Capital Weather Gang - The inside scoop on D.C., Maryland and Virginia weather and beyond from PostWeather

Posted at 10:58 AM ET, 03/18/2013

Early spring snow around Washington, D.C. (PHOTOS)

By Jason Samenow

This morning's brief period of snow behaved as forecast for the most part, with just some conversational flakes inside the beltway that coated car tops, and light accumulations of an inch or so to the west and southwest.

By Jason Samenow | 10:58 AM ET, 03/18/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Photography, Winter Storms | Tags: Latest, Photography, Photos, Winter Storms

Posted at 09:06 PM ET, 03/17/2013

Chance of snow/mix for Monday morning commute; most likely impact west of D.C. Beltway

By Jason Samenow

Cold air has seeped into the region today setting the stage for some messy weather late tonight into Monday morning as a wave of low pressure approaches. West and northwest of the beltway, a light accumulation of snow (one to perhaps two inches) is possible. Little accumulation is expected inside the beltway and to the east and southeast where more of a mix of precipitation is favored

By Jason Samenow | 09:06 PM ET, 03/17/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:02 PM ET, 03/14/2013

Maryland, Virginia winters turn less snowy as New York, Boston enjoy snow bonanza

By Rick Grow

The northern end of the Northeast megalopolis lies in the proverbial sweet spot for snow, as general observations have shown over the years. A closer examination of the historical record reveals not only increases in the seasonal snowfall totals for Boston and New York City, but also unearths this all too predictable truth: Maryland and Virginia winters are becoming less snowy.

By Rick Grow | 01:02 PM ET, 03/14/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, U.S. Weather, Local Climate

Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 03/14/2013

How global warming spoiled the Snowquester

By Jason Samenow

Just a few degrees was the difference between bare ground and a winter wonderland in D.C.’s urban core last week. Would the storm, which was a disappointment to so many Washingtonian snow lovers, have played out differently had it occurred 100 years ago? Historical data say yes.

By Jason Samenow | 09:55 AM ET, 03/14/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Climate Change, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:41 PM ET, 03/12/2013

Storm names: In defense of Snowquester

By Jason Samenow

On March 1, when Capital Weather Gang Twitter follower Phil Yabut suggested “Snowquester” as the name for the potential storm in the D.C. area on March 6, I knew we needed to look no further.

By Jason Samenow | 01:41 PM ET, 03/12/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Media, Capital Weather Gang, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 03/12/2013

Confessions of a winter weather expert

By Wes Junker

I’m a weather weenie. A weather weenie is someone who obsesses about some aspect of weather and, at times, that obsession rules their life. My friend, Bob Hill, describes it as a disease.

By Wes Junker | 10:30 AM ET, 03/12/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Latest, Capital Weather Gang, Humor

Posted at 02:46 PM ET, 03/08/2013

A word of thanks...

By Capital Weather Gang

Suffice to say, Wednesday was not our proudest moment and we took our share of heat for the flawed forecast. Yet, there was also an outpouring of support and constructive comments, and we incredibly value and appreciate this feedback.

By Capital Weather Gang | 02:46 PM ET, 03/08/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Capital Weather Gang

Posted at 11:24 AM ET, 03/08/2013

To be the best in weather forecasting: Why Europe is beating the U.S.

By Richard B. Rood*

As early as 1995, the weather forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were emerging as higher quality than U.S. products.

By Richard B. Rood* | 11:24 AM ET, 03/08/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Science, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:17 AM ET, 03/08/2013

Pasted with snow at the Manassas National Battlefield Park

By Kevin Ambrose

I made the trip to the Manassas National Battlefield park Wednesday to photograph the heavy, wet snowstorm.

By Kevin Ambrose | 10:17 AM ET, 03/08/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Photography, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:28 PM ET, 03/07/2013

Snowquester: The pictures tell its story best

By Rick Grow*

Snowquester, for all its maddening quirks and unfulfilled promises, was quite the photogenic storm. Five different images tell the story of this big snow tease, and make an indelible impression on our collective minds.

By Rick Grow* | 03:28 PM ET, 03/07/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Recaps, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:38 PM ET, 03/07/2013

Snowquester: when forecast information fails

By Jason Samenow

The best forecast for Snowquester was one we could not issue with a straight face, and one most Washingtonians would have ridiculed: Rain, sleet, and/or snow likely — heavy at times — with snow accumulations of 0-14 inches.

By Jason Samenow | 12:38 PM ET, 03/07/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Recaps

Posted at 01:15 PM ET, 03/06/2013

Snowquester under delivers in Washington, D.C., but not done; storm downgraded

By Jason Samenow

In the immediate Washington, D.C. metro area and points east, the snow output of has underperformed. We conceded late this morning that our forecast of 5-10 inches in this area would probably not be achieved, but indicated a few inches remain possible - let’s say 1-4 inches.

By Jason Samenow | 01:15 PM ET, 03/06/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 03/06/2013

Snowquester hitting its stride with heavy snow in western suburbs, but struggling in the city

By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow

Snow and mixed precipitation, in the city and points east, are falling throughout the region. Substantial snow accumulations, thus far, have mainly occurred west and southwest of the Beltway, and it’s those areas likely to reach forecast snow totals of 7-14 inces.

By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow | 11:00 AM ET, 03/06/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:00 AM ET, 03/06/2013

The start of Snowquester: Tuesday night live blog; snowfall forecast increased

By Jason Samenow

The first band of precipitation is moving in from the season’s first major winter storm. Track the latest developments and forecast updates in this live blog.

By Jason Samenow | 01:00 AM ET, 03/06/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:08 PM ET, 03/05/2013

Winter storm warning for District, I-95 corridor, and points west; winter weather advisory east of town

By Jason Samenow

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for Washington, D.C. and locations to the west and north, for the likelihood of at least 4 to 8 inches of snow between midnight tonight and 3 a.m. Thursday morning.

By Jason Samenow | 03:08 PM ET, 03/05/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:24 AM ET, 03/05/2013

High-impact, heavy snowstorm to hammer Washington area tonight and Wednesday

By Jason Samenow

The ingredients have come together for a major snowstorm that may prove crippling for western sections of the Washington region.

By Jason Samenow | 11:24 AM ET, 03/05/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:00 PM ET, 03/04/2013

Snowquester live blog: Tracking the models, March 4 evening edition

By Ian Livingston

Winter storm watches are up across the D.C. area as the storm we’ve dubbed Snowquester closes in. Odds are presently quite good for a heavy late-season snowstorm to paste the region with anywhere from 3-8” along and southeast of I-95, to as much as 15”+ over far western (and higher elevation) portions of our area.

By Ian Livingston | 11:00 PM ET, 03/04/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Capital Weather Gang, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:47 PM ET, 03/04/2013

History as a helper: the past suggests Snowquester storm will pack a punch Wednesday

By Rick Grow*

As the Washington area braces for its biggest snow storm since Commutageddon, a number of similar historical events, or analogs, suggest disruptive accumulations will likely occur from Snowquester

By Rick Grow* | 02:47 PM ET, 03/04/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:55 PM ET, 03/04/2013

Snowquester: heavy, wet late season snowstorm likely to paste D.C., Mid-Atlantic Wednesday

By Jason Samenow

An intense late winter storm marches into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy snow is possible, especially in far western parts of the region.

By Jason Samenow | 01:55 PM ET, 03/04/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 07:15 AM ET, 03/04/2013

Winter storm watch issued for Washington, D.C. area, Tuesday night to Wednesday night

By Jason Samenow

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for the Washington, D.C. metro region from Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening. Such a watch is issued for the potential for at least 5 inches of snow within 36 to 48 hours.

By Jason Samenow | 07:15 AM ET, 03/04/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:05 PM ET, 03/03/2013

Major winter storm eyes Washington, D.C. and Mid-Atlantic for midweek: Snowquester

By Wes Junker

The likelihood of a significant snowfall occurring in the Washington, D.C. region Wednesday is increasing as a very dynamic storm moves in.

By Wes Junker | 02:05 PM ET, 03/03/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:00 PM ET, 03/02/2013

Storm chances up for midweek; precipitation type still a pesky question

By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow

Odds are increasing the Washington, D.C. area will see a period of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday. And if the precipitation is heavy enough, then this looks to be our best chance of significant snow all winter long. However, that is still a big “if.”

By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow | 10:00 PM ET, 03/02/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:44 PM ET, 03/01/2013

Knickerbocker snowstorm presentation: Tuesday, March 12, 2013, 7:00 p.m. at The Washington Post

By Jason Samenow

Come hear the riveting tale of one of Washington, D.C.’s most destructive weather events: the Knickerbocker Snowstorm of January, 1922.

By Jason Samenow | 04:44 PM ET, 03/01/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Capital Weather Gang, History, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:27 PM ET, 03/01/2013

Significant winter storm potential around March 6, but major questions remain

By Wes Junker

This is the best looking snow threat in two years.

By Wes Junker | 01:27 PM ET, 03/01/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:42 PM ET, 02/28/2013

March 6 snow chances sink south

By Jason Samenow

We continue to track the possibility of the development of a coastal storm during the middle of next week which, given cold air in place, could be a snow-producer. However, today’s models track the storm far enough south that the Washington, D.C. area would miss most of the precipitation.

By Jason Samenow | 03:42 PM ET, 02/28/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:09 PM ET, 02/27/2013

March 6: Late game scoring opportunity for snow lovers in Washington, D.C.?

By Jason Samenow

The pattern for next week or so favors cooler than average temperature, which conceivably could set the stage for a snowy rally. But a storm (or two or three) is needed. Enter March 6 - maybe.

By Jason Samenow | 04:09 PM ET, 02/27/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:47 AM ET, 02/22/2013

Huge Midwest storm fizzles before reaching Washington D.C.

