The Monkey Cage:


Posted at 06:15 PM ET, 04/09/2014

The challenge of leading a more transparent Fed

Newly-released FOMC minutes shed light on challenges ahead for Janet Yellen

By Sarah Binder  |  06:15 PM ET, 04/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Federal Reserve

Posted at 01:53 PM ET, 04/09/2014

What is lustration and is it a good idea for Ukraine to adopt it?

Almost 80% of Ukrainians support a lustration policy, but the policies being proposed go far beyond what was implemented in Eastern Europe after the collapse of communism.

By Maria Popova and Vincent Post  |  01:53 PM ET, 04/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Judicial politics, Ukraine

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 04/09/2014

Tracking public opinion with biased polls

As the response rates of conventional polls decline, we can do better by applying statistical adjustment to non-representative samples.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:00 AM ET, 04/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Polls, Public Opinion

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 04/09/2014

Autocrats now more vulnerable to being ousted by revolt

Today’s dictators should be more concerned with popular protests than coups.

By Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz  |  08:00 AM ET, 04/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Comparative Politics

Posted at 11:08 AM ET, 04/08/2014

Rich people rule!

Political science is zeroing in on the political impact of economic power in America, and the results are not edifying.

By Larry Bartels  |  11:08 AM ET, 04/08/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Political Economy, Political Science

Posted at 09:11 AM ET, 04/08/2014

The rich are running Latin America -- and why that matters

Democracies all over the world are disproportionately run by rich politicians. And that makes a difference.

By Noam Lupu and Nicholas Carnes  |  09:11 AM ET, 04/08/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Inequality, Political Economy

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 04/08/2014

Rwanda: Has reconciliation by legal means worked?

Of the issues surrounding Rwanda’s post-genocide situation, few are more important or more disagreed upon than the issue of reconciliation.

By Laura Seay  |  08:00 AM ET, 04/08/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics, Rwanda, Transitional Justice

Posted at 07:37 PM ET, 04/07/2014

U.S. foreign policy and Ugandan domestic politics collide

A US military-affiliated research institute in Uganda was the target of a police raid in the wake of Uganda’s newly passed Anti-Homosexuality Act.

By Melina Platas Izama and Kim Yi Dionne  |  07:37 PM ET, 04/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics

Posted at 05:30 PM ET, 04/07/2014

Querying the FISA Queries

Last week’s FISA news -- about how the NSA “queries” its database for information about American citizens -- was not actually new. But they highlighted just how much information the agency has and the loose constraints on its use.

By H.L. Pohlman  |  05:30 PM ET, 04/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  FISA, intelligence policy, national security, Surveillance

Posted at 02:50 PM ET, 04/07/2014

Why hasn’t democracy saved us from inequality?

Thomas Piketty’s bestseller raises as many questions as it answers.

By Kenneth Scheve and David Stasavage  |  02:50 PM ET, 04/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Economic History, Political Economy

Posted at 10:19 AM ET, 04/07/2014

The less Americans know about Ukraine’s location, the more they want U.S. to intervene

MONKEY CAGE | Those who cannot locate Ukraine on a map are more likely to back military action, a survey finds.

By Kyle Dropp, Joshua D. Kertzer and Thomas Zeitzoff  |  10:19 AM ET, 04/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  political knowledge, Public Opinion, Ukraine

Posted at 08:38 AM ET, 04/07/2014

Libya’s security dilemma

In Libya, the absence of strong state institutions creates the need for militias to provide security, but these groups undermine security and the development of strong state institutions. What do Libyans think of this thorny security dilemma?

By Lindsay Benstead, Alexander Kj rum, Ellen Lust and Jakob Wichmann  |  08:38 AM ET, 04/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Libya, Militias, Public Opinion, Security

Posted at 01:45 PM ET, 04/06/2014

Better to dismay allies now than to infuriate them later

Why the U.S. should not make troop commitments it might not be able to keep in Eastern Europe.

By Alexander Lanoszka  |  01:45 PM ET, 04/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Poland

Posted at 10:08 AM ET, 04/05/2014

Getting to know Donald Rumsfeld

A new documentary tries -- and fails -- to understand the former secretary of defense.

By Stephen Benedict Dyson  |  10:08 AM ET, 04/05/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Entertainment

Posted at 12:40 PM ET, 04/04/2014

What is the Egyptian anti-coup movement protesting for?

Neither religious fanatics nor Morsi devotees: Protesters are now mobilizing against repression

By Neil Ketchley and Michael Biggs  |  12:40 PM ET, 04/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Coup, Egypt, Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood

Posted at 01:04 PM ET, 04/03/2014

Democrats pull ahead in NYT wedding announcements that have a party identification

In 1980, Republicans outnumbered Democrats in the wedding announcements. But no longer.

By Andrew Gelman  |  01:04 PM ET, 04/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Democrats, New York Times, Republicans, Weddings

Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 04/03/2014

‘No Opposition, No Democracy’ in Turkey’s elections

Turkey has generally been recognized for free and fair elections. What went wrong this time?

By Lisel Hintz  |  12:45 PM ET, 04/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Cat, Elections, Erdogan, Turkey, Twitter

Posted at 11:20 AM ET, 04/03/2014

The end of the Putin mystique

Russia’s actions in Ukraine are primarily intended to distract domestic audiences, but are ultimately destined to fail in this regard.

By M. Steven Fish  |  11:20 AM ET, 04/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 09:15 AM ET, 04/03/2014

The McCutcheon decision could be good news after all

McCutcheon could actually help political parties and make campaign finance more transparent.

By Ray LaRaja  |  09:15 AM ET, 04/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaign Finance

Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 04/03/2014

Does the G-8’s suspension of Russia actually matter?

What data about past suspensions from international organizations can tell us about Russia’s suspension from the G8

By Felicity Vabulas  |  07:00 AM ET, 04/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Russia

Posted at 04:45 PM ET, 04/02/2014

What the McCutcheon decision means

The Supreme Court’s decision will make campaign finance even more unequal.

By John Sides  |  04:45 PM ET, 04/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaign Finance

Posted at 02:19 PM ET, 04/02/2014

Erdo an’s next moves

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo an is likely to take his AKP victory in local elections as a popular seal of approval, and it could have broad implications for Turkey’s turbulent political landscape.

By Gonul Tol  |  02:19 PM ET, 04/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections, Erdogan, Turkey

Posted at 01:52 PM ET, 04/02/2014

Fulbright’s value in international relations scholarship

The Obama administration wants to cut funding to the Fulbright program. Here’s why that doesn’t make sense to scholars.

By Jarrod Hayes  |  01:52 PM ET, 04/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Fulbright

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 04/02/2014

The midterm penalty is hurting Democrats in the Senate too

It’s another reason why the playing field tilts against Democrats.

