The Monkey Cage: Elections


Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 04/03/2014

‘No Opposition, No Democracy’ in Turkey’s elections

Turkey has generally been recognized for free and fair elections. What went wrong this time?

By Lisel Hintz  |  12:45 PM ET, 04/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Cat, Elections, Erdogan, Turkey, Twitter

Posted at 02:19 PM ET, 04/02/2014

Erdo an’s next moves

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo an is likely to take his AKP victory in local elections as a popular seal of approval, and it could have broad implications for Turkey’s turbulent political landscape.

By Gonul Tol  |  02:19 PM ET, 04/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections, Erdogan, Turkey

Posted at 10:15 AM ET, 04/01/2014

Five key questions -- and answers -- about France’s election fallout

Last weekend’s municipal elections in France were a referendum on the Socialist government’s performance. It lost, badly, but seems to have no coherent plan for the future.

By Henry Farrell  |  10:15 AM ET, 04/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Comparative Politics, Elections, Europe

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 03/10/2014

Democrats have a young people problem, too

The youngest voters in 2012 favored Romney, not Obama.

By John Sides  |  08:00 AM ET, 03/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 01:22 PM ET, 02/21/2014

Being appointed a senator doesn’t help you win the next election

John Walsh’s appointment to the Senate may not help him much in November.

By Ben Highton  |  01:22 PM ET, 02/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 02/21/2014

The Obama campaign won GOTV gold in the 2012 campaign games

New analysis shows how much Obama’s get-out-the-vote drive beat Romney’s.

By Aaron Strauss  |  10:00 AM ET, 02/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 09:00 AM ET, 02/11/2014

How the “midterm penalty” is hurting Democrats

Obama’s reelection in 2012 is making it harder for Democrats in 2014.

By Eric McGhee  |  09:00 AM ET, 02/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 01:50 PM ET, 02/10/2014

How tweets helped predict the vote in the Tokyo mayoral election

The frequency of tweets regarding nuclear plants in the run up to the 2014 Tokyo mayor elections helps explain the election result.

By Steve Pickering, Seiki Tanaka and and Kyohei Yamada  |  01:50 PM ET, 02/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections and Voting, Japan, Social Media

Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 02/10/2014

The problems with caucuses and conventions

Voters don’t like caucuses, and they may be right.

By Christopher Karpowitz and Jeremy Pope  |  10:00 AM ET, 02/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 11:44 AM ET, 02/07/2014

Politico mocks and then agrees with our Senate forecast

Our Senate forecast is all, like, “no duh.“

By John Sides  |  11:44 AM ET, 02/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 04:26 PM ET, 02/06/2014

How Republicans can win the Senate in 2014

Winning only four key races may be enough for the GOP.

By Ben Highton  |  04:26 PM ET, 02/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 09:00 AM ET, 02/06/2014

For Democrats running for Senate, 2014 is an unlucky year

This year’s Senate seats are in redder states than seats up in other years.

By Ben Highton  |  09:00 AM ET, 02/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 02:24 PM ET, 02/05/2014

In Tokyo elections, Twitter reveals voter preferences in a way surveys do not

An analysis of tweets in Japan reveals important patterns regarding the issues voters care about in upcoming mayoral elections, including some missed by traditional surveys.

By Steve Pickering, Seiki Tanaka and and Kyohei Yamada  |  02:24 PM ET, 02/05/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections and Voting, Japan, Social Media

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 02/04/2014

Are voters in an anti-incumbent mood? Don’t count on it.

The public’s dissatisfaction with Congress typically hurts one party, not all incumbents.

By Eric McGhee  |  08:00 AM ET, 02/04/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 02:44 PM ET, 01/31/2014

How the Senate is biased toward Republicans

Equal representation of the states in the Senate works to the GOP’s favor.

By Ben Highton  |  02:44 PM ET, 01/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 03:29 PM ET, 01/30/2014

What makes some elections violent?

In elections around the world, violence is common. When do leaders exercise restraint in the face of a serious challenger, and when do they resort to electoral violence?

By Emilie M. Hafner-Burton and Susan D. Hyde  |  03:29 PM ET, 01/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections and Voting, journal, violence

Posted at 02:06 PM ET, 01/25/2014

Americans may be divided on abortion, but it won’t matter for the midterms

Growing partisan polarization on abortion makes it less likely the issue will decide elections.