By Jason Samenow

We expect little precipitation from the storm which crushed the Midwest with heavy snow

By Jason Samenow | 10:47 AM ET, 02/22/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, U.S. Weather

Posted at 10:32 AM ET, 02/21/2013

Can D.C. dream the impossible dream of breaking the snow drought this winter?

By Ian Livingston

History says we have about a 50-50 chance of getting 2 inches or more snow before winter ends.

By Ian Livingston | 10:32 AM ET, 02/21/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:19 AM ET, 02/20/2013

Does the “less snow, more blizzards” global warming theory hold up in Washington, D.C.?

By Jason Samenow

Does it seem like snowfall is exhibiting manic behavior - lashing out with paralyzing blizzards one winter and retreating with piddling dustings the next?

By Jason Samenow | 11:19 AM ET, 02/20/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Climate Change, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 02/19/2013

Rain favored over snow in storms for next week; a more snow-friendly pattern around March 1?

By Wes Junker

Spring is rapidly approaching and the average temperatures are starting to rise in response to the sun. But could a change in storm track gives increase snow prospects to close February?

By Wes Junker | 11:15 AM ET, 02/19/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:48 PM ET, 02/15/2013

Tonight’s snow odds flaking out; watching Saturday wave for second chance

By Jason Samenow

The weather system passing through the region tonight promises more rain than snow, with accumulation prospects weak. A second wave developing Saturday could put down a stripe of snow, but probably east and northeast of the immediate D.C. area.

By Jason Samenow | 12:48 PM ET, 02/15/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:36 PM ET, 02/14/2013

Friday night could bring round of sneaky snow

By Jason Samenow

A little storminess may develop along a cold front pressing through the region Friday night offering the next opportunity for rain and snow. Some accumulation cannot be ruled out but this is a particularly tricky situation to forecast.

By Jason Samenow | 02:36 PM ET, 02/14/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 09:52 AM ET, 02/14/2013

“Car-topper” snow event leaves glaze of morning ice on some roads

By Jason Samenow

Wednesday evening, from northwest to southeast, rain transitioned to snow before ending around 10 p.m.. Accumulations ranged from a coating on grassy areas and car tops around the District to half an inch to one inch in Loudoun and Frederick counties.

By Jason Samenow | 09:52 AM ET, 02/14/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Recaps, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:16 PM ET, 02/13/2013

Washington, D.C. falling deep into dungeon of snow futility

By Jason Samenow

With 3.5 inches of snow combined in the last two winters, Washington, D.C. will have its least snowiest two year period on record if more accumulating snow doesn’t fall through April.

By Jason Samenow | 01:16 PM ET, 02/13/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Local Climate

Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 02/13/2013

Hurricanes vs. nor’easters. What makes them different?

By Kathryn Prociv

If hurricanes and mid-latitude cyclones often physically resemble each other so closely and are both characterized by areas of low pressure and cyclonic (counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere) winds, what makes them different?

By Kathryn Prociv | 10:30 AM ET, 02/13/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Tropical Weather, Science, Winter Storms

Posted at 09:40 AM ET, 02/12/2013

The Megalopolitan Blizzard of February 10-12, 1983

By Kevin Ambrose

On February 11-12, 1983 a blizzard swept up the Eastern Seaboard, burying an area from Virginia to the Northeast U.S. under a blanket of very heavy snow.

By Kevin Ambrose | 09:40 AM ET, 02/12/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: History, Local Climate, Winter Storms, Latest

Posted at 02:05 PM ET, 02/11/2013

Pre-Valentine’s Day storm looks more wet than white; weekend storm?

By Wes Junker

Could we have a white Valentine’s Day? The odds don’t look so good.

By Wes Junker | 02:05 PM ET, 02/11/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:34 AM ET, 02/11/2013

Incredible imagery from the February 8-9, 2013 New England Blizzard

By Ian Livingston and Kathryn Prociv

The early-February blizzard will go down as one of the largest ever in parts of the northeast. We’ve gathered some of the best satellites, radars and more.

By Ian Livingston and Kathryn Prociv | 10:34 AM ET, 02/11/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Recaps, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:00 PM ET, 02/08/2013

Will Washington, D.C. ever see “real” snow again?

By Jason Samenow

With the Northeast blizzard on center stage, I’m repeatedly getting the question: will it ever snow - more than a dusting - in Washington, D.C. again?

By Jason Samenow | 04:00 PM ET, 02/08/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:36 PM ET, 02/08/2013

Northeast blizzard: The science behind the storm

By Wes Junker

“Phasing streams” will lead to a meteorological bomb that will release vast quantities of snow.

By Wes Junker | 02:36 PM ET, 02/08/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Science, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:01 PM ET, 02/07/2013

New England blizzard: Two feet of snow possible from East Coast bomb, Boston may be ground-zero

By Jason Samenow

Confidence continues to grow that Boston will face a major to historic blizzard Friday into Saturday. New York City may also experience a period of blizzard conditions, but questions remain about how much precipitation falls as snow. Washington, D.C. will likely just get grazed by rain and, perhaps, a little wet snow at the onset.

By Jason Samenow | 12:01 PM ET, 02/07/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:26 PM ET, 02/06/2013

Boston, eastern New England may get blitzed by crippling blizzard Friday into Saturday

By Jason Samenow

A storm moving up the East Coast Friday will explosively strengthen, potentially dumping paralyzing quantities of snow in eastern New England late this week. Questions still linger about exact amounts, but current model simulations suggest totals easily exceeding one feet are a strong possibility.

By Jason Samenow | 02:26 PM ET, 02/06/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:12 PM ET, 02/05/2013

Volatile weather pattern could turn snowier by Valentine’s Day

By Wes Junker

The last several weeks have been a roller coaster ride alternating between cold and warm periods but the cold has yet to produce any significant snowstorms. By around Valentine’s Day, the pattern may become a little more promising for snow lovers.

By Wes Junker | 03:12 PM ET, 02/05/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms | Tags: latest

Posted at 10:25 AM ET, 02/05/2013

Snowmageddon: When three years ago seems like an eternity (VIDEO)

By Jason Samenow

Snowmageddon is entrenched in the memories of those who lived through it. Judging by the number of times I get the question “when is the next big snowstorm coming?”, it seems many are hungry for a repeat.

By Jason Samenow | 10:25 AM ET, 02/05/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Snowmageddon, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:03 PM ET, 02/04/2013

Some snow possible for P.M. commute; Washington, D.C. is dusting central

By Jason Samenow

Late this afternoon, another clipper sweeps into the D.C. area, with areas of snow, starting right around the PM rush hour.

By Jason Samenow | 03:03 PM ET, 02/04/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:12 PM ET, 02/01/2013

The sculptor and the magic snow machine

By Walter Crain

Last Thursday, while most of the Washington, D.C. area awoke to a miserly half inch of snow, I awoke to find 24 inches in my front yard.

By Walter Crain | 12:12 PM ET, 02/01/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Humor

Posted at 10:11 AM ET, 02/01/2013

Clipper drops quick dusting to 1 inch of snow in Washington, D.C. area (PHOTOS)

By Jason Samenow

A fast moving ripple in the atmosphere produced bands of gusty snow showers early this morning. In some places, the wind-whipped snow fell heavily for a brief time, icing over roads.

By Jason Samenow | 10:11 AM ET, 02/01/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Photography | Tags: latest

Posted at 01:40 PM ET, 01/31/2013

Snow hunt: three chances for flurry-fests next 5 days, then milder

By Wes Junker

It’s hard to believe it was over 70 degrees yesterday. A series of clipper systems presents three chances for a little snow between now and Wednesday.

By Wes Junker | 01:40 PM ET, 01/31/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms | Tags: latest

Posted at 03:50 AM ET, 01/28/2013

An icy Monday morning commute? Winter weather advisory posted for D.C. area

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman

A warm front lifts through the region tomorrow and unseasonably mild air is on the way for mid-week. But before the warm air gets here, an area of light rain will fall into a pocket of lingering cold air, creating potentially icy conditions for Monday morning’s rush hour.

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman | 03:50 AM ET, 01/28/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:56 PM ET, 01/24/2013

Light snow on track for Friday afternoon and evening

By Jason Samenow

Examining the latest computer model data this evening, our general ideas about Friday’s snow have not changed. The best bet is around 1 inch of sweepable light snow, coinciding with the afternoon rush hour.

By Jason Samenow | 10:56 PM ET, 01/24/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 09:49 AM ET, 01/24/2013

First widespread snowfall of 2013 in Washington, D.C. (PHOTOS)

By Jason Samenow

For once this 2012-2013 winter season, a snow event behaved as advertised in the Washington, D.C. area - with amounts meeting and, in a few places, exceeding forecasts.

By Jason Samenow | 09:49 AM ET, 01/24/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:40 PM ET, 01/23/2013

Friday’s fickle storm: Will snowflakes fall or fail?

By Jason Samenow

Since early in the week, models have trended drier with the amount of snow forecast for the D.C. area Friday afternoon, with some showing none at all. But, overall, most models simulate a least a little snow for the region and “a little” is what we think is most likely.

By Jason Samenow | 03:40 PM ET, 01/23/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:51 PM ET, 01/23/2013

Fast moving “clipper” may produce dusting to inch of snow overnight; a few AM slick spots possible

By Jason Samenow

A moisture-starved, but energetic ripple in the atmosphere will zip across the Mid-Atlantic tonight, producing areas of snow showers. Given very cold temperatures near 20 degrees, every fluffy flake will stick.

By Jason Samenow | 01:51 PM ET, 01/23/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 09:59 AM ET, 01/23/2013

Nuclear power plant produces snow in southwest Pennsylvania

By Jason Samenow

The hot steam from a nuclear power plant in southwest Pa. interacted with incoming cold air to produce snow.