By Eric McGhee  |  08:00 AM ET, 04/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 03:03 PM ET, 04/01/2014

Whether or not global warming leads to more war, it hurts vulnerable people

The new IPCC report says there’s a good chance that more global warming will lead to more violent conflict. Even if it doesn’t, it’s likely to hurt people in vulnerable societies.

By Joshua Busby  |  03:03 PM ET, 04/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 04/01/2014

What World War I can tell us about international commerce and war today

World War I is often held up as an example for why economic interdependence does nothing to stop war. A closer look reveals that may be wrong.

By Erik Gartzke and Yonatan Lupu  |  01:00 PM ET, 04/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  World war I

Posted at 11:04 AM ET, 04/01/2014

Petro-aggression: How Russia’s oil makes war more likely

How Russia’s oil income may help fuel its aggression

By Jeff Colgan  |  11:04 AM ET, 04/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Russia

Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 04/01/2014

Five key questions -- and answers -- about France’s election fallout

Last weekend’s municipal elections in France were a referendum on the Socialist government’s performance. It lost, badly, but seems to have no coherent plan for the future.

By Henry Farrell  |  10:15 AM ET, 04/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Comparative Politics, Elections, Europe

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 04/01/2014

The 8 most pivotal Senate seats in 2014

The Monkey Cage’s current forecast of where things stand in key states.

By Ben Highton  |  08:00 AM ET, 04/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 03/31/2014

Understanding death penalty attitudes: Conservatism is not the same as racism

Whites support the death penalty a lot more than blacks. But it didn’t used to be that way.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:00 AM ET, 03/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Death penalty, Polarization, Racism

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/31/2014

Why Republicans can be even more optimistic about taking the Senate

The quality of GOP candidates is putting the Senate well within reach.

By John Sides  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 01:03 PM ET, 03/28/2014

Political controversy has helped fuel Twitter’s growth in Turkey

The political controversies of the last few years are a big reason why Turks have taken to Twitter.

By Neal Caren and Didem T rko lu  |  01:03 PM ET, 03/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Social Media, Turkey

Posted at 11:41 AM ET, 03/28/2014

Will an organization receiving U.S. government funds get away with discriminatory hiring practices?

World Vision U.S. reverses surprisingly progressive move to begin hiring gay Christians in legal same-sex marriages.

By Kim Yi Dionne  |  11:41 AM ET, 03/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Gay Rights

Posted at 11:04 AM ET, 03/28/2014

Should we care about inequality? Let’s ask a philosopher.

Here is what the venerable Jean-Jacques Rousseau can tell us.

By David Lay Williams  |  11:04 AM ET, 03/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Inequality

Posted at 04:09 PM ET, 03/27/2014

Tunisia’s golden age of crony capitalism

In the aftermath of the Tunisian revolution the total worth of the Ben Ali clan’s assets was approximately $13 billion. And it would be a mistake to assume that cronyism ended with his ouster.

By Bob Rijkers, Caroline Freund and Antonio Nucifora  |  04:09 PM ET, 03/27/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ben Ali, Finance, Tunisia

Posted at 11:04 AM ET, 03/27/2014

If Ukraine expropriates Russian firms, other multinationals probably won’t care

If Ukraine expropriates Russian business assets, it shouldn’t worry that this will lead to capital flight. Non-Russian multinationals probably won’t care.

By Rachel Wellhausen  |  11:04 AM ET, 03/27/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Political Economy, Ukraine

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/27/2014

Policymakers are ignoring us, but no more than usual

Public opinion rarely drives policy change, period.

By Matt Grossmann  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/27/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 05:53 PM ET, 03/26/2014

Crimea: Putin’s Olympic diversion

Corruption related to spending on the Sochi Olympics looked certain to become a major headache for Putin, until Crimea took center stage.

By Kimberly Marten  |  05:53 PM ET, 03/26/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Crimea, Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 06:57 PM ET, 03/25/2014

Why do Egyptian courts say the darndest things?

The question isn’t whether the Egyptian judiciary is independent. The real problem goes deeper.

By Nathan J. Brown  |  06:57 PM ET, 03/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Egypt, Judiciary

Posted at 06:44 PM ET, 03/25/2014

Five key questions -- and answers -- about the OSCE mission in Ukraine

Although it has no military ability, the presence of OSCE observers may make it harder for Russia to claim e.g. organized violence against Russian speakers in parts of Ukraine where it isn’t happening.

By Henry Farrell  |  06:44 PM ET, 03/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 03:07 PM ET, 03/25/2014

Obama is about to wade into an insecure Gulf

Saudis complain about the president, but they’ve got bigger issues.

By Marc Lynch  |  03:07 PM ET, 03/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Obama, Saudi Arabia

Posted at 11:41 AM ET, 03/25/2014

Did cutting access to mineral wealth reduce violence in the DRC?

One success story hasn’t ended Congo’s conflicts, and the causes of peace are as complex as the causes of war.

By Laura Seay  |  11:41 AM ET, 03/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics

Posted at 11:16 AM ET, 03/25/2014

What LBJ can teach us about ending gridlock

Effective relationships among political leaders fueled the most productive government of post-World War II era.

By Matt Grossmann  |  11:16 AM ET, 03/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:13 AM ET, 03/25/2014

Mega-dams are a mega-waste of money and resources

A new economic study finds large dams to be an economy-killer, especially in developing countries.

By Andrew Gelman  |  11:13 AM ET, 03/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Dams, Energy, Environment, Public works

Posted at 12:29 PM ET, 03/24/2014

How policymakers ignore the public’s priorities

New research suggests that the public’s agenda rarely leads to policy change.

By John Sides  |  12:29 PM ET, 03/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 03/24/2014

Turkey’s silenced spring

Recent events in Turkey illustrate the problems of conceiving of democracy simply in terms of competitive elections.

By Turkuler Isiksel  |  10:00 AM ET, 03/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Democracy, Freedom of speech, Turkey

Posted at 03:40 PM ET, 03/23/2014

Erdogan’s Twitter flail

Turkey’s internet shutdown doesn’t look Tahrir’s. But that doesn’t mean it won’t matter.

By Navid Hassanpour  |  03:40 PM ET, 03/23/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Social Media, Turkey, Twitter

Posted at 01:20 PM ET, 03/22/2014

Canada’s Supreme Court has rejected its new member. Here’s how this changes Canada’s constitutional debate

Canada’s Supreme Court has ruled that a judge nominated to serve on it is constitutionally ineligible. In one stroke, the Court has changed its own constitutional status and established greater independence.