By Alan I. Abramowitz  |  02:06 PM ET, 01/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections, Polarization

Posted at 08:00 AM ET, 01/23/2014

Data and analytics have changed campaigns. Now what’s next?

It’s important to acknowledge the challenges facing data and analytics too.

By John Sides  |  08:00 AM ET, 01/23/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 06:01 PM ET, 01/22/2014

American elections need help. Here’s how to make them better.

A new report from the Presidential Commission on Election Administration offers important guidance.

By Nathaniel Persily  |  06:01 PM ET, 01/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 10:24 PM ET, 01/18/2014

The Democratic Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016

If the political and economic fundamentals don’t change, it’s actually the Republicans who’ll have the upper hand in 2016.

By John Sides  |  10:24 PM ET, 01/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 08:38 AM ET, 01/09/2014

Why Chris Christie should hope ghosts aren’t real

My dad hated traffic. And so do an awful lot of other people, I’m guessing.

By Joshua Tucker  |  08:38 AM ET, 01/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, frivolity

Posted at 04:29 PM ET, 01/06/2014

The real effects of the European elections may be felt in London and Edinburgh rather than in Brussels

How the upcoming European elections could affect Scotland’s quest for independence.

By Cas Mudde  |  04:29 PM ET, 01/06/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  European Elections

Posted at 08:19 AM ET, 12/20/2013

Democrats currently have a 1 percent chance of retaking the House

Our forecasting model for the 2014 midterm elections still has little good news for Democrats.

By John Sides  |  08:19 AM ET, 12/20/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections

Posted at 10:50 AM ET, 12/18/2013

Bachelet returns to power in Chile with impressive victory, but what does low turnout mean for her mandate?

Michele Bachelet was reelected president of Chile with an impressively high 62.5 percent of the vote, but will lower-than-expected turnout hurt her ability to implement serious policy reforms?

By Peter M. Siavelis and Kirsten Sehnbruch  |  10:50 AM ET, 12/18/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Election Report, South America

Posted at 12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013

Latin America gets its own 538.com, and it beats the polls in Chile

Using a variation of the type of poll aggregation models made famous by Nate Silver in the US, the authors did a better job forecasting the outcome of the 2013 Chilean election than any pre-election poll.

By Kenneth Bunker and Stefan Bauchowitz  |  12:32 PM ET, 12/09/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Chile, Election forecasting, Latin America, Methodology

Posted at 01:29 PM ET, 11/25/2013

Why victory for Bachelet in Chile is undeniable but bittersweet

Bachelet falls short of a first-round victory and faces an uncertain reform landscape in congress.

By Kirsten Sehnbruch and Peter M. Siavelis  |  01:29 PM ET, 11/25/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Comparative Politics, Election Report

Posted at 12:32 PM ET, 11/07/2013

Can competitive elections decrease investment? Yes.

When elections are competitive, people hold off on making investments that would be costly to unload.

By Brandice Canes-Wrone and Jee-Kwang Park  |  12:32 PM ET, 11/07/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, political economy

Posted at 09:38 AM ET, 11/05/2013

Fixing elections: What the U.S. can learn from Britain

How to make elections run more smoothly? Publishing rankings of the performance of local election administration may help.

By Toby James  |  09:38 AM ET, 11/05/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections

Posted at 12:57 PM ET, 11/01/2013

Kosovo preelection report: Why who participates is more important than who wins

Will lack of participation by voters in North Kosovo undermine the E.U.-brokered deal between Belgrade and Pristina?

By Marko Zilovic  |  12:57 PM ET, 11/01/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Campaigns and Elections, Comparative Politics, Election Report

Posted at 10:01 AM ET, 10/28/2013

Republicans on track to retain control of House in 2014

A historically-based forecast using the generic congressional ballot suggests that the Republicans will retain control of the House in 2014.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:01 AM ET, 10/28/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  2014, Congress, Elections, forecasting

Posted at 12:25 PM ET, 09/30/2013

Should losing a presidential election mean giving up your agenda?

Losing parties often keep the same agenda, and there’s nothing inherently wrong with that.

By John Sides  |  12:25 PM ET, 09/30/2013 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections