Capital Weather Gang: Winter Storms
Posted at 01:30 PM ET, 07/26/2012
By Kevin Ambrose
I am currently working on a Knickerbocker Snowstorm book with Arcadia publishing for their “Images of America” series. I thought I’d poll the readers of the Capital Weather Gang to determine your favorite cover photo.
By Kevin Ambrose |
01:30 PM ET, 07/26/2012 |
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Posted at 01:48 PM ET, 04/18/2012
By Matt Ross
As always, we grade our winter and summer seasonal outlooks in spring and fall respectively. In short, we did poorly this winter with not much of a silver lining. The major consolation being that we can commiserate with the authors of the other winter outlooks we encountered.
By Matt Ross |
01:48 PM ET, 04/18/2012 |
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Posted at 10:08 AM ET, 03/16/2012
By Justin Grieser
With D.C.’s first occurrence of three straight 80-degree days in March since 1998, snow is now a distant memory. Capital Weather Gang officially retired Season 2 of the Snow Potential Index (SPI) last Friday, forcing disappointed snow lovers to come to terms with the remarkably warm winter of 2011-2012.
By Justin Grieser |
10:08 AM ET, 03/16/2012 |
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Posted at 10:35 AM ET, 03/05/2012
By Jason Samenow
As light snow and flurries - of a conversational nature - fly around parts of the D.C. metro area, a narrow band of heavy snow has set up from just west of Charlottesville to just south of Fredericksburg. A winter storm warning for 4-6” of snow has been posted for that region through 1 p.m. today.
By Jason Samenow |
10:35 AM ET, 03/05/2012 |
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Posted at 12:03 PM ET, 02/22/2012
By Wes Junker
The warmer than normal winter is expected to continue into at least the first two weeks of March and will probably last through the month. That doesn’t mean there won’t be quick shots of colder than normal weather but that there is unlikely to be sustained cold. And snowstorms will still probably be hard to come by.
By Wes Junker |
12:03 PM ET, 02/22/2012 |
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Posted at 10:35 AM ET, 02/22/2012
By Kevin Ambrose
On Monday, I traveled as far as Charlottesville, to Monticello, then I turned around. I stopped a few times to take photos. Some of the photos, I thought, turned out fairly well so I decided I would share them.
By Kevin Ambrose |
10:35 AM ET, 02/22/2012 |
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Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 02/21/2012
By Ian Livingston
The forecast for the February 19 storm was not a good one for D.C. snow lovers, unless willing to travel. That’s just what two members of the Capital Weather Gang did, and they managed to find some heavy snow.
By Ian Livingston |
12:30 PM ET, 02/21/2012 |
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Posted at 10:26 AM ET, 02/21/2012
By Jason Samenow
After a largely snowless season, last week there was considerable build-up for the possibility of snow Sunday. But with the exception of Springfield and points south, there wasn’t even a dusting. Some have questioned whether forecasts were overblown for Sunday’s event. But we want to let the record show our forecast was for little or snow in the immediate metro region, starting Friday night.
By Jason Samenow |
10:26 AM ET, 02/21/2012 |
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Posted at 02:13 PM ET, 02/19/2012
By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman
Don’t be surprised to see some steady snow, perhaps a coating to an inch in D.C.’s southern suburbs this evening. Around the beltway, I’d expect any flakes to be more conversational, with little or no accumulation. The most likely timing would be between 6 and 10 p.m. tonight. North of town, probably just flurries, if that.
By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman |
02:13 PM ET, 02/19/2012 |
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Posted at 11:18 PM ET, 02/18/2012
By Jason Samenow
It’s desperation time for snow lovers. The latest models have shifted the northern edge of Sunday’s simulated precipitation south and do not indicate any snow for the District. And even snow prospects south of the District are iffy.
By Jason Samenow |
11:18 PM ET, 02/18/2012 |
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Posted at 04:45 PM ET, 02/18/2012
By Dan Stillman
We’ve been highlighting for several days now the significant chance that tomorrow’s storm tracks too far south to deliver much snow to the area, and as of this afternoon that continues to be the case. The models have mostly now locked in on a storm track that would give the D.C. area 1-2” inches of wet snow at most, with no snow (or at least no accumulating snow) a possibility as well, especially from D.C. to the north.
By Dan Stillman |
04:45 PM ET, 02/18/2012 |
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Posted at 11:10 PM ET, 02/17/2012
By Jason Samenow
All day long, model guidance has been trending drier and less snowy for Sunday. As icing on the cake, the NAM model - which had been the “snowy” model - simulated no snow for D.C. in its latest run this evening.
By Jason Samenow |
11:10 PM ET, 02/17/2012 |
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Posted at 03:03 PM ET, 02/17/2012
By Wes Junker
Last night, the models seemed to converging towards a snowy solution. It looked like there was a decent chance of meeting winter storm watch criteria. However, today’s runs paint a different picture as there continues to be model chaos. Even the question of precipitation type has not been completely resolved. The overriding unresolved question is how much snow will the storm produce and if it does now how much will stick. Both these questions are very much up in the air as very small changes in the storm track can make huge differences in the amount of precipitation it produces.
By Wes Junker |
03:03 PM ET, 02/17/2012 |
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Posted at 12:25 PM ET, 02/17/2012
By Jason Samenow
During the day yesterday and last night, it looked like models were coming to consensus that we would get significant precipitation Sunday, and at least some of it in the form of snow. Now, it’s not as clear. As the impressive southern storm moves from the western Gulf of Mexico to the North Carolina coast, precipitation will have a sharp northern cutoff. Whether that cutoff is in D.C. area or southern Pennsylvania will make all the difference with respect to the kind of weather conditions we experience Sunday.
