The Monkey Cage: Election


Posted at 12:54 PM ET, 03/21/2014

How an election may undermine democracy in Turkey

Erdogan is practicing majoritarian politics in an increasingly polarized political climate.

By Aaron Stein  |  12:54 PM ET, 03/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 03/20/2014

Electing peace in Colombia?

Why a past president would choose to run for the Senate, and the implications of his victory for the prospects of peace in Colombia.

By Abbey Steele  |  10:00 AM ET, 03/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election, Election Report, South America, Voting

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/20/2014

What to expect in the 2014 South African elections

A weakened ANC, a divided opposition, and some voter apathy.

By Dorina A. Bekoe  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report, South Africa

Posted at 10:20 AM ET, 03/17/2014

The key to understanding Indonesia’s upcoming elections? The Jokowi Effect.

It may be more profitable to think through Jokowi’s implications for party politics in Indonesia.

By Tom Pepinsky  |  10:20 AM ET, 03/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 04:30 PM ET, 02/26/2014

Where are the flawed elections?

New research documents where in the world elections have high or low integrity. The U.S. ranks 26th out of 73.

By Pippa Norris, Richard W. Frank and and Ferran Martinez I Coma  |  04:30 PM ET, 02/26/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Fraud

Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014

Republicans have a 54 percent chance of taking the Senate

If one forecast says 44% and the other forecast says 64%, I’d average and say 55%.

By Andrew Gelman  |  12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2014, Election forecasting

Posted at 10:50 AM ET, 12/18/2013

Bachelet returns to power in Chile with impressive victory, but what does low turnout mean for her mandate?

Michele Bachelet was reelected president of Chile with an impressively high 62.5 percent of the vote, but will lower-than-expected turnout hurt her ability to implement serious policy reforms?

By Peter M. Siavelis and Kirsten Sehnbruch  |  10:50 AM ET, 12/18/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Election Report, South America

Posted at 02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013

A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast

When you hear that an election forecast outperforms the polls, remember that the purpose of a poll is not to predict the election but rather to provide a snapshot of opinion at the time the poll was taken.

By Andrew Gelman  |  02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election forecasting, Polling

Posted at 12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013

Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile

Using a variation of the type of poll aggregation models made famous by Nate Silver in the US, the authors did a better job forecasting the outcome of the 2013 Chilean election than any pre-election poll.

By Kenneth Bunker and Stefan Bauchowitz  |  12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Chile, Election forecasting, Latin America, Methodology

Posted at 01:29 PM ET, 11/25/2013

Why victory for Bachelet in Chile is undeniable but bittersweet

Bachelet falls short of a first-round victory and faces an uncertain reform landscape in congress.

By Kirsten Sehnbruch and Peter M. Siavelis  |  01:29 PM ET, 11/25/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Comparative Politics, Election Report

Posted at 01:11 PM ET, 11/11/2013

Bachelet to be elected president of Chile, but then what?

Michelle Bachelet will be the next president of Chile. What this means for the country, however, is less clear.

By Peter M. Siavelis and Kirsten Sehnbruch  |  01:11 PM ET, 11/11/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 04:24 PM ET, 11/10/2013

Buyer’s remorse in Chilean elections?

Progressive voters in Chile may find themselves with a case of buyer’s remorse after a shift from compulsory to voluntary voting.

By John Carey and Yusaku Horiuchi  |  04:24 PM ET, 11/10/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report, Electoral Reform

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 11/04/2013

To understand the emotive part of voters’ decisions, you need numbers

A review of the new book “Double Down” makes an instructive mistake.

By Dan Hopkins  |  10:00 AM ET, 11/04/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2012 election, voting behavior

Posted at 12:57 PM ET, 11/01/2013

Kosovo preelection report: Why who participates is more important than who wins

Will lack of participation by voters in North Kosovo undermine the E.U.-brokered deal between Belgrade and Pristina?

By Marko Zilovic  |  12:57 PM ET, 11/01/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Comparative Politics, Election Report

Posted at 01:31 PM ET, 10/31/2013

Cristina Fern ndez de Kirchner wins, but not by enough: Argentina post-election report

Mid-term elections in Argentina reveal the country is resisting the temptation to become a normal and boring country.

By Julia Pomares  |  01:31 PM ET, 10/31/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Repo

Posted at 05:46 AM ET, 10/30/2013

The Czech paradox: Did the winner lose and the losers win?

The ultimate loser of the 2013 parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic may prove to be the party that won the most votes, the Czech Social Democrats.

By Tim Haughton, Tereza Novotna and Kevin Deegan-Krause  |  05:46 AM ET, 10/30/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 07:26 PM ET, 10/23/2013

Why threaten to drop out of a presidential election you are likely to win?

The leading candidate in Georgia’s presidential election has announced he will not participate in a second round if he does not win the first round outright.

By Bret Barrowman  |  07:26 PM ET, 10/23/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 02:21 PM ET, 10/22/2013

2013 Chile pre-election report: Bachelet will likely win, but watch the legislative results

Michelle Bachelet is very likely to win the upcoming Chilean presidential election. The interesting question is whether she will have enough support in the legislature to also reform the Constitution.

By Kenneth Bunker  |  02:21 PM ET, 10/22/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 03:37 PM ET, 10/07/2013

Can social media level the playing field in competitive authoritarian regimes? Azerbaijani pre-election report, part II.

In Azerbaijan, some opposition activists embrace the potential of social media as a political tool, but the government is never far behind.

By Joshua Tucker  |  03:37 PM ET, 10/07/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 09:57 AM ET, 10/06/2013

The Challenges of Electoral Competition in an Oil Rich State: Azerbaijani Pre-Election Report

On Tuesday, Azerbaijanis head to the polls to re-elect their president for a controversial third term. Our election report examines the politics of elections in an oil rich state.

By Joshua Tucker  |  09:57 AM ET, 10/06/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report

Posted at 04:10 PM ET, 10/02/2013

Why do leaders manipulate (or not) elections? Revisiting the 2013 Moscow mayoral elections.

In last month’s Moscow mayoral election, the puzzle may be why the incumbent, Sergei Sobyanin, permitted a relatively open election.

By Joshua Tucker  |  04:10 PM ET, 10/02/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report, election reports

Posted at 09:57 PM ET, 09/30/2013

The 2013 Austrian Elections: Standing Still Despite Change?

Can one election bring about both stability and change? Welcome to Austria’s 2013 parliamentary election results.

By Joshua Tucker  |  09:57 PM ET, 09/30/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  election reports

Posted at 03:34 PM ET, 09/27/2013

Australia’s 2013 election: A divided left and a step to the right

What do the 2013 parliamentary election results mean for the future of Australia?

By Joshua Tucker  |  03:34 PM ET, 09/27/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Australia, election reports

Posted at 10:55 AM ET, 09/27/2013

Has Germany reached a turning point? Whither the SPD and the arrival of political euroskepticism

Merkel’s victory may have obscured an equally important development moving forward: the arrival of political euroskepticism in Germany.

By Joshua Tucker  |  10:55 AM ET, 09/27/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  election reports

Posted at 08:41 PM ET, 09/25/2013

German Post-Election Analysis: Merkel Wins! Sort of

Despite winning by a larger margin than in previous German elections, Angela Merkel finds herself in a tricky position as she seeks to form a government.

By Joshua Tucker  |  08:41 PM ET, 09/25/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  election reports