By Erin Crandall  |  01:20 PM ET, 03/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Canada, Judicial politics

Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 03/22/2014

Why Ukraine’s Euromaidan is not spreading to other post-Soviet states

Unlike the Orange revolution, Euromaidan has not set an example that others want to follow

By Farid Guliyev and Nozima Akhrarkhodjaeva  |  10:30 AM ET, 03/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 04:35 PM ET, 03/21/2014

Turkey’s Twitter ban is not an example of the Streisand Effect

Turkey’s Twitter crackdown is not important because it highlights the possible corruption of the Turkish government. It’s important because it may signal that the government is worried about its electoral prospects.

By Henry Farrell  |  04:35 PM ET, 03/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Comparative Politics, Turkey

Posted at 12:54 PM ET, 03/21/2014

How an election may undermine democracy in Turkey

Erdogan is practicing majoritarian politics in an increasingly polarized political climate.

By Aaron Stein  |  12:54 PM ET, 03/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 10:59 AM ET, 03/21/2014

Robert Strauss is dead, but political parties are alive and well

National Party organizations matter more now than they did in Robert Strauss’s day.

By David Karol  |  10:59 AM ET, 03/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Parties, Polarization, Robert Strauss

Posted at 01:40 PM ET, 03/20/2014

One female president won’t stop sexual violence

Especially when she is concerned with winning office and thus pressured to respond to issues prioritized by voters.

By Kim Yi Dionne and Jenny Trinitapoli  |  01:40 PM ET, 03/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 12:40 PM ET, 03/20/2014

How people in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria feel about annexation by Russia

Majorities in Transnistria and those remaining in South Ossetia favor annexation. Most in Abkhazia prefer independence.

By Gerard Toal and John O’Loughlin  |  12:40 PM ET, 03/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Crimea

Posted at 12:23 PM ET, 03/20/2014

Saudi Arabia’s Muslim Brotherhood predicament

Saudi Arabia has designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization, and the kingdom is unlikely to backtrack on its anti-Islamist stance anytime soon.

By St phane Lacroix  |  12:23 PM ET, 03/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/20/2014

What to expect in the 2014 South African elections

A weakened ANC, a divided opposition, and some voter apathy.

By Dorina A. Bekoe  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report, South Africa

Posted at 05:54 PM ET, 03/19/2014

The downsides of Crimea for Russia

Russia’s problem is not that it lacks territory but that it governs badly the territory it has; Crimea will not improve this state of affairs.

By Timothy Frye  |  05:54 PM ET, 03/19/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 04:19 PM ET, 03/19/2014

The euro is a democratic disaster

Europe is still reeling from the economic damage done by the 2008 financial crisis. The political damage may be even worse.

By Henry Farrell  |  04:19 PM ET, 03/19/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Europe, international political economy, International Relations

Posted at 02:00 PM ET, 03/19/2014

Building a federal Ukraine?

Why federalism is not as bad as its reputation.

By Gwendolyn Sasse  |  02:00 PM ET, 03/19/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Federalism, Ukraine

Posted at 12:36 PM ET, 03/19/2014

Vladimir Putin: Ethnic Russian Nationalist

In his speech on Tuesday, Putin switched adjectives from “Rossisskii” to “Russkii.”Here’s why that’s important.

By Kimberly Marten  |  12:36 PM ET, 03/19/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  nationalism, Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 04:05 PM ET, 03/18/2014

What the search for Flight MH370 tells us about national security in Asia

What began as a search for a plane has become a window into the limited capacity of the governments in the region to monitor and control their territory.

By Jessica Trisko Darden  |  04:05 PM ET, 03/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 09:54 AM ET, 03/18/2014

What is motivating Putin?

Four different possible explanations with different implications for the future.

By Joshua Tucker  |  09:54 AM ET, 03/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Crimea, Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/18/2014

How religious minorities helped rescue Jews in the Netherlands during the Holocaust

Living closer to Catholic churches helped Jews survive in Protestant areas. Living closer to Protestant churches helped in Catholic areas.

By Erik Voeten  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Holocaust

Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 03/17/2014

Why the leaders of Kazakhstan are not (yet) losing sleep over Crimea

The Crimea crisis does not necessarily imply that Russia poses a danger to Kazakhstan, despite the large numbers of ethnic Russians in that country.

By Galymzhan Kirbassov  |  01:00 PM ET, 03/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 03/17/2014

The real reason why millennials don’t trust others

Blame pessmism, not racial diversity or the Internet.

By Eric Uslaner  |  12:00 PM ET, 03/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:45 AM ET, 03/17/2014

What is so great about ‘territorial integrity’ anyway?

Why territorial integrity is a great principle from the perspective of the United States and most other states but not necessarily Russia.

By Erik Voeten  |  11:45 AM ET, 03/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 09:18 AM ET, 03/17/2014

All that is published does not replicate

A survey finds that many attempts to replicate in political science do not succeed.

By Andrew Gelman  |  09:18 AM ET, 03/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Political Science, Replication

Posted at 02:24 PM ET, 03/16/2014

The logic of Russian Internet censorship

Why Russia blocks some opposition Web sites but not others.

By Steven Wilson  |  02:24 PM ET, 03/16/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 04:38 PM ET, 03/14/2014

Mentioning Hitler makes Americans more willing to intervene in Ukraine

A new survey experiment examines the consequences of invoking Hitler’s name.

By John Sides  |  04:38 PM ET, 03/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Public Opinion, Ukraine

Posted at 11:43 AM ET, 03/14/2014

The challenges Democrats face in 2014 (in 2 graphs)

Presidential approval and the economy are weaker than in almost every midterm election since 1954.

By John Sides  |  11:43 AM ET, 03/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 03/14/2014

The problem with #WithSyria

MONKEY CAGE | Americans already know and care about Syria. But they don’t want another war.

By Marc Lynch  |  10:15 AM ET, 03/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Public Opinion, Syria

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/14/2014

Support for same-sex marriage is increasing faster than ever before

Polling data from the last year show an accelerating trend in favor of same-sex marriage.

By Andrew Flores  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Gay Rights

Posted at 04:45 PM ET, 03/13/2014

How Putin’s domestic audience explains Russia’s behavior

In recent years, Putin has become more dependent on a conservative, nationalist constituency in Russia.

By  |  04:45 PM ET, 03/13/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 03:29 PM ET, 03/13/2014

Don’t underestimate importance of religion for understanding Russia’s actions in Crimea

Crimea plays an important role in the history of the Russian Orthodox church.

By Gene Fynes  |  03:29 PM ET, 03/13/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Religion, Ukraine

Posted at 10:19 AM ET, 03/13/2014

House bill would cut social science funding by 42 percent

The House Science Committee is considering a sharp drop in National Science Foundation support for the social sciences.

