Behind the Numbers - Public opinion in this country is everything.

Posted at 02:20 PM ET, 05/15/2012

Political surveys survive response fall-off, Pew finds

By Scott Clement

The Pew Research Center’s latest detailed study of survey quality paints a worrisome picture for survey response rates, but again shows that a well-done telephone poll accurately represents the U.S. population on a broad range of political and demographic measures.

By Scott Clement | 02:20 PM ET, 05/15/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: methodology, Voting, Polls

Posted at 06:30 AM ET, 04/04/2012

Wisconsin exit polls highlights

By Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Democrats back Santorum and Romney gets invited to tea party.

By Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 06:30 AM ET, 04/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Exit polls, Voting

Posted at 08:37 AM ET, 03/21/2012

Romney nets double-digit Illinois win

By Jon Cohen, Scott Clement and Peyton M. Craighill

Republican voters clashed along familiar dividing lines Tuesday, with Mitt Romney scoring a convincing win amid Illinois’ more welcoming Republican electorate.

By Jon Cohen, Scott Clement and Peyton M. Craighill | 08:37 AM ET, 03/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: GOP nomination, Exit polls, 2012 polls, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 12:26 PM ET, 03/20/2012

Romney appears poised to win Illinois: A look at why

By Scott Clement

The state’s swing in his favor has less to do with changes among the state’s voters and more with his emergence as this year’s mainstream and moderate Republican choice.

By Scott Clement | 12:26 PM ET, 03/20/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 12:11 AM ET, 03/14/2012

Is Romney losing his edge among "economy voters?"

By Jon Cohen

Beyond a pair of loses Tuesday, one potentially troubling sign for Mitt Romney is his slippage among "economy voters." The chart below compiles data from the Republican contests with exit polls. It shows Romney's once big advantages among these voters has dissipated significantly as the primaries have unfolded.

By Jon Cohen | 12:11 AM ET, 03/14/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Crosstabs, Economy, Exit polls, Republican Party, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 05:48 PM ET, 03/13/2012

Preliminary exit polls: Who is voting in Mississippi and Alabama?

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Here are some of the highlights on what the electorate looks like and what voters were focused on as they left polling places.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 05:48 PM ET, 03/13/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting | Tags: Alabama, Mississippi, Republican Party, presidential election, Polls

Posted at 01:39 PM ET, 03/13/2012

Mississippi, Alabama exit polls: What to watch for

By Scott Clement

With no clear favorite in the Mississippi and Alabama GOP primaries, here are three key factors to watch in tonight’s exit polls.

By Scott Clement | 01:39 PM ET, 03/13/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting | Tags: Alabama, Mississippi, polls

Posted at 06:00 AM ET, 03/08/2012

Is Gingrich primed for a Southern sweep?

By Scott Clement

Newt Gingrich had a convincing win in Georgia on Tuesday. Can he run the table in the South’s remaining March contests?

By Scott Clement | 06:00 AM ET, 03/08/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party

Posted at 11:54 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Romney wards off Paul in Virginia despite independent surge

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham

Independents in Virginia picked Ron Paul by a 2 to 1 margin, but Mitt Romney dominated among Republicans.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham | 11:54 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting, Virginia

Posted at 10:36 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Evangelical voters raise Santorum to victory in Tennessee

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham

The Tennessee electorate turned out to be the most evangelical so far in the Republican nomination fight, helping secure a victory for former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham | 10:36 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party | Tags: Super Tuesday, Rick Santorum, Tennessee, Tennessee primary

Posted at 09:00 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Ohio primary amplifies party divide

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham

Mitt Romney narrowly edged Rick Santorum in Ohio, the biggest prize of Super Tuesday, splitting the Republican electorate along now familiar ideological and religious lines.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill, Scott Clement and Kristina Meacham | 09:00 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 06:12 PM ET, 03/06/2012

Super Tuesday exit polls: an early look

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

In Ohio, Tennessee and Georgia, GOP electorates are shaping up to look a lot like those of four years ago, with some important differences.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 06:12 PM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Voting, Republican Party

Posted at 09:29 AM ET, 03/06/2012

Super Tuesday exit poll cheat sheet

By Scott Clement

Here’s a cheat sheet for following all Super Tuesday's voting and what to look for in the exit poll numbers as they start to trickle out this evening.