By Jason Samenow | 09:59 AM ET, 01/23/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Environment, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:57 PM ET, 01/22/2013

Some snow on Friday remains possible and even a dusting late Wednesday night

By Wes Junker

Two possible snow events are on the horizon. The first is a weak disturbance or “clipper” which could bring a dusting as it crosses the area late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. A more significant storm may impact the area during the day on Friday.

By Wes Junker | 01:57 PM ET, 01/22/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:44 PM ET, 01/21/2013

Snow or frozen mix quite possible Friday

By Jason Samenow

By Jason Samenow | 01:44 PM ET, 01/21/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:12 PM ET, 01/18/2013

National Weather Service’s head-scratching Winter Storm Watch for Thursday’s non-storm

By Jason Samenow

The National Weather Service decision to issue the watch, in my view, was flawed. It misled and confused the public, and likley contributed to needless expenditures for salt/chemical treatment of roads.

By Jason Samenow | 12:12 PM ET, 01/18/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Government

Posted at 12:37 PM ET, 01/17/2013

Why today’s storm isn’t a big snow producer for Washington, D.C.

By Jason Samenow

Today’s storm effects in D.C. will bear little resemblance to the paralyzing January 26, 2011 “Commutageddon” event and there are good meteorological reasons for it.

By Jason Samenow | 12:37 PM ET, 01/17/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, History

Posted at 10:18 AM ET, 01/17/2013

Mixed precipitation and wet snow possible later today around D.C., low accumulation chances

By Jason Samenow

Irony: a power-packed storm whitening the landscape of Mississippi and northwest Alabama this morning will struggle to produce meaningful snow in Washington, D.C. today. Our longest period on record without at least 2 inches of snow stands to continue.

By Jason Samenow | 10:18 AM ET, 01/17/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:54 PM ET, 01/16/2013

Thursday snow update: Minor accumulation possible, best chance from D.C. south

By Dan Stillman

After looking at the latest model information, tomorrow’s iffy chances of accumulating snow are still just that.

By Dan Stillman | 10:54 PM ET, 01/16/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:33 PM ET, 01/16/2013

Washington D.C. snow forecast for Thursday, January 17: accumulation map, timeline

By Jason Samenow

A wound-up storm passing to our south combined with some modestly cold air streaming in from the north provides the opportunity for some snow in Washington, D.C. Thursday. The most likely timing for precipitation spans from late morning through early-to-mid evening. The afternoon and evening rush hour *may* be impacted by snow.

By Jason Samenow | 03:33 PM ET, 01/16/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:00 PM ET, 01/10/2013

Snow fences: Do they still serve a purpose?

By Don Lipman

Are these decidedly low-tech, old-fashioned structures still as valuable today?

By Don Lipman | 03:00 PM ET, 01/10/2013 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:30 PM ET, 12/28/2012

Minor snow event likely for D.C. area Saturday morning, coating to a couple inches possible

By Jason Samenow

Since the crippling Commutageddon storm of January 26, 2011 (almost two years ago), snow events in Washington, D.C. area have - without exception - been minor, producing no more than 1-3 inches in the area. Saturday morning brings yet another of these relatively inconsequential opportunities for light snowfall.

By Jason Samenow | 01:30 PM ET, 12/28/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:18 PM ET, 12/26/2012

December 25-26 storm: record Christmas tornado outbreak in South, heavy snow, rain to north

By Jason Samenow

From a record Christmas Day tornado outbreak to today’s heavy snows in the Ohio Valley, interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, the storm coming up the East Coast has left quite a mark.

By Jason Samenow | 04:18 PM ET, 12/26/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms, Thunderstorms

Posted at 03:40 PM ET, 12/24/2012

Update: Light snow, wintry mix moving through Washington, D.C. area Christmas Eve

By Jason Samenow

Radar shows light snow and flurries have advanced into the immediate metro region and our legions of Twitter reporters provide ground truth. Snow is falling throughout northern Virginia, Prince George’s county, and flurries have also been spotted in the District and Bethesda. This activity will continue to advance into our northern suburbs in the next hour.

By Jason Samenow | 03:40 PM ET, 12/24/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:28 AM ET, 12/24/2012

Wintry mix approaching from southwest; some snow may accumulate in colder suburbs

By Jason Samenow

A weak weather system coming up from the southwest has already produced a mix of snow, sleet and rain in central Virginia. This area of mixed precipitation should reach the Washington, D.C. metro area this afternoon.

By Jason Samenow | 10:28 AM ET, 12/24/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 09:41 PM ET, 12/23/2012

Update: Christmas Eve wet snow likely

By Jason Samenow

Conversational “ambiance” snow Christmas Eve? It’s looking more and more likely around the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore regions

By Jason Samenow | 09:41 PM ET, 12/23/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:17 PM ET, 12/23/2012

Stormy but snow hard to come by Christmas week

By Wes Junker

Three rounds of precipitation are on tap for Christmas week but snow may prove to be elusive.

By Wes Junker | 03:17 PM ET, 12/23/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:07 PM ET, 12/22/2012

Update: Christmas Eve and December 26 winter storm threats

By Ian Livingston

The Snow Potential Index returned today, and that means snow chances are on the table again. Just in time the holidays.

By Ian Livingston | 02:07 PM ET, 12/22/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Updates

Posted at 04:13 PM ET, 12/17/2012

White Christmas odds fading, but more winter-like temperatures loom in long range

By Wes Junker

A white Christmas looks unlikely this year and odds are probably below the historical average of 10 percent.

By Wes Junker | 04:13 PM ET, 12/17/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Holidays

Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 12/14/2012

National Weather Service proposes revised language for simplifying winter weather statements

By Jason Samenow

Watch. Warning. Advisory. To weather buffs who have long paid attention to winter weather statements issued by the National Weather Service, these words have a clear and specific meaning. But NWS has found many in the public don’t understand the distinctions between these terms and has developed an alternative approach for communicating winter weather hazards.

By Jason Samenow | 10:30 AM ET, 12/14/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Government, Winter Storms

Posted at 08:02 AM ET, 12/13/2012

The Weather Channel introduces index for rating winter storms

By Jason Samenow

First it gave them names, now it’s assigning them numbers. In its continued aggressive push to help viewers identify and understand storms, the Weather Channel this morning is unveiling a new numeric system for rating the impact of winter storms.

By Jason Samenow | 08:02 AM ET, 12/13/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Media, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:26 AM ET, 11/27/2012

Snow falls mainly at high elevations in western Maryland, southern Pa. (PHOTOS)

By Jason Samenow

As expected, the weak disturbance passing through the region this morning has been a light rain event for the Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metro regions.

By Jason Samenow | 10:26 AM ET, 11/27/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:42 AM ET, 11/23/2012

Winter outlook summary: From D.C. to Boston snowy winter favored by most forecasters

By Jason Samenow

By now, most meteorologists who produce winter outlooks have released them. Along the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston, there’s a common thread: most forecasters are calling for above average snowfall and below average temperatures

By Jason Samenow | 11:42 AM ET, 11/23/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:44 AM ET, 11/21/2012

Leading forecaster Judah Cohen favors harsh winter for Washington, D.C., East Coast

By Jason Samenow

Meet seasonal forecaster Judah Cohen. Cohen relates the amount of snow cover and its rate of advance in Siberia in October to temperatures during winter in North America. The more snow in Siberia and the faster it increases, the colder it’s likely to be in the eastern U.S. This October, snow came down fast and furious in Siberia and, thus, Cohen is bullish about a harsh winter for the eastern U.S.

By Jason Samenow | 10:44 AM ET, 11/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:59 PM ET, 11/20/2012

History does not support a terribly snowy winter in Washington, D.C.

By Wes Junker

Based on limited data, there’s no precedent for a blockbuster snowy winter given predicted conditions this year. But the record offers promise for at least a little snow.

By Wes Junker | 02:59 PM ET, 11/20/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:52 PM ET, 11/15/2012

Winter musings for Washington, D.C.: Evaluating snow prospects

By Wes Junker

Winter is approaching, time to start talking about what might drive the winter pattern to enhance or decrease this winter’s snowfall.

By Wes Junker | 03:52 PM ET, 11/15/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:10 AM ET, 11/13/2012

Winter outlook 2012-13 for Washington, D.C.: near normal cold and snow

By Matt Ross

It is time for our annual winter outlook. The easiest prediction is that it will be colder and snowier than last “non-winter” which had near record seasonal warmth and low snowfall. But we do not expect this to be an epic snowy winter.

By Matt Ross | 10:10 AM ET, 11/13/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Winter Storms, Latest

Posted at 11:52 AM ET, 11/08/2012

NOAA calls off El Niño forecast

By Jason Samenow

So much for having El Niño conditions this winter. NOAA has walked way from its forecast for meaningful warming of the tropical Pacific ocean - which sometimes leads to stormy conditions across the southern U.S. and snowy winters in the Mid-Atlantic.

By Jason Samenow | 11:52 AM ET, 11/08/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Science

Posted at 10:24 AM ET, 11/08/2012

Nor’easter brings record snow to Northeast, 8 days after Superstorm Sandy

By Jason Samenow

The powerful Nor’easter is pulling away from New England, leaving behind record snowfall totals from New Jersey to Maine.

By Jason Samenow | 10:24 AM ET, 11/08/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:03 PM ET, 11/07/2012

Nor’easter photos from snowy New York, New Jersey and Connecticut

By Jason Samenow

Heavy wet snow, wind gusts over 40 mphand high seas are pounding the same regions hit hardest by Sandy last week. See photos in this post.

By Jason Samenow | 04:03 PM ET, 11/07/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:53 PM ET, 11/07/2012

Nor’easter battering Northeast coast one week after Superstorm Sandy

By Jason Samenow

From Delaware to Massachusetts, heavy precipitation, high seas and gusty winds are lashing the coast. From Baltimore to the southwest, impacts from the storm abruptly cutoff.

