The Fix: Florida
Rep. Mica defeats Rep. Adams in Florida; Rep. Stearns on verge of defeat
Rep. John Mica defeated Rep. Sandy Adams in a member-versus member primary in Florida on Tuesday, while another of the state’s Republicans, Rep. Cliff Stearns, appeared to have lost in a shocker.
Mica, the chairman of the House transportation committee and a 19-year incumbent, beat the freshman Adams after tea party groups declined to take an active role on her behalf.
Primary day: Five things you need to know in Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin
Voters head to the polls in four states today, with Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin holding congressional primaries.
Connecticut House Speaker and Democratic congressional candidate Chris Donovan is favored to win his primary today despite the arrests of two top aides. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill, File)As usual, The Fix has zeroed in on five things to watch as the results roll in tonight:
1. The most expensive congressional primary in the country
That would be Connecticut’s 5th district, where seven candidates have raised at least $600,000 and five have raised more than $1 million. A total of nearly $10 million has already been raised just to decide each party’s nominee.
The most interesting subplot is on the Democratic side, where state House Speaker Chris Donovan remains the favorite despite the fact that his campaign manager and top fundraiser have both been arrested and charged with corruption. Organized labor and progressive groups remain firmly behind Donovan, who has not been implicated in the wrongdoing and has won the state party’s endorsement as well.
GOP Senate candidates mixed on inviting Ryan to campaign for them
Republican Senate candidates in some marquee races say they would be happy to campaign with the GOP’s new vice presidential candidate, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)
But others are apparently resistant to the idea.
Democrats have attempted to attach Ryan and his plan to Republicans all over the country, labeling Ryan their “running mate” and hoping his controversial Medicare plan hurts downballot GOPers.
New poll shows Obama with significant lead in swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania
President Obama has cracked 50 percent and is leading presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney in a trio of key swing states, according to new polling.
The CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University polls show Obama ahead of Romney in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all by at least six points. Obama is up in Florida 51 percent to 45 percent; in Ohio 50 percent to 44 percent; and in Pennsylvania by double digits — 53 percent to 42 percent .
Obama’s immigration decision turns off voters in three swing states
President Obama’s decision to exempt young illegal immigrants from deportation may not be the electoral boon it’s cracked up to be.
And in fact, it appears to be turning off more voters than it mobilizes in three key states, according to new polling from Quinnipiac University.
The Quinnipiac polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania show that, while most voters still like the policy and Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in all three states, the opposition to the move appears to be significantly more motivated by it — particularly in the two Midwestern states.
George LeMieux drops out of Florida Senate race
Updated at 11:12 a.m.
Former senator George LeMieux (R-Fla.) announced Wednesday that he will end his Senate campaign, citing a lack of resources, and endorsed Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.).
“As a former party chairman, I know that sometimes for the good of the party, and the good of the nation, a candidate has to bow out gracefully,” LeMieux said in a Web message thanking supporters. “In order to have the best chance to defeat (Sen.) Bill Nelson and put the Senate in Republican hands, today we will end our campaign.”
Obama holds slight lead in three key swing states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia
More and more, the 2012 presidential election is looking like it will be very, very close.
While national polling has borne this out for weeks now, perhaps more telling are new polls in a trio of major swing states that could well decide the election — Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
(AP)
President Obama holds a narrow lead in all three, according to new polling from NBC News and Marist College. But the polls also indicate Mitt Romney is well within striking distance in each state.
The Marist polls show Obama at 48 percent in all three, while Romney trails by just a few points in each.
Here’s the rundown:
Florida: Obama 48, Romney 44
Ohio: Obama 48, Romney 42
Virginia: Obama 48 , Romney 44
While Obama leads in all three states, there are some good signs for Romney.
Mitt Romney makes leap with Hispanics
Once thought to have a potential liability in appealing to Hispanics, Mitt Romney appears to have overcome his doubters.
One of Romney’s more remarkable turnarounds in the Florida primary between 2008 and 2012 was among the state’s many Hispanic voters. While he increased his vote share overall by 15 points, from 31 percent to 46 percent, he increased his performance among Hispanics by 40, from 14 percent in 2008 to 54 percent on Tuesday, according to exit polls.
That’s a pretty huge improvement, but how much does it mean going forward?
Space for conservative alternative to Mitt Romney shrinks
Both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum have argued for weeks over who is the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, and both have said that they can win if the right wing of the GOP coalesces behind one candidate.