By Jason Samenow |
12:25 PM ET, 02/17/2012 |
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Posted at 10:07 AM ET, 02/17/2012
By Steve Tracton
Let’s assume there will be measurable snow on the ground by Monday morning. How do we most reliably figure out “how much?”. The answer to the question is not as straight forward as one might think.
By Steve Tracton |
10:07 AM ET, 02/17/2012 |
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Posted at 11:17 PM ET, 02/16/2012
By Jason Samenow
The models coming in this evening, thus far, have trended colder - which is critical for Sunday’s snow prospects. And while some earlier model runs showed the storm just grazing us, according to this evening’s runs, it now delivers a pretty good blow. So it looks like the necessary moisture and cold air may be coming together for accumulating snow Sunday. But - with the storm still 60-70 hours away - significant fluctuations to the forecast are possible.
By Jason Samenow |
11:17 PM ET, 02/16/2012 |
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Posted at 02:07 PM ET, 02/15/2012
By Jason Samenow
The potential exists for a major East Coast storm this weekend, but it’s just as likely the storm passes to our south, harmlessly out to sea. Even if we get a storm, it’s not clear if precipitation would take the form of snow, rain, or some sloppy combination. In other words, right now we have more questions than answer.
By Jason Samenow |
02:07 PM ET, 02/15/2012 |
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Posted at 02:03 PM ET, 02/14/2012
By Wes Junker
Yesterday several computer models suggested there was a chance of a snowstorm Sunday. Now, several of them are backing away from that idea. The most we can now say about this weekend is there is a chance of rain or snow, but it’s even more likely the entire system stays far enough to our south that we remain dry.
By Wes Junker |
02:03 PM ET, 02/14/2012 |
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Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 02/14/2012
By Kevin Ambrose
You have heard of graupel, right? If it’s not a snowflake, it’s not hail, it’s not sleet, it’s not snow pellets, but it’s white and falls from the sky, then there is a good chance it is graupel. On Saturday afternoon, a squall moved through Manassas, Virginia that produced graupel during its onset.
By Kevin Ambrose |
10:15 AM ET, 02/14/2012 |
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Posted at 03:32 PM ET, 02/13/2012
By Jason Samenow
For about 36 hours, between sunset Saturday and sunrise this morning, it actually looked and felt like winter. We had wind, cold, and even a dusting of the white stuff. But this afternoon, we’ve warmed back up to almost 50 degrees. It’s tempting to say winter is over, but a number of computer models are hinting: hold your horses...
By Jason Samenow |
03:32 PM ET, 02/13/2012 |
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Posted at 11:12 AM ET, 02/10/2012
By Jason Samenow
Two rounds of wintry weather will visit the region in the next 36 hours. The first, tonight, should be mostly light rain but may put down a little snow in the far northwest suburbs. The second, Saturday afternoon and evening, offers the chance of rain showers changing over to snow showers as temperatures rapidly fall, possibly creating pockets of slick travel Saturday evening.
By Jason Samenow |
11:12 AM ET, 02/10/2012 |
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Posted at 01:43 PM ET, 02/09/2012
By Wes Junker
Another tricky winter weather event is on the horizon for Friday night into early Saturday morning. Like so many of the events recently, there are still questions about how much cold air and moisture will be available to the system.
By Wes Junker |
01:43 PM ET, 02/09/2012 |
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Posted at 10:07 AM ET, 02/09/2012
By Jason Samenow
Our forecast for at least “conversational flakes” around the District yesterday was a bad one. What went wrong?
By Jason Samenow |
10:07 AM ET, 02/09/2012 |
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Posted at 03:59 PM ET, 02/08/2012
By Jason Samenow
Every storm, we get a ton of excellent reports from our readers via Facebook and Twitter. If you’re not following us on those platforms, you should :) Here’s a collection of reports and photos from our followers from throughout this event.
By Jason Samenow |
03:59 PM ET, 02/08/2012 |
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Posted at 11:58 AM ET, 02/08/2012
By Jason Samenow
Stay tuned to this live blog for the latest updates on this snow (and rain) event through mid-afternoon.
By Jason Samenow |
11:58 AM ET, 02/08/2012 |
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Posted at 10:48 AM ET, 02/08/2012
By Jason Samenow
Today’s snow event is a minor one and may even be more rain than snow south and east of the District. Nonetheless, the coincidence of the storm’s heaviest precipitation with the afternoon commute may cause some slow going, especially in the colder north and west suburbs.
By Jason Samenow |
10:48 AM ET, 02/08/2012 |
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Posted at 10:53 PM ET, 02/07/2012
By Jason Samenow
Based on this evening’s model runs, our forecast for Wednesday’s snow event is on track. The most important point to emphasize is that the “worst” of this event now looks like it will come through during the afternoon and evening rush hour.
By Jason Samenow |
10:53 PM ET, 02/07/2012 |
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Posted at 12:27 PM ET, 02/07/2012
By Jason Samenow
A weak area of low pressure will drift through the metro region Wednesday afternoon, producing a period of light snow. Temperatures in the immediate metro region will tend to be above freezing, limiting accumulation to primarily grassy areas. The farther north and west you go, the colder it will be, and thus, the more predicted accumulation.
By Jason Samenow |
12:27 PM ET, 02/07/2012 |
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Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 02/06/2012
By Jason Samenow
Two years ago, Snowmageddon, one of the D.C. area’s biggest snowstorms on record, finally came to a close in the late afternoon. That was after dumping a mind boggling 18-32” of snow over the course of about 30 hours. The storm shut the city down for days and is etched in the memories of all those who lived through it.
By Jason Samenow |
10:15 AM ET, 02/06/2012 |
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Posted at 12:21 PM ET, 02/04/2012
By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow
Remnants of the winter storm that buried the Denver area Thursday night into Friday night are headed toward D.C. The storm, however, is a weaker version of its original self. That combined with recent mild temperatures means much of the precipitation we see will be on the light side and in the form of rain to start. Rain changes to snow north and west of the District, with light accumulations possible, mainly on grassy areas.