By Jason Samenow | 01:53 PM ET, 11/07/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:11 AM ET, 11/07/2012

Prospect of snowflakes has declined in Washington, D.C., now just 50/50

By Jason Samenow

The morning models have come in weaker with their simulations for today’s developing Nor’easter. This means for the Washington, D.C. area our chances of seeing much more than conversational snowflakes have dropped. Even areas up towards Baltimore, where winter weather advisories are up, may get fringed by the storm and miss out on accumulating snow.

By Jason Samenow | 11:11 AM ET, 11/07/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:23 PM ET, 11/06/2012

First snowflakes of the season possible in Washington, D.C. Wednesday

By Jason Samenow

The Nor’easter poised to batter coastal areas from the Delmarva to New England may just graze the Washington, D.C. metro region. But with unseasonably cold air in place, any precipitation the storm throws back at us may contain snowflakes.

By Jason Samenow | 03:23 PM ET, 11/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:23 PM ET, 11/05/2012

Storm, flood and high wind watches issued ahead of Nor’easter in Sandy-stricken areas

By Jason Samenow

As two waves in the atmosphere merge off the Mid-Atlantic coast, one from the north and one from the south, a major Nor’easter will rapidly develop Wednesday. High winds, rough seas, and coastal flooding are a threat from the Delmarva Peninsula into New England.

By Jason Samenow | 04:23 PM ET, 11/05/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:27 PM ET, 11/04/2012

Election week Nor’easter to likely pound coastal areas, question marks inland

By Jason Samenow

There is now consensus among computer models that a strong fall Nor’easter will begin forming election night and then move up the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast Wednesday and Thursday.

By Jason Samenow | 02:27 PM ET, 11/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:41 PM ET, 11/03/2012

Midweek Nor’easter poses interior snow, coastal flood risk

By Jason Samenow

There’s reasonable model agreement that low pressure will develop off the Southeast or mid-Atlantic coast late Tuesday and move north, producing a range of effects from the mid-Atlantic to Northeast Wednesday and Thursday.

By Jason Samenow | 02:41 PM ET, 11/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:20 PM ET, 11/02/2012

Nor’easter may bring Sandy-stricken areas rain, coastal flooding next week

By Jason Samenow

Some computer models continue to advertise the possibility of a nor’easter next week which would bring a new round of wind, rain and high seas.

By Jason Samenow | 03:20 PM ET, 11/02/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:10 AM ET, 10/31/2012

From the devastating surge to crippling snow, Hurricane Sandy by the numbers

By Justin Grieser

Superstorm Sandy slowly weakened over land Tuesday, but not before leaving behind a devastating trail of destruction across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Initial estimates suggest the powerful storm has claimed at least 51 lives and caused up to $20 billion in damage.

By Justin Grieser | 11:10 AM ET, 10/31/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Tropical Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:01 PM ET, 10/26/2012

Will Hurricane Sandy produce snow?

By Wes Junker

Hurricane Sandy is likely to be one of those rare tropical beasts that produce snow. In the Mid-Atlantic region, southwest Virginia and West Virginia have the best chance of receiving accumulating snow from this storm.

By Wes Junker | 03:01 PM ET, 10/26/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Tropical Weather, Tropical Weather

Posted at 01:54 PM ET, 10/25/2012

Hurricane Sandy scenarios for Washington, D.C.

By Jason Samenow

It’s becoming increasingly likely Washington, D.C. and the surrounding region will feel effects from Hurricane Sandy. The question becomes: how severe? Scenarios range from a historic storm with widespread damaging winds and flooding to just some blustery showers.

By Jason Samenow | 01:54 PM ET, 10/25/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Tropical Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:57 PM ET, 10/23/2012

Tropical storm Sandy scenarios: Northeast smash or out to sea most likely

By Jason Samenow

Some computer models continue to simulate a crushing storm for early next week near or close to the East Coast. The explosive storm develops as tropical storm (or hurricane) Sandy merges with a powerful cold front charging towards the East Coast late this weekend.

By Jason Samenow | 03:57 PM ET, 10/23/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Tropical Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:23 PM ET, 10/19/2012

Capital Weather Gang gives D.C. Council winter outlook preview

By Jason Samenow

On Monday, the Capital Weather Gang was invited by the D.C. Council to provide testimony about what kind of weather to expect this winter at a hearing on the city’s winter weather readiness. Matt Ross, lead author of Capital Weather Gang’s winter outlook, offered his preliminary thoughts about what to expect.

By Jason Samenow | 12:23 PM ET, 10/19/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:24 PM ET, 10/18/2012

NOAA winter outlook: Big uncertainty due to fickle El Nino

By Jason Samenow

Since the summer, forecasters have called for El Nino to develop this fall, but so far, it has defied such predictions. El Nino’s baffling behavior has left NOAA forecasters scratching their heads and unable to make a solid call about what kind of winter to expect over large parts of the United States.

By Jason Samenow | 12:24 PM ET, 10/18/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: U.S. Weather, Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:18 AM ET, 10/10/2012

Knickerbocker snowstorm: The story of David H. Lyman, Jr. and his family

By Kevin Ambrose

A mystery surrounding the grave of a 17 year-old boy in Congressional Cemetery, killed in the Knickerbocker Theater disaster, prompted me to undertake a long and fascinating research effort to find the boy’s family and uncover what happened to the boy and his family after the collapse of the theater’s roof.

By Kevin Ambrose | 11:18 AM ET, 10/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: History, Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:12 PM ET, 10/03/2012

AccuWeather reiterates: above normal snowfall for Washington D.C. and Baltimore this winter

By Jason Samenow

AccuWeather said it in August and they’re saying it again: The region’s in for a bigger snowfall.

By Jason Samenow | 03:12 PM ET, 10/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Media

Posted at 03:56 PM ET, 10/01/2012

Weekend snow? Doubt it.

By Ian Livingston

CWG | A model has simulated snowfall for this weekend, but the likelihood of flakes falling is slim.

By Ian Livingston | 03:56 PM ET, 10/01/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:30 PM ET, 07/26/2012

Your favorite Knickerbocker snowstorm photo?

By Kevin Ambrose

I am currently working on a Knickerbocker Snowstorm book with Arcadia publishing for their “Images of America” series. I thought I’d poll the readers of the Capital Weather Gang to determine your favorite cover photo.

By Kevin Ambrose | 01:30 PM ET, 07/26/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Latest, Photography, History

Posted at 01:48 PM ET, 04/18/2012

Grading our 2011-2012 winter forecast

By Matt Ross

As always, we grade our winter and summer seasonal outlooks in spring and fall respectively. In short, we did poorly this winter with not much of a silver lining. The major consolation being that we can commiserate with the authors of the other winter outlooks we encountered.

By Matt Ross | 01:48 PM ET, 04/18/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Local Climate, Capital Weather Gang

Posted at 10:08 AM ET, 03/16/2012

Recapping the 2011-12 Snow Potential Index

By Justin Grieser

With D.C.’s first occurrence of three straight 80-degree days in March since 1998, snow is now a distant memory. Capital Weather Gang officially retired Season 2 of the Snow Potential Index (SPI) last Friday, forcing disappointed snow lovers to come to terms with the remarkably warm winter of 2011-2012.

By Justin Grieser | 10:08 AM ET, 03/16/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Local Climate, Winter Storms, Latest

Posted at 10:35 AM ET, 03/05/2012

Super snow band blankets central Virginia

By Jason Samenow

As light snow and flurries - of a conversational nature - fly around parts of the D.C. metro area, a narrow band of heavy snow has set up from just west of Charlottesville to just south of Fredericksburg. A winter storm warning for 4-6” of snow has been posted for that region through 1 p.m. today.

By Jason Samenow | 10:35 AM ET, 03/05/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:03 PM ET, 02/22/2012

March outlook: Warmer than average, low snow chances

By Wes Junker

The warmer than normal winter is expected to continue into at least the first two weeks of March and will probably last through the month. That doesn’t mean there won’t be quick shots of colder than normal weather but that there is unlikely to be sustained cold. And snowstorms will still probably be hard to come by.

By Wes Junker | 12:03 PM ET, 02/22/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Local Climate

Posted at 10:35 AM ET, 02/22/2012

A long, snowy drive south

By Kevin Ambrose

On Monday, I traveled as far as Charlottesville, to Monticello, then I turned around. I stopped a few times to take photos. Some of the photos, I thought, turned out fairly well so I decided I would share them.

By Kevin Ambrose | 10:35 AM ET, 02/22/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Photography, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 02/21/2012

When waiting for snow at home gets old

By Ian Livingston

The forecast for the February 19 storm was not a good one for D.C. snow lovers, unless willing to travel. That’s just what two members of the Capital Weather Gang did, and they managed to find some heavy snow.

By Ian Livingston | 12:30 PM ET, 02/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Photography, Winter Storms, Latest

Posted at 10:26 AM ET, 02/21/2012

How accurately was Sunday’s no show snow predicted?

By Jason Samenow

After a largely snowless season, last week there was considerable build-up for the possibility of snow Sunday. But with the exception of Springfield and points south, there wasn’t even a dusting. Some have questioned whether forecasts were overblown for Sunday’s event. But we want to let the record show our forecast was for little or snow in the immediate metro region, starting Friday night.

By Jason Samenow | 10:26 AM ET, 02/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Recaps

Posted at 02:13 PM ET, 02/19/2012

Update: Still a chance for some “conversational” snow, mainly this evening

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman

Don’t be surprised to see some steady snow, perhaps a coating to an inch in D.C.’s southern suburbs this evening. Around the beltway, I’d expect any flakes to be more conversational, with little or no accumulation. The most likely timing would be between 6 and 10 p.m. tonight. North of town, probably just flurries, if that.

