe Manchin has beaten back a strong challenge from Republican John Raese in the West Virginia Senate race. Manchin's coalition is drawn from Democrats, women, adult over 50 and voters earning less than $50,000 per year. Democrats accounted for 42 percent of statewide voters, while Republicans made up 35...

By Kyle Dropp | 08:47 PM ET, 11/02/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: senate, west virginia

Posted at 08:47 PM ET, 11/02/2010

Exit poll: Manchin's victory in West Virginia

By Kyle Dropp

Democrat Joe Manchin has beaten back a strong challenge from Republican John Raese in the West Virginia Senate race. Manchin's coalition is drawn from Democrats, women, adult over 50 and voters earning less than $50,000 per year. Democrats accounted for 42 percent of statewide voters, while Republicans made up 35...

By Kyle Dropp | 08:47 PM ET, 11/02/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: senate, west virginia

Posted at 08:07 PM ET, 11/02/2010

Exit poll: Paul's victory in Kentucky

By Kyle Dropp

In Kentucky's contest for U.S. Senate, Tea Party favorite Rand Paul captured the Senate seat, besting his opponent, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway. Paul's winning coalition was drawn from majorities of Republicans, conservatives, men, middle and upper income earners, and middle aged and older voters. His strong showing is at...

By Kyle Dropp | 08:07 PM ET, 11/02/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, Exit polls | Tags: kentucky, tea party

Posted at 07:51 PM ET, 11/02/2010

Exit poll: Portman's victory in Ohio

By Kyle Dropp

Economic anxiety is particularly acute in Ohio, where Republican Rob Portman just defeated Democrat Lee Fisher in the U.S. Senate race. In Ohio, 34 percent have seen a job loss in their household in recent years, higher than the figure nationally. And a full 88 percent are either "very worried"...

By Kyle Dropp | 07:51 PM ET, 11/02/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: ohio

Posted at 06:10 PM ET, 11/02/2010

Early exit polls: top issues this election

By Kyle Dropp

As expected, the economy is on the top of voters' minds today, as more than six in 10 say it is the most important issue facing the country, according to preliminary exit poll data. About two in 10 cite health care as the most pressing issue. So-called "economy" voters tilt...

By Kyle Dropp | 06:10 PM ET, 11/02/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: afghanistan, economy, health care, tax cuts

Posted at 01:35 PM ET, 11/02/2010

Exit poll: priorities for the next Congress

By Kyle Dropp

Poll workers across the country will be counting millions more ballots throughout the night, but exit polls shed light on the new direction voters want the 112th Congress to take. Overall, voters came down firmly against expanded government: 56 percent told exit pollsters that the government is doing too may...

By Kyle Dropp | 01:35 PM ET, 11/02/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls | Tags: bush, health care, role of government, tax cuts

Posted at 10:53 AM ET, 11/01/2010

Poll: union households part of GOP shift

By Kyle Dropp

With polls opening in less than 24 hours, one core Democratic constituency, labor union households, may be more splintered than in the past, according to the new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Union households back the Democratic candidate in their district over the GOP by a 54 to 42 percent margin,...

By Kyle Dropp | 10:53 AM ET, 11/01/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, Exit polls, Exit polls | Tags: exit polls, unions

Posted at 02:03 PM ET, 06/16/2010

Will Obama group get Southern hospitality from Gulf voters?

By Jennifer Agiesta

As they seek to drive turnout in the 2010 midterm elections, Organizing for America volunteers in the Gulf states may have a harder time finding new voters who supported President Obama in 2008 than those elsewhere in the country. The voter outreach group that grew out of the president's vast...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 02:03 PM ET, 06/16/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 03:54 PM ET, 07/06/2009

Palin: Everywoman or Conservative Darling?