Tuesday’s result in Florida casts doubt on that theory.
For one thing, Romney’s share of the vote, 46 percent, was more than the total of Gingrich (32 percent) and Santorum (13 percent) combined, according to results available late Tuesday night. And the rest of the vote went to a decidedly non-traditional Republican, Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas).
5 lessons the Florida primary taught us
There wasn’t much drama in the Florida Republican primary on Tuesday night. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney pulled away to a convincing enough victory that the race was called for him within moments of polls closing.
But, that dearth of drama doesn’t mean that there weren’t lessons learned from Tuesday’s vote in the Sunshine State that can be carried forward as the race moves to Nevada and beyond.
Mitt Romney’s Florida sweep — and how it changes the presidential race
Mitt Romney’s across-the-board victory in the Florida Republican presidential primary on Tuesday night serves as a direct rebuttal to the criticism that he simply isn’t conservative enough to be the party’s nominee and leaves his remaining rivals with few obvious next steps as the nomination fight moves to Nevada next month.
Rep. Allen West to seek reelection in new district
Updated at 6:52 p.m. with news that Hasner will run in West’s district
Tea party firebrand Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) announced Tuesday that he will switch districts and run for reelection in Florida’s new 18th district.
West’s 22nd district, which was already Democratic-leaning, got even tougher under a new GOP redistricting plan released last week. The new district would have gone about 57 percent for President Obama in the 2008 presidential race.
Florida primary’s winner-take-all delegate situation, explained
There is a good bit of confusion about how Florida will award its delegates following today’s primary.
So, to clear things up, here’s where we stand:
A new Republican National Committee rule says that no state holding its presidential contest before April is allowed to award its delegates to the national convention on a winner-take-all basis, unless it is one of the four early carve-out states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada).
Florida primary: The Fix prediction contest!
Think you know how today’s Florida primary is going to turn out? Want to win an official Fix t-shirt?
If you answered “yes” to both those questions — and we are assuming you did if you read this blog — then make sure to vote in the Fix Florida primary prediction contest!
In the comments section below, offer your prediction for the finish of all four candidates — with percentages (please limit yourself to one decimal place). As a tie-breaker, predict total turnout for tonight’s vote.
Get predicting!
It’s Mitt Romney’s race to lose ... again
A lot can happen in four days, but as of today, the Florida primary and the GOP presidential race are again Mitt Romney’s to lose.
After a brief diversion in the South Carolina primary, Romney is once again the clear favorite in Florida, having taken a 9-point lead in the latest Florida poll. And if he wins there, it’s hard to see where he might slip up again.
Florida primary playlist: A Fix List!
If you ever read this blog, you know that we love lists. And primaries, and music. We’re trying to bring that all together by making playlists for every primary state. But we need your help.
Suggest your Florida-related songs using the hashtag #fixplaylist, and we’ll come up with a playlist to listen to while we wait for the returns on Tuesday night.
Tweet #fixplaylistUPDATE: Here’s our list: (If you have Spotify, you can download it here.)
Against Me! – Sink, Florida, Sink
The Felice Brothers – Honda Civic
Muddy Waters – Deep Down In Florida
Tom Petty And The Heartbreakers – Breakdown
Black Kids – I’m Not Gonna Teach Your Boyfriend How To Dance With You
The Mountain Goats – Tallahassee
Less Than Jake – Gainesville Rock City
The Hold Steady – Slapped Actress
Mitt Romney back in the lead in Florida
Mitt Romney has regained his frontrunner status in the Florida primary, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac University.
The poll shows that, even before Thursday’s debate in which Romney appeared to get the better of Newt Gingrich, the former Massachusetts governor had opened up a substantial lead in the state’s primary Tuesday.
CNN debate in Florida: A Fix live chat
Tonight in Jacksonville, Florida, the final four Republican presidential candidates hold their last debate of a debate-filled month.
The debate is on CNN; Wolf Blitzer is moderating. (The TV-free can watch online here.) Things kick off at 8 p.m. eastern time, but we’re chatting starting at 7:30.
Florida Republican debate No. 2: What to watch for
Tonight marks the 19th debate in the Republican presidential contest, the second Florida debate before Tuesday’s primary, and the last debate for nearly a month.
The stakes could hardly be higher, with both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich arguably needing a win in Florida. So tonight’s debate is about as big as they come.
Breaking down the Florida GOP’s redistricting map
Florida Republicans have apparently settled on a new congressional map they hope will help them cement their overwhelming majority in the state’s delegation for a decade to come.