By Dan Stillman and Jason Samenow |
12:21 PM ET, 02/04/2012 |
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Posted at 11:59 AM ET, 02/03/2012
By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman
We’ve been watching for several days now the potential for wintry precipitation this weekend. The responsible storm system is on its way to breaking a single storm snowfall record for February around Denver (9” already) but will weaken by the time it reaches the mid-Atlantic. Not to mention, there will be much less cold air to work with.
By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman |
11:59 AM ET, 02/03/2012 |
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Posted at 02:40 PM ET, 02/02/2012
By Jason Samenow
A major winter storm is forecast to blast both Denver and Boulder, Colorado with 10 to 20 inches of snow through Friday. Over the weekend, the storm is forecast to weaken, but some of its remnant moisture may stream into the D.C. metro region. Enough cold air may be in place for the chance of a little snow Saturday night.
By Jason Samenow |
02:40 PM ET, 02/02/2012 |
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Posted at 10:00 PM ET, 01/30/2012
By Wes Junker
Last week, it looked like February might end up a lot like December and January: warmer than normal, with below average snow. But new data have prompted Wes to revise this outlook a bit colder and snowier. He is now calling for near normal temperatures and snowfall during February.
By Wes Junker |
10:00 PM ET, 01/30/2012 |
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Posted at 08:30 PM ET, 01/26/2012
By Wes Junker
The complexity of the pattern heading into February extinguishes any chance of a definitive forecast. About the best I can do is a wild guess. So here goes: my guess is that February will probably again feature above average temperatures and below average snowfall.
By Wes Junker |
08:30 PM ET, 01/26/2012 |
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Posted at 01:47 PM ET, 01/26/2012
By Jason Samenow
Exactly one year ago, a powerful winter storm walloped the region at just the wrong time, leading to one of Washington, D.C.’s worst ever evening commutes. A thunderstorm of sleet and then snow overwhelmed the region between 4 and 10 p.m., paralyzing traffic everywhere. Chances are good either you or someone you know waited until it was too late to leave your/their job, and got stuck on area roads for hours.
By Jason Samenow |
01:47 PM ET, 01/26/2012 |
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Posted at 12:26 PM ET, 01/21/2012
By Jason Samenow
The first widespread accumulating snow and ice event of the 2011-12 winter is over. Although the mix of precipitation stuck to area roads and created slippery conditions overnight into this morning, major problems were averted as the storm coincided with light traffic volume.
By Jason Samenow |
12:26 PM ET, 01/21/2012 |
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Posted at 10:50 AM ET, 01/21/2012
By Ian Livingston and Dan Stillman
Round two of this winter event has largely managed to skirt the immediate D.C. area to the north and to the south. Still, freezing drizzle has led to additional iciness even in places that have not seen sustained freezing rain this morning. Ice accumulation on top of snow and sleet appears to mainly be about a trace to 0.10” locally, with more north and west. Temperatures that are slowly rising are still near or below freezing across most of the area, though they should rise a few degrees heading into or during the afternoon.
By Ian Livingston and Dan Stillman |
10:50 AM ET, 01/21/2012 |
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Posted at 01:19 PM ET, 01/20/2012
By Jason Samenow
The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for the entire metro region, effective 11 p.m. this evening through 1 p.m. Saturday for snow and ice accumulation.
By Jason Samenow |
01:19 PM ET, 01/20/2012 |
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Posted at 11:18 AM ET, 01/20/2012
By Jason Samenow
Cold, dry Arctic air seeps into the region today while an area of storminess approaches from the southwest. The cold air and storminess collide tonight, delivering a frozen, wintry punch to the metro region
By Jason Samenow |
11:18 AM ET, 01/20/2012 |
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Posted at 01:34 PM ET, 01/19/2012
By Wes Junker
Absent for much of the season, a bout with wintry weather may finally present itself Friday night into Saturday morning.
By Wes Junker |
01:34 PM ET, 01/19/2012 |
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Posted at 10:46 AM ET, 01/19/2012
By Kevin Ambrose
If we look back at past decades, a few of the surprise snowstorms were quite large. I have researched the storms and rank the top 5 surprise snowstorms that have struck Washington, D.C. plus an honorable mention.
By Kevin Ambrose |
10:46 AM ET, 01/19/2012 |
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Posted at 01:23 PM ET, 01/11/2012
By Wes Junker
Two minor snow threats may be in the works for this week. The first one is with the strong cold front that will be moving through our region early Friday morning. The second is from a clipper type low that is forecast to track southeast from the Midwest towards our region Sunday morning.
By Wes Junker |
01:23 PM ET, 01/11/2012 |
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Posted at 11:23 AM ET, 01/11/2012
By Kevin Ambrose
I tried a different type of photo shoot Tuesday morning after our surprise snow event on Monday. I took a pocket camera on a six mile run through the snow-covered Manassas Battlefield to record the wintery scenes and beautiful setting of the park.
By Kevin Ambrose |
11:23 AM ET, 01/11/2012 |
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Posted at 09:55 AM ET, 01/10/2012
By Jason Samenow
What was predicted to be a non-accumulating mix of snow, sleet and light rain turned into a surprising mostly snow event Monday, producing a trace to two inches across the region. Officially, National Airport received 0.6”, Dulles 0.5” and BWI airport 0.4”.
By Jason Samenow |
09:55 AM ET, 01/10/2012 |
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Posted at 04:55 AM ET, 01/07/2012
By Wes Junker
Several meteorologists have been alluding to a potential pattern change that would flip our weather conditions from unseasonably mild to more persistent cold. I also think that there will be a pattern change but not as radical as some may lead you to believe.