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman | 02:13 PM ET, 02/19/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:18 PM ET, 02/18/2012

Sunday snow chances bleak

By Jason Samenow

It’s desperation time for snow lovers. The latest models have shifted the northern edge of Sunday’s simulated precipitation south and do not indicate any snow for the District. And even snow prospects south of the District are iffy.

By Jason Samenow | 11:18 PM ET, 02/18/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:45 PM ET, 02/18/2012

Sunday snow probably won’t be much, but minor forecast changes still possible

By Dan Stillman

We’ve been highlighting for several days now the significant chance that tomorrow’s storm tracks too far south to deliver much snow to the area, and as of this afternoon that continues to be the case. The models have mostly now locked in on a storm track that would give the D.C. area 1-2” inches of wet snow at most, with no snow (or at least no accumulating snow) a possibility as well, especially from D.C. to the north.

By Dan Stillman | 04:45 PM ET, 02/18/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:10 PM ET, 02/17/2012

Sunday snow chances take a hit

By Jason Samenow

All day long, model guidance has been trending drier and less snowy for Sunday. As icing on the cake, the NAM model - which had been the “snowy” model - simulated no snow for D.C. in its latest run this evening.

By Jason Samenow | 11:10 PM ET, 02/17/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:03 PM ET, 02/17/2012

Inside a nearly impossible winter weather forecast

By Wes Junker

Last night, the models seemed to converging towards a snowy solution. It looked like there was a decent chance of meeting winter storm watch criteria. However, today’s runs paint a different picture as there continues to be model chaos. Even the question of precipitation type has not been completely resolved. The overriding unresolved question is how much snow will the storm produce and if it does now how much will stick. Both these questions are very much up in the air as very small changes in the storm track can make huge differences in the amount of precipitation it produces.

By Wes Junker | 03:03 PM ET, 02/17/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:25 PM ET, 02/17/2012

Sunday snow situation: could be boom or bust

By Jason Samenow

During the day yesterday and last night, it looked like models were coming to consensus that we would get significant precipitation Sunday, and at least some of it in the form of snow. Now, it’s not as clear. As the impressive southern storm moves from the western Gulf of Mexico to the North Carolina coast, precipitation will have a sharp northern cutoff. Whether that cutoff is in D.C. area or southern Pennsylvania will make all the difference with respect to the kind of weather conditions we experience Sunday.

By Jason Samenow | 12:25 PM ET, 02/17/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:07 AM ET, 02/17/2012

Accurately measuring snow: a critical winter weather challenge

By Steve Tracton

Let’s assume there will be measurable snow on the ground by Monday morning. How do we most reliably figure out “how much?”. The answer to the question is not as straight forward as one might think.

By Steve Tracton | 10:07 AM ET, 02/17/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Science, Tracton

Posted at 11:17 PM ET, 02/16/2012

Update: Sunday storm shows increasing snow potential

By Jason Samenow

The models coming in this evening, thus far, have trended colder - which is critical for Sunday’s snow prospects. And while some earlier model runs showed the storm just grazing us, according to this evening’s runs, it now delivers a pretty good blow. So it looks like the necessary moisture and cold air may be coming together for accumulating snow Sunday. But - with the storm still 60-70 hours away - significant fluctuations to the forecast are possible.

By Jason Samenow | 11:17 PM ET, 02/16/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:07 PM ET, 02/15/2012

President’s Day weekend: To storm or not to storm? To snow or not to snow?

By Jason Samenow

The potential exists for a major East Coast storm this weekend, but it’s just as likely the storm passes to our south, harmlessly out to sea. Even if we get a storm, it’s not clear if precipitation would take the form of snow, rain, or some sloppy combination. In other words, right now we have more questions than answer.

By Jason Samenow | 02:07 PM ET, 02/15/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:03 PM ET, 02/14/2012

Another iffy snow threat in the offing

By Wes Junker

Yesterday several computer models suggested there was a chance of a snowstorm Sunday. Now, several of them are backing away from that idea. The most we can now say about this weekend is there is a chance of rain or snow, but it’s even more likely the entire system stays far enough to our south that we remain dry.

By Wes Junker | 02:03 PM ET, 02/14/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 02/14/2012

Sudden graupel and squall Saturday afternoon (PHOTOS AND VIDEOS)

By Kevin Ambrose

You have heard of graupel, right? If it’s not a snowflake, it’s not hail, it’s not sleet, it’s not snow pellets, but it’s white and falls from the sky, then there is a good chance it is graupel. On Saturday afternoon, a squall moved through Manassas, Virginia that produced graupel during its onset.

By Kevin Ambrose | 10:15 AM ET, 02/14/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Photography, Winter Storms, Science

Posted at 03:32 PM ET, 02/13/2012

Are we done with winter weather? Or does weekend snowstorm loom? (POLL)

By Jason Samenow

For about 36 hours, between sunset Saturday and sunrise this morning, it actually looked and felt like winter. We had wind, cold, and even a dusting of the white stuff. But this afternoon, we’ve warmed back up to almost 50 degrees. It’s tempting to say winter is over, but a number of computer models are hinting: hold your horses...

By Jason Samenow | 03:32 PM ET, 02/13/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:12 AM ET, 02/10/2012

Rain/snow mix tonight, gusty snow showers possible late Saturday

By Jason Samenow

Two rounds of wintry weather will visit the region in the next 36 hours. The first, tonight, should be mostly light rain but may put down a little snow in the far northwest suburbs. The second, Saturday afternoon and evening, offers the chance of rain showers changing over to snow showers as temperatures rapidly fall, possibly creating pockets of slick travel Saturday evening.

By Jason Samenow | 11:12 AM ET, 02/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:43 PM ET, 02/09/2012

Another borderline chance of snow Friday night

By Wes Junker

Another tricky winter weather event is on the horizon for Friday night into early Saturday morning. Like so many of the events recently, there are still questions about how much cold air and moisture will be available to the system.

By Wes Junker | 01:43 PM ET, 02/09/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:07 AM ET, 02/09/2012

Without a trace: why no snow in D.C. yesterday?

By Jason Samenow

Our forecast for at least “conversational flakes” around the District yesterday was a bad one. What went wrong?

By Jason Samenow | 10:07 AM ET, 02/09/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Recaps, Winter Storms

Posted at 03:59 PM ET, 02/08/2012

Social media snow reports

By Jason Samenow

Every storm, we get a ton of excellent reports from our readers via Facebook and Twitter. If you’re not following us on those platforms, you should :) Here’s a collection of reports and photos from our followers from throughout this event.

By Jason Samenow | 03:59 PM ET, 02/08/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:58 AM ET, 02/08/2012

Mostly rain in immediate D.C. region, some snow well north and west (LIVE BLOG)

By Jason Samenow

Stay tuned to this live blog for the latest updates on this snow (and rain) event through mid-afternoon.

By Jason Samenow | 11:58 AM ET, 02/08/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:48 AM ET, 02/08/2012

Key points for today’s snow and rain event

By Jason Samenow

Today’s snow event is a minor one and may even be more rain than snow south and east of the District. Nonetheless, the coincidence of the storm’s heaviest precipitation with the afternoon commute may cause some slow going, especially in the colder north and west suburbs.

By Jason Samenow | 10:48 AM ET, 02/08/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:53 PM ET, 02/07/2012

Steadiest snow may coincide with Wednesday PM commute

By Jason Samenow

Based on this evening’s model runs, our forecast for Wednesday’s snow event is on track. The most important point to emphasize is that the “worst” of this event now looks like it will come through during the afternoon and evening rush hour.

By Jason Samenow | 10:53 PM ET, 02/07/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:27 PM ET, 02/07/2012

Light snow likely Wednesday afternoon; could impact PM commute

By Jason Samenow

A weak area of low pressure will drift through the metro region Wednesday afternoon, producing a period of light snow. Temperatures in the immediate metro region will tend to be above freezing, limiting accumulation to primarily grassy areas. The farther north and west you go, the colder it will be, and thus, the more predicted accumulation.

By Jason Samenow | 12:27 PM ET, 02/07/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 02/06/2012

Snowmageddon from space two years ago

By Jason Samenow

Two years ago, Snowmageddon, one of the D.C. area’s biggest snowstorms on record, finally came to a close in the late afternoon. That was after dumping a mind boggling 18-32” of snow over the course of about 30 hours. The storm shut the city down for days and is etched in the memories of all those who lived through it.

By Jason Samenow | 10:15 AM ET, 02/06/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Snowmageddon, Winter Storms, History

Posted at 12:21 PM ET, 02/04/2012

Light rain and snow to taper off overnight

By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow

Remnants of the winter storm that buried the Denver area Thursday night into Friday night are headed toward D.C. The storm, however, is a weaker version of its original self. That combined with recent mild temperatures means much of the precipitation we see will be on the light side and in the form of rain to start. Rain changes to snow north and west of the District, with light accumulations possible, mainly on grassy areas.

By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow | 12:21 PM ET, 02/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:59 AM ET, 02/03/2012

Super Bowl Sunday snow: it’s possible, but probably not consequential

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman

We’ve been watching for several days now the potential for wintry precipitation this weekend. The responsible storm system is on its way to breaking a single storm snowfall record for February around Denver (9” already) but will weaken by the time it reaches the mid-Atlantic. Not to mention, there will be much less cold air to work with.

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman | 11:59 AM ET, 02/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:40 PM ET, 02/02/2012

Big snowstorm targets Denver and central Plains, could it reach Washington, D.C.?

By Jason Samenow

A major winter storm is forecast to blast both Denver and Boulder, Colorado with 10 to 20 inches of snow through Friday. Over the weekend, the storm is forecast to weaken, but some of its remnant moisture may stream into the D.C. metro region. Enough cold air may be in place for the chance of a little snow Saturday night.