While the state’s GOP lawmakers have been tossing around a series of proposals for the past few weeks, sources tell The Fix that they have settled on a map that is expected to pass out of the state legislature in the coming days. (The map can be viewed here.)
Why Newt Gingrich needs to win Florida
It’s no secret that the Florida primary is a must-win for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney. But, it’s also a victory that former House speaker Newt Gingrich needs to have too.
The reasons for the necessity of Romney winning Florida are well-known: a second-straight loss, coupled with his longtime frontrunner status, could well collapse his campaign under its own weight.
Why the tea party is responsible for Newt Gingrich
We may not be attributing Newt Gingrich’s rise to the tea party. But maybe we should.
Even as the movement’s influence in the GOP appears to have waned over the past year, there remains one major remnant of what happened in 2010: anti-establishment fervor.
The tea party spurred momentum and turnout for the GOP two years ago, but it also caused it some headaches in the primaries, turning aside candidates who were clearly favored by the party establishment in favor of conservative wild cards that went on to mixed results in November.
Florida Republican debate: Winners and losers
The 18th — yes, eighteenth! — debate of the Republican presidential primary ended after most reasonable people had already gone to bed on Monday night.
But, the Fix never sleeps — or, more accurately, rarely sleeps — so not only did we live-blog the entire thing but we also came up with some winners and losers from the debate that was. We spent a night letting our thoughts marinate so they should be good and flavorful this morning.
A new Newt (again)?
Goodbye South Carolina rabble-rouser Newt Gingrich. Hello Florida frontrunner Newt Gingrich.
The former House speaker created momentum for himself in the GOP presidential race — twice — with fiery debate performances in which he decried elites, attacked the media and cited Saul Alinsky ad nauseam.
But that Newt was nowhere to be seen at Monday’s debate.
Tampa, Florida NBC debate: The live-blog!
Welcome to the eighteenth debate of the Republican primary!
This debate is in Tampa, Florida and NBC News’ Brian Williams is moderating. For those of you without TV, you can watch online here.
The debate starts at 9 p.m., but we’ll be liveblogging here ten or fifteen minutes before the action starts.
If you’ve never participated in one of our liveblogs, it’s like watching the debate with a bunch of politics nerds. It’s fun. We promise.
Florida Republican debate: What to watch for
With the political world — or at least former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — still reeling from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s convincing win in South Carolina, the four men still competing for the Republican presidential nomination will take the stage in Tampa tonight for their 17th debate.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas,, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry (L-R) listen to a question from NBC Meet the Press moderator David Gregory during a Republican presidential candidate debate at the Capitol Center for the Arts in Concord, N.H., Sunday, Jan. 8, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)NBC will be airing the entire two-hour affair beginning at 9 p.m. eastern time and the Fix will be live-blogging as well (a cheer goes up from the crowd!).
Until then, you can either stare at the clock waiting for the moment to arrive or read our preview of the best storylines to keep an eye on tonight. We recommend the latter option.
Newt Gingrich’s rise — in one chart
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s rise (again) in the presidential race has been as meteoric as it has been surprising.
Nothing captures that ascent as well as Gallup’s latest tracking poll, which, when viewed from even a slight distance, captures the new normal of the presidential race.
The orange line below tracks Gingrich’s standing in the Gallup poll since early November. The black line represents the poll numbers of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
Obama campaign keeps focus on Mitt Romney, says he’s weakened
Mitt Romney may not be the clear frontrunner in the GOP presidential race any more, but that doesn’t mean President Obama’s campaign is going to let up on him any time soon.
Despite Newt Gingrich’s momentum in the GOP race, Obama’s campaign is keeping the focus on Romney, arguing in a memo released today that the former Massachusetts governor’s loss in South Carolina betrays weaknesses in his candidacy and that he’s got a tough road ahead in the Florida primary next week.
“The bottom line is this: the more voters learn about Romney, the more unfavorably they view him,” Obama campaign manager Jim Messina wrote.
Mitt Romney’s Hispanic dilemma
On Wednesday morning, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney put out an ad in Spanish in Florida. That afternoon, he touted the endorsement of Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who co-authored the controversial immigration laws in Arizona and Alabama.
That juxtaposition shows the difficult path the frontrunner is facing as he seeks to simultaneously wrap up the Republican nomination while also beginning to move to the ideological center for the general election.