By Wes Junker |
04:55 AM ET, 01/07/2012 |
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Posted at 02:35 PM ET, 01/05/2012
By Eric Peterson
Weather Watcher Eric Peterson did what nature didn’t yet this winter: Make his yard a white wonderland.
By Eric Peterson |
02:35 PM ET, 01/05/2012 |
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Posted at 01:42 PM ET, 01/04/2012
By Jason Samenow
Two upper level disturbances swinging through the region may generate light snow showers this afternoon and overnight.
By Jason Samenow |
01:42 PM ET, 01/04/2012 |
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Posted at 11:47 AM ET, 01/03/2012
By Jason Samenow
Strong flow from the northwest over Lake Erie has produced lake enhanced snow showers that have reached as far southeast as northern Anne Arundel and Prince George’s county.
By Jason Samenow |
11:47 AM ET, 01/03/2012 |
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Posted at 02:36 PM ET, 12/28/2011
By Wes Junker
What does a winter weather expert do when there is no winter weather to forecast? I issue an outlook for the upcoming month.
By Wes Junker |
02:36 PM ET, 12/28/2011 |
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Posted at 02:46 PM ET, 12/21/2011
By Wes Junker
A few media outlets have started hyping the potential for a snowstorm either on Christmas eve or Christmas day. The Capital Weather Gang disagrees.
By Wes Junker |
02:46 PM ET, 12/21/2011 |
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Posted at 02:35 PM ET, 12/15/2011
By Jason Samenow
Data plotted on two graphs paints a pathetic picture for Washington, D.C. snow lovers this winter.
By Jason Samenow |
02:35 PM ET, 12/15/2011 |
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Posted at 12:48 PM ET, 12/13/2011
By Wes Junker
Santa and his elves have commissioned the Capital Weather Gang to take an early look at the snow potential for the week leading up to Christmas in Washington, D.C.
By Wes Junker |
12:48 PM ET, 12/13/2011 |
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Posted at 10:52 AM ET, 12/08/2011
By Jason Samenow
Wednesday’s storm had it all: heavy mountain snow, raging wind, and severe thunderstorms in the Virginia Tidewater and southern Maryland. But it was truly exceptional as a rain-producer, and the wettest day Washington, D.C. has ever experienced during the cold season spanning November to March.
By Jason Samenow |
10:52 AM ET, 12/08/2011 |
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Posted at 10:39 AM ET, 12/07/2011
By Jason Samenow
Let’s get real folks: this storm is more about the rain than it is about the snow.
By Jason Samenow |
10:39 AM ET, 12/07/2011 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 12/06/2011
By Wes Junker
The snow threat remains for Wednesday night but, for most of the region, the event will probably be a minor one.
By Wes Junker |
02:00 PM ET, 12/06/2011 |
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Posted at 01:04 PM ET, 12/06/2011
By Jason Samenow
Meteorologists and media outlets have been posting their thoughts on Wednesday night’s snow potential, so I thought I’d pull them together and offer some commentary.
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01:04 PM ET, 12/06/2011 |
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Posted at 02:12 PM ET, 12/05/2011
By Wes Junker
There is potential for snow in the Washington area early Thursday morning but the forecast is cloaked in uncertainty.
By Wes Junker |
02:12 PM ET, 12/05/2011 |
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Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 12/05/2011
By Jason Samenow
Capital Weather Gang released its winter outlook in early November, and Thursday winter weather expert Wes Junker updated our outlook for December. In short, for the winter we’re predicting near to slightly below normal snowfall and near normal temperatures. Over the last few days, several other outlets have tweaked their outlooks, which more or less continue to be consistent with our outlook predictions.
By Jason Samenow |
01:00 PM ET, 12/05/2011 |
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Posted at 10:54 AM ET, 12/01/2011
By Wes Junker
The start of December is upon us and it’s time to start sniffing for snow.
By Wes Junker |
10:54 AM ET, 12/01/2011 |
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Posted at 02:32 PM ET, 11/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
With the start of December, Capital Weather Gang’s Snow Potential Index will return.
By Jason Samenow |
02:32 PM ET, 11/30/2011 |
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Posted at 10:11 AM ET, 11/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
In Tuesday’s Washington Post print edition, CWG’s Andrew Freedman profiles the work of Judah Cohen, Ph.D., principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (a Verisk Analytics company) who has studied linkages between fall Eurasian snow cover and East Coast winter weather. The article begins: According to new research, Washingtonians shouldn’t blame bad luck for the recent string of high-impact snowstorms, from “Snowmaggedon” two years ago to last January’s “Commuteageddon.” Instead, it may be more justified to cast a suspicious gaze toward Siberia, about 6,000 miles away.
By Jason Samenow |
10:11 AM ET, 11/30/2011 |
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Posted at 01:44 PM ET, 11/29/2011
By Wes Junker
Last week, I discussed several of the challenges in making a snowstorm forecast. They include: 1) many of the physical processes that govern the atmosphere act non-linearly, 2) uncertainty about the initial state of the atmosphere, 3) certain part of a model’s physics have to be approximateds. Today, I’ll walk you through the additional three factors which can lead to bad forecasts
By Wes Junker |
01:44 PM ET, 11/29/2011 |
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Posted at 11:06 AM ET, 11/23/2011
By Wes Junker
Almost every year, at least one snow forecast ends up busting in our region. Many readers probably remember last year’s December 26 bust (when we called for 3-6” of snow, and little fell). The fall-out elicited remarks like “weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 90 percent of the time and still keep your job.” While that’s a huge overstatement about the state of weather forecasting, it certainly captures the frustration that many feel when a forecast fails. This article will attempt to explain why the forecasting a snowstorm is so difficult and why meteorologists often equivocate when discussing a storm’s potential. This is part one in a two part series.
