Capital Weather Gang: Tropical Weather
Posted at 02:15 PM ET, 08/16/2012
By Jason Samenow
The tropical Atlantic got its 7th named storm of the 2012 season this morning. Gordon developed over the open Atlantic and has intensified into a 50 mph tropical storm. As of 11 a.m. it was 640 miles east of Bermuda, heading northeast at 16 mph.
By Jason Samenow |
02:15 PM ET, 08/16/2012 |
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Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 08/16/2012
By Jason Samenow
Kai-tak has been upgraded to a typhoon, with maximum sustained winds of around 75 mph. The
track forecast has shifted the expected landfall to the south and west, steering the brunt of the storm south of Hong Kong in western Guangdong.
By Jason Samenow |
09:55 AM ET, 08/16/2012 |
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Posted at 12:35 PM ET, 08/10/2012
By Brian McNoldy*
After watching Ernesto for the past 10 days, we will wrap up the week with a couple of active systems in the central and eastern Atlantic. One is headed for the Lesser Antilles this weekend, and the other is just off the coast of Africa.
By Brian McNoldy* |
12:35 PM ET, 08/10/2012 |
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Posted at 12:24 PM ET, 08/09/2012
By Jason Samenow
The flurry of Atlantic tropical activity has prompted NOAA to bump up its prediction for the number of storms to expect through the end of hurricane season in November.
By Jason Samenow |
12:24 PM ET, 08/09/2012 |
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Posted at 12:55 PM ET, 08/07/2012
By Brian McNoldy*
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Ernesto to a Category 1 hurricane
By Brian McNoldy* |
12:55 PM ET, 08/07/2012 |
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Posted at 11:56 AM ET, 08/06/2012
By Brian McNoldy*
The once-feeble tropical storm Ernesto is now an ominous and rapidly-intensifying storm heading for Honduras and Belize, likely as a hurricane.
By Brian McNoldy* |
11:56 AM ET, 08/06/2012 |
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Posted at 01:57 PM ET, 08/03/2012
By Jason Samenow
Tropical storm Ernesto, which swept across the Windward islands, has entered the Caribbean and is forecast to strengthen gradually over the weekend. By Monday, the National Hurricane Center says, Ernesto may reach hurricane intensity.
By Jason Samenow |
01:57 PM ET, 08/03/2012 |
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Posted at 04:46 PM ET, 08/02/2012
By Jason Samenow
After more than a month hiatus, a tropical storm is alive and kicking in the Atlantic basin. The National Hurricane Center has upgraded tropical depression number 5 to tropical storm Ernesto as of late this afternoon. The storm’s maximum sustained winds are around 50 mph and gradual strengthening is forecast as it zips across the Windward islands into the Caribbean.
By Jason Samenow |
04:46 PM ET, 08/02/2012 |
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Posted at 02:57 PM ET, 08/02/2012
By Jason Samenow
Double trouble. Typhoon Damrey and tropical storm Saola are both making landfall in mainland China.
By Jason Samenow |
02:57 PM ET, 08/02/2012 |
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Posted at 02:46 PM ET, 07/23/2012
By Jason Samenow
After rapidly intensifying earlier today, typhoon Vicente is battering Hong Kong and locations in Southern China.
By Jason Samenow |
02:46 PM ET, 07/23/2012 |
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Posted at 07:11 PM ET, 06/27/2012
By Jason Samenow
The National Hurricane Center downgraded once tropical storm Debby to a post-tropical cyclone this evening, as the multi-day deluge over the Florida peninsula drew to a close. Since the weekend, the storm produced unthinkable amounts of rain, exceeding two feet in some areas, and tremendous flooding
By Jason Samenow |
07:11 PM ET, 06/27/2012 |
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Posted at 11:35 AM ET, 06/26/2012
By Jason Samenow
Debby, the minimal tropical storm which has sat and spun over the northeast Gulf of Mexico for several days, has produced rainfall totals in north Florida not to be believed, exceeding 20” in spots. Additional heavy rain is forecast, likely worsening ongoing flooding in the region.
By Jason Samenow |
11:35 AM ET, 06/26/2012 |
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Posted at 11:01 AM ET, 06/25/2012
By Greg Postel
Tropical storm Debby’s forward motion over the northern Gulf of Mexico has ground to a halt as it unleashes band after band of heavy rain over the state of Florida. The storm is going nowhere fast and could take until the end of the week to cross Florida panhandle coast as (at most) a 65 mph (55-knot) tropical storm
By Greg Postel |
11:01 AM ET, 06/25/2012 |
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Posted at 12:37 PM ET, 06/24/2012
By Jason Samenow
Tropical storm Debby, which formed Saturday afternoon in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is giving forecasters fits about its future course as it drifts northeast at 6 mph and drenches the west coast of Florida. Situated 140 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, the storm’s maximum sustained winds are 60 mph.
By Jason Samenow |
12:37 PM ET, 06/24/2012 |
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Posted at 01:42 PM ET, 06/22/2012
By Jason Samenow
A disorganized weather disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula has better than even chances of becoming Debby, the 4th named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season by Sunday.
By Jason Samenow |
01:42 PM ET, 06/22/2012 |
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Posted at 12:42 PM ET, 06/21/2012
By Don Lipman
Just as the Watergate scandal was unfolding, residents of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast would have to deal with a tropical system that had formed over the Yucatan Peninsula on June 14th. That system, dubbed Agnes, would later cause some of the worst flooding ever recorded in the region’s, particularly Pennsylvania.
By Don Lipman |
12:42 PM ET, 06/21/2012 |
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Posted at 12:08 PM ET, 06/21/2012
By Jason Samenow
Defying the odds, tropical storm Chris intensified over waters usually unfavorable to tropical systems, and has become the first Atlantic hurricane of 2012. It’s positioned 625 miles southeast of Newfoundland, heading northeast at 20 mph and is no threat to land.
By Jason Samenow |
12:08 PM ET, 06/21/2012 |
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Posted at 05:31 PM ET, 06/19/2012
By Jason Samenow
The
National Hurricane Center (NHC) has given a name - Chris - to the low pressure system positioned some 560 miles south-southwest of the Canadian Maritimes. The storm - marginally tropical - has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It is neither a threat to land nor expected to appreciably strengthen.
By Jason Samenow |
05:31 PM ET, 06/19/2012 |
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Posted at 12:44 PM ET, 06/18/2012
By Jason Samenow
Western Pacific typhoon Guchol, with winds to 110 mph - equivalent to a category 3 hurricane - is one day away from crashing into Japan. But by the time it gets there, it’s expected to be a weaker though still formidable storm.
By Jason Samenow |
12:44 PM ET, 06/18/2012 |
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Posted at 12:28 PM ET, 06/15/2012
By Jason Samenow
Tropical storm Carlotta gained hurricane status this morning and is gaining strength in the Eastern Pacific. The category 1 storm has set its sights on the southwest coast of Mexico and may reach category 2 levels before striking land. Hurricane warnings have posted from Salina Cruz to Acapulco.
By Jason Samenow |
12:28 PM ET, 06/15/2012 |
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Posted at 10:47 AM ET, 05/29/2012
By Greg Postel
Former tropical storm Beryl barreled into Atlantic Beach, FL just after midnight Sunday night. With maximum sustained winds at 70 mph, it was the strongest tropical storm on record to make landfall in the U.S. before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
By Greg Postel |
10:47 AM ET, 05/29/2012 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 05/25/2012
By Greg Postel
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure east of the Florida coast for possible development.
By Greg Postel |
02:00 PM ET, 05/25/2012 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 05/21/2012
By Jack Williams
The eastern Pacific hurricane season is well underway with the National Hurricane Center forecasting that Tropical Depression TWO-E should become Tropical Storm Bud later today.
By Jack Williams |
02:00 PM ET, 05/21/2012 |
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Posted at 04:18 PM ET, 05/18/2012
By Jason Samenow
NOAA has named Richard Knabb, the Weather Channel’s tropical weather expert, the next director of the National Hurricane Center. He will start work June 4.
By Jason Samenow |
04:18 PM ET, 05/18/2012 |
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Posted at 11:31 AM ET, 05/09/2012
By Jason Samenow
A model simulated a hurricane off the East Coast more than two weeks from now. Model forecasts that far out are completely unreliable, but might the idea have a little legitimacy? Is there a precedent?
By Jason Samenow |
11:31 AM ET, 05/09/2012 |
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Posted at 11:43 AM ET, 04/26/2012
By Jason Samenow
Two weather forecasting companies have unveiled their predictions for the upcoming hurricane season. The message: this year won’t be as active as the last two years, but get ready anyways...
By Jason Samenow |
11:43 AM ET, 04/26/2012 |
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Posted at 11:55 AM ET, 04/13/2012
By Jason Samenow
Via NOAA: “Irene has been retired from the official list of Atlantic Basin tropical storm names by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) hurricane committee because of the fatalities and damage it caused in August 2011 and will be replaced by Irma.”
By Jason Samenow |
11:55 AM ET, 04/13/2012 |
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Posted at 12:25 PM ET, 04/04/2012
By Jason Samenow
Weather patterns may conspire to produce only the fourth hurricane season since 1995 with below normal activity say two forecasting groups.
By Jason Samenow |
12:25 PM ET, 04/04/2012 |
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Posted at 12:19 PM ET, 02/13/2012
By Jason Samenow
Extremely dangerous cyclone Giovanna, equivalent to a category 4 hurricane, is set to make landfall on the east coast of Madagascar today. The powerful storm contains maximum sustained winds of 145 mph (125 knots) and may produce extensive damage on this island off the southeastern coast of Africa.
By Jason Samenow |
12:19 PM ET, 02/13/2012 |
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Posted at 11:26 AM ET, 02/06/2012
By Jason Samenow
A disturbance with some tropical characteristics formed in the northern Caribbean over the weekend and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to south Florida and the Florida Keys.
By Jason Samenow |
11:26 AM ET, 02/06/2012 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 01/25/2012
By Justin Grieser
A powerful storm, now equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane, has been spinning off the coast of southeast Africa since late last week. Currently packing sustained winds near 138 mph, Tropical Cyclone Funso has brought gusty conditions and flooding rain to coastal regions of Mozambique. Officials are concerned about possible food shortages following the destruction of a major national highway.
By Justin Grieser |
10:30 AM ET, 01/25/2012 |
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Posted at 10:55 AM ET, 12/29/2011
By Justin Grieser
Earlier this week, we looked at the
top five extreme weather events to impact the U.S. this year. Not confined to any particular borders, Mother Nature also brought extreme conditions to other parts of the world in 2011, including deadly storms, flooding and prolonged drought. Globally, extreme weather events were responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, not to mention billions of dollars in damages. Let’s take a look at the top 5 extreme weather events to occur outside the U.S. in 2011.
By Justin Grieser |
10:55 AM ET, 12/29/2011 |
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Posted at 12:25 PM ET, 12/19/2011
By Jason Samenow
On Friday night, the compact but deadly tropical storm Washi swept across the central and southern Philippines killing hundreds and scores remain unaccounted for. Thousands are homeless.
By Jason Samenow |
12:25 PM ET, 12/19/2011 |
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Posted at 04:01 PM ET, 11/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic officially ends November 30. After predictions for a busy season, how did it pan out?
By Jason Samenow |
04:01 PM ET, 11/28/2011 |
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Posted at 10:19 AM ET, 11/22/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hurricane season ends in just over a week, yet one of eastern Pacific’s most intense storms this year swirls over the open ocean. Kenneth strengthened to category 4 intensity this morning, becoming the strongest hurricane on record so late in the season in the eastern north Pacific.
By Jason Samenow |
10:19 AM ET, 11/22/2011 |
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Posted at 12:12 PM ET, 10/27/2011
By Greg Postel
Aircraft reconnaissance, satellite pictures, and radar observations indicate that one-time hurricane Rina continues to weaken. As of 11 a.m., Rina has been downgraded to a tropical storm.
By Greg Postel |
12:12 PM ET, 10/27/2011 |
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Posted at 12:27 PM ET, 10/26/2011
By Jason Samenow
Bearing down on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Hurricane Rina has weakened to a category 1 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center is no longer forecasting intensification and the season’s sixth hurricane has probably just missed becoming the fourth major (category 3 or higher) hurricane.
By Jason Samenow |
12:27 PM ET, 10/26/2011 |
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Posted at 01:16 PM ET, 10/25/2011
By Greg Postel
Hurricane Rina has intensified over the past day, reaching category 2 strength. Aircraft reconnaissance penetrations have recently observed maximum sustained winds near 105 mph (90 knots; pressure 971 mb), just 6 mph shy of category 3 intensity. Positioned about 300 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico, it’s on a slow west-northwest jog at about 3 mph.
By Greg Postel |
01:16 PM ET, 10/25/2011 |
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Posted at 01:21 PM ET, 10/24/2011
By Greg Postel
UPDATE: In less than 24 hours, Rina has rapidly intensified from a tropical depression to a hurricane. FROM EARLIER: The 17th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, tropical storm Rina shows signs of intensifying a little over 100 miles off the coast of Honduras. The successor to hurricane Rita, whose name was retired in 2005, it is moving northwestward at just a few miles per hour.
By Greg Postel |
01:21 PM ET, 10/24/2011 |
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Posted at 02:04 PM ET, 10/17/2011
By Greg Postel
A wet and windy rainstorm will be moving northward along the East Coast this week, giving some highly populated areas from south Florida to Downeast Maine gusty winds and excessive rains.
By Greg Postel |
02:04 PM ET, 10/17/2011 |
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Posted at 02:26 PM ET, 10/11/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hurricane Jova, a powerful category 3 hurricane 24 hours ago, has weakened to category 2 intensity in the hours prior to landfall. Still, the storm threatens to deliver a big blow to the southwest coast of Mexico.
By Jason Samenow |
02:26 PM ET, 10/11/2011 |
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Posted at 01:40 PM ET, 10/10/2011
By Jason Samenow
On a collision course with the west coast of Mexico, major hurricane Jova continues intensifying. Packing sustained winds of 125 mph, the high-end category 3 storm could reach “catastrophic” category 4 levels prior to landfall.
By Jason Samenow |
01:40 PM ET, 10/10/2011 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 10/06/2011
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow
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02:00 PM ET, 10/06/2011 |
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Posted at 11:10 AM ET, 10/06/2011
By Greg Postel
The tropical atmosphere has been unusually biased against Atlantic hurricane development this season. As discussed in our last post, global-scale mechanisms have stacked the odds against it, nudging the general circulation into a regime that has so far been really dry, and really stable for long periods over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. Time and time again, the conditions have been especially unkind to hurricane production. Never before in our records have so few hurricanes (4) developed from so many named systems (16)
By Greg Postel |
11:10 AM ET, 10/06/2011 |
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Posted at 02:40 PM ET, 09/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
Just four days after Typhoon Nesat (locally known as Pedring) ripped across the northern Philippines, a second dangerous typhoon threatens the same region. Intensifying Typhoon Nalgae (locally known as Quiel) is poised to tear through the northern part of Luzon island tonight (Saturday morning and afternoon local time).
By Jason Samenow |
02:40 PM ET, 09/30/2011 |
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Posted at 11:58 AM ET, 09/30/2011
By Greg Postel
Hurricane Ophelia, a mere remnant wave early this week, has made a remarkable recovery, reaching the major category 3 level today. About 620 miles south southeast of Bermuda, its maximum winds are 115 mph. Short term fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next day before a gradual weakening. Its western periphery could just clip Bermuda Saturday, and a tropical storm watch is in effect. Ophelia is one of the 16 named storms (and one additional tropical depression) in this Atlantic hurricane season, the second busiest (to 2005) on record at this point. But in this season’s batch of 16 named storms, there have been only 4 hurricanes, three of which (including Ophelia) have reached major status (category 3 or higher). And Colorado State researcher Brian McNoldy notes this is a record low number of hurricanes for such a larger number of total storms.
By Greg Postel |
11:58 AM ET, 09/30/2011 |
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Posted at 11:17 AM ET, 09/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
Once in a great while, a tropical system rises from the dead. Count tropical storm Ophelia among the resurrected as of this morning. Located 215 miles east of the northern Leeward islands, its maximum sustained winds have grown to 50 mph. It’s currently drifting north-northwest at 3 mph but an increase in forward speed is forecast.
By Jason Samenow |
11:17 AM ET, 09/28/2011 |
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Posted at 01:05 PM ET, 09/27/2011
By Jason Samenow
Typhoon Nesat crashed ashore the northern Philippines last night with peak sustained winds between105-120 mph. The powerful storm killed at least seven people according to reports. The storm made landfall at 4 a.m. local time in the northern provinces of Aurora and Isabela on Luzon Island.
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01:05 PM ET, 09/27/2011 |
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Posted at 01:24 PM ET, 09/21/2011
By Jason Samenow
Tropical storm Ophelia, the Atlantic’s 15th named storm of 2011, formed last night and has slowly intensified over the last 12 hours. Positioned 1245 miles east of the Leeward islands, its maximum sustained winds are 60 mph. Its westward forward speed of 16 mph is forecast to continue for another day before a slight turn to the north.
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01:24 PM ET, 09/21/2011 |
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Posted at 11:05 AM ET, 09/21/2011
By Jason Samenow
Packing sustained winds of 100 mph,equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane, Typhoon Roke made landfall at 1 a.m. EDT or 2 p.m. local time today in Honshu (south central mainland Japan), between the cities of Toyohashi and Hamamatsu, south of Tokyo. Tokyo experienced sustained tropical storm force winds with gusts reaching 83 mph.
By Jason Samenow |
11:05 AM ET, 09/21/2011 |
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Posted at 03:58 PM ET, 09/20/2011
By Greg Postel
For the most part, the skies over the Caribbean and Atlantic Basins are remarkably clear. This is not typical, given that we are still near the most active part of the hurricane season historically (which, according to the chart below, was just over a week ago). There is, however, one notable exception to the current –almost thunderstorm free- quiescence over this sector of the tropical atmosphere. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping an eye on a collection of clouds, identified as AL98, way out in the Atlantic.
By Greg Postel |
03:58 PM ET, 09/20/2011 |
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Posted at 12:53 PM ET, 09/20/2011
By Jason Samenow
Since yesterday, Typhoon Roke has undergone rapid intensification and presents a clear and present danger to large parts of Japan. Maximum sustained winds have increased from 80 to 130 miles per hour in just the last 24 hours. Roke is equivalent to a strong category 3 hurricane.
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12:53 PM ET, 09/20/2011 |
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Posted at 02:39 PM ET, 09/19/2011
By Jason Samenow
Less than two weeks after Typhoon Talas claimed at least 54 lives in Japan, the natural disaster ravaged country braces for Typhoon Roke, about 630 nautical miles southwest of Yokosuka.
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02:39 PM ET, 09/19/2011 |
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Posted at 11:46 AM ET, 09/14/2011
By Greg Postel
The Atlantic hurricane season is not over by a long shot. In fact, we’re in the middle of the most active few weeks of the season historically. However, the tropics seem poised to enter a temporary quiet period once tropical storm Maria becomes part of an extratropical rainstorm over the North Atlantic in a couple days. A spell of inhospitable conditions that will shut down storm development is beginning to temporarily settle over Africa and the Atlantic Basin.
By Greg Postel |
11:46 AM ET, 09/14/2011 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 09/12/2011
By Jason Samenow
Late last week, hurricane Katia split the gap between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda, sparing them high winds and rain, merely pushing ashore high surf. But over the weekend, Katia transitioned from a hurricane into a large, mid-latitude cyclone as it charged across the northern Atlantic. Yesterday and today, it is battering the northern portion of the United Kingdom with damaging winds and flooding rain.
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 09/12/2011 |
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Posted at 02:30 PM ET, 09/08/2011
By Jason Samenow
While the remnants of tropical storm Lee have been flooding the mid-Atlantic and northeast, the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico remain very active with three named storms, tropical storm Maria, hurricane Katia, and tropical storm Nate swirling about.
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02:30 PM ET, 09/08/2011 |
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Posted at 02:33 PM ET, 09/06/2011
By Greg Postel
Category 1 Hurricane Katia has begun the long road to recurvature out to sea. Currently moving northwest at 9 mph roughly 900 miles off of Florida’s east coast, this 115 mph storm should cut between Bermuda and the United States with relatively modest impacts.
By Greg Postel |
02:33 PM ET, 09/06/2011 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 09/06/2011
By Jason Samenow
The rain poured down fast and furiously last night producing 1-2” of rain across the immediate metro region, and up to 2-4” to the west and southwest. The rain, which prompted several flash flood warnings, was just the first of several waves of rainfall likely over the next few days. By the end of the work week, cumulative rainfall totals may reach 3-6” in the immediate metro region, with 4-8” towards the mountains. With in both of these areas, locally higher amounts cannot be ruled out.
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 09/06/2011 |
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Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 09/02/2011
By Greg Postel
After weakening last night to a 70 mph tropical storm, Katia has regained hurricane intensity today with maximum winds of 75 mph. It is moving west-northwest at about 14 mph, and is still roughly 2000 miles from North America. Although it remains likely to turn out to sea late next week, some models are starting to bring Katia a little close to the East Coast for comfort.
By Greg Postel |
12:45 PM ET, 09/02/2011 |
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Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 09/02/2011
By Jason Samenow and Greg Postel
Tropical depression 13 has strengthened and been given the name
tropical storm Lee. Positioned 200 miles southwest of Cameron, La., it has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Tropical storm warnings stretch from Pascaguola, Ms. to Sabine Tx, including New Orleans. The National Hurricane Center warns of “extensive flooding, especially in urban areas.”
By Jason Samenow and Greg Postel |
11:15 AM ET, 09/02/2011 |
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Posted at 12:15 PM ET, 09/01/2011
By Jason Samenow
Still more than a thousand miles east of the Leeward islands, Hurricane Katia continues a steady march towards the western Atlantic. Of more immediate concern, perhaps, is an area of disturbed weather in the east central Gulf of Mexico which could be a massive rainmaker for portions of the U.S. Gulf coast.
By Jason Samenow |
12:15 PM ET, 09/01/2011 |
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Posted at 03:23 PM ET, 08/31/2011
By Jason Samenow
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been promoting the fact it “nailed” hurricane Irene’s track four days out. On both of its home page and Environmental Visualization Laboratory website, it shows an animation demonstrating Irene followed the National Hurricane Center (NHC) track issued at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, August 23. It’s true that NHC correctly predicted Irene’s track at that point in time. But what about subsequent times? What about previous times? And what about its intensity?
By Jason Samenow |
03:23 PM ET, 08/31/2011 |
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Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 08/31/2011
By Greg Postel
Tropical storm Katia, spinning away in the central Atlantic, is quickly closing in on hurricane intensity. And more ominously, the atmosphere across much of the rest of the tropics shows signs of becoming even more fertile.
By Greg Postel |
11:15 AM ET, 08/31/2011 |
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Posted at 02:10 PM ET, 08/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
One week. The largest earthquake in the region in 100+ years. 19 after shocks. Up to a foot of rain. 40-70 mph wind gusts. These images tell the story.
By Jason Samenow |
02:10 PM ET, 08/30/2011 |
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Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 08/30/2011
By Greg Postel
Many of us watched tropical cyclone Irene’s approach with enough anxiety to last a lifetime. After all, a hurricane riding up the East Coast is maybe the nightmare scenario for forecasters, emergency managers, and residents alike. But Irene, thankfully, didn’t quite live up to some of its expectations. Now that we are a couple of days removed from its landfall, everything we learn from this experience need not be a retrospective analysis of how to deal with a potential disaster. It might prove equally rewarding to more closely examine how much of a disaster we were up against in the first place.
By Greg Postel |
12:30 PM ET, 08/30/2011 |
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Posted at 10:40 AM ET, 08/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
A little more than one day after the demise of Irene, forecasters have a new tropical storm to track. Early this morning, tropical storm Katia was born far out in the eastern Atlantic, about 535 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde islands.
By Jason Samenow |
10:40 AM ET, 08/30/2011 |
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Posted at 02:16 PM ET, 08/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
A Category 5 intensity debate is swirling around a category 1 storm: was Irene overhyped by media or were the media prudently sounding the alarm in the spirit of public safety?
By Jason Samenow |
02:16 PM ET, 08/29/2011 |
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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 08/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
Around the Washington, D.C. metro region, Irene behaved largely as predicted (at least by the Capital Weather Gang), raking the I-95 corridor and points east with wind and rain, with steadily diminishing impacts as you headed west towards Loudoun and Frederick county.
By Jason Samenow |
11:30 AM ET, 08/29/2011 |
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Posted at 09:14 AM ET, 08/29/2011
By Kevin Ambrose
The weather setup for Friday’s photo shoot of Irene reminded me of my sunset shoot Isabel in 2003. Both storms were off the coast of North Carolina at the time of the shoots, spinning northwest toward our area. While the weather setup was similar, the cloud bands of the two storms could not have been more different. Isabel had long, well-defined bands of cirrus clouds while Irene had less-defined bands of cirrus, altocumulus, and cumulus clouds. Light, scattered showers accompanied Irene’s outer cloud bands while Isabel’s outer cloud bands were dry. The photo comparison below shows the difference in the outer cloud bands of Irene and Isabel, both photographed a day before the storms impacted our area.
By Kevin Ambrose |
09:14 AM ET, 08/29/2011 |
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Posted at 02:25 PM ET, 08/28/2011
By Andrew Freedman
Although Irene did not prove to be devastating to New York City, the storm packed a solid punch, with wind gusts of hurricane force recorded along the southern coast of Long Island. The storm tested New York’s emergency preparedness, and demonstrated its vulnerability to coastal flooding. However, Irene’s biggest legacy may prove to be damaging inland flooding, with record crests for many waterways predicted during the next 48 hours.
By Andrew Freedman |
02:25 PM ET, 08/28/2011 |
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Posted at 02:30 AM ET, 08/28/2011
By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow
Irene has held its own since making landfall this morning, still holding on as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 80 mph. For the D.C. area, the heaviest rain and strongest winds are yet to come over the next 6-8 hours or so before things start to wind down toward dawn.
By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow |
02:30 AM ET, 08/28/2011 |
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Posted at 06:55 PM ET, 08/27/2011
By Dan Stillman
As we’ve mentioned before, this is not a panic situation as far as the immediate metro area is concerned. However, now is the time to get to where you plan to be for the night, as rain and wind continue to increase from southeast to northwest.
By Dan Stillman |
06:55 PM ET, 08/27/2011 |
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Posted at 12:15 PM ET, 08/27/2011
By Ian Livingston
Hurricane Irene is moving north/northeast through North Carolina on its way to a closer run in with the area. Winds are sustained at 85 mph, and it is expected to remain a hurricane while passing by near the shoreline. Rain that has been creeping northwest through the day will continue to do so as winds pick up. If you must go out, plan on doing it before dark.
By Ian Livingston |
12:15 PM ET, 08/27/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 08/27/2011
By Ian Livingston and Dan Stillman
Ready for Irene? It’s on the way. A chance of morning showers becomes a growing threat of heavy rain squalls and building winds. The worst of it may hold off until evening and then into the overnight when rain continues and is accompanied by sustained winds up to 40 mph or higher. Any last minute preparations should be completed early in the day.
By Ian Livingston and Dan Stillman |
05:00 AM ET, 08/27/2011 |
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Posted at 08:05 PM ET, 08/26/2011
By Steve Tracton and Dan Stillman
Category 2 Hurricane Irene continues making progress to the north/northeast at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain around 100 mph and very little has changed with the storm since earlier today - it hasn’t strengthened, but it’s a very large storm with tropical storm-force winds out to 90 miles from its center. Now, let’s address why the uncertainty in Irene forecasts over the past few days?
By Steve Tracton and Dan Stillman |
08:05 PM ET, 08/26/2011 |
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Posted at 05:08 PM ET, 08/26/2011
By Washington Post editors
Here are tips on preparing for what is shaping up to be a damaging storm.
By Washington Post editors |
05:08 PM ET, 08/26/2011 |
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Posted at 02:37 PM ET, 08/26/2011
By Andrew Freedman
Millions of people from Philadelphia northward to Maine are bracing for what may be their closest encounter with a hurricane since at least 1991.
By Andrew Freedman |
02:37 PM ET, 08/26/2011 |
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Posted at 11:37 AM ET, 08/26/2011
By Greg Postel
Irene remains a category 2 storm, though maximum sustained winds are down a bit, and the National Hurricane Center expects little change before N.C. landfall.
By Greg Postel |
11:37 AM ET, 08/26/2011 |
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Posted at 08:25 AM ET, 08/26/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hurricane Irene is headed up the East Coast - a category 2 storm at 8 a.m. with winds near 110 mph, but capable of strengthening back into category 3 territory - and could spread tropical storm conditions across the D.C. metro area Saturday afternoon into evening. The story is even more troubling for the Eastern Shore, including the Va/Md/De beaches, where destructive winds, flooding rain, widespread power outages and a life-threatening storm surge are possible.
By Jason Samenow |
08:25 AM ET, 08/26/2011 |
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Posted at 11:12 PM ET, 08/25/2011
By Jason Samenow
After its intensity held steady for about a day, Irene is deepening as it pulls away from the northwest Bahamas, on a collision course with the North Carolina Outer Banks. Although its maximum sustained winds of 115 have not (yet) increased, its central pressure has dropped (to 942 mb). Typically, a drop in pressure is followed by an increase in wind speed.
By Jason Samenow |
11:12 PM ET, 08/25/2011 |
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Posted at 05:09 PM ET, 08/25/2011
By Jason Samenow
The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm watch for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point northward and the Tidal Potomac, including Washington, D.C. The National Weather Service in Sterling has extended the tropical storm watch to cover much of the immediate D.C. metro region but it does not include the far western suburbs of Frederick, Loudoun and Fauquier counties.Further east, southeast and northeast, a hurricane watch has been issued from the Virginia/North Carolina border northward to Sandy Hook New Jersey, including Delaware Bay, and the Chesapeake Bay south of Smith point.
By Jason Samenow |
05:09 PM ET, 08/25/2011 |
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Posted at 03:17 PM ET, 08/25/2011
By Jason Samenow
It has become clear that areas from the tidewater of Virginia northeast across the Chesapeake Bay to the Delmarva coast will experience a very serious hurricane in Irene. Ocean City is being evacuated in anticipation. As you go west of the Bay, the impacts from Irene are likely to lessen. Determining exactly where the cutoff occurs is a difficult issue. And, as we’ve been stressing, changes in the storm track can have important changes - shifting major impacts east or west.
By Jason Samenow |
03:17 PM ET, 08/25/2011 |
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Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 08/25/2011
By Kevin Ambrose
While the remnants of tropical systems impact the Washington area frequently, almost every year, it’s fairly uncommon to have a major tropical storm or hurricane directly impact our local region. With that said, the Washington area has experienced a number of damaging hurricanes and tropical storms over the past century. Below is a list of what I consider to be the Washington, D.C. area’s top five most damaging and impactful tropical systems.
By Kevin Ambrose |
12:30 PM ET, 08/25/2011 |
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Posted at 11:16 AM ET, 08/25/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hurricane Irene, 645 miles south of Cape Hatteras, is less than two days away from initiating a devastating blow to a large section of the East Coast. While its intensity has held steady since last night, the risk to much of the eastern seaboard has grown larger as computer models have nudged its track westward, closer to the coast, if not slightly inland. Not only are severe impacts likely for coastal regions from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to New England, but interior sections of the mid-Atlantic, including the Richmond, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Philadelphia may also experience major effects from Irene
By Jason Samenow |
11:16 AM ET, 08/25/2011 |
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Posted at 07:05 PM ET, 08/24/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hitting the southeast Bahamas “hard”, major hurricane Irene is growing in size and strength. A category 3 storm with peak sustained winds of 120 mph, its radius of hurricane force winds have expanded outwards to 60 miles from the center (from 40 miles earlier today). The National Hurricane Center writes the satellite presentation of Irene has “continued to improve” and its pressure has dropped. Intensification to the dangerous category four level is still expected in the next day or two. Importantly, two global forecast models, the European and the NOAA’s “GFS”, have shifted the track slightly westward this afternoon increasing the risk of severe impacts to the coast of the mid-Atlantic and New England. The National Hurricane Center has adjusted its official track slightly westward bringing Irene’s center just east of the North Carolina Outer Banks then almost due northward (paralleling the Delmarva coast) over the east end of Long Island, before crashing it into Rhode Island.
By Jason Samenow |
07:05 PM ET, 08/24/2011 |
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Posted at 03:06 PM ET, 08/24/2011
By Jason Samenow
A couple of possible scenarios both involve rain, wind and flooding; the questions are, how much of each and where?
By Jason Samenow |
03:06 PM ET, 08/24/2011 |
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Posted at 11:29 AM ET, 08/24/2011
By Greg Postel
Swirling through the Bahamas, Hurricane Irene has intensified this morning, reaching major category 3 status, with peak sustained winds of 115 mph. Hurricane warnings continue for all of the Bahamas where 6-12 inches of rain are expected in addition to punishing, hurricane force winds. A potentially devastating storm surge of 7-11 feet is possible in areas with onshore winds near the center of Irene. Irene is headed northwest towards the East Coast, but the latest guidance has continued to trend eastward, more offshore, and a direct strike on North Carolina’s shore, while possible, is not a sure thing. Similarly, a direct hit is still plausible for southern New England, but not a certainty. Irrespective of whether the storm makes a direct hit at particular coastal locations from North Carolina to New England, significant impacts are quite possible including torrential rain, coastal flooding and damaging winds.
By Greg Postel |
11:29 AM ET, 08/24/2011 |
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Posted at 08:27 PM ET, 08/23/2011
By Jason Samenow
Extreme weather events in 2011 in the U.S. have already matched 2008’s record for most billion dollar weather disasters. If history is any indication, Hurricane Irene will become 2011’s 10th such disaster, putting 2011 in first place by itself, with four months still remaining in the calendar year.
By Jason Samenow |
08:27 PM ET, 08/23/2011 |
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Posted at 01:05 PM ET, 08/23/2011
By Jason Samenow
Astronaut Ron Garan, aboard the International Space Station, photographed an image of Hurricane Irene Monday evening. Irene was at Category 1 storm at the time with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Image shown in this post.
By Jason Samenow |
01:05 PM ET, 08/23/2011 |
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Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 08/23/2011
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow
Since yesterday, Hurricane Irene has grown to a Category 2 hurricane, and presently contains maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Situated about 70 miles south of Grand Turk Island, hurricane warnings are in effect for all of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Marching west-northwestward at 12 mph, the storm is very likely to intensify into a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) and head towards the U.S. East Coast, but the exact track and specific impacts remain fuzzy. The latest guidance suggests the storm could remain over the ocean, battering the coast, rather than coming inland.
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow |
11:15 AM ET, 08/23/2011 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 08/22/2011
By Jason Samenow
Computer models continue to advertise the strong possibility that Hurricane Irene will have significant impacts along the East Coast. But what does that mean for us locally here in Washington, D.C.?
By Jason Samenow |
02:00 PM ET, 08/22/2011 |
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Posted at 11:10 AM ET, 08/22/2011
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow
Hurricane Irene continues to intensify as it moves west-northwestward at 13 mph. Currently located 105 miles west-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, hurricane warnings are in effect for the southeast Bahamas, Turks and Caicos islands, and north coast of the Dominican Republic. A hurricane watch is posted for the north coast of Haiti and the central Bahamas. Current model track guidance is nearly unanimous in steering Irene towards the southeast U.S. coast by Friday, with landfall occurring somewhere between central South Carolina and southern North Carolina.
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow |
11:10 AM ET, 08/22/2011 |
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Posted at 03:05 PM ET, 08/19/2011
By Jason Samenow
Tropical depression eight has officially reached tropical storm status, earning the name Harvey this afternoon. Located 285 miles east southeast of Belize City in the western Caribbean, the storm has prompted tropical storm warnings for the Bay Islands of Honduras and the coast of Belize. While Harvey may produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in Central America, interests in the United States are more focused on the trailing disturbance in the central Atlantic, known as 97L.
By Jason Samenow |
03:05 PM ET, 08/19/2011 |
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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 08/17/2011
By Greg Postel
As you may have heard, some of the global weather models are insisting on tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin at some point during the next week. Some bloggers are posting forecasts 240 to 360 hours into the future and anticipating the possibility of a hurricane along at the East Coast at the end of next week. There’s a chance that may happen but model forecasts in that range are little more than fantasy.
By Greg Postel |
10:45 AM ET, 08/17/2011 |
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Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 08/12/2011
By Greg Postel
Peak hurricane season spans mid-August through late October. As we enter this active period, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking four disturbances with potential to develop into tropical cyclones - that is, tropical storms and hurricanes. None represent any near-term landfall threat.
By Greg Postel |
12:00 PM ET, 08/12/2011 |
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Posted at 02:15 PM ET, 08/05/2011
By Jason Samenow
After weakening from a tropical storm to a tropical wave over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, the remnants of Emily have now emerged over the southern Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center says the tropical wave has a 60% chance of regaining tropical storm status. However, little or no impact is expected along the U.S. East Coast.
By Jason Samenow |
02:15 PM ET, 08/05/2011 |
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Posted at 01:45 PM ET, 08/04/2011
By Jason Samenow
Five storms into the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season and with tropical storm Emily bearing down on Haiti, NOAA has upped its prediction for the amount of tropical activity this year. Whereas its outlook issued in late May forecast 12-18 total named storms, it now expects 14-19. And it nudged up its projection for hurricanes to 7-10 from 6-10.
By Jason Samenow |
01:45 PM ET, 08/04/2011 |
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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 08/04/2011
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow
Tropical storm Emily, which has changed little in strength for two days, is closing in on the island of Hispaniola, which encompasses Dominican Republic and Haiti. At 11 a.m., it was positioned 90 miles south of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Heading west northwest at 5 mph, maximum sustained winds are 50 mph.
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow |
11:30 AM ET, 08/04/2011 |
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Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 08/03/2011
By Greg Postel
Tropical storm Emily continues to move westward at 14 mph towards the island of Hispaniola on which lies Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Its current position is 125 miles south of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Maximum sustained winds are estimated by the National Hurricane Center to be near 50 mph, and little strengthening is likely before it encounters Hispaniola this evening
By Greg Postel |
11:15 AM ET, 08/03/2011 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 08/02/2011
By Jason Samenow
Since it formed last night, tropical storm Emily has struggled to get its act together. Positioned 270 miles southeast of San Juan this morning, the storm has “meandered” over the last few hours according to the National Hurricane Center, but is expected to pick up the pace and head west northwest at 12 mph later today. A minimal tropical storm, Emily’s maximum sustained winds are 40 mph.
By Jason Samenow |
01:00 PM ET, 08/02/2011 |
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Posted at 12:10 PM ET, 08/01/2011
By Greg Postel
At 7:30 p.m. this evening, the National Hurricane Center named the disturbance AL91, tropical storm Emily. Emily, with maximum winds of 40 mph, is 350 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west at 17 mph. A
variety of tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for parts of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.
By Greg Postel |
12:10 PM ET, 08/01/2011 |
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Posted at 02:45 PM ET, 07/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
Packing maximum winds of 50 mph, tropical storm Don is closing in on the south Texas coast. As of 2 p.m. eastern, it was 145 southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas headed west northwest at 15 mph. Landfall is projected to occur tonight between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Tropical storm warnings extend from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Matagorda (which is southwest of Galveston). A low end tropical storm, Don is unlikely to produce extensive wind damage. Its rains are sure to benefit the water-deprived state but probably not enough.
By Jason Samenow |
02:45 PM ET, 07/29/2011 |
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Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 07/28/2011
By Greg Postel
Tropical storm Don continues to take aim at the Texas Gulf Coast. It is moving west-northwestward at 12 mph across the Gulf of Mexico and at the current pace will make landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Galveston late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 45 mph. With tropical storm force winds confined to a small area within 60 miles of the center, and a rather disorderly satellite presentation, Don is not a healthy tropical cyclone.
By Greg Postel |
11:15 AM ET, 07/28/2011 |
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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 07/27/2011
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow
With almost half the state of Texas afflicted by exceptional drought, a big dose of tropical rains would provide considerable relief. A fledgling tropical disturbance crossing the Yucatan Channel - if it takes the right track - could wash ashore in the parched state, answering many prayers. Although we expect this system to strengthen into a depression and probably a tropical storm - whose name would be Don, it is unlikely to become a destructive hurricane.
By Greg Postel and Jason Samenow |
11:30 AM ET, 07/27/2011 |
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Posted at 04:50 AM ET, 07/20/2011
By Capital Weather Gang
Hurricane tracking maps, 2011 storm names and more.
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04:50 AM ET, 07/20/2011 |
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Posted at 01:30 PM ET, 07/18/2011
By Greg Postel
Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 50 mph, with some strengthening possible during the next day or so as it moves over warm water (mid-80s) and remains surrounded by relatively weak flow aloft. The official track directs Brett northeastward out to sea, never coming closer to the U.S. mainland than it is right now. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 50 mph, with some strengthening possible during the next day or so as it moves over warm water (mid-80s) and remains surrounded by relatively weak flow aloft. The official track directs Brett northeastward out to sea, never coming closer to the U.S. mainland than it is right now.
By Greg Postel |
01:30 PM ET, 07/18/2011 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 07/15/2011
By Jason Samenow
Typhoon Ma-on, now as strong as a category four hurricane, continues on a path through the western Pacific towards Japan. The storm, located 270 nautical miles south-southeast of Iwo Jima, contains maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph. Currently moving west around 15 mph, track guidance steers Ma-on towards the coast of central Japan Tuesday morning, just southwest of Tokyo.
By Jason Samenow |
01:00 PM ET, 07/15/2011 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 07/13/2011
By Jason Samenow
Still in the midst of its long recovery from the earthquakes and tsunami of early March, Japan must now keep a watchful eye on typhoon Ma-on, rapidly intensifying in the western Pacific. The storm could impact the disaster-ravaged country early next week.
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01:00 PM ET, 07/13/2011 |
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Posted at 03:00 PM ET, 06/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
Finally a little good news for drought-plagued Texas: when tropical storm Arlene struck northeastern Mexico early this morning, it brought ashore vast amounts of deep, tropical moisture. A very large tropical storm, Arlene’s outer rain bands stretched into extreme south Texas, providing desperately needed rain. If only it could have extended its reach into rest of the drought-stricken state, recently declared a disaster area by the U.S. Department of Agriculture...
By Jason Samenow |
03:00 PM ET, 06/30/2011 |
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Posted at 12:20 PM ET, 06/29/2011
By Greg Postel
Tuesday night, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) determined the tropical disturbance spinning up in the Bay of Campeche acquired sufficient organization to be named
Arlene, the first tropical storm of the 2011 season. As of this morning, the storm - located 155 miles east southeast of Tampico, Mexico - had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is projected to make landfall Thursday along the coast of northeastern Mexico about 300 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, where tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are in effect.
By Greg Postel |
12:20 PM ET, 06/29/2011 |
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Posted at 01:15 PM ET, 06/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
Over the last five Atlantic hurricane seasons, tropical storms and hurricanes have had little trouble brewing. In fact, 69 named storms spun up in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, about 35 percent above the long-term average. 34 of those storms grew into hurricanes and 16 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). Yet amazingly, of all those major hurricanes, not one made landfall along the coast of the United States.
By Jason Samenow |
01:15 PM ET, 06/28/2011 |
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Posted at 02:07 PM ET, 06/01/2011
By Jason Samenow
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially began today. The first five named storms - should they form - are Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, and Emily. The start of the season prompted several forecast groups to release updated forecasts for the season while two disturbances with some potential to grow into tropical storms have already developed.
By Jason Samenow |
02:07 PM ET, 06/01/2011 |
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Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 05/19/2011
By Jason Samenow
Joining at least six other research groups (or individuals) predicting a busy Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced it also expects more storms than average in 2011. During the 2011 season, which spans June 1 to November 30, NOAA is forecasting 12-18 tropical storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.
By Jason Samenow |
12:00 PM ET, 05/19/2011 |
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Posted at 11:22 AM ET, 05/09/2011
By Greg Postel
There are some interesting pieces of the hurricane-season puzzle that may soon come into view. Clues may soon be emerging that suggest this year’s dominant steering currents may very well be different than the ones that protected the U.S. coast from landfalls just one year ago.
By Greg Postel |
11:22 AM ET, 05/09/2011 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 04/08/2011
By Jason Samenow
When we published a blog post summarizing Colorado State’s 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Wednesday, I was stunned by the skepticism expressed by readers about the credibility of such outlooks. So I thought it would make sense to take a look at how skillful at how well/poorly CSU’s April outlooks have performed over the years. I found that although they haven’t demonstrated significant skill from a purely statistical standpoint, most years they’ve been on the right track.
By Jason Samenow |
02:00 PM ET, 04/08/2011 |
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Posted at 12:35 PM ET, 04/06/2011
By Greg Postel
Though informative, hurricane season predictions made the spring prior to hurricane season (or before) inherently leave plenty of wiggle room for things to turn out differently than advertised.
By Greg Postel |
12:35 PM ET, 04/06/2011 |
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Posted at 11:26 AM ET, 04/06/2011
By Jason Samenow
The team of hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University announced today that they expect the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season to nearly twice as active as the average season (175 percent of normal). Specifically, they are calling for 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
By Jason Samenow |
11:26 AM ET, 04/06/2011 |
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Posted at 12:10 PM ET, 03/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
Although the Atlantic hurricane season in 2010 tied for the third most active on record, few noticed as storms largely avoided the U.S. mainland. In its preseason outlook released this morning, AccuWeather cautioned that the risk of U.S. landfalling storms is higher during 2011 despite its prediction for fewer storms.
By Jason Samenow |
12:10 PM ET, 03/30/2011 |
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Posted at 06:45 PM ET, 03/17/2011
By Jason Samenow
Earlier in the week, a rare sub-tropical storm formed in the Southern Atlantic off the coast of Brazil. Named Arani, it never threatened land. Arani is just the third storm with tropical characteristics to develop in this region since 2004.
By Jason Samenow |
06:45 PM ET, 03/17/2011 |
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Posted at 10:10 AM ET, 12/03/2010
By Jason Samenow
If you haven't seen it already, check out this awesome satellite loop showing the hyperactive 2010 Atlantic hurricane season in its entirety. I could watch it, and watch it, and watch it...
By Jason Samenow |
10:10 AM ET, 12/03/2010 |
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Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 11/05/2010
By Jason Samenow
Tomas has been steadily intensifying since yesterday morning and reached hurricane status overnight. Its maximum sustained winds are 85 mph as the storm heads north/northeast at 12 mph through Windward Channel connecting the Caribbean and Atlantic between eastern Cuba and western Haiti. Some additional strengthening is possible in the next day as the storm sets its eyes on the southeastern Bahamas where it could peak at Category 2 intensity.
By Jason Samenow |
12:45 PM ET, 11/05/2010 |
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Posted at 02:35 PM ET, 11/02/2010
By Jason Samenow
Tropical storm Tomas - which came perilously close to being sheared apart yesterday - is once again showing signs of life. The hostile upper level winds are relaxing, the storm is over near-record warm water, and it is moving into a moist atmosphere favorable for intensification.
The majority of computer models track Tomas on a collision course with Haiti three to four days from now (Friday and Saturday).
By Jason Samenow |
02:35 PM ET, 11/02/2010 |
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Posted at 12:54 PM ET, 10/30/2010
By Greg Postel
The tropical system now bearing down on the Lesser Antilles, just yesterday identified as 91L (pre-depression stage) by the National Hurricane Center, is now Hurricane Tomas. Its satellite presentation is unmistakable its hurricane characteristics, with very cold (high) cloud tops radiating outward in all directions almost symmetrically.
Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 75 mph, and the storm is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph. The center of Tomas is passing near St. Lucia and St. Vincent this Saturday afternoon (see live radar), where hurricane warnings are in effect, and enter the Caribbean Sea tonight. The National Hurricane Center predicts Tomas will intensify to major (Category 3) hurricane status next week.
By Greg Postel |
12:54 PM ET, 10/30/2010 |
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Posted at 11:40 AM ET, 10/29/2010
By Greg Postel
One, two, three. Count 'em. We have three more tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin to monitor.
But are they really tropical? The two swirlies in the central Atlantic, roughly along the latitudes of Florida - one of which was named Tropical Storm Shary last night - are questionably so.
The system near South America (tagged as 91L by the National Hurricane Center), however, most definitely is. 91L is a large swirling disturbance that moved westward across the tropical Atlantic as an African Easterly Wave (AEW) - a kind of circulation that is generally quite capable of maturing into a tropical cyclone.
By Greg Postel |
11:40 AM ET, 10/29/2010 |
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Posted at 07:30 PM ET, 10/25/2010
By Jason Samenow
Ten hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin this season, but none have made landfall in the U.S. Since 1900 there is no precedent of an Atlantic hurricane season with 10 or more hurricanes where none has struck the U.S. as a hurricane. The five previous seasons with 10 or more hurricanes each had at least two hurricane strikes on the U.S.
By Jason Samenow |
07:30 PM ET, 10/25/2010 |
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Posted at 02:15 PM ET, 10/25/2010
By Greg Postel
After battering Belize with heavy rains and strong winds (measured to around 60 mph), Richard - now a tropical depression - is winding down, with little deep convection remaining. Although Richard's remnants may re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, strong upper level winds are likely to impede any redevelopment.
By Greg Postel |
02:15 PM ET, 10/25/2010 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 10/22/2010
By Jason Samenow
A dangerous tropical cyclone over the northern Indian ocean, Giri, rapidly strengthened overnight before making landfall in Myanmar, also known as Burma, today (Friday). The storm comes two and a half years after Tropical Cyclone Nargis devastated that country, claiming more than 100,000 lives.
The Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center wrote this morning (Friday) that Giri's maximum sustained winds intensified by over 58 mph (50 knots) in 12 hours "indicative of explosive intensification." As of 7 a.m. this morning - just hours prior to landfall - maximum sustained winds were 140 to 155 mph (125-135 knots) with gusts to 190 mph (165 knots) - equivalent to a high end Category 4 hurricane. The storm was merely at category 1 strength yesterday.
By Jason Samenow |
01:00 PM ET, 10/22/2010 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 10/21/2010
By Greg Postel
Welcome the 17th named storm of the 2010 hurricane season: Tropical Storm Richard. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now expects Richard, to become Hurricane Richard by Saturday morning. The storm, about 220 miles southeast of the Cayman Islands, has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is forecast to produce flooding rain of four to eight inches over Jamaica, with amounts up to a foot in the mountainous terrain.
By Greg Postel |
02:00 PM ET, 10/21/2010 |
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Posted at 07:30 PM ET, 10/20/2010
By Greg Postel
After 18 tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and Caribbean Basins this season (of tropical depression strength and stronger) -16 of which were named - the tropics are not done yet.
Though November is just around the corner, and the conditions across these regions are gradually becoming hostile toward tropical cyclone formation, a disturbance south of Cuba (99L) is being monitored for possible development.
By Greg Postel |
07:30 PM ET, 10/20/2010 |
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Posted at 05:00 PM ET, 10/12/2010
By Greg Postel
Hurricane Paula, located about 105 miles southeast of Cozumel Mexico, is the 16th named tropical cyclone of the year. Paula is a low-end Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 10 mph. Hurricane warnings have been posted for much of the Yucatan peninsula including Cancun, Cozumel and points southward.
By Greg Postel |
05:00 PM ET, 10/12/2010 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 10/06/2010
By Don Lipman
Tropical depression (TD17) formed yesterday and could be named tropical storm Otto some time today. Because it contains some characteristics more typical of storms in the mid-latitudes, it is technically a "subtropical" weather system. Maximum sustained winds are around 35 mph, just shy of tropical storm intensity of 39 mph. Track models unanimously sweep TD17 out to sea, so it's no concern to land areas.
Should TD17 evolve into Otto, seasonal tropical storm seasonal forecasters will have remarkably predicted the season's activity. To date this season, the actual number (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes) of storms is closing in on long range predictions (15-16 named storms,7-8 hurricanes).
By Don Lipman |
11:00 AM ET, 10/06/2010 |
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Posted at 06:00 PM ET, 09/29/2010
By Jason Samenow
The bottom line here is that Nicole is dead but the incredible stream of moisture from the tropics that fed Nicole is being funneled into new low pressure that will spread very heavy rain over much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the next couple days.
By Jason Samenow |
06:00 PM ET, 09/29/2010 |
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Posted at 01:30 PM ET, 09/21/2010
By Greg Postel
As the remnants of Igor disintegrate over the North Atlantic, subtle changes in the global weather patterns are now taking place that may well allow a tropical storm or hurricane strike in the U.S. before the month is over.
By Greg Postel |
01:30 PM ET, 09/21/2010 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 09/17/2010
By Jason Samenow
As hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl continue to spin away in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, the view from outer space (shown in the satellite imagery above) reveals their stunning size differences.
By Jason Samenow |
01:00 PM ET, 09/17/2010 |
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Posted at 10:29 AM ET, 09/15/2010
By Capital Weather Gang
With the 2010 season producing tropical cyclones in rapid succession now, the United States coastline continues to remain nearly immune from the realistic threat of a direct hurricane strike. Not a single storm from this year's basket of 13 systems (11 named) has come within 75 miles of our shores at hurricane strength. In fact, only one of those 13 tropical cyclones, tropical storm Bonnie, actually made a U.S. landfall. And that was at minimal tropical storm status (40mph) near Homestead, FL, 27 miles south of Miami on the morning of July 23. One can only hope the steering currents will continue to be so kind.
By Capital Weather Gang |
10:29 AM ET, 09/15/2010 |
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Posted at 02:20 PM ET, 09/02/2010
By Capital Weather Gang
As of 2 p.m., Hurricane Earl's maximum sustained winds have decreased to 125 mph, which now makes it a Category 3 storm (down from 140 mph and Category 4 earlier today). Though continued gradual weakening is anticipated, the National Hurricane Center expects Earl to remain a powerful hurricane as it passes the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
By Capital Weather Gang |
02:20 PM ET, 09/02/2010 |
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Posted at 12:40 PM ET, 09/02/2010
By Capital Weather Gang
Earlier we focused a series of Qs & As on the potential impacts of Earl from the DE/MD/VA beaches and south to the Outer Banks, N.C.. As the Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds continues to advance northward, let's take a look at conditions expected along the coast from Delaware/New Jersey toward points north. We'll start north in New England, which may see the worst impacts of anyone in the Northeast, and then work our way south.
By Capital Weather Gang |
12:40 PM ET, 09/02/2010 |
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Posted at 11:15 PM ET, 09/01/2010
By Jason Samenow
Earl has reached its greatest strength as it starts to turn up the East Coast, but most likely offshore. At 11 p.m., the category 4 hurricane, positioned 520 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. This is a very impressive hurricane as evident in its very symmetrical appearance on satellite imagery and well-defined eye.
By Jason Samenow |
11:15 PM ET, 09/01/2010 |
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Posted at 07:00 PM ET, 09/01/2010
By Capital Weather Gang
Hurricane Earl has again become better organized this afternoon and evening on its path toward the East Coast of the U.S. Earl is expected to fluctuate in intensity over the next 12 hours or so, with some potential additional strengthening possible in the short term. Gradual weakening thereafter is expected as the storm accelerates and swings up the East Coast. Winds now sustained near 135 mph are expected to remain above Category 3 intensity as Earl approaches the NC Outer Banks.
By Capital Weather Gang |
07:00 PM ET, 09/01/2010 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 09/01/2010
By Greg Postel
As of 11 a.m., Earl was positioned 725 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras and is moving northwest at 17 mph. Most computer models continue to indicate Earl will remain offshore though a couple have the center briefly passing over the North Carolina outer banks, where hurricane watches remain in effect. These watches have been extended to cover the VA/MD/DE beaches. Earl's maximum sustained winds are 125 mph, down from 135 mph this yesterday -- making it a Category 3 storm
By Greg Postel |
11:00 AM ET, 09/01/2010 |
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Posted at 05:06 PM ET, 08/31/2010
By Jason Samenow
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
By Jason Samenow |
05:06 PM ET, 08/31/2010 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 08/31/2010
By Greg Postel
Hurricane Earl is a category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 135 mph. Located about 1070 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Earl is moving west-northwest at 14 mph. In its 11 a.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center cautions hurricane watches could be required for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast later today.
By Greg Postel |
11:00 AM ET, 08/31/2010 |
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Posted at 01:35 PM ET, 08/30/2010
By Greg Postel
Hurricane Earl is a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. Located about 1,450 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., Earl is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. The official intensity forecast calls for Earl to strengthen to 145 mph (Category 4) by tomorrow afternoon. Given that the intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones, though improving, are still less than reliable at times, this expectation should be treated with caution.
By Greg Postel |
01:35 PM ET, 08/30/2010 |
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Posted at 02:15 PM ET, 08/23/2010
By Greg Postel
The sixth tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season became tropical storm Danielle late Sunday as the circulation developed a core of sustained winds near the surface greater than 39 mph. Located in the Central Atlantic about 2,800 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville, Fla. (as of midday Monday), Danielle is moving slightly north of due west at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now estimated at 65 mph.
By Greg Postel |
02:15 PM ET, 08/23/2010 |
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Posted at 07:00 PM ET, 08/02/2010
By Greg Postel
Tropical depression four (TD4) formed over the tropical Atlantic near 41W earlier this morning, just as the disturbance developed a closed low-level circulation. No where near land, TD4 is roughly 2600 miles southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Maximum winds in TD4 are estimated at 35 mph and its movement is toward the west-northwest at 16 mph.
By Greg Postel |
07:00 PM ET, 08/02/2010 |
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Posted at 01:30 PM ET, 07/23/2010
By Capital Weather Gang
The tropical disturbance we have been monitoring the past several days (see last blog entry) officially became tropical storm (TS) Bonnie late yesterday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded this system to tropical storm status based on recent evidence of a closed circulation at the surface with winds of 40 mph.
By Capital Weather Gang |
01:30 PM ET, 07/23/2010 |
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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 07/22/2010
By Jason Samenow
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT... THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
By Jason Samenow |
10:00 AM ET, 07/22/2010 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 07/14/2010
By Greg Postel
fter a quick burst of tropical activity just a couple of weeks ago, with Hurricane Alex and Tropical Depression #2 rolling across the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, much drier air has settled in across that region. In fact, recent satellite images across this part of the tropics show hardly any thunderstorm activity at all.
By Greg Postel |
10:30 AM ET, 07/14/2010 |
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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 06/28/2010
By Greg Postel
The most recent measurements noted by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicate that Alex remains at tropical-storm strength with 45 mph winds, 991 mb pressure, and a center fix about 470 miles east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico. Given track projections, interaction with the Gulf oil spill will be reduced, and the U.S. Gulf coast will most likely be spared the worst. But a stiff east or southeast wind across the northeast Gulf might push "weathered" (non-flammable) oil onshore toward the northwest -- towards the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coast. The specific interactions and impacts are difficult to predict, however.
By Greg Postel |
11:30 AM ET, 06/28/2010 |
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Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 06/22/2010
By Greg Postel
Though only 3 weeks old officially, the 2010 hurricane season may soon yield its first tropical cyclone (defined as a tropical depression or stronger).
By Greg Postel |
10:15 AM ET, 06/22/2010 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 09/28/2009
By Ann Posegate
* Fresh, crisp autumn air coming: Full Forecast | NatCast * Hurricane Gloria lashes the coast of New England, 24 years ago. Image courtesy NOAA. Weather - especially severe weather - has a way of teaching us lessons, reminding us of our limitations as humans and stirring our curiosity. Hurricane...
By Ann Posegate |
11:00 AM ET, 09/28/2009 |
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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 09/09/2009
By Ann Posegate
* Showers Stick Around: Full Forecast | NatCast | UnitedCast * Landsat 7 images of Galveston, Texas before (left, 10/12/07) and after (right, 9/28/08) Hurricane Ike ("scarring" depicted by red color enhancement). Image courtesy NASA. One year after the Hurricane Ike's 20-foot storm surge devastated Galveston, Texas, and surrounding areas,...
By Ann Posegate |
10:00 AM ET, 09/09/2009 |
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Posted at 11:25 AM ET, 08/26/2009
By Greg Postel
Impacts on U.S. uncertain; Worst may stay offshore * Our Full Forecast | UnitedCast | Hurricane Tracking Center * Infrared satellite view of Tropical Storm Danny this morning. As of 11 a.m., Danny was about 775 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. Courtesy NOAA. By Greg Postel, Hurricane Expert The...
By Greg Postel |
11:25 AM ET, 08/26/2009 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 08/22/2009
By Capital Weather Gang
* Flash Flood Watch Through Evening | Latest Full Forecast * * SkinsCast, NatCast & UnitedCast | Radar & More: Weather Wall * * Bill's Big Waves | Where's Bill? Hurricane Tracking Center * Satellite image of Hurricane Bill. Courtesy NOAA. By Greg Postel, Hurricane Expert Hurricane Bill continues to...
By Capital Weather Gang |
11:00 AM ET, 08/22/2009 |
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Posted at 05:00 PM ET, 08/16/2009
By Capital Weather Gang
* Hot Start to Week: Full Forecast | Hurricane Tracking Center * * Outside Right Now? Radar, Temps & More: Weather Wall * Satellite image of Tropical Storm Claudette. Courtesy NOAA. By Dr. Greg Postel, Tropical Weather Expert After weeks of inaction, tropical activity in the Atlantic and Gulf of...
By Capital Weather Gang |
05:00 PM ET, 08/16/2009 |
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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 07/08/2009
By Andrew Freedman
* Where's Summer? Full Forecast | Fireworks Photo Spread * The traditional rap on El Nino, the periodic ocean-atmosphere cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean that is infamous for altering weather patterns worldwide, is that it causes a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. For this reason, recent forecasts calling for...
By Andrew Freedman |
10:45 AM ET, 07/08/2009 |
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Posted at 02:05 PM ET, 04/16/2009
By Capital Weather Gang
* Sunny Stretch: Full Forecast | NatCast: A Bit Cool | Maui Photos * Hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1. But April is none too soon to make sure you're ready if you live in a hurricane-prone zone. In the video below, Max Mayfield, former director of the...
By Capital Weather Gang |
02:05 PM ET, 04/16/2009 |
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Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 04/08/2009
By Jason Samenow
* Warmer Tomorrow: Full Forecast | Cherry Blossom Photos * Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane experts Drs. Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray have adjusted their seasonal tropical forecast downward in an update released yesterday: We foresee average activity for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. We have decreased our seasonal forecast...
By Jason Samenow |
12:30 PM ET, 04/08/2009 |
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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 04/03/2009
By Dan Stillman
* Wind & Sun Follow Rain: Full Forecast | Cherry Blossom Coverage * WeatherBug is out with its 2009 hurricane outlook, and it's similar to the one issued in March by AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi. WeatherBug predicts a slightly above-average season with 11 to 13 named storms (a storm is named...
By Dan Stillman |
11:30 AM ET, 04/03/2009 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 03/09/2009
By Ann Posegate
* Trending Cooler: Full Forecast | Dueling Springs | Weather Wall * Hurricane Isabel, 2003. Courtesy NOAA. Here's an interesting analogy: the moon is to hurricanes as snow is to D.C. traffic accidents. Intrigued? After analyzing Atlantic hurricanes that occurred between 1950 and 2007, University of New Orleans professor Peter...
By Ann Posegate |
01:00 PM ET, 03/09/2009 |
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Posted at 07:00 PM ET, 11/05/2008
By Jason Samenow
Last Friday, Dan posted about the status of this year's hurricane season and noted that since 1995, one tropical cyclone (storm or hurricane) has formed in November or December every other year in the Atlantic Basin. Here are some additional November hurricane statistics, courtesy Colorado State hurricane research Phil Klotzbach:...
By Jason Samenow |
07:00 PM ET, 11/05/2008 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 10/31/2008
By Dan Stillman
As far as the United States is concerned, the tropics have been quiet as a mouse since the August-September onslaught of tropical storms Fay and Hanna (briefly a hurricane when it was in the Caribbean) and the devastating duo of hurricanes Gustav and Ike. All four made landfall and headlines...
By Dan Stillman |
11:00 AM ET, 10/31/2008 |
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Posted at 07:00 PM ET, 10/15/2008
By Capital Weather Gang
It's been a while since Washington, D.C., has seen hurricane-force winds -- 54 years ago today, to be exact. That's when Hurricane Hazel made landfall along the South Carolina-North Carolina border as a Category 4 storm and then tracked northward with its center passing just west of the D.C. area....
By Capital Weather Gang |
07:00 PM ET, 10/15/2008 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 10/07/2008
By Jason Samenow
Tiny Tropical Storm Marco yesterday evening. Marco's peak winds reach 65 mph. A welcome calm settled over the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico after the parade of storms in late August through mid-September. But Tropical Storm Marco's emergence in the Bay of Campeche yesterday is a distant...
By Jason Samenow |
10:30 AM ET, 10/07/2008 |
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Posted at 11:20 AM ET, 09/06/2008
By Jason Samenow
*Tropical Storm Warning near and east of I-95.* *Wind Advisory for north and west suburbs until 11 p.m.* *Flash Flood Watch for metro area through this evening* *Flash Flood Warning for Fairfax, Prince William and Stafford Counties* Hanna Live Updates Blog (up to the minute) | Track Hanna | Satellite...
By Jason Samenow |
11:20 AM ET, 09/06/2008 |
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Posted at 04:00 PM ET, 09/01/2008
By Jason Samenow
Satellite image of Gustav (west) and Hanna (east). Courtesy NASA. Gustav Monitoring: Satellite Loop | Radar Loop | Interactive Tracking Map | Live Storm Chasing | Streaming Local News from New Orleans | New Orleans Damage Reports | New Orleans Times-Picayune blog | Eyewitness photos and videos | Capital Weather...
By Jason Samenow |
04:00 PM ET, 09/01/2008 |
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Posted at 11:30 PM ET, 08/31/2008
By Jason Samenow
Gustav satellite image at 11 p.m. Sunday night. Courtesy NASA. Overnight Storm Monitoring: Latest satellite | Latest radar | Interactive Tracking Map The 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center indicates Hurricane Gustav remains a low-end Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 115 mph. Gustav has become somewhat...
By Jason Samenow |
11:30 PM ET, 08/31/2008 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 08/28/2008
By Jason Samenow
Satellite image of tropical storms Gustav (left) and Hanna (right). Courtesy NOAA After taking a serious beating over mountainous Haiti, Gustav has recovered remarkably over the deep, warm waters of the northwest Caribbean. In 12 hours, it has strengthened from minimal tropical storm to near-hurricane intensity. While intensifying, Gustav shifted...
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 08/28/2008 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 08/27/2008
By Jason Samenow
One model projection on August 31, 2008 for Gustav (left, courtesy Penn State). A satellite image of Hurricane Katrina on August 28, 2005 (right, courtesy NASA). For the record, it is much too early to speculate about where Tropical Storm Gustav -- which at 11 a.m. was west of Haiti...
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 08/27/2008 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 08/26/2008
By Jason Samenow
Gustav officially became a hurricane early this morning, and its eye made landfall on the southwest peninsula of Haiti shortly after 1 p.m. At 2 p.m., Gustav was a Category 1 storm with maximum sustained winds near 90 mph. Hype about this storm is already buzzing around the blogosphere... The...
By Jason Samenow |
02:00 PM ET, 08/26/2008 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 08/12/2008
By Jason Samenow
The prognosticators at NOAA and Colorado State University raised projections for tropical storm activity last week, and right on cue, two new disturbances (1 and 2, shown below) may spin into storms in the tropical Atlantic. Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. today....
By Jason Samenow |
10:30 AM ET, 08/12/2008 |
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Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 07/27/2008
By Jason Samenow
*Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8 p.m. for entire metro area. For local weather, see our full forecast and stay tuned for further updates if/as storms develop this afternoon.* By Charlie Wilson, Guest Contributor Image courtesy of the National Weather Service in Brownsville, Tx. As the remnants of Hurricane...
By Jason Samenow |
12:00 PM ET, 07/27/2008 |
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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 07/24/2008
By Jason Samenow
Watch the ferocity of the wind and the rain as Hurricane Dolly strikes South Padre Island, Texas, yesterday in this amateur video (posted to YouTube)....
By Jason Samenow |
10:45 AM ET, 07/24/2008 |
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Posted at 06:00 PM ET, 07/21/2008
By Capital Weather Gang
By Charlie Wilson, Guest Contributor The tropical Atlantic has heated up with two named storms and one that has the potential for development over the next several days. Projected track of Tropical Storm Cristobal. Click to enlarge. Courtesy National Hurricane Center. Close to home, at 5 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm...
By Capital Weather Gang |
06:00 PM ET, 07/21/2008 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 07/19/2008
By Dan Stillman
At 17 days and counting, Bertha is the longest-lived July named storm on record for the Atlantic Ocean (storms are named once they reach tropical storm status). Bertha attained tropical storm status (maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph) on July 3 and hurricane status (maximum sustained winds of...
By Dan Stillman |
11:00 AM ET, 07/19/2008 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 07/09/2008
By Jason Samenow
Twelve years ago to the date, hurricane forecasters were tracking another Bertha, which formed roughly 1,000 miles west of this year's version. But Bertha '96, rather than hooking out to sea like Bertha '08, held a westerly course striking North Carolina before riding up the East Coast. Local author Rick...
By Jason Samenow |
01:00 PM ET, 07/09/2008 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 07/08/2008
By Capital Weather Gang
Satellite image of Hurricane Bertha at sunrise and sunset yesterday. Bertha intensified from a category 1 storm (maximum winds of 75 mph) to category 3 storm (maximum winds of 115 mph) in 12 hours. Imagery courtesy NASA. After explosive development yesterday, Hurricane Bertha is struggling today. Its maximum winds have...
By Capital Weather Gang |
11:00 AM ET, 07/08/2008 |
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Posted at 03:00 PM ET, 07/07/2008
By Capital Weather Gang
5:00 p.m. update: Bertha is officially a major, category three hurricane. 3:00 p.m. update: The latest satellite imagery suggests Bertha has rapidly intensified today and is likely at least at category two intensity. Note the well-defined eye and symmetrical appearance. Hurricane Bertha over the tropical Atlantic (lower right). Image courtesy...
By Capital Weather Gang |
03:00 PM ET, 07/07/2008 |
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Posted at 01:45 PM ET, 06/13/2008
By Steve Tracton
Next up... Bertha All's quiet in the tropics after the season's first named storms, Tropical Storm Arthur in the Atlantic and Tropical Storm Alma in the Pacific, joined forces to produce unprecedented rainfall and disastrous floods in Belize at the beginning of the month, killing at least five people. The...
By Steve Tracton |
01:45 PM ET, 06/13/2008 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 06/11/2008
By Capital Weather Gang
By Charlie Wilson, Guest Writer Satellite image of Agnes hitting the Florida panhandle in 1972. Courtesy NOAA. So far, June has offered more than its share of extreme weather - mainly in the form of heat and severe thunderstorms. But we haven't experienced any tropical storm or hurricane activity. Could...
By Capital Weather Gang |
10:30 AM ET, 06/11/2008 |
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Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 06/07/2008
By Jason Samenow
Severe thunderstorms had been capturing our attention and now it's the heat. Lost in all of this is the fact hurricane season is now one week old. Seasonal forecasters at Colorado State, NOAA, and AccuWeather are all predicting average to above average tropical activity (between 12 and 16 named storms,...
By Jason Samenow |
12:00 PM ET, 06/07/2008 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 04/11/2008
By Jason Samenow
With an infinity pool in the foreground and the Atlantic in the background, meteorologists participate in on-camera interviews on Grand Bahama Island. By Capital Weather Gang's Jason Samenow. Here on Grand Bahama Island, the site of the 12th annual Bahamas Weather Conference, skies are mostly sunny and seas are calm....
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 04/11/2008 |
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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 04/09/2008
By Capital Weather Gang
Capital Weather Gang: Live From the Bahamas Colorado State University hurricane experts William Gray and Phil Klotzbach opened the 2008 Bahamas Weather Conference this morning by issuing their prediction for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. They expect an above-average season, which spans June 1 to Nov. 30, with 15 named...
By Capital Weather Gang |
11:30 AM ET, 04/09/2008 |
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Posted at 04:00 PM ET, 01/26/2008
By Jason Samenow
The Discovery Channel program "Smash Lab" will air a new episode all about hurricanes. The Smash Lab teams test whether a special type of carbon fiber used to reinforce tunnels can also be used to hurricane-proof homes. The episode will air tonight at 10pm, Sunday 1/27 at 10am, and Monday...
By Jason Samenow |
04:00 PM ET, 01/26/2008 |
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Posted at 07:35 PM ET, 01/24/2008
By Steve Scolnik
The Orlando Sentinel reported today: "National Weather Service veteran Bill Read likely to be next hurricane chief." This promises to be the final chapter in one of the more unusual bureaucratic dramas in recent history. If named as the permanent director of the National Hurricane Center near Miami, Read would...
By Steve Scolnik |
07:35 PM ET, 01/24/2008 |
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