Pro-Mitt Romney super PAC goes in for the kill in Florida
Mitt Romney won in New Hampshire on Tuesday, and his supporters are now moving in for the kill.
The super PAC supporting Romney’s campaign has increased its ad buy in Florida by $3.6 million — a huge number that comes on top of the $2.3 million in ads the super PAC, Restore Our Future, bought in South Carolina on Monday. A super PAC source confirmed the numbers to The Fix.
Afternoon Fix: Mitt Romney going on air in Florida
Mitt Romney is going on the air in Florida, Rick Santorum’s nephew is endorsing Ron Paul, Sarah Palin wants Michele Bachmann to drop out and the Iowa caucuses are tonight.
Make sure to sign up to get “Afternoon Fix” in your e-mail inbox every day by 5 (ish) p.m!
Mitt Romney seeks to end GOP contest in January
Mitt Romney is preparing a broad strategy after Iowa’s caucuses tonight, apparently hoping to close out the GOP presidential contest before the calendar turns to February.
The Post’s Phil Rucker reported last night that the former Massachusetts governor will head to South Carolina later this week, a sign he is prepared to fight in a state that has been less than hospitable to him since 2008. And a GOP source tells The Fix that Romney’s campaign is going up with an ad buy in Florida starting tomorrow. (New Hampshire is set to hold a primary on Jan. 10 followed by South Carolina on Jan. 21 and Florida on Jan. 31.)
As Florida moves to January, New Hampshire threatens December primary
The 2012 Republican presidential nominating contest will begin in January or earlier, but its exact kick off is still up in the air and likely won’t be known on Friday.
Florida put the map in flux this morning after a commission officially chose Jan. 31 for its primary date. That runs afoul of Republican National Committee rules by leapfrogging the four states the RNC has permitted to precede the others.
Florida moves toward January primary
(Updated at 12:24 p.m. with comment from Iowa and New Hampshire GOP leaders)
Florida state House Speaker Dean Cannon (R) says his state is likely to set its primary for Jan. 31, which would probably have have the effect of pushing the presidential primary process up one month to begin shortly after the New Year.
Herman Cain explained
Herman Cain is on a roll. Off a solid performance in Thursday night’s debate, the former Godfathers’ Pizza CEO won a straw poll in Florida — one that has predicted the Republican presidential nominee every time it’s been held. It’s still very unlikely that Cain will continue that streak. But he’s not thinking of dropping out anymore. So who is Herman Cain, and how did he get here?
Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain talks to reporters as dozens of Tea Party supporters rally near the U.S. Capitol against raising the debt limit in Washington, July 27, 2011.
(JONATHAN ERNST - REUTERS)
Cain, 65, grew up in Georgia and graduated from Morehouse College; he has a master’s in computer science from Purdue University. His business career started at the Coca-Cola Company. From there, he went to Philadelphia and managed to turn the city’s Burger Kings profitable.
That success led him to his best known post: stabilizing the Nebraska-based Godfather’s Pizza franchise, which he took over in 1986 after managing to turn around Burger King in Philadelphia. At Godfather’s, Cain cut some troubled franchises, launched some inventive advertising campaigns and got rid of unpopular menu items.
Herman Cain wins Florida straw poll
Former Godfather’s Pizza executive Herman Cain has won the Presidency 5 Straw Poll, scoring a runaway victory in the Florida survey of GOP activists.
Cain took more than 37 percent of the vote in the eight-candidate field, finishing far ahead of second-place Rick Perry (15 percent) and third-place Mitt Romney (14 percent).
The Florida Republican presidential debate: What we learned
Since the Florida Republican presidential debate ended 12 hours ago, we’ve been reflecting on lessons learned from the night. (Man that looks WAY nerdier now that we see it written down.)
Republican presidential candidates, from left, Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, businessman Herman Cain, Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, applaud before a Republican presidential debate Monday, Sept. 12, 2011, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson)
(Mike Carlson - AP)
Our take on what we should take from the Tampa CNN/Tea Party Express debate is after the jump.
Florida Republican presidential debate: Winners and losers
The fourth debate of the 2012 Republican presidential race is in the books!
Texas Governor Rick Perry (R) and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney exchange comments during the CNN/Tea Party Republican presidential candidates debate in Tampa, Florida, September 12, 2011. REUTERS/Scott Audette After live-blogging the proceedings, we turn to our favorite part of any debate night: looking at who won and who lost.