By Jason Samenow | 02:40 PM ET, 02/02/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, U.S. Weather, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:00 PM ET, 01/30/2012

A change to colder next week: pattern to improve for getting snow

By Wes Junker

Last week, it looked like February might end up a lot like December and January: warmer than normal, with below average snow. But new data have prompted Wes to revise this outlook a bit colder and snowier. He is now calling for near normal temperatures and snowfall during February.

By Wes Junker | 10:00 PM ET, 01/30/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 08:30 PM ET, 01/26/2012

February outlook: Another warm month with less snow than normal? That’s my guess

By Wes Junker

The complexity of the pattern heading into February extinguishes any chance of a definitive forecast. About the best I can do is a wild guess. So here goes: my guess is that February will probably again feature above average temperatures and below average snowfall.

By Wes Junker | 08:30 PM ET, 01/26/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:47 PM ET, 01/26/2012

Commutageddon: a year later, would the same fiasco repeat?

By Jason Samenow

Exactly one year ago, a powerful winter storm walloped the region at just the wrong time, leading to one of Washington, D.C.’s worst ever evening commutes. A thunderstorm of sleet and then snow overwhelmed the region between 4 and 10 p.m., paralyzing traffic everywhere. Chances are good either you or someone you know waited until it was too late to leave your/their job, and got stuck on area roads for hours.

By Jason Samenow | 01:47 PM ET, 01/26/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, History, Winter Storms, Government

Posted at 12:26 PM ET, 01/21/2012

Icy mix ends but refreeze tonight; snow/ice totals and photos

By Jason Samenow

The first widespread accumulating snow and ice event of the 2011-12 winter is over. Although the mix of precipitation stuck to area roads and created slippery conditions overnight into this morning, major problems were averted as the storm coincided with light traffic volume.

By Jason Samenow | 12:26 PM ET, 01/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Recaps, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:50 AM ET, 01/21/2012

Still near or below freezing most spots, but precipitation pulling away; remain cautious if out

By Ian Livingston and Dan Stillman

Round two of this winter event has largely managed to skirt the immediate D.C. area to the north and to the south. Still, freezing drizzle has led to additional iciness even in places that have not seen sustained freezing rain this morning. Ice accumulation on top of snow and sleet appears to mainly be about a trace to 0.10” locally, with more north and west. Temperatures that are slowly rising are still near or below freezing across most of the area, though they should rise a few degrees heading into or during the afternoon.

By Ian Livingston and Dan Stillman | 10:50 AM ET, 01/21/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Updates, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:19 PM ET, 01/20/2012

Winter weather advisory for entire D.C. metro region, frequently asked questions

By Jason Samenow

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the entire metro region, effective 11 p.m. this evening through 1 p.m. Saturday for snow and ice accumulation.

By Jason Samenow | 01:19 PM ET, 01/20/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:18 AM ET, 01/20/2012

Winter weather mess: snow, sleet, ice overnight into Saturday around Washington, D.C.

By Jason Samenow

Cold, dry Arctic air seeps into the region today while an area of storminess approaches from the southwest. The cold air and storminess collide tonight, delivering a frozen, wintry punch to the metro region

By Jason Samenow | 11:18 AM ET, 01/20/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:34 PM ET, 01/19/2012

Icy weather possible late Friday night into Saturday morning

By Wes Junker

Absent for much of the season, a bout with wintry weather may finally present itself Friday night into Saturday morning.

By Wes Junker | 01:34 PM ET, 01/19/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:46 AM ET, 01/19/2012

Washington D.C.’s top 5 surprise snowstorms

By Kevin Ambrose

If we look back at past decades, a few of the surprise snowstorms were quite large. I have researched the storms and rank the top 5 surprise snowstorms that have struck Washington, D.C. plus an honorable mention.

By Kevin Ambrose | 10:46 AM ET, 01/19/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, History, Local Climate

Posted at 01:23 PM ET, 01/11/2012

Two upcoming chances for light snow: Friday morning and Sunday morning

By Wes Junker

Two minor snow threats may be in the works for this week. The first one is with the strong cold front that will be moving through our region early Friday morning. The second is from a clipper type low that is forecast to track southeast from the Midwest towards our region Sunday morning.

By Wes Junker | 01:23 PM ET, 01/11/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:23 AM ET, 01/11/2012

Running through a winter wonderland at the Manassas Battlefield Park

By Kevin Ambrose

I tried a different type of photo shoot Tuesday morning after our surprise snow event on Monday. I took a pocket camera on a six mile run through the snow-covered Manassas Battlefield to record the wintery scenes and beautiful setting of the park.

By Kevin Ambrose | 11:23 AM ET, 01/11/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Photography, Winter Storms

Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 01/10/2012

The overachieving snowfall of January 9, 2012

By Jason Samenow

What was predicted to be a non-accumulating mix of snow, sleet and light rain turned into a surprising mostly snow event Monday, producing a trace to two inches across the region. Officially, National Airport received 0.6”, Dulles 0.5” and BWI airport 0.4”.

By Jason Samenow | 09:55 AM ET, 01/10/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Local Climate, Latest, Recaps, Winter Storms

Posted at 04:55 AM ET, 01/07/2012

A pattern change, probably yes, but what it means for D.C. uncertain

By Wes Junker

Several meteorologists have been alluding to a potential pattern change that would flip our weather conditions from unseasonably mild to more persistent cold. I also think that there will be a pattern change but not as radical as some may lead you to believe.

By Wes Junker | 04:55 AM ET, 01/07/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:35 PM ET, 01/05/2012

Missing snow? Make your own ...

By Eric Peterson

Weather Watcher Eric Peterson did what nature didn’t yet this winter: Make his yard a white wonderland.

By Eric Peterson | 02:35 PM ET, 01/05/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Latest, Science, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:42 PM ET, 01/04/2012

Small chance of light snow or flurries this afternoon and tonight

By Jason Samenow

Two upper level disturbances swinging through the region may generate light snow showers this afternoon and overnight.

By Jason Samenow | 01:42 PM ET, 01/04/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:47 AM ET, 01/03/2012

Lake effect “snow streamer” dusts northern suburbs; more possible this afternoon

By Jason Samenow

Strong flow from the northwest over Lake Erie has produced lake enhanced snow showers that have reached as far southeast as northern Anne Arundel and Prince George’s county.

By Jason Samenow | 11:47 AM ET, 01/03/2012 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:36 PM ET, 12/28/2011

January weather outlook: warmer than average, below average snow

By Wes Junker

What does a winter weather expert do when there is no winter weather to forecast? I issue an outlook for the upcoming month.

By Wes Junker | 02:36 PM ET, 12/28/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:46 PM ET, 12/21/2011

Christmas snow? Probably no!

By Wes Junker

A few media outlets have started hyping the potential for a snowstorm either on Christmas eve or Christmas day. The Capital Weather Gang disagrees.

By Wes Junker | 02:46 PM ET, 12/21/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:35 PM ET, 12/15/2011

Two devastating graphs for D.C. snow lovers

By Jason Samenow

Data plotted on two graphs paints a pathetic picture for Washington, D.C. snow lovers this winter.

By Jason Samenow | 02:35 PM ET, 12/15/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Media, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:48 PM ET, 12/13/2011

What about Santa, the elves, and snow? Assessing white Christmas odds in Washington, D.C.

By Wes Junker

Santa and his elves have commissioned the Capital Weather Gang to take an early look at the snow potential for the week leading up to Christmas in Washington, D.C.

By Wes Junker | 12:48 PM ET, 12/13/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Local Climate, Holidays, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:52 AM ET, 12/08/2011

The record breaking rain storm of December 7, 2011

By Jason Samenow

Wednesday’s storm had it all: heavy mountain snow, raging wind, and severe thunderstorms in the Virginia Tidewater and southern Maryland. But it was truly exceptional as a rain-producer, and the wettest day Washington, D.C. has ever experienced during the cold season spanning November to March.

By Jason Samenow | 10:52 AM ET, 12/08/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Local Climate, Latest, Recaps, Floods, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:39 AM ET, 12/07/2011

Accumulation map, timeline, FAQs for minor snow event, significant rainfall

By Jason Samenow

Let’s get real folks: this storm is more about the rain than it is about the snow.

By Jason Samenow | 10:39 AM ET, 12/07/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 12/06/2011

Heavy rain to likely end as snow Wednesday night; sloppy accumulations far N & W suburbs possible

By Wes Junker

The snow threat remains for Wednesday night but, for most of the region, the event will probably be a minor one.

By Wes Junker | 02:00 PM ET, 12/06/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:04 PM ET, 12/06/2011

Wednesday night snow potential: other view points

By Jason Samenow

Meteorologists and media outlets have been posting their thoughts on Wednesday night’s snow potential, so I thought I’d pull them together and offer some commentary.

By Jason Samenow | 01:04 PM ET, 12/06/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Media, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:12 PM ET, 12/05/2011

Snow is possible early Thursday morning

By Wes Junker

There is potential for snow in the Washington area early Thursday morning but the forecast is cloaked in uncertainty.

By Wes Junker | 02:12 PM ET, 12/05/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 12/05/2011

AccuWeather, WeatherBug, ABC7 update winter outlooks

By Jason Samenow

Capital Weather Gang released its winter outlook in early November, and Thursday winter weather expert Wes Junker updated our outlook for December. In short, for the winter we’re predicting near to slightly below normal snowfall and near normal temperatures. Over the last few days, several other outlets have tweaked their outlooks, which more or less continue to be consistent with our outlook predictions.

By Jason Samenow | 01:00 PM ET, 12/05/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Media

Posted at 10:54 AM ET, 12/01/2011

December outlook: below average snow likely

By Wes Junker

The start of December is upon us and it’s time to start sniffing for snow.