By Wes Junker |
11:06 AM ET, 11/23/2011 |
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Posted at 12:38 PM ET, 11/16/2011
By Jason Samenow
NBC4’s chief meteorologist Doug Kammerer was the latest of local television prognosticators to issue a winter outlook last night. His conclusion: about the same as everyone else - normal to below normal snowfall is most likely across the region.
By Jason Samenow |
12:38 PM ET, 11/16/2011 |
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Posted at 10:51 AM ET, 11/03/2011
By Matt Ross
For snow lovers hoping for a repeat of the epic 2009-10 winter, you will probably be disappointed. This winter is much more likely to be similar to last winter, when 10.1” fell, than the record-setting 56.1” of 2009-10. But we don’t imagine this winter will be a dud either. It’s unlikely to be as cold as last winter, but we are not favoring a warm winter either. Furthermore, we have a good chance of matching or exceeding the snow totals of last winter at all three airports.
By Matt Ross |
10:51 AM ET, 11/03/2011 |
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Posted at 01:13 PM ET, 11/02/2011
By Jason Samenow
Tomorrow, Capital Weather Gang will release its 2011-2012 winter outlook. Before we let you in our predictions for winter, we want to give you an opportunity to make a forecast. So tell us, to the nearest tenth of an inch, how much snow will fall this winter at Reagan National Airport?
By Jason Samenow |
01:13 PM ET, 11/02/2011 |
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Posted at 11:23 AM ET, 11/02/2011
By Don Lipman
OK, so we had some snow in parts of our area last month (just a trace at Reagan National and .6 of an inch at Dulles), now that it’s November, we could have some more. Time will tell. (I don’t do the forecasting on this blog.) But what does October snow mean, if anything, for the rest of the winter as a whole? Curiosity got the best of me and, although it’s been done many times before, I decided to do some of my own research.
By Don Lipman |
11:23 AM ET, 11/02/2011 |
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Posted at 06:48 PM ET, 11/01/2011
By Jason Samenow
When we planned the release of our winter outlook for the first week of November, little did we know the season’s first winter storm would occur before then! To sum up our forecasting performance for Snowtober (October 29), we were overly skeptical of a snow event prior to two days before the storm struck, but did a very good job of forecasting the storm within 48 hours.
By Jason Samenow |
06:48 PM ET, 11/01/2011 |
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Posted at 11:39 AM ET, 11/01/2011
By Jason Samenow
Was the weekend’s “epic” storm in the Northeast part of a long-term trend? It’s certainly not inconsistent with the region’s experience in recent years. Data from the National Climatic Data Center indicate heavy cold season (October to March) precipitation events are intensifying.
By Jason Samenow |
11:39 AM ET, 11/01/2011 |
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Posted at 03:15 PM ET, 10/31/2011
By Jason Samenow
Who knew the first opportunity to enlist our readers and newly minted Capital Weather Watchers to document the season’s first snowfall would come before Halloween? Throughout the storm, we received a constant stream of reports as well as multimedia to ground truth what was happening throughout the region. Thanks to these reports, we were able to keep everyone informed about who was getting rain, sleet, and snow, and how much. Suffice to say, our community of readers provided incredibly useful, entertaining, and visually stunning content. Thanks so much! And enjoy the imagery in this post!
By Jason Samenow |
03:15 PM ET, 10/31/2011 |
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Posted at 11:02 AM ET, 10/31/2011
By Andrew Freedman
Epic. Incredible. Downright ridiculous. These words best describe the historic snowstorm that delivered a crippling wallop to parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the weekend. Widely referred to by its social media moniker, “Snowtober,” the storm smashed records that had stood since the beginning of the reliable instrument record in the late 1800s (and in some cases, even longer than that), and upended assumptions about what a fall nor’easter can do. The heavy, wet snow pasted onto trees still bearing foliage in many areas, weighed down power lines and caused more than three million power outages.
By Andrew Freedman |
11:02 AM ET, 10/31/2011 |
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Posted at 06:15 PM ET, 10/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
Snow and mixed precipitation have largely tapered off across the region. Temperatures tonight will get quite cold, ranging from the mid-20s in some the coldest suburbs to the low 30s downtown - ending the growing season across much of the region. Sunday is sunny but brisk, with highs only 45-50.
By Jason Samenow |
06:15 PM ET, 10/29/2011 |
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Posted at 01:55 PM ET, 10/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
A powerful fall storm, more characteristic of winter, promises to bring a large swath of heavy snow for interior sections of the mid-Atlantic, and locations just west of I-95 in New England. According to NOAA, 25 million people are under winter storm watches.
By Jason Samenow |
01:55 PM ET, 10/28/2011 |
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Posted at 11:43 AM ET, 10/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
A rapidly developing, intense East Coast storm will bring unseasonably cold temperatures and heavy precipitation to the entire metro region Friday night and Saturday. For the immediate metro region, rain is likely to be the predominant precipitation type, but snow may begin to mix with the rain late Saturday morning and possibly change to snow briefly during the afternoon. Accumulation is unlikely but cannot be ruled out. Towards western Montgomery, Frederick and Loudoun counties, a changeover to snow is more likely to occur and occur earlier, with the potential for some accumulation, especially at higher elevations.
By Jason Samenow |
11:43 AM ET, 10/28/2011 |
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Posted at 06:50 PM ET, 10/27/2011
By Jason Samenow
I debated even posting this, but if I have information, why hide it? The latest North American Model (NAM) pastes the D.C. metro region with an unprecendented late October snow event. Ready for this? It simulates 4-8” of heavy, wet snow Saturday. Caution: this model has been wildly inconsistent and had the storm out to sea as of this morning, so take it with a huge grain of salt.
By Jason Samenow |
06:50 PM ET, 10/27/2011 |
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Posted at 02:30 PM ET, 10/27/2011
By Wes Junker
The odds of a highly unusual, though not unheard of, period of October snow have increased for northern and western parts of the D.C. region on Saturday. Yesterday, Jason outlined what ingredients were needed to get accumulating snow in the Washington area during October . The majority of computer models are now showing more of those ingredients than yesterday.
By Wes Junker |
02:30 PM ET, 10/27/2011 |
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Posted at 02:55 PM ET, 10/26/2011
By Jason Samenow
The latest computer models continue to suggest the odds of seeing snow Saturday morning in the Washington metro region are small, but not non-existent especially in outlying western areas. A cold, light rain remains the most likely scenario and it’s still possible much of the precipitation misses to our east, and it’s dry. Perhaps of greater significance, many locations may experience their first freeze Saturday night.
By Jason Samenow |
02:55 PM ET, 10/26/2011 |
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Posted at 02:35 PM ET, 10/25/2011
By Wes Junker
Over the past couple of days, the European weather model (ECMWF) has been advertising the potential for snow in the Washington area Saturday, especially for areas west of the city with elevation. As Ian Livingston noted , accumulating snow is extremely rare in Washington during October. It has only been recorded five times in a total of 4,340 days. Because of its rarity, any model forecast of snow should be looked at with some skepticism, especially when the forecast is a projection that is four days from now.
By Wes Junker |
02:35 PM ET, 10/25/2011 |
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Posted at 11:25 AM ET, 10/11/2011
By Jason Samenow
A new study published in Nature Geosciences presents new support for the idea that when the sun’s intensity weakens, it favors weather patterns conducive to cold and snow over large parts of the U.S. and northern Europe.
By Jason Samenow |
11:25 AM ET, 10/11/2011 |
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Posted at 11:16 AM ET, 10/05/2011
By Jason Samenow
AccuWeather says local weather will start cold and snowy but turn mild in 2012, while many areas north will get hammered.
By Jason Samenow |
11:16 AM ET, 10/05/2011 |
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Posted at 02:13 PM ET, 09/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
A major fall cold front will send temperatures tumbling Friday night. And as a cold pool of air aloft flows across the elevated terrain to our west, yes, some snowflakes may fly between late Friday night and Sunday morning.
By Jason Samenow |
02:13 PM ET, 09/29/2011 |
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Posted at 01:59 PM ET, 09/22/2011
By Jason Samenow
Get ready for a winter of “clime and punishment” says the Farmer’s Almanac. From frigid conditions in the northern tier of the U.S. to very wet and stormy conditions in the East, it predicts the upcoming winter will be an “unusually” tough one. But should we put much stock in this outlook? I’d say just a very little, and will explain.
By Jason Samenow |
01:59 PM ET, 09/22/2011 |
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Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 08/10/2011
By Jason Samenow
The low this morning in Embarrass (yes - that’s the town’s name), Minnesota dipped to 36 chilly degrees - a sure sign autumn is right around the corner. And some folks are already thinking ahead to winter. Take AccuWeather’s Henry Margusity, who unveiled his preliminary ideas about the coming cold season yesterday.
By Jason Samenow |
12:45 PM ET, 08/10/2011 |
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Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 05/18/2011
By Jason Samenow
The Associated Press is reporting the internet may allow schools to remain open for business - in a virtual sense - even during crippling snowstorms. Mark me down as against this. Aren’t snow days a rite of passage during childhood school years?
By Jason Samenow |
12:30 PM ET, 05/18/2011 |
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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 04/14/2011
By Matt Ross
By Matt Ross |
10:45 AM ET, 04/14/2011 |
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Posted at 01:46 PM ET, 03/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
The hype is building as one of the primary computer models forecasters rely on is advertising the potential for snow, and maybe lots of it, in parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England for the second half of the work week.
By Jason Samenow |
01:46 PM ET, 03/29/2011 |
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Posted at 10:35 PM ET, 03/26/2011
By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman
Winter weather has decided to stretch itself out into spring and so we now await at least one more opportunity to whiten the ground late tonight through Sunday morning.
By Jason Samenow and Dan Stillman |
10:35 PM ET, 03/26/2011 |
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Posted at 06:15 PM ET, 03/24/2011
By Jason Samenow
We’ve been talking about the chance of snow Sunday since Tuesday, but just today started to talk about amounts. Generally speaking, we’re thinking a dusting to an inch is the best bet. However, some of the model data and NOAA assessments indicate more is possible. So I thought I’d share them so everyone can understand the full suite of possibilities.
By Jason Samenow |
06:15 PM ET, 03/24/2011 |
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Posted at 06:40 PM ET, 03/07/2011
By Wes Junker
This is the third part of my review of winter, covering February. On the heels of our Commutageddon forecasting triumph came the Midwest blizzard that crippled Chicago. That storm did not have much of an impact on our area. We next started looking at a storm that would ultimately give the area a dusting to an inch in a few of the southern suburbs on February 6.
By Wes Junker |
06:40 PM ET, 03/07/2011 |
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Posted at 05:42 PM ET, 03/07/2011
By Wes Junker
This is the second part of my review of winter, covering the month of January. In all of meteorological winter - spanning Nomageddon, Commutageddon, and other threats - the most schizophrenic reaction to a blog about snow came in response to a commentary I posted Friday, Jan. 7 about a potential for snowstorm the following Tuesday (Jan.11).
By Wes Junker |
05:42 PM ET, 03/07/2011 |
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Posted at 12:40 PM ET, 01/27/2011
By Ann Posegate
For the past few years, I've compiled the 'best of' comments from
the first major snowstorms of the season for the D.C. area. Every
year, the range of emotions exhibited here on Capital Weather Gang
never cease to amaze me. Here's a sampling of your snow comments
that stood out during this winter's first major snowstorm.
By Ann Posegate |
12:40 PM ET, 01/27/2011 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 01/10/2011
By Jason Samenow
This morning's models are in, and the more things change the more they stay the same. While the models have waffled a bit, we continue to forecast a light to moderate snow event with 1-4" most likely across the metro region.
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 01/10/2011 |
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Posted at 08:26 AM ET, 01/10/2011
By Jason Samenow
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for our eastern suburbs for Tuesday afternoon and night, which includes Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard, Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary's counties. The watch was issued for the potential for 5 or more inches of snow (and snow mixed with sleet in Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's county) in these areas but is not a guarantee.
By Jason Samenow |
08:26 AM ET, 01/10/2011 |
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Posted at 05:45 AM ET, 12/25/2010
By Jason Samenow
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
Watch includes entire metro region.
By Jason Samenow |
05:45 AM ET, 12/25/2010 |
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Posted at 07:45 PM ET, 12/21/2010
By Jason Samenow
The images above show the latest simulations for the potential weekend (extending into Monday for the European model) storm from the most recent operational versions of the GFS (American) and European computer models. The GFS model (run this afternoon) indicates very light snow Christmas afternoon and evening with the modest storm mostly going out to sea. The European model (run this morning) simulates the same system as a full-fledged blizzard Sunday into Monday.
By Jason Samenow |
07:45 PM ET, 12/21/2010 |
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Posted at 02:30 PM ET, 12/15/2010
By Jason Samenow
We've now told you that we're favoring 1" or so tomorrow, and giving very low odds of big snows this weekend. But what do you think?
By Jason Samenow |
02:30 PM ET, 12/15/2010 |
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Posted at 10:36 AM ET, 12/15/2010
By Ed O'Keefe
With temperatures plummeting and flurries spotted across the Washington area in recent days, the Obama administration is mandating that the government allow more federal employees to telework during severe weather.
By Ed O'Keefe |
10:36 AM ET, 12/15/2010 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 11/26/2010
By Jason Samenow
As a warm front pushed over a shallow wedge of cold air yesterday morning, a wintry mix of precipitation fell in central and western Maryland as well as northwest Virginia where temperatures hovered near freezing.
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 11/26/2010 |
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Posted at 10:00 PM ET, 10/22/2010
By Jason Samenow
Less than a day after NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather simultaneously released their winter outlooks, AccuWeather chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi has publicly criticized NWS for "following" and "not leading" with its predictions. On his Twitter feed this morning, Bastardi also insinuated NWS may have taken some its winter outlook ideas from him/AccuWeather.
By Jason Samenow |
10:00 PM ET, 10/22/2010 |
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Posted at 11:30 AM ET, 10/21/2010
By Jason Samenow
The National Weather Service (NWS) and AccuWeather released their winter outlooks this morning and both agree the odds are strongly stacked against a historically snowy winter in the metro region.
By Jason Samenow |
11:30 AM ET, 10/21/2010 |
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Posted at 02:10 PM ET, 10/05/2010
By Jason Samenow
The first snow flakes of the season were spotted by the cooperative weather observers... on the mountaintop at Snowshoe this morning... October 5th. Temperatures were in the lower 30s.
By Jason Samenow |
02:10 PM ET, 10/05/2010 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 07/29/2010
By Steve Tracton
A new study by a team of scientists at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory argues that global warming was not involved. Rather, the study finds the anomalous winter was primarily the result of convergence of an exceptionally strong El Nino and unusually strong negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
By Steve Tracton |
10:30 AM ET, 07/29/2010 |
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Posted at 07:15 PM ET, 02/12/2010
By Jason Samenow
* Flurries or light snow possible late tonight: PM Update * * Monday snow? Detailed look | Watch out for ice dams * * Snowbound in suburbs | Wind chill factor | Mid-Atlantic snow stats * * News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There * The...
By Jason Samenow |
07:15 PM ET, 02/12/2010 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 02/11/2010
By Ann Posegate
* A chance to dig out: Full Forecast | Next snow chance * * Report snow totals (view map) | Snow totals from NWS * * Snowiest winter ever | Watch out for ice dams * * Outside now? Radar, temps & more: Weather Wall * * News, traffic &...
By Ann Posegate |
10:30 AM ET, 02/11/2010 |
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Posted at 06:45 PM ET, 02/08/2010
By Jason Samenow
*** Latest storm update: S'now joke: Another major storm coming *** (next update around 11 p.m.) * Federal government closed tomorrow: Federal Eye * * Winter Storm Warning Tues.-Wed. for most of metro area (map) * * Making history? | Today's Q&A | Snowmageddon's incredible output * * Watch out...
By Jason Samenow |
06:45 PM ET, 02/08/2010 |
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Posted at 04:17 PM ET, 02/07/2010
By Jason Samenow
*** More snow Tues/Wed, are you kidding?: Full Forecast *** * Federal government closed Monday: Federal Eye * * Detailed look at next snow threat: SLCB | Watch out ice dams * * Measuring Snowmageddon's depth | NWS totals | CWG snow reports * * Power outage maps for Dominion...
By Jason Samenow |
04:17 PM ET, 02/07/2010 |
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Posted at 01:45 PM ET, 02/05/2010
By Jason Samenow
*** Latest Capital Weather Gang Storm Update *** * Winter Storm Warning Friday morning through Saturday evening * * CWG's Matt Rogers: Live chat transcript * * News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There * * Weather history: The Great Knickerbocker Snowstorm of 1922 * The...
By Jason Samenow |
01:45 PM ET, 02/05/2010 |
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Posted at 01:30 PM ET, 02/04/2010
By Andrew Freedman
* Winter Storm Warning Friday morning through Saturday evening * * Odds of 2 double-digit snows in one season? | Snowy photos * * CWG on Facebook & Twitter | E-mail forecast to a friend * * News, traffic & storm coverage: Local home page | Get There * Despite...
By Andrew Freedman |
01:30 PM ET, 02/04/2010 |
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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 01/14/2010
By Don Lipman
Some of Washington's biggest storms not blizzards * Warm-up is here! Full Forecast | A virtual tour of the cold * A snow plow on the streets of D.C. during the December 2009 storm that brought up to two feet of snow to parts of the area. But was the...
By Don Lipman |
10:45 AM ET, 01/14/2010 |
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Posted at 05:00 PM ET, 12/20/2009
By Jason Samenow
* Full Forecast, SchoolCast, and FedCast | The Perfect Snowstorm * * Report snow totals (view map) | NWS snowfall reports (view map) * * The latest storm news, traffic, and cancellation info * Capital Weather Gang's Ann Posegate was out and about yesterday, and shot this video of local...
By Jason Samenow |
05:00 PM ET, 12/20/2009 |
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Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 12/19/2009
By Jason Samenow
*** Latest forecast, storm information, and commentary *** As of 1 p.m., snowfall at Reagan National has reached 12", tying the biggest snowfall on record for Washington, D.C. during the month of December (set back in 1932 on December 17). By 2 p.m., we will have a new record. As...
By Jason Samenow |
02:00 PM ET, 12/19/2009 |
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Posted at 02:15 PM ET, 12/18/2009
By Jason Samenow
This snowstorm has the potential to be the greatest on record for Washington, D.C. during the month of December.
By Jason Samenow |
02:15 PM ET, 12/18/2009 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 12/15/2009
By Jason Samenow
* Winter chill returning tomorrow: Full Forecast * AccuWeather graphic highlighting weekend snowstorm potential. Courtesy AccuWeather.com. "Potential Eastern Snowstorm this Weekend" -- so said a story on the top of AccuWeather's Web site yesterday. The story began: The southern Appalachians through the Northeast could be dealing with a snowstorm this...
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 12/15/2009 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 03/12/2009
By Steve Tracton
* Spring Takes a Sabbatical: Full Forecast | Dueling Climate Meetings * Infrared satellite image of the March 1993 "Storm of the Century." Courtesy NOAA. Sixteen years ago this week, nearly the entire eastern third of the nation was ravaged March 12-14, 1993, by a massive storm often called "The...
By Steve Tracton |
11:00 AM ET, 03/12/2009 |
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Posted at 10:45 AM ET, 02/04/2009
By Andrew Freedman
* Cold for Now, Warm-up for the Weekend: Full Forecast * One of the strongest winter storms in recent memory lashed the east coast yesterday with strong winds, heavy rain, and paralyzing snow. Did you miss it? I suppose you could be forgiven for not noticing it, since what may...
By Andrew Freedman |
10:45 AM ET, 02/04/2009 |
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Posted at 04:00 AM ET, 01/28/2009
By Ann Posegate
Wx and the City * Our Latest Forecast: Showers Then Overnight Refreeze * An icy walkway. By David Stonner. Courtesy FEMA. Many Washington-area residents have been applying deicing products over sidewalks and driveways last night and this morning. This is an important precaution to take to avoid accidents and injury....
By Ann Posegate |
04:00 AM ET, 01/28/2009 |
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Posted at 09:00 PM ET, 01/27/2009
By Ann Posegate
* Latest Forecast Update * A car drives through snowy conditions in Glover Park. By Capital Weather Gang photographer Ian Livingston. The best way to stay safe from slick roads today and tomorrow is to not drive if you don't have to. If you do venture out onto roadways, here...
By Ann Posegate |
09:00 PM ET, 01/27/2009 |
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Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 01/26/2009
By Jamie Jones
* Our Full Forecast | Snow Lover's Crystal Ball: Storm Details * The National Weather Service Office in Sterling has issued a Winter Storm Watch for MOST of the capital region. The watch covers the District and points north and west, extends eastward to the Chesapeake Bay, and includes close-in...
By Jamie Jones |
07:00 AM ET, 01/26/2009 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 02/19/2008
By Jason Samenow
We continue to closely track two potential winter weather events this week. The first event, tomorrow, should consist of mostly snow but probably not enough to shovel. The second event (or series of events), Thursday night through Saturday, has the potential to be a more significant snow and/or ice producer...
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 02/19/2008 |
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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 01/18/2008
By Dan Stillman
Still bears watching Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday PM - Sunday AM Probability: 35% Potential Impact: The good news is you may not need that shovel again this weekend. That's not-so-good news for those craving more of the white stuff. During the day Saturday, low pressure pulling out of...
By Dan Stillman |
10:00 AM ET, 01/18/2008 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 01/14/2008
By Josh Larson
Unclear if enough cold air will be in place. Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Thursday Probability: 30% Potential Impact: Commentary: If you are unhappy with the fact that yesterday's snow passed the Washington, DC area by while dumping quite a bit over New England, don't get too down (yet). Computer...
By Josh Larson |
10:30 AM ET, 01/14/2008 |
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Posted at 07:46 PM ET, 01/09/2008
By Steve Scolnik
Attention winter weather weenies It never rains, but it pours. The DC region, home to more meteorologists per acre than probably anywhere else in the world, is host to two major meteorological meetings on the same night next week. The DC chapter of the American Meteorological Society is presenting winter...
By Steve Scolnik |
07:46 PM ET, 01/09/2008 |
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Posted at 04:45 AM ET, 01/08/2008
By Matt Ross
Outside of the December 5 "clipper storm" that brought 3-5" to most of the DC metro area, the metro region has seen little to no snow. And it's been warm. December finished over two degrees above normal at Reagan National Airport (DCA) for DC's eighth consecutive month with at or...
By Matt Ross |
04:45 AM ET, 01/08/2008 |
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