By John Sides  |  10:19 AM ET, 03/13/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  National Science Foundation

Posted at 06:00 PM ET, 03/12/2014

Why Washington and Moscow keep talking past each other

How a desire to avert losses can explain the current stalemate between Washington and Moscow.

By  |  06:00 PM ET, 03/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 03:49 PM ET, 03/12/2014

Does slacktivism work?

Asking supporters for “likes” on Facebook isn’t the best way to build support for a cause.

By Laura Seay  |  03:49 PM ET, 03/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Advocacy & Activism

Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 03/12/2014

Who predicted Russia’s military intervention?

Scholars at top institutions, Liberals, and Constructivists were least likely to foresee that Russia would intervene militarily in the Ukraine.

By John Sides  |  12:00 PM ET, 03/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 10:25 AM ET, 03/12/2014

The political science of cybersecurity IV: How Edward Snowden helps U.S. deterrence

The likely reason is that Edward Snowden can talk more credibly than U.S. officials about the extent of U.S. cyber-power.

By Henry Farrell  |  10:25 AM ET, 03/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Cybersecurity

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/12/2014

International relations scholars think that the U.S. spends too much on defense

A new snap poll of international relations scholars shows that they believe that the U.S. spends too much on the military.

By Nicholas Bell, Daniel Maliniak, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, Darin Self and and Michael Tierney  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Defense

Posted at 03:00 PM ET, 03/11/2014

Why we should be sober about the long-term prospects of stable democracy in Ukraine

A study of Orange Revolution participants sheds light on the upcoming challenges for Ukrainian democracy.

By  |  03:00 PM ET, 03/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 03/11/2014

A new experiment shows how money buys access to Congress

Two political scientists conducted an experiment on whether Congressional offices responded more to contributors. Here’s what they found.

By John Sides  |  12:00 PM ET, 03/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaign Finance

Posted at 10:31 AM ET, 03/11/2014

Is a ‘national shift toward envy’ underway? Maybe not.

A careful look at poll numbers suggests that a columnist’s alarm about envy is overstated.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:31 AM ET, 03/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  General Social Survey, Public Opinion

Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 03/11/2014

Five things you probably didn’t know about African politics today

Since you already know Africa isn’t a country

By  |  10:30 AM ET, 03/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics

Posted at 09:00 AM ET, 03/11/2014

New contributors are coming aboard!

We welcome four outstanding new voices to The Monkey Cage.

By John Sides  |  09:00 AM ET, 03/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Housekeeping

Posted at 11:01 AM ET, 03/10/2014

Why the Crimean referendum is about strength rather than legitimacy

The Crimea referendum is not an attempt to provide a guise of legitimacy to the annexation but to convey an image of strength.

By Erik Voeten  |  11:01 AM ET, 03/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Crimea

Posted at 10:18 AM ET, 03/10/2014

Ukraine update: A quick guide to our recent scholarly commentary

Looking to get caught up on Ukraine? Here are lots of links to recent commentary on The Monkey Cage.

By Joshua Tucker  |  10:18 AM ET, 03/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/10/2014

Democrats have a young people problem, too

The youngest voters in 2012 favored Romney, not Obama.

By John Sides  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 02:18 PM ET, 03/09/2014

Why Crimea might be worse off under Russian rule

There are strong reasons to believe that these aspects of the peninsula’s governance would fare substantially worse under Moscow’s tutelage.

By Tomila Lankina  |  02:18 PM ET, 03/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 03:35 PM ET, 03/07/2014

Why Eastern Ukraine is an integral part of Ukraine

Data from the 2001 census shows that outside of Crimea, almost all of the counties and cities have a plurality of Ukrainians.

By Ralph S. Clem  |  03:35 PM ET, 03/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:33 AM ET, 03/07/2014

Does money make people conservative? Leading to a discussion of different default models held by economists and political scientists

Thoughts on a study by two economists that finds that people get more conservative after winning the lottery.

By Andrew Gelman  |  11:33 AM ET, 03/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Economics, Voting

Posted at 09:59 AM ET, 03/07/2014

Why Ukraine’s crisis keeps central Asian leaders up at night

For the leaders of the central Asian states, events in Ukraine must be provoking multiple and somewhat contradictory anxieties.

By Marlene Laruelle and Sean Roberts  |  09:59 AM ET, 03/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 07:51 AM ET, 03/07/2014

How Putin needs to play nice with markets

By seeking only to protect themselves from the consequences of politics, investors attach to political action costs that are not easily ignored by politicians. Even Putin.

By Erik Gartzke and Yonatan Lupu  |  07:51 AM ET, 03/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 05:00 PM ET, 03/06/2014

Is Crimean independence or annexation a good outcome for Russia?

No, argue the authors. In the long term, Russia would be better off with Crimea remaining a part of Ukraine.

By Helena Yakovlev-Golani and Nadiya Kravets  |  05:00 PM ET, 03/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  international relations, secession, Ukraine

Posted at 02:37 PM ET, 03/06/2014

Do Crimeans actually want to join Russia?

There are differences in political identities amongst Crimeans and the rest of Ukraine, but, at least before February, these differences did not translate into majority support for independence or union with Russia.

By Grigore Pop-Eleches and Graeme Robertson  |  02:37 PM ET, 03/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Civil conflict, Crimea, international relations, Ukraine, Voting

Posted at 01:36 PM ET, 03/06/2014

‘Cold Wars’: The week in one song

Redux?

By Christopher Federico  |  01:36 PM ET, 03/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Russia, The Week in One Song, Ukraine

Posted at 01:04 PM ET, 03/06/2014

For kin or country: Why the Crimea crisis is not about a Greater Russia project

Here are reasons why Crimea is different from other areas bordering Russia that host large numbers of Russian-speakers

By R. William Ayres and Stephen Saideman  |  01:04 PM ET, 03/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 11:58 AM ET, 03/06/2014

How Putin’s desire to restore Russia to great power status matters

How Putin’s desire to restore Russia to great power status matters for responding to Russia’s aggressive moves in Ukraine.

By Steven Ward  |  11:58 AM ET, 03/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/06/2014

Why most conservatives are secretly liberals

For many Americans, calling themselves “conservative” goes hand in hand with a liberal view of government

By John Sides  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ideology

Posted at 04:20 PM ET, 03/05/2014

Can Americans be sold on Dave Camp’s tax reform?

New research shows that support for popular tax breaks may be soft.

By Christopher Faricy and Christopher Ellis  |  04:20 PM ET, 03/05/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Taxes

Posted at 01:34 PM ET, 03/05/2014

Is greater decentralization a solution for Ukraine? The Mylovanov Initiative

Could political and economic decentralization provide a means to promote democracy and stability in Ukraine?

By Timothy Frye  |  01:34 PM ET, 03/05/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/05/2014

What Russia’s invasion of Georgia means for Crimea

An exclusive interview with the Pentagon official who coordinated the U.S. response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia.

By Stephen Benedict Dyson  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/05/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 05:30 PM ET, 03/04/2014

The ‘failure’ of the ‘reset:’ Obama’s great mistake? Or Putin’s?

The reset’s failure is Russia’s problem, not Washington’s.

By Daniel Nexon  |  05:30 PM ET, 03/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 05:04 PM ET, 03/04/2014

Russia vs. Ukraine: A clash of brothers, not cultures

Countries with shared identities but different political regimes have historically been more likely to fight wars.

By Akos Lada  |  05:04 PM ET, 03/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 11:49 AM ET, 03/04/2014

Time to lay the G-8 to rest

The G-8 was created to encourage Russia to cooperate with the West. It has been eclipsed by the G-20, and has no political purpose now that Putin has set himself against the West.

By James Goldgeier  |  11:49 AM ET, 03/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 03/04/2014

What can passports tell us about Putin’s intentions?

The handing out of passports to Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine suggests that Putin has a long-term plan in Crimea and perhaps more broadly in Ukraine.

By Eric Lohr  |  11:00 AM ET, 03/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  citizenship, international relations, Ukraine

Posted at 09:00 AM ET, 03/04/2014

How might sanctions affect Russia?

While the Russian economy will likely not be overly harmed by sanctions - at least in the short term - they could have ramifications for power struggles within the Kremlin.

By Kimberly Marten  |  09:00 AM ET, 03/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 08:53 AM ET, 03/03/2014

Ukrainians are not that divided in their views of democracy

Ukrainian and Russian speakers have pretty similar attitudes about the desirability and functioning of democratic institutions in the Ukraine

By Pippa Norris  |  08:53 AM ET, 03/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 07:19 PM ET, 03/02/2014

A graph that shows how the Ukraine got stuck between the West and Russia

This graph shows how the positions of the Ukraine, Russia, and the United States in the United Nations have evolved over time.

By Erik Voeten  |  07:19 PM ET, 03/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 07:13 PM ET, 03/02/2014

How Putin’s worldview may be shaping his response in Crimea

The civilizational clash is unraveling not between the East and West of Ukraine, but between Russia and the West.

By Maria Snegovaya  |  07:13 PM ET, 03/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Civil conflict, Crimea, international relations, Ukraine

Posted at 02:52 PM ET, 03/02/2014

International law and institutions look pretty weak now, but they will matter a lot down the road

Why international institutions are going to be crucial for resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict even if they seem feeble now

By Erik Voeten  |  02:52 PM ET, 03/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 12:30 PM ET, 03/02/2014

The ‘Russia reset’ was already dead; now it’s time for isolation

The US and Russia don’t really have strong shared interests. It’s time to abandon fruitless efforts to work together with Putin, and work to isolate him instead.

By James Goldgeier  |  12:30 PM ET, 03/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 08:17 PM ET, 03/01/2014

Obama is using the OSCE to give Russia an exit strategy if it wants one

The Administration is telling Russia how it can achieve its goals through peaceful means. The problem is that Russia may prefer armed intervention.

By Henry Farrell  |  08:17 PM ET, 03/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 02:37 PM ET, 03/01/2014

How big business got behind gay rights

A new book describes why businesses took progressive positions on gay rights long before many politicians.

By John Sides  |  02:37 PM ET, 03/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Gay rights

Posted at 09:22 AM ET, 03/01/2014

Who are the Crimean Tatars, and why are they important?

They constitute a minority of significant size in Crimea that does not support Russian rule.

By Oxana Shevel  |  09:22 AM ET, 03/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 02:50 PM ET, 02/28/2014

5 reasons for everyone to calm down about Crimea

Russia is most likely not about to invade Ukraine. Here’s why.

By Joshua Tucker  |  02:50 PM ET, 02/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Crimea, Separatism, Ukraine

Posted at 10:49 AM ET, 02/28/2014

How to prevent the crisis in Ukraine from escalating

Different narratives of the same events lead to “confirmation bias” which can escalate crises. Being aware of this bias is the first step to mitigating its potential harmful effects.

By Scott Radnitz  |  10:49 AM ET, 02/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Civil conflict, international relations, Ukraine

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 02/28/2014

Why secular but illiberal governments are no guarantee of religious freedom

Recent calls to view post-Soviet Central Asia as a model for political development in the broader Muslim world overlook the fact hostility to religious extremism does not imply an embrace of liberal values.

By Kara Downey  |  10:00 AM ET, 02/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Religion

Posted at 08:54 AM ET, 02/28/2014

The real story behind the FCC’s study of newsrooms

Is the news giving Americans the information they need? You have to do the research to know.

By Lewis Friedland  |  08:54 AM ET, 02/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  media

Posted at 09:54 AM ET, 02/27/2014

What does Ukraine’s #Euromaidan teach us about protest?

Detailed description of the different stages of Ukraine’s protests and what we can learn from these events

By Olga Onuch and Gwendolyn Sasse  |  09:54 AM ET, 02/27/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Protest, Social Media, Ukraine

Posted at 06:06 PM ET, 02/26/2014

In America’s War on Poverty, the free market is AWOL

The expanded safety net has contributed significantly to reducing poverty in America over the past half-century; but our market economy has not

By Larry Bartels  |  06:06 PM ET, 02/26/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  political economy, poverty

Posted at 04:30 PM ET, 02/26/2014

Where are the flawed elections?

New research documents where in the world elections have high or low integrity. The U.S. ranks 26th out of 73.

By Pippa Norris, Richard W. Frank and and Ferran Martinez I Coma  |  04:30 PM ET, 02/26/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Fraud

Posted at 11:46 AM ET, 02/26/2014

Why Ukraine’s Yanukovych fell but so many analysts (including me) predicted he would survive

Yanukovych chose the wrong type of repression - high intensity coercison - for his patronage-based regime.

By Lucan Way  |  11:46 AM ET, 02/26/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Competitive Authoritarianism, Protest, Regime Change, Ukraine

Posted at 11:27 AM ET, 02/25/2014

Sharing qualitative data: the launch of the Qualitative Data Repository

The Qualitative Data Repository aims to increase the transparency and reproducibility of qualitative research.

By Colin Elman and Diana Kapiszewski  |  11:27 AM ET, 02/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Academia, political science

Posted at 09:29 AM ET, 02/25/2014

Bitcoin is like Tinkerbell: If people stop clapping, it’s going to die

If the general public doesn’t start believing in Bitcoin it is likely to evaporate.