By Wes Junker | 10:54 AM ET, 12/01/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:32 PM ET, 11/30/2011

Return of the Snow Potential Index

By Jason Samenow

With the start of December, Capital Weather Gang’s Snow Potential Index will return.

By Jason Samenow | 02:32 PM ET, 11/30/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:11 AM ET, 11/30/2011

The Siberia to East Coast snow connection

By Jason Samenow

In Tuesday’s Washington Post print edition, CWG’s Andrew Freedman profiles the work of Judah Cohen, Ph.D., principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (a Verisk Analytics company) who has studied linkages between fall Eurasian snow cover and East Coast winter weather. The article begins: According to new research, Washingtonians shouldn’t blame bad luck for the recent string of high-impact snowstorms, from “Snowmaggedon” two years ago to last January’s “Commuteageddon.” Instead, it may be more justified to cast a suspicious gaze toward Siberia, about 6,000 miles away.

By Jason Samenow | 10:11 AM ET, 11/30/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Science, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:44 PM ET, 11/29/2011

Why are snowstorm forecasts sometimes so wrong? Part two

By Wes Junker

Last week, I discussed several of the challenges in making a snowstorm forecast. They include: 1) many of the physical processes that govern the atmosphere act non-linearly, 2) uncertainty about the initial state of the atmosphere, 3) certain part of a model’s physics have to be approximateds. Today, I’ll walk you through the additional three factors which can lead to bad forecasts

By Wes Junker | 01:44 PM ET, 11/29/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:06 AM ET, 11/23/2011

Why are snowstorm forecasts sometimes so wrong? Part one

By Wes Junker

Almost every year, at least one snow forecast ends up busting in our region. Many readers probably remember last year’s December 26 bust (when we called for 3-6” of snow, and little fell). The fall-out elicited remarks like “weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 90 percent of the time and still keep your job.” While that’s a huge overstatement about the state of weather forecasting, it certainly captures the frustration that many feel when a forecast fails. This article will attempt to explain why the forecasting a snowstorm is so difficult and why meteorologists often equivocate when discussing a storm’s potential. This is part one in a two part series.

By Wes Junker | 11:06 AM ET, 11/23/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:38 PM ET, 11/16/2011

TV forecasters draw similar conclusions for the upcoming winter

By Jason Samenow

NBC4’s chief meteorologist Doug Kammerer was the latest of local television prognosticators to issue a winter outlook last night. His conclusion: about the same as everyone else - normal to below normal snowfall is most likely across the region.

By Jason Samenow | 12:38 PM ET, 11/16/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:51 AM ET, 11/03/2011

Washington D.C. winter weather forecast 2011-2012: average temperatures, more snow than last winter

By Matt Ross

For snow lovers hoping for a repeat of the epic 2009-10 winter, you will probably be disappointed. This winter is much more likely to be similar to last winter, when 10.1” fell, than the record-setting 56.1” of 2009-10. But we don’t imagine this winter will be a dud either. It’s unlikely to be as cold as last winter, but we are not favoring a warm winter either. Furthermore, we have a good chance of matching or exceeding the snow totals of last winter at all three airports.

By Matt Ross | 10:51 AM ET, 11/03/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Capital Weather Gang

Posted at 01:13 PM ET, 11/02/2011

Contest: How much snow will fall this winter?

By Jason Samenow

Tomorrow, Capital Weather Gang will release its 2011-2012 winter outlook. Before we let you in our predictions for winter, we want to give you an opportunity to make a forecast. So tell us, to the nearest tenth of an inch, how much snow will fall this winter at Reagan National Airport?

By Jason Samenow | 01:13 PM ET, 11/02/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Capital Weather Gang, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:23 AM ET, 11/02/2011

Do October and November snow signal a snowy winter?

By Don Lipman

OK, so we had some snow in parts of our area last month (just a trace at Reagan National and .6 of an inch at Dulles), now that it’s November, we could have some more. Time will tell. (I don’t do the forecasting on this blog.) But what does October snow mean, if anything, for the rest of the winter as a whole? Curiosity got the best of me and, although it’s been done many times before, I decided to do some of my own research.

By Don Lipman | 11:23 AM ET, 11/02/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Local Climate, Lipman

Posted at 06:48 PM ET, 11/01/2011

How well did we predict Snowtober?

By Jason Samenow

When we planned the release of our winter outlook for the first week of November, little did we know the season’s first winter storm would occur before then! To sum up our forecasting performance for Snowtober (October 29), we were overly skeptical of a snow event prior to two days before the storm struck, but did a very good job of forecasting the storm within 48 hours.

By Jason Samenow | 06:48 PM ET, 11/01/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, Weather Checker

Posted at 11:39 AM ET, 11/01/2011

Global warming and extreme weather: Northeast heavy precipitation spiking in winter

By Jason Samenow

Was the weekend’s “epic” storm in the Northeast part of a long-term trend? It’s certainly not inconsistent with the region’s experience in recent years. Data from the National Climatic Data Center indicate heavy cold season (October to March) precipitation events are intensifying.

By Jason Samenow | 11:39 AM ET, 11/01/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Climate Change, Winter Storms, U.S. Weather

Posted at 03:15 PM ET, 10/31/2011

Readers, Capital Weather Watchers document rare October snow

By Jason Samenow

Who knew the first opportunity to enlist our readers and newly minted Capital Weather Watchers to document the season’s first snowfall would come before Halloween? Throughout the storm, we received a constant stream of reports as well as multimedia to ground truth what was happening throughout the region. Thanks to these reports, we were able to keep everyone informed about who was getting rain, sleet, and snow, and how much. Suffice to say, our community of readers provided incredibly useful, entertaining, and visually stunning content. Thanks so much! And enjoy the imagery in this post!

By Jason Samenow | 03:15 PM ET, 10/31/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Photography, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:02 AM ET, 10/31/2011

Historic October Northeast storm: Epic. Incredible. Downright ridiculous.

By Andrew Freedman

Epic. Incredible. Downright ridiculous. These words best describe the historic snowstorm that delivered a crippling wallop to parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the weekend. Widely referred to by its social media moniker, “Snowtober,” the storm smashed records that had stood since the beginning of the reliable instrument record in the late 1800s (and in some cases, even longer than that), and upended assumptions about what a fall nor’easter can do. The heavy, wet snow pasted onto trees still bearing foliage in many areas, weighed down power lines and caused more than three million power outages.

By Andrew Freedman | 11:02 AM ET, 10/31/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms, U.S. Weather, Freedman

Posted at 06:15 PM ET, 10/29/2011

Rare October snow tapers; freeze tonight

By Jason Samenow

Snow and mixed precipitation have largely tapered off across the region. Temperatures tonight will get quite cold, ranging from the mid-20s in some the coldest suburbs to the low 30s downtown - ending the growing season across much of the region. Sunday is sunny but brisk, with highs only 45-50.

By Jason Samenow | 06:15 PM ET, 10/29/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Forecasts, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:55 PM ET, 10/28/2011

Nor’easter poses big snow, power outage risk to interior mid-Atlantic and Northeast

By Jason Samenow

A powerful fall storm, more characteristic of winter, promises to bring a large swath of heavy snow for interior sections of the mid-Atlantic, and locations just west of I-95 in New England. According to NOAA, 25 million people are under winter storm watches.

By Jason Samenow | 01:55 PM ET, 10/28/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: U.S. Weather, Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:43 AM ET, 10/28/2011

Rare October snow likely for D.C.’s north and west suburbs

By Jason Samenow

A rapidly developing, intense East Coast storm will bring unseasonably cold temperatures and heavy precipitation to the entire metro region Friday night and Saturday. For the immediate metro region, rain is likely to be the predominant precipitation type, but snow may begin to mix with the rain late Saturday morning and possibly change to snow briefly during the afternoon. Accumulation is unlikely but cannot be ruled out. Towards western Montgomery, Frederick and Loudoun counties, a changeover to snow is more likely to occur and occur earlier, with the potential for some accumulation, especially at higher elevations.

By Jason Samenow | 11:43 AM ET, 10/28/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 06:50 PM ET, 10/27/2011

The low odds, high impact October snow scenario

By Jason Samenow

I debated even posting this, but if I have information, why hide it? The latest North American Model (NAM) pastes the D.C. metro region with an unprecendented late October snow event. Ready for this? It simulates 4-8” of heavy, wet snow Saturday. Caution: this model has been wildly inconsistent and had the storm out to sea as of this morning, so take it with a huge grain of salt.

By Jason Samenow | 06:50 PM ET, 10/27/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:30 PM ET, 10/27/2011

Saturday storm analysis: will cold rain change to snow?

By Wes Junker

The odds of a highly unusual, though not unheard of, period of October snow have increased for northern and western parts of the D.C. region on Saturday. Yesterday, Jason outlined what ingredients were needed to get accumulating snow in the Washington area during October . The majority of computer models are now showing more of those ingredients than yesterday.

By Wes Junker | 02:30 PM ET, 10/27/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:55 PM ET, 10/26/2011

Saturday snow chance remains longshot; freezing temperatures possible Saturday night

By Jason Samenow

The latest computer models continue to suggest the odds of seeing snow Saturday morning in the Washington metro region are small, but not non-existent especially in outlying western areas. A cold, light rain remains the most likely scenario and it’s still possible much of the precipitation misses to our east, and it’s dry. Perhaps of greater significance, many locations may experience their first freeze Saturday night.

By Jason Samenow | 02:55 PM ET, 10/26/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 02:35 PM ET, 10/25/2011

How likely is snow Saturday in the D.C. metro region?

