The Monkey Cage: Election forecasting


Posted at 12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014

Republicans have a 54 percent chance of taking the Senate

If one forecast says 44% and the other forecast says 64%, I’d average and say 55%.

By Andrew Gelman  |  12:00 PM ET, 01/29/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2014, Election forecasting

Posted at 02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013

A poll is a snapshot, not a forecast

When you hear that an election forecast outperforms the polls, remember that the purpose of a poll is not to predict the election but rather to provide a snapshot of opinion at the time the poll was taken.

By Andrew Gelman  |  02:25 PM ET, 12/10/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election forecasting, Polling

Posted at 12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013

Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile

Using a variation of the type of poll aggregation models made famous by Nate Silver in the US, the authors did a better job forecasting the outcome of the 2013 Chilean election than any pre-election poll.

By Kenneth Bunker and Stefan Bauchowitz  |  12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Chile, Election forecasting, Latin America, Methodology