By Henry Farrell  |  09:29 AM ET, 02/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  political economy

Posted at 08:24 AM ET, 02/25/2014

Gridlock is bad. The alternative is worse.

The only thing worse than gridlocked political parties that can’t enact their agenda? Unfettered parties that can.

By Morris P. Fiorina  |  08:24 AM ET, 02/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Congress, gridlock, Polarization, reform

Posted at 04:36 PM ET, 02/24/2014

The rise of morality politics in Africa: Talk is cheap and dangerous, but wins votes

Uganda’s anti-homosexuality bill is part of a broader trend towards legislating morality that may win votes but has dangerous consequences.

By Melina Platas Izama  |  04:36 PM ET, 02/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  LGBT Rights

Posted at 02:56 PM ET, 02/24/2014

Is Hagel tying America’s hands (and is that a bad thing)?

Can reducing the size of the military reduce the chance of unwise future military occupations?

By David Edelstein  |  02:56 PM ET, 02/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Defense Budget

Posted at 12:09 PM ET, 02/24/2014

Snowden-type leaks will force the U.S. to be more transparent

The Snowden leaks are forcing the US intelligence community to be more transparent. They may push foreign policy decision makers into being more transparent too.

By Henry Farrell  |  12:09 PM ET, 02/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  cybersecurity, Surveillance

Posted at 01:22 PM ET, 02/21/2014

Being appointed a senator doesn’t help you win the next election

John Walsh’s appointment to the Senate may not help him much in November.

By Ben Highton  |  01:22 PM ET, 02/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 02/21/2014

The Obama campaign won GOTV gold in the 2012 campaign games

New analysis shows how much Obama’s get-out-the-vote drive beat Romney’s.

By Aaron Strauss  |  10:00 AM ET, 02/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 09:57 AM ET, 02/21/2014

Five key questions -- and answers -- about the threat to Volkswagen investment in the South

The head of Volkswagen’s works council has threatened to withdraw support for future investment in the U.S. South, following the failed vote on union recognition.

By Henry Farrell  |  09:57 AM ET, 02/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Unions

Posted at 04:09 PM ET, 02/20/2014

The political science of cybersecurity III -- How international relations theory shapes U.S. cybersecurity doctrine

Basic political science ideas about offense, defense and deterrence shaped the politics of the Cold War. They also shape the politics of cybersecurity today.

By Henry Farrell  |  04:09 PM ET, 02/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  cybersecurity

Posted at 09:24 AM ET, 02/20/2014

Putin and the creative class: Who loves him, who hates him, and who couldn’t care less?

While Russia’s urban elite may loosely support the current regime, it doesn’t trust it and the support doesn’t run very deep.

By Graeme Robertson and Sam Greene  |  09:24 AM ET, 02/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Data, public opinion, Russia, urban elites

Posted at 08:30 AM ET, 02/20/2014

In America, polarization is a problem. In Britain, it could be a solution.

Think the U.S. could use less polarization, more centrist politicians, and maybe a third party? At look at British politics might change your mind.

By Rob Ford  |  08:30 AM ET, 02/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Britain, Polarization, UKIP

Posted at 08:20 AM ET, 02/20/2014

Judges as principled politicians

Why Americans support the Supreme Court more than Congress, even when they believe both are politicized.

By Erik Voeten  |  08:20 AM ET, 02/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Supreme Court

Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 02/19/2014

You can vote twice! The many political appeals of proxy votes in France

How French political parties use proxy votes to win elections

By Baptiste Coulmont, Jo l Gombin and and Arthur Charpentier  |  07:00 AM ET, 02/19/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  France

Posted at 11:49 PM ET, 02/18/2014

What you need to know about Ukraine

What we’ve learned from recent posts by experts on Ukraine that have appeared on The Monkey Cage.

By Joshua Tucker  |  11:49 PM ET, 02/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 05:00 PM ET, 02/18/2014

Campaign contributions and ambassadorships

Campaign contributions are correlated with ambassadorships in countries with pleasant living conditions.

By Erik Voeten  |  05:00 PM ET, 02/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ambassadors

Posted at 10:46 AM ET, 02/18/2014

Wall Street movies predict stock market crashes

Whenever there’s a big Wall Street movie, a stock market crash is soon to follow.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:46 AM ET, 02/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Movies, Wall Street

Posted at 07:37 PM ET, 02/17/2014

Why we can’t see Jordan Davis and why it matters

Stereotypes may have made Davis invisible.

By Corrine McConnaughy  |  07:37 PM ET, 02/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  race

Posted at 12:07 PM ET, 02/17/2014

The culture of corruption: Russians pay, but they don’t like it

Original research finds surprisingly little support among Muscovites for bribe paying.

By Timothy Frye  |  12:07 PM ET, 02/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  corruption, Russia

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 02/17/2014

Why presidents must play the hero

Presidents have no choice but to promise what they can’t deliver.

By Justin Vaughn and Jennifer Mercieca  |  08:00 AM ET, 02/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Presidents

Posted at 06:28 PM ET, 02/15/2014

Dear Nicholas Kristof: We are right here!

Nicholas Kristof thinks academic political scientists have made themselves irrelevant. I happen to disagree.

By Erik Voeten  |  06:28 PM ET, 02/15/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Academia

Posted at 10:05 AM ET, 02/15/2014

Ignore your base at your peril, Bill de Blasio

With a speed and fury unmatched in modern times, Bill de Blasio has turned on his base: elementary school children

By Joshua Tucker  |  10:05 AM ET, 02/15/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  frivolity, New York City, snow

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 02/14/2014

Our political parties are networked, not fragmented

And networked parties aren’t necessarily less effective.

By Seth Masket  |  10:00 AM ET, 02/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Polarization

Posted at 09:35 AM ET, 02/14/2014

Why a Bitcoin vulnerability has undermined the Silk Road

For a while, the Silk Road online drug market allowed criminals to trust each other. Now it appears to be crashing.

By Henry Farrell  |  09:35 AM ET, 02/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  cybersecurity, sociology

Posted at 09:28 AM ET, 02/14/2014

How social media spreads protest tactics from Ukraine to Egypt

You can learn a lot of things on YouTube, including how to defend your square against the police.

By Neil Ketchley  |  09:28 AM ET, 02/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Egypt, learning, Protest

Posted at 02:11 PM ET, 02/13/2014

The political economy of Dutch speed skating success

How privatization may lie at the roots of Dutch speed skating success

By Erik Voeten  |  02:11 PM ET, 02/13/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Olympics, sochi

Posted at 09:15 AM ET, 02/13/2014

Polarization in Congress has risen sharply. Where is it going next?

The weather forecast calls for cooling. This polarization forecast? Not so much.