By Scott Clement | 09:29 AM ET, 03/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 11:38 AM ET, 03/05/2012

Romney up in Super Tuesday polls

By Scott Clement

Mitt Romney is a favorite to win Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Idaho and possibly Ohio.

By Scott Clement | 11:38 AM ET, 03/05/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 09:51 PM ET, 02/28/2012

‘Electability’ fuels Romney’s victory, Religion and Democrats for Rick Santorum in Michigan

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Mitt Romney eked out a victory in Michigan Tuesday, beating back a stiff challenge from Rick Santorum by scoring big wins among voters looking for “experience” and those prioritizing electability.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 09:51 PM ET, 02/28/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 01:26 PM ET, 02/28/2012

Michigan and Arizona exit polls: Five things to watch

By Scott Clement

Today’s contests in Arizona and Michigan are the biggest test of Rick Santorum’s staying power since beating Mitt Romney in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota earlier this month.

By Scott Clement | 01:26 PM ET, 02/28/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 02:48 PM ET, 02/27/2012

Poll watcher: Michigan polls predict tight race

By Scott Clement

Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are running very closely in Michigan, according to the latest state polling, with Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich far behind.

By Scott Clement | 02:48 PM ET, 02/27/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 06:00 AM ET, 02/17/2012

Poll watcher: Independents a key for Romney in Michigan?

By Scott Clement

A potentially decisive question mark lingers ahead of the Wolverine State’s Feb. 28 primary: How many political independents will show up?

By Scott Clement | 06:00 AM ET, 02/17/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party

Posted at 12:01 AM ET, 02/06/2012

Romney leads big in poll as GOP base splinters

By Scott Clement

Mitt Romney holds a wide lead over other GOP contenders in a new Washington Post-ABC News national poll, but his support continues to lag among core Republican constituencies.

By Scott Clement | 12:01 AM ET, 02/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 07:23 PM ET, 02/01/2012

Does killing bad guys really help at the ballot box?

By Scott Clement

“For the first time in two decades, Osama bin Laden is not a threat to this country,” said President Obama the top of his State of the Union speech last week. Obama and his team clearly see eliminating bin Laden as a top administration achievement. But do Americans really reward at the ballot box presidents who take down their bogeyman?

By Scott Clement | 07:23 PM ET, 02/01/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: International polls, Barack Obama, Presidential Approval, Voting

Posted at 08:19 PM ET, 01/31/2012

What’s behind Romney’s romp?

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Mitt Romney scored a decisive win in Florida’s primary Tuesday by regaining momentum on electability and neutralizing major weaknesses.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 08:19 PM ET, 01/31/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party

Posted at 01:14 PM ET, 01/31/2012

Florida exit polls: Five things to watch

By Scott Clement

It’s in the 70s and sunny in Tampa Bay as Florida voters head to the polls. Here are our top five factors to watch as exit poll results start rolling in.

By Scott Clement | 01:14 PM ET, 01/31/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 12:17 PM ET, 01/30/2012

Poll watcher: Are capital gains tax rates popular?

By Scott Clement

A New York Times/CBS News poll shows a stark partisan divide on whether investment income should be taxed at a lower rate than ordinary earnings.

By Scott Clement | 12:17 PM ET, 01/30/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Barack Obama, Economy, Federal Budget Deficit, GOP nomination, Presidential Approval, Republican Party, Voting, methodology | Tags: budget deficit, gop nomination, Republican Party

Posted at 09:25 AM ET, 01/27/2012

Poll watcher: Romney leads Gingrich in Florida

By Scott Clement

Romney leads Gingrich by 38 to 29 percent in the Florida Republican primary contest, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

By Scott Clement | 09:25 AM ET, 01/27/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Republican Party | Tags: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 09:52 PM ET, 01/21/2012

Debates, late deciders propel Gingrich to win in South Carolina

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Newt Gingrich posted a double-digit victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, with late deciders delivering a clear rebuke to Mitt Romney, the one-time-front-runner.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 09:52 PM ET, 01/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 01/21/2012

South Carolina primary exit polls: Five key factors

By Scott Clement

Here are five factors that seem key going into South Carolina primary day.

By Scott Clement | 07:00 AM ET, 01/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 11:57 AM ET, 01/20/2012

Newt Gingrich surging against Mitt Romney in South Carolina

By Scott Clement

The latest horserace polls out of South Carolina show Newt Gingrich surging in advance of Saturday’s Republican primary.