By Jennifer Agiesta

Following up on today's back-and-forth about whether Sarah Palin represents the "democratic ideal" of the everywoman (see Ross Douthat here; John Sides here), we've assembled some data from last year's campaign. Favorability ratings taken in Washington Post-ABC News pre-election polls found some measure of the education divide Douthat suggests in...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 03:54 PM ET, 07/06/2009 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, Exit polls, Exit polls

Posted at 12:07 PM ET, 11/18/2008

Voters' Vantage Point: SCOTUS

By Jennifer Agiesta

President-elect Barack Obama is expected to have the opportunity to appoint several justices to the Supreme Court, with much of the speculation centered on Justice John Paul Stevens, the oldest and longest-serving of the nine. While Stevens is giving few signals about when he intends to step down, voters who...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 12:07 PM ET, 11/18/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 11/14/2008

Voters' Vantage Point: The Economy

By Jennifer Agiesta

This year's exit polls offer a few broad looks at voters' issue priorities and positions. Here's a quick rundown of where they stand on the economy. A look at other issues will follow in the days to come. The economy's rise as the election's top issue helped propel Barack Obama's...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 07:00 AM ET, 11/14/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 11/13/2008

Ideological Shift or Just Complicated?

By Jennifer Agiesta

The 2008 electorate was unquestionably a more Democratic group than had shown up at the polls in years, but does that change mean the nation's political views have shifted leftward? Network exit polls suggest little movement, at least in voters' adherence to ideological labels. Voters' stated ideology changed little since...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 07:00 AM ET, 11/13/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 01:49 PM ET, 11/07/2008

Exit Polls: A Look at Cell-Only Voters

By Jennifer Agiesta

Exit polling is notable after Election Day primarily for its massive store of data on voters. Among the unexplored numbers so far this year is new information about those voters who have abandoned their home phones and gone "cell-only." Cell-only voters have at least doubled their share of the electorate...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 01:49 PM ET, 11/07/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 11:23 PM ET, 11/04/2008

The Ghost of Exit Polls Past

By Jon Cohen

Regional coding in 1972 CBS News exit poll: Ghettos 1 - Black Ghetto 3 - Non-Ghetto...

By Jon Cohen | 11:23 PM ET, 11/04/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 12:13 PM ET, 11/04/2008

Where are my exits?

By Jon Cohen

Here's a brief overview of what to expect today from the exit polls and some tips about how not to be misled. First, you will need to wait a bit. The networks were not appreciative four years ago when early exit polls were leaked and widely misinterpreted, spurring premature Democratic...

By Jon Cohen | 12:13 PM ET, 11/04/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 11:07 AM ET, 08/11/2008

Iowa Without Edwards

By Jon Cohen

Would Hillary Clinton have won Iowa if John Edwards had been forced out of the race? Howard Wolfson thinks so.... Wolfson, former director of communications for Clinton's presidential bid, suggested to ABC News that the New York senator would have prevailed in Iowa had Edwards been forced from the race...

By Jon Cohen | 11:07 AM ET, 08/11/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 11:10 AM ET, 07/28/2008

Delving Deeper on Black Turnout

By Jennifer Agiesta

A little over a week ago, Behind The Numbers took a look at Obama's ability to turn red states blue simply by boosting black turnout over 2004 levels, and found that if all else remained the same, few states would flip without monumental increases. Even assuming 95 percent of African...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 11:10 AM ET, 07/28/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 05:26 PM ET, 06/04/2008

New Exit Poll Tables

By Jon Cohen

Thanks to ABC News, we now have our clearest view yet of all the voters who participated in caucuses and primaries in the 39 states that had exit polls. ABC is one of six partners in the National Election Pool (NEP), which sponsors the exit polls conducted by Edison-Mitofsky, and...

By Jon Cohen | 05:26 PM ET, 06/04/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 05:08 PM ET, 05/08/2008

Clinton's Broader Base?

By Jennifer Agiesta

UPDATE: This post has been updated to correct Bush's margin among white voters in 2000. Hillary Clinton's comments to USA Today arguing that her support among white voters in the primaries provides her with a broader base of support have set the blogosphere abuzz. In the interview, Clinton referred to...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 05:08 PM ET, 05/08/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 05:29 PM ET, 05/07/2008

More "Sincere" Crossover

By Jon Cohen

Here's more data for the raging debate over GOP mischief in last night's Democratic primary in Indiana: On balance, network exit polls show Republican crossover voters expressing little other than a sincere preference for Clinton over Obama. First, Clinton edged Obama in Indiana's open primary among self-identified Democrats, 52 to...