Our take is below. Agree or disagree with our picks? Leave a question or comment for today’s Fix Face-off video Q&A, or in the comments section below.
Live-blogging the Florida Republican debate
At 8 p.m. tonight, eight Republican presidential candidates will take the stage in Tampa, Florida for the fourth major debate of the 2012 race.
Republican presidential candidates sing the National Anthem before the CNN/Tea Party Debate. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)
(Chris O'Meara - AP)
And the Fix will be bringing every minute, no, every second of the action to you in our live-blog. We’ll pregame around 7:30 pm — warming up our typing fingers and comic stylings for the 8 p.m. kickoff. (Speaking of kickoffs, we will also keep an eye on the Patriots-Dolphins game that starts at 7 pm.)
Never participated in one of our live blogs before? (Shame!) We like to think of it as “Mystery Science Theater 3000” but for politics. And without the robots.
Join us. It’ll be fun. If not, we’ll give you your money back.
GOP debate in Florida: What to watch for
For the second time in five days, eight Republican candidates for president will gather on a debate stage — this time in the all-important state of Florida.
Republican presidential candidates will debate tonight in Florida. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)
The proceedings get started at 8 pm eastern time on CNN and we will be live-blogging every minute of it right here! But, what do you do to kill time before tonight?
Never fear. Below you’ll find our Cliff Notes version of what you should watch for tonight. See you at 8!
Rick Perry: The most electable GOP candidate?
One in an occasional series of posts looking at the most important number in politics; check out past “MINP’s” here.
42A single number in the new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released this morning epitomizes the challenge before former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney when it comes to Texas Gov. Rick Perry.
Texas Governor and Presidential hopeful Rick Perry, gives a "thumbs up" sign to supporters as he leaves a town hall meeting hosted by Rep. Tim Scott, R-S.C., at Horry-Georgetown Technical College on Monday Sept. 5, 2011 in Conway, S.C. (AP Photo/Willis Glassgow)
Asked which of the Republican candidates had the best chance of beating President Obama next November, 42 percent chose Perry while 26 percent named Romney. No other candidate won double-digit support.
Couple those numbers with the fact that three-quarters of Republicans in that same poll say they prefer a candidate who can beat Obama to one that agrees with them on every issue and you begin to see the shape of Romney’s potential problem.
Fast Fix: Rick vs Mitt (VIDEO)
Tonight’s Republican presidential debate in Tampa, Florida is likely to focus on the burgeoning fight between the two frontrunners: Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
It’s the second time in five days the two men will share a debate stage and if past is prologue expect them to duel over Perry’s assertion that Social Security amounts to a “Ponzi scheme”.
In today’s episode of the “Fast Fix” we offer our video preview of how that scrap might shake out. Don’t forget to tune into The Fix tonight for our live-blog of the debate.
Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney and the Fix Endorsement Hierarchy
When the news broke this morning that former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty was endorsing former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney , one question was at the top of everyone’s mind: Where does this fit into the Fix’s Endorsement Hierarchy? (Ok, so maybe that wasn’t the first things most people thought of. But, it was the first thing that occurred to us.)
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty discusses his endorsement of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney during a news conference Monday in North Charleston, S.C..
(Bruce Smith - AP)
For the uninitiated, the Fix Endorsement Hierarchy is an attempt to categorize and rank the various endorsements in the political world — from the helpful to the horrible. (And, yes, our endorsement hierarchy is the political equivalent of Bill Simmons’ (aka the Sports Guy) 13 levels of losing.)
So where does the Pawlenty for Romney endorsement fit?
Florida takes center stage in 2012 campaign
For the next 12 days, Florida will stand at the center of the 2012 Republican race, playing host to two debates — one tonight and a second on Sept. 22 — as well as a straw poll that will help shape the presidential nomination fight.
The next week and a half will also serve as the precursor to the Sunshine State primary early next year — a contest that many people believe could decide the identity of the party’s nominee.
“Early caucuses and primaries give the candidates a chance to shine with a certain segment of the electorate, but in Florida candidates will face the largest and most diverse GOP primary electorate of any early state,” said Sally Bradshaw, a longtime political adviser to former governor Jeb Bush.
Latest Tweets
"Boss": worth the time investment or take a pass?
NRCC Reserves Nearly $10 Million in Ad Time in 12 Districts http://t.co/GUBFl3Sy
RT @rachelweinerwp: Paul Ryan releases his tax returns http://t.co/KUi98r4u
Post Most: Politics
House