By Scott Clement | 11:57 AM ET, 01/20/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Republican Party, Voting

Posted at 06:00 AM ET, 01/11/2012

New Hampshire primary: 10 key exit poll results

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Beneath Romney’s double-digit victory in New Hampshire, exit polls show a very different Republican electorate from last week’s Iowa caucuses. Here are the top 10 findings from an exit poll of voters conducted at 40 polling places across the state.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 06:00 AM ET, 01/11/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 08:11 PM ET, 01/10/2012

How Romney won the New Hampshire primary

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

Romney swept to a big win in New Hampshire, with significant strength among the Republican base, and a big advantage as the most electable GOP candidate.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 08:11 PM ET, 01/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 05:03 PM ET, 01/10/2012

New Hampshire exit polls: where to follow them

By Scott Clement

Follow Post Polling analysis of exit poll data from tonight’s New Hampshire Primary on the Post’s Election 2012 blog and @postpolls on Twitter.

By Scott Clement | 05:03 PM ET, 01/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Voting

Posted at 02:46 PM ET, 01/10/2012

New Hampshire primary exit polls: What to watch for

By Scott Clement

Exit polls in New Hampshire will offer a look at how primary voters made their decision. Here are five key factors to watch in tonight’s results.

By Scott Clement | 02:46 PM ET, 01/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, Exit polls, GOP nomination, Voting

Posted at 03:20 PM ET, 01/09/2012

Poll watcher: Romney slips in N.H.; Paul and Huntsman battle for second place

By Scott Clement

Mitt Romney’s wide lead in New Hampshire has shrunk in the past week, according to the Suffolk/7News tracking poll.

By Scott Clement | 03:20 PM ET, 01/09/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: GOP nomination, Voting, 2012 polls, 2012 polls

Posted at 06:35 PM ET, 01/04/2012

Poll watcher: Huntsman’s time in China of no help in race

By Scott Clement

Jon Huntsman’s two years as ambassador to China have earned him almost no support in the race for the GOP presidential nod. Huntsman came in dead last in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses. Do Republicans value Huntsman’s foreign policy credentials?

By Scott Clement | 06:35 PM ET, 01/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Exit polls, International polls, Voting, GOP nomination, GOP nomination

Posted at 01:28 AM ET, 01/04/2012

Iowa caucus exposes party fissures

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement

The three candidates at the top of the Iowa Republican caucus results have distinct constituencies, ones that echo broader divisions within the GOP.

By Jon Cohen, Peyton M. Craighill and Scott Clement | 01:28 AM ET, 01/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Exit polls, Voting

Posted at 10:25 PM ET, 01/03/2012

Ron Paul and Mitt Romney: 2012 vs. 2008 in Iowa

By Peyton M. Craighill

Results for the Iowa caucuses were razor thin with Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum battling for the top spot. The repeat contenders, Paul and Romney have seen some big shifts, but also eerie consistency.

By Peyton M. Craighill | 10:25 PM ET, 01/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 09:47 PM ET, 01/03/2012

Evangelicals less united in 2012 caucuses

By Scott Clement

Early entrance polls show evangelical Christians making up a majority of Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, similar to 2008 when 60 percent of caucus-goers were evangelicals and helped turn the tide in favor of Mike Huckabee. This year, though, evangelicals are less united behind any of the GOP contenders.

By Scott Clement | 09:47 PM ET, 01/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: 2012 polls, GOP nomination, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 08:31 PM ET, 01/03/2012

Early Iowa entrance poll findings

By Jon Cohen

Early entrance poll numbers -- which may or may not be representative of the electorate -- show a higher share of independents and moderates than in 2008, as well as a little older electorate.

By Jon Cohen | 08:31 PM ET, 01/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: GOP nomination, 2012 polls, Voting, Exit polls

Posted at 03:24 PM ET, 10/24/2011

Poll watcher: Sports fandom diverse, thumbs down on electoral college and Obama’s approval ratings

By Scott Clement

Washington area sports fans range the gamut from hyper-enthused “Megafans” to “Social fans” who care more about going to the game than following sports closely.

By Scott Clement | 03:24 PM ET, 10/24/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Barack Obama, D.C., Voting

Posted at 03:05 PM ET, 05/19/2010

GOP turnout jumps in Kentucky

By Jennifer Agiesta

More ballots were cast in yesterday's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Kentucky than in the Republican, but the total number of votes cast masks a stunning turnaround in the state's historical turnout patterns. Several bloggers (see examples here, here and here) have argued that Rand Paul's easy victory in...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 03:05 PM ET, 05/19/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 10:41 AM ET, 05/19/2010

In Arkansas and Pennsylvania, a tale of turnout

By Jennifer Agiesta

In yesterday's Senate primaries in Arkansas and Pennsylvania, turnout and shifting vote patterns left sitting Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) facing a runoff and defeated Sen. Arlen Specter (D-Penn.). The Arkansas' contest this year drew more voters than the state's 2008 presidential primary (with 99 percent counted, 326,216 have voted, compared...

By Jennifer Agiesta | 10:41 AM ET, 05/19/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 01:03 PM ET, 10/19/2007

House Retirees Missing Votes

By

Rep. Ray LaHood, R-Ill., has announced that he won't seek re-election in 2008, but his voting statistics suggest that he already has one foot out the door of Congress. LaHood has missed 18 percent of floor votes this year, easily the most in any session since coming to Washington in...

By | 01:03 PM ET, 10/19/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 06:21 PM ET, 06/29/2007

Colorado Republicans vs. the NEA

By

Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn advanced a Colorado tradition this week when he offered an amendment to the FY2008 Interior appropriations bill that would have eliminated funding for the National Endowment for the Arts, for which the House appropriated $160 million. The measure, which failed by a vote of 97-335, was...

By | 06:21 PM ET, 06/29/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 01:37 PM ET, 06/25/2007

Perfect Attendance in the House

By

While the news media makes much of lawmakers who miss a large percentage of votes in the House or Senate, less attention is paid to those who show up for every last roll call, even the ones congratulating sports teams and commemorating a week or month. A new feature on...

By | 01:37 PM ET, 06/25/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 04:44 PM ET, 06/06/2007

House Leaders' Votes With Party

By

One of the new features on our Congress Votes database is a score for each lawmaker that tracks the percentage of votes which they agree with a majority of their party colleagues (here are the current House members, for example). Among the top House leaders, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has...

By | 04:44 PM ET, 06/06/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 07:00 PM ET, 05/21/2007

A Busy House

By

The House of Representatives has been voting often this year. On May 2 the House was in session from 10 a.m. to 11:59 p.m. and during that time held 23 recorded votes, one shy of the most on a single calendar day in the period since 1991 (a "legislative day"...

By | 07:00 PM ET, 05/21/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 02:29 PM ET, 05/03/2007

Old Rivalries Die Hard

By

Votes in the House commending college championship sports teams usually are a lopsided affair, and this year's vote congratulating the Florida Gators for winning their second consecutive NCAA basketball title was no exception: it passed 415-0. But the lack of opposition doesn't mean everyone was in favor. Along with 13...

By | 02:29 PM ET, 05/03/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 04/24/2007

In the House, It's Unanimous

By

Amid the current partisan rancor in the House of Representatives there is also an unusual level of agreement. Of the first 244 votes in the House this year, 65 have been unanimously approved -- more than one in every four votes. So far, that's a far higher rate than in...

By | 10:00 AM ET, 04/24/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 06:00 AM ET, 04/13/2007

Stevens: Alaska's Most Reliable Voter

By

Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska is not only the longest-serving Senate Republican, as Paul Kane reports, but also one of its more dependable voters. In fact, Stevens, 83, has by far the best attendance record among Alaska's three-person delegation since 1991 (GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has missed fewer votes, but...

By | 06:00 AM ET, 04/13/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 06:30 AM ET, 04/10/2007

House Votes: Three Nail-biters So Far

By

The Democratic-controlled House has held more than 200 votes since the start of the 110th Congress, and so far there have been only three truly close votes with single-digit margins: the recent budget resolution, passage of the supplemental appropriations bill and a motion to recommit on a bill promoting the...

By | 06:30 AM ET, 04/10/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Posted at 12:01 AM ET, 04/09/2007

Blue Dogs Sticking With the Party

By

Members of the House Blue Dog Coalition - moderate and conservative Democrats - have been in lockstep with their party on most votes so far this year, an analysis of vote data shows. A majority of the 43 Blue Dogs have voted with their party 98.6 percent of the time,...

By | 12:01 AM ET, 04/09/2007 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Voting

Behind the Numbers: Voting