By Wes Junker

Over the past couple of days, the European weather model (ECMWF) has been advertising the potential for snow in the Washington area Saturday, especially for areas west of the city with elevation. As Ian Livingston noted , accumulating snow is extremely rare in Washington during October. It has only been recorded five times in a total of 4,340 days. Because of its rarity, any model forecast of snow should be looked at with some skepticism, especially when the forecast is a projection that is four days from now.

By Wes Junker | 02:35 PM ET, 10/25/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:25 AM ET, 10/11/2011

Low solar activity linked to harsh winters in U.S. and northern Europe

By Jason Samenow

A new study published in Nature Geosciences presents new support for the idea that when the sun’s intensity weakens, it favors weather patterns conducive to cold and snow over large parts of the U.S. and northern Europe.

By Jason Samenow | 11:25 AM ET, 10/11/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Science, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:16 AM ET, 10/05/2011

AccuWeather: Expect second straight “brutal” winter in US north; slightly above normal snow, average temps in D.C.

By Jason Samenow

AccuWeather says local weather will start cold and snowy but turn mild in 2012, while many areas north will get hammered.

By Jason Samenow | 11:16 AM ET, 10/05/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Latest

Posted at 02:13 PM ET, 09/29/2011

Snowflakes possible in nearby mountains Saturday

By Jason Samenow

A major fall cold front will send temperatures tumbling Friday night. And as a cold pool of air aloft flows across the elevated terrain to our west, yes, some snowflakes may fly between late Friday night and Sunday morning.

By Jason Samenow | 02:13 PM ET, 09/29/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 01:59 PM ET, 09/22/2011

Farmers’ Almanac: Prepare for “wet, wild winter”

By Jason Samenow

Get ready for a winter of “clime and punishment” says the Farmer’s Almanac. From frigid conditions in the northern tier of the U.S. to very wet and stormy conditions in the East, it predicts the upcoming winter will be an “unusually” tough one. But should we put much stock in this outlook? I’d say just a very little, and will explain.

By Jason Samenow | 01:59 PM ET, 09/22/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Winter Storms

Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 08/10/2011

AccuWeather’s Margusity takes early look at winter

By Jason Samenow

The low this morning in Embarrass (yes - that’s the town’s name), Minnesota dipped to 36 chilly degrees - a sure sign autumn is right around the corner. And some folks are already thinking ahead to winter. Take AccuWeather’s Henry Margusity, who unveiled his preliminary ideas about the coming cold season yesterday.

By Jason Samenow | 12:45 PM ET, 08/10/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Capital Weather Gang, Latest

Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 05/18/2011

Gasp! No more snow days?

By Jason Samenow

The Associated Press is reporting the internet may allow schools to remain open for business - in a virtual sense - even during crippling snowstorms. Mark me down as against this. Aren’t snow days a rite of passage during childhood school years?

By Jason Samenow | 12:30 PM ET, 05/18/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Latest, Humor

Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 04/14/2011

Grading our 2010-2011 Winter Outlook

By Matt Ross

By Matt Ross | 10:45 AM ET, 04/14/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Capital Weather Gang, Winter Storms, Local Climate, Latest

Posted at 01:46 PM ET, 03/29/2011

Late week snow for mid-Atlantic and Northeast?

By Jason Samenow

The hype is building as one of the primary computer models forecasters rely on is advertising the potential for snow, and maybe lots of it, in parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England for the second half of the work week.

By Jason Samenow | 01:46 PM ET, 03/29/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Latest

Posted at 10:35 PM ET, 03/26/2011

Light snow accumulations from spring storm

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman

Winter weather has decided to stretch itself out into spring and so we now await at least one more opportunity to whiten the ground late tonight through Sunday morning.

By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman | 10:35 PM ET, 03/26/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Forecasts, Winter Storms

Posted at 06:15 PM ET, 03/24/2011

Image of day: Sunday snow summary

By Jason Samenow

We’ve been talking about the chance of snow Sunday since Tuesday, but just today started to talk about amounts. Generally speaking, we’re thinking a dusting to an inch is the best bet. However, some of the model data and NOAA assessments indicate more is possible. So I thought I’d share them so everyone can understand the full suite of possibilities.

By Jason Samenow | 06:15 PM ET, 03/24/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms

Posted at 06:40 PM ET, 03/07/2011

My perceptions of winter, a review: Part III

By Wes Junker

This is the third part of my review of winter, covering February. On the heels of our Commutageddon forecasting triumph came the Midwest blizzard that crippled Chicago. That storm did not have much of an impact on our area. We next started looking at a storm that would ultimately give the area a dusting to an inch in a few of the southern suburbs on February 6.

By Wes Junker | 06:40 PM ET, 03/07/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Latest, Capital Weather Gang, Winter Storms

Posted at 05:42 PM ET, 03/07/2011

My perceptions of winter, a review: Part II

By Wes Junker

This is the second part of my review of winter, covering the month of January. In all of meteorological winter - spanning Nomageddon, Commutageddon, and other threats - the most schizophrenic reaction to a blog about snow came in response to a commentary I posted Friday, Jan. 7 about a potential for snowstorm the following Tuesday (Jan.11).

By Wes Junker | 05:42 PM ET, 03/07/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Latest, Capital Weather Gang

Posted at 12:40 PM ET, 01/27/2011

And the awards for 'Best Snow Comments' go to...

By Ann Posegate

For the past few years, I've compiled the 'best of' comments from the first major snowstorms of the season for the D.C. area. Every year, the range of emotions exhibited here on Capital Weather Gang never cease to amaze me. Here's a sampling of your snow comments that stood out during this winter's first major snowstorm.

By Ann Posegate | 12:40 PM ET, 01/27/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 01/10/2011

Update: Snow chance Tuesday night steady

By Jason Samenow

This morning's models are in, and the more things change the more they stay the same. While the models have waffled a bit, we continue to forecast a light to moderate snow event with 1-4" most likely across the metro region.

By Jason Samenow | 11:00 AM ET, 01/10/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 08:26 AM ET, 01/10/2011

About the Winter Storm Watch east of D.C.

By Jason Samenow

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our eastern suburbs for Tuesday afternoon and night, which includes Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard, Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary's counties. The watch was issued for the potential for 5 or more inches of snow (and snow mixed with sleet in Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's county) in these areas but is not a guarantee.

By Jason Samenow | 08:26 AM ET, 01/10/2011 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 05:45 AM ET, 12/25/2010

Winter storm watch Sunday & Sunday night

By Jason Samenow

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. Watch includes entire metro region.

By Jason Samenow | 05:45 AM ET, 12/25/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 07:45 PM ET, 12/21/2010

Weekend storm: Glancing blow or blizzard?

By Jason Samenow

The images above show the latest simulations for the potential weekend (extending into Monday for the European model) storm from the most recent operational versions of the GFS (American) and European computer models. The GFS model (run this afternoon) indicates very light snow Christmas afternoon and evening with the modest storm mostly going out to sea. The European model (run this morning) simulates the same system as a full-fledged blizzard Sunday into Monday.

By Jason Samenow | 07:45 PM ET, 12/21/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms

Posted at 02:30 PM ET, 12/15/2010

What are your snow predictions?

By Jason Samenow

We've now told you that we're favoring 1" or so tomorrow, and giving very low odds of big snows this weekend. But what do you think?

By Jason Samenow | 02:30 PM ET, 12/15/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 10:36 AM ET, 12/15/2010

Federal leave for severe weather revamped

By Ed O'Keefe

With temperatures plummeting and flurries spotted across the Washington area in recent days, the Obama administration is mandating that the government allow more federal employees to telework during severe weather.

By Ed O'Keefe | 10:36 AM ET, 12/15/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 11/26/2010

Thanksgiving ice coats western Maryland

By Jason Samenow

As a warm front pushed over a shallow wedge of cold air yesterday morning, a wintry mix of precipitation fell in central and western Maryland as well as northwest Virginia where temperatures hovered near freezing.

By Jason Samenow | 11:00 AM ET, 11/26/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms

Posted at 10:00 PM ET, 10/22/2010

Winter outlook aftershock: Bastardi knocks NOAA

By Jason Samenow

Less than a day after NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather simultaneously released their winter outlooks, AccuWeather chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi has publicly criticized NWS for "following" and "not leading" with its predictions. On his Twitter feed this morning, Bastardi also insinuated NWS may have taken some its winter outlook ideas from him/AccuWeather.

By Jason Samenow | 10:00 PM ET, 10/22/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 10/21/2010

NWS & AccuWeather: Low chance for big snows

By Jason Samenow

The National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather released their winter outlooks this morning and both agree the odds are strongly stacked against a historically snowy winter in the metro region.

By Jason Samenow | 11:30 AM ET, 10/21/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms

Posted at 02:10 PM ET, 10/05/2010

Season's first snowflakes fall in West Virginia

By Jason Samenow

The first snow flakes of the season were spotted by the cooperative weather observers... on the mountaintop at Snowshoe this morning... October 5th. Temperatures were in the lower 30s.

By Jason Samenow | 02:10 PM ET, 10/05/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms

Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 07/29/2010

D.C. record snow in 2010 not due to global warming

By Steve Tracton

A new study by a team of scientists at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory argues that global warming was not involved. Rather, the study finds the anomalous winter was primarily the result of convergence of an exceptionally strong El Nino and unusually strong negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

By Steve Tracton | 10:30 AM ET, 07/29/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Posted at 07:15 PM ET, 02/12/2010

Politician sounds off on D.C. region & snow

By Jason Samenow

* Flurries or light snow possible late tonight: PM Update * * Monday snow? Detailed look | Watch out for ice dams * * Snowbound in suburbs | Wind chill factor | Mid-Atlantic snow stats * * News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There * The...

By Jason Samenow | 07:15 PM ET, 02/12/2010 | Permalink | Comments ( 0)
Categories: Winter Storms, Winter Storms

Capital Weather Gang: Winter Storms