By Christopher Hare, Keith T. Poole and and Howard Rosenthal  |  09:15 AM ET, 02/13/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Congress, Polarization

Posted at 03:28 PM ET, 02/12/2014

Who are the protesters in Ukraine?

Ukraine’s protests may not be driven by the far right, but they are not supported by a clear majority of Ukrainians...and neither is a turn toward Europe.

By Keith Darden and Lucan Way  |  03:28 PM ET, 02/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Protest, Ukraine

Posted at 11:44 AM ET, 02/12/2014

The political science of cybersecurity II: Why cryptography is so important

Battles over cryptography will help determine the future of the Internet

By Henry Farrell  |  11:44 AM ET, 02/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  cybersecurity, Surveillance

Posted at 09:27 AM ET, 02/12/2014

How ski jumping gets Olympic judging right (and figure skating gets it wrong)

Evidence of vote trading in figure skating judging persists. They could learn from ski jumping judges.

By Eric Zitzewitz  |  09:27 AM ET, 02/12/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Olympics

Posted at 03:24 PM ET, 02/11/2014

Robert Dahl as mentor

The famous political scientist had a more complex relationship with the left than many understood.

By Jeffrey Isaac  |  03:24 PM ET, 02/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Obituary

Posted at 12:56 PM ET, 02/11/2014

Robert Dahl: Scholar, teacher, democrat and mensch

A reflection on the life and work of Robert A. Dahl

By Jennifer Hochschild  |  12:56 PM ET, 02/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  political science

Posted at 12:20 PM ET, 02/11/2014

The Le Pen-Wilders alliance and the European Parliament: Plus a change, plus la meme chose

Why the far right is unlikely to form a powerful party group in the European Parliament.

By Cas Mudde  |  12:20 PM ET, 02/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  European Politics

Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 02/11/2014

A tied Senate could end the filibuster, once and for all

In the wake of a hard-fought election to determine control of the Senate, would the temptation to eliminate the filibuster in order to gain clear control using the simple majority (with the vice president’s vote) be irresistible?

By Richard Arenberg  |  12:00 PM ET, 02/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Senate procedure

Posted at 09:00 AM ET, 02/11/2014

How the “midterm penalty” is hurting Democrats

Obama’s reelection in 2012 is making it harder for Democrats in 2014.

By Eric McGhee  |  09:00 AM ET, 02/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 07:00 AM ET, 02/11/2014

Why it matters what the public thinks about Janet Yellen

The greater the public’s confidence in the Fed (which tracks improvements in the economy), the greater the Fed’s autonomy and ability to make tough policy choices.

By  |  07:00 AM ET, 02/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Federal Reserve

Posted at 01:50 PM ET, 02/10/2014

How tweets helped predict the vote in the Tokyo mayoral election

The frequency of tweets regarding nuclear plants in the run up to the 2014 Tokyo mayor elections helps explain the election result.

By Steve Pickering, Seiki Tanaka and and Kyohei Yamada  |  01:50 PM ET, 02/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections and Voting, Japan, Social Media

Posted at 12:25 PM ET, 02/10/2014

How the 9/11 Commission helped Edward Snowden

The September 11 Commission’s recommendations led to more openness and new technologies within the intelligence community, but also making it easier to mine NSA computers for useful information.

By Henry Farrell  |  12:25 PM ET, 02/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Social Media, Surveillance

Posted at 11:50 AM ET, 02/10/2014

Why the Swiss voted to cap immigration

There’s a puzzle about Switzerland’s vote to cap immigration: The parts of the country with low immigration wanted to block more people coming in, while the parts with high immigration voted against the ban.

By Alexandre Afonso  |  11:50 AM ET, 02/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Europe, European Union, Immigration

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 02/10/2014

The problems with caucuses and conventions

Voters don’t like caucuses, and they may be right.

By Christopher Karpowitz and Jeremy Pope  |  10:00 AM ET, 02/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 08:01 AM ET, 02/10/2014

Politics stops at the water’s edge? Not recently.

If you thought that foreign policy was immune from partisan polarization, think again.

By Robert J. Lieber  |  08:01 AM ET, 02/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  foreign policy, Polarization, public opinion

Posted at 03:41 PM ET, 02/07/2014

How bond markets police balanced budget rules

It’s bond buyers, not lawsuits, that make balanced budget rules work

By Henry Farrell  |  03:41 PM ET, 02/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  European Union, political economy

Posted at 11:44 AM ET, 02/07/2014

Politico mocks and then agrees with our Senate forecast

Our Senate forecast is all, like, “no duh.“

By John Sides  |  11:44 AM ET, 02/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 10:04 AM ET, 02/07/2014

What you need to know about Putin’s popularity

Why did Putin’s popularity plunge in 2011 and then stabilize? It’s (still) the (Russian) economy, stupid.

By Daniel Treisman  |  10:04 AM ET, 02/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 09:41 AM ET, 02/07/2014

A test of Nancy Pelosi’s revolving door hypothesis

The revolving door is very much a congressional phenomenon.

By Tim LaPira and Herschel Thomas III  |  09:41 AM ET, 02/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Lobbying

Posted at 04:26 PM ET, 02/06/2014

How Republicans can win the Senate in 2014

Winning only four key races may be enough for the GOP.

By Ben Highton  |  04:26 PM ET, 02/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 05:00 PM ET, 02/05/2014

Your Sochi 2014 companion: Monkey Cage Russian politics posts

Just in time for Sochi 2014, a series of Russian politics posts are coming to The Monkey Cage! Plus, a video on the history and rules of curling.

By Joshua Tucker  |  05:00 PM ET, 02/05/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Housekeeping, sochi

Posted at 02:24 PM ET, 02/05/2014

In Tokyo elections, Twitter reveals voter preferences in a way surveys do not

An analysis of tweets in Japan reveals important patterns regarding the issues voters care about in upcoming mayoral elections, including some missed by traditional surveys.

By Steve Pickering, Seiki Tanaka and and Kyohei Yamada  |  02:24 PM ET, 02/05/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections and Voting, Japan, Social Media

Posted at 10:43 AM ET, 02/04/2014

Are there genes that lead men to enjoy fighting?

Research links some genes to increased aggression. What does this mean?

By Erik Voeten  |  10:43 AM ET, 02/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  genes

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 02/04/2014

Why you shouldn’t blame polarization on partisan news

Partisan news isn’t more polarizing than mainstream news. (And partisan news viewers are already polarized anyway.)

By Kevin Arceneaux  |  08:00 AM ET, 02/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 02/04/2014

Are voters in an anti-incumbent mood? Don’t count on it.

The public’s dissatisfaction with Congress typically hurts one party, not all incumbents.

By Eric McGhee  |  08:00 AM ET, 02/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 08:48 AM ET, 02/03/2014

Are Fox and MSNBC polarizing America?