By Jon Cohen | 05:29 PM ET, 05/07/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 01:31 PM ET, 04/23/2008

Little GOP Mischief in Penn.

By Jon Cohen

More than 300,000 Pennsylvanians signed up as Democrats this year to be able to participate in yesterday's Democratic primary, which was limited to party members. Nearly half of those voters were formerly registered as Republicans, according to the Secretary of State, and there has been rampant speculation those voters switched...

By Jon Cohen | 01:31 PM ET, 04/23/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 01:44 PM ET, 02/15/2008

An education gap among white voters

By Jon Cohen

Today, Behind the Numbers shows the sizable "education gap" in Democratic voting patterns. In Post-ABC national polling, Clinton consistently scored better among voters without college degrees than among those with more education, and the pattern has held firm in primaries across the country. In fact, education has been a key...

By Jon Cohen | 01:44 PM ET, 02/15/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 05:51 PM ET, 02/14/2008

Democratic Demographics: Past and Future

By Jennifer Agiesta

Here's an update on last month's demographic preview. The first table shows the change from 2004 exit polls among key demographic groups. Below that you'll find demographics from the 2004 National Election Pool exit polls for all the remaining states where exit polling was conducted. The strong turnout in Democratic...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 05:51 PM ET, 02/14/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 01:50 AM ET, 02/13/2008

Tale of the tape: Clinton vs. Obama

By Jon Cohen

One helpful way to see the closely contested race between Clinton and Obama is to look across all 24 Democratic exit polls conducted by Edison-Mitofsky that included both candidates (there was an exit poll in Michigan, but Obama was not on the ballot there). For example, Obama won black voters...

By Jon Cohen | 01:50 AM ET, 02/13/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 06:56 PM ET, 02/07/2008

Parsing the GOP: Evangelicals

By Jennifer Agiesta

Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." Evangelical Christians: On Super Tuesday, evangelical Christians boosted Mike Huckabee in the south, where he picked up his first wins since Iowa. But in states...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 06:56 PM ET, 02/07/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, Exit polls

Posted at 06:06 PM ET, 02/02/2008

Parsing the GOP: The Bush Factor

By Jennifer Agiesta

Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." These are the voters to watch on Tuesday, and we'll take a look at each in a series of posts here on Behind the Numbers....

By Jennifer Agiesta | 06:06 PM ET, 02/02/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, Exit polls

Posted at 12:26 PM ET, 02/01/2008

Parsing the GOP: 'Independents'

By Jennifer Agiesta

Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." These are the voters to watch on Tuesday, and we'll take a look at each in a series of posts here on Behind the Numbers....

By Jennifer Agiesta | 12:26 PM ET, 02/01/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, Exit polls

Posted at 06:30 PM ET, 01/30/2008

Giuliani's exit, and the role of endorsements

By Jon Cohen

Giuliani's collapse from national front-runner to his swift exit after a disappointing showing in Florida is one for the record books, and the subject for another day, but where do his voters go? Perhaps anticipating Giuliani's demise (pre-election polls nailed this one), exit pollsters in Florida asked GOP voters for...

By Jon Cohen | 06:30 PM ET, 01/30/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 01/28/2008

Obama 2008 vs. Jackson 1988

By Jon Cohen

Former Pres. Bill Clinton caused a stir this week by comparing Barack Obama's success in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's in 1988 and 1984. But an analysis of the data shows that, while there are some similarities, Obama has already crossed racial divides in his presidential bid that Jackson...

By Jon Cohen | 11:00 AM ET, 01/28/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Posted at 10:29 PM ET, 01/26/2008

Behind Obama's Big S.C. Win

By Jon Cohen

Preview: Our story in the Sunday Post is headlined "Black Vote Vital, but Not the Whole Story." Obama was the overwhelming favorite among African American voters, and he picked up a quarter of white voters. As in previous contests, he did especially well among younger, better educated and wealthier voters....

By Jon Cohen | 10:29 PM ET, 01/26/2008 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls

Behind the Numbers: Exit polls