Today’s changing media environment mostly affects those voters who are already committed partisans.

By Matt Levendusky  |  08:48 AM ET, 02/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  media, Polarization

Posted at 02:53 PM ET, 02/02/2014

Go for it on fourth down!

Academic research suggests teams are too conservative and would benefit from attempting fewer field goals.

By Joshua Tucker  |  02:53 PM ET, 02/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  frivolity, sports, Super Bowl

Posted at 01:26 PM ET, 02/02/2014

The best television show about politics ever

The Danish drama “Borgen” is a must-watch for the discerning political junkie.

By Stephen Benedict Dyson  |  01:26 PM ET, 02/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Entertainment

Posted at 02:44 PM ET, 01/31/2014

How the Senate is biased toward Republicans

Equal representation of the states in the Senate works to the GOP’s favor.

By Ben Highton  |  02:44 PM ET, 01/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 01:00 PM ET, 01/31/2014

In what country is that country?

Google searches reveal some interesting ideas about geography.

By Erik Voeten  |  01:00 PM ET, 01/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  frivolity

Posted at 09:38 AM ET, 01/31/2014

Are we becoming more tolerant of nepotism?

I’m not sure how best to study this one quantitatively, but it’s a problem worth looking into.

By Andrew Gelman  |  09:38 AM ET, 01/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Nepotism

Posted at 03:29 PM ET, 01/30/2014

What makes some elections violent?

In elections around the world, violence is common. When do leaders exercise restraint in the face of a serious challenger, and when do they resort to electoral violence?

By Emilie M. Hafner-Burton and Susan D. Hyde  |  03:29 PM ET, 01/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections and Voting, journal, violence

Posted at 01:45 PM ET, 01/30/2014

Has California cured its political dysfunction? Not so fast.

The impact of California’s independent redistricting and “top two” primary are still unclear.

By Eric McGhee and Paul Mitchell  |  01:45 PM ET, 01/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  California

Posted at 09:15 PM ET, 01/07/2014

Want to know more about political polarization? The Monkey Cage has answers--and questions.

Want to know what social scientists think is causing today’s political polarization--or where it’s going? This new Monkey Cage series is for you.

By Daniel Hopkins  |  09:15 PM ET, 01/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Polarization, political science

Posted at 09:26 AM ET, 01/03/2014

Republicans’ belief in evolution declining

New surveys show that belief in evolution among Republicans has fallen by one-fifth in four years, and is now substantially lower than among Democrats and Independents.

By Joshua Tucker  |  09:26 AM ET, 01/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 08:57 PM ET, 12/24/2013

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from The Monkey Cage!

That is one adorable monkey on that Christmas tree.

By John Sides  |  08:57 PM ET, 12/24/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 03:07 PM ET, 12/16/2013

Five myths about the future of Obamacare

What political science tells us about whether the Affordable Care Act will endure.

By Eric Patashnik and Julian Zelizer  |  03:07 PM ET, 12/16/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013

A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast

When you hear that an election forecast outperforms the polls, remember that the purpose of a poll is not to predict the election but rather to provide a snapshot of opinion at the time the poll was taken.

By Andrew Gelman  |  02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election forecasting, Polling

Posted at 03:11 PM ET, 12/04/2013

There is no wave coming in the 2014 election

An early version of The Monkey Cage’s forecasting model suggests few House seats will change hands.

By John Sides  |  03:11 PM ET, 12/04/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 09:00 AM ET, 12/02/2013

Political values and scientific attitudes

People feel they have coherent attitudes, even though correlations are low when you consider specific survey responses.

By Andrew Gelman  |  09:00 AM ET, 12/02/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Polarization, Science and Politics

Posted at 01:42 PM ET, 11/26/2013

A diplomatic endgame with Iran? The case for optimism

Convincing Iran to settle for nuclear latency may require some concessions from the United States. But this isn’t surprising.

By Matthew Fuhrmann  |  01:42 PM ET, 11/26/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  international security, Iran, Nuclear Weapons

Posted at 09:51 AM ET, 10/31/2013

Scariest Halloween costumes: HealthCare.gov edition!

What costumes will cause the biggest scare at the homes of Ted Cruz and Kathleen Sebelius? Happy Halloween from The Monkey Cage!

By Joshua Tucker  |  09:51 AM ET, 10/31/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  frivolity, Ted McCagg cartoon

Posted at 12:22 PM ET, 10/16/2013

The recent rate of growth in U.S. debt is not exceptional

Nominal U.S. government debt may have grown considerably in the past four years, but the rate of growth is nothing special in US history.

By Joshua Tucker  |  12:22 PM ET, 10/16/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 01:23 PM ET, 10/06/2013

Concluding the gender gap symposium

This posts concludes the Monkey Cage gender gap symposium and assembles all contributions in one place.

By Erik Voeten  |  01:23 PM ET, 10/06/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  GENDER GAP

Posted at 08:32 AM ET, 10/05/2013

The week in one song: “Grinding Halt”

Pure pop for furloughed people.

By Christopher Federico  |  08:32 AM ET, 10/05/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Government Shutdown

Posted at 01:41 PM ET, 10/04/2013

The gender citations gap: A glass half-full perspective

Beth Simmons focuses on some positive news regarding citations bias

By Erik Voeten  |  01:41 PM ET, 10/04/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  GENDER GAP

Posted at 10:11 AM ET, 10/04/2013

Gender bias in professional networks and citations

David Lake offers personal reflections on the gender gap in academia and what to do about it.

By Erik Voeten  |  10:11 AM ET, 10/04/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  GENDER GAP

Posted at 06:32 AM ET, 10/04/2013

Why is work by women systematically devalued?

The gender citations gap may just be one example of many that show how work by women is devalued.

By Erik Voeten  |  06:32 AM ET, 10/04/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  GENDER GAP

Posted at 06:02 AM ET, 10/04/2013

Governing from the Monkey Cage, discharge rule edition

Many readers say that I prematurely dismissed the power of the discharge rule. Back in the procedural weeds we go.

By Sarah Binder  |  06:02 AM ET, 10/04/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Congress

Posted at 11:35 AM ET, 09/30/2013

Introducing the Monkey Cage gender gap symposium

Why does the gender gap persist in academia? What can be done about it? Our symposium will debate these questions over the course of the week.

By Erik Voeten  |  11:35 AM ET, 09/30/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  GENDER GAP

Posted at 11:02 AM ET, 09/25/2013

Introducing The Monkey Cage

After almost six years as an independent blog, today is our first day at the Washington Post. For new readers, here’s a bit about who we are and what we do.

By John Sides  |  11:02 AM ET, 09/25/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)