The Fix: Friday Line
Senate surprises stoke majority ambitions on both sides
Senate Democrats’ and Republicans’ campaign arms would be wise to heed the words of Oscar Wilde, the 19th century Irish dramatist: “To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.”
With nearly all of the major Senate primaries wrapped up, a series of unexpected events has swung momentum to and fro in the battle for the Senate, with the end result being a landscape offering a path to the majority for both parties.
Second time’s a charm? Past losers give it another go in top governor’s races
The top governor’s races this year, almost without exception, come with a strong dose of deja vu.
Of the six races that have graced our list of the most competitive contests this year — the now-completed Wisconsin recall being the one no longer listed in our top five below — all but one feature a candidate who fell short in a previous campaign for governor.
The Terminal Ten: The most vulnerable House seats in the country
Some House seats are going to change hands in this November’s election; there is no doubt about this fact.
A volatile electoral environment has conspired with the once-in-a-decade redistricting process to create upwards of a dozen seats that are now expected to change parties. These seats were either so close in 2010 that they are expected to flip back in a more neutral environment, or were changed so significantly in redistricting that they now favor the other side.
Below, we look at the 10 most vulnerable seats in the country, with No. 1 being the most vulnerable and No. 10 the least. Don’t be surprised if all of these switch parties this November.
Beyond these seats is when the real battle for control of the House begins. (While these split 50/50 between parties, the next crop of vulnerable seats includes more Republicans seats.)
To the line!
10. Rep. John Barrow (D-Ga.): With Barrow’s district getting about 15 points more Republican — perhaps the biggest shift in the country that made the district one that would have gone 59 percent for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 — one might wonder why this doesn’t rank higher on our list. In short, it’s because Barrow is a survivor. Like Reps. Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Dan Boren (D-Okla.) and Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.), Barrow has shown he can survive in conservative territory in spite of the ‘D’ next to his name. The reason Barrow is on this list and the others aren’t is that his district just got so much tougher.
Fundraising crunch time: 8 Senate candidates with something to prove
Second-quarter fundraising reports are due next weekend, and candidates are likely to start announcing their totals in the days to come.
With Senate races starting to take shape in several key states — particularly ones where the primary has been held — these reports are the most important to date, the second-to-last quarterly reports we’ll see before the election. Essentially: We’re getting into crunch time.
So who has the most to prove?
Below, we take a look at eight that have plenty at stake in their second-quarter reports (followed by what we think is a reasonable goal for each of them)...
The Gabby Giffords special election, and the limits of the sympathy vote
Voters will head to the polls Tuesday in southeastern Arizona to fill former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords’s (D-Ariz.) seat just more than 17 months after she survived an assassination attempt.
Gabrielle Giffords, right, hasn’t been much of an issue in the special election for her old seat. Her former district director, Ron Barber, left, is the Democratic nominee in that race. (Matt York/Reuters)But while the outpouring of sympathy from that event dominated the news, it’s not expected to play a major role in Tuesday’s results.
Giffords’s Republican-leaning district looks to be neck and neck down the stretch, with neither side ready to predict victory. And both Democrats and Republicans agree that the shooting – in which Democratic nominee and former Giffords aide Ron Barber was also injured – has little to do with the ballots voters are casting.
“There is a group of people extremely dedicated to Gabby who will do anything for her,” said one Arizona Democratic strategist, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. “But I haven’t seen much evidence that the persuadable universe of folks Barber needs to win are going to be swayed by the shooting.”
Another Democratic strategist put it more bluntly: “Sympathy doesn’t win elections.”
Mike Huckabee goes from pole position to VP dark horse (video)
At the start of the presidential campaign, it seemed Mike Huckabee would be a favorite for the GOP presidential ticket if Mitt Romney won the nomination.
But the former Arkansas governor seems to have slipped from the national consciousness in the last several months – so much so that he’s rarely mentioned as a potential running mate for Romney, or even mentioned, period.
Which is a little odd.
Then-Republican presidential candidate and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty listens as former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee speaks to Pawlenty supporters at the Iowa Straw Poll last August. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
The three questions that will decide the 2012 Senate race
The U.S. Senate is very much in play in the 2012 election.
In fact, it’s so much in play that Guy Cecil, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, recently remarked that there was a 50 percent chance Republicans will reclaim the chamber.
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) speaks during a roundtable discussion on the campus of the University of Central Missouri, in Warrensburg, Mo.
(Julie Denesha - FOR THE WASHINGTON POST)
To us, that seems about right. While Republicans’ chances were certainly better before Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) announced her retirement and Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) lost his primary, they’ve still got a great shot at winning the four seats (or three, if they win the presidency) to effectively control the Senate.
But with upwards of a dozen or more races looking potentially competitive right now, paying attention to every race is nearly impossible.
So The Fix, in true Fix fashion, has distilled the battle for the Senate down to three key questions, after the jump.
Wisconsin recall slipping away from Democrats
Just two and a half weeks remain in the recall of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R), and momentum seems to be firmly on the GOP’s side.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker speaks to the Illinois Chamber of Commerce in this April 17, 2012 file photo taken in Springfield, Ill. (Seth Perlman — Associated Press)
All three polls out this week show Walker leading Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) by between 5 percent and 9 percent. Perhaps more illustrative, though, are the candidate’s personal favorability and approval numbers.
The 10 House districts that might surprise you
For the past five election cycles, the battleground districts in the battle for the House have stayed very consistent — more or less.
One party wins control of the House by winning certain competitive seats, and the other party wins it back by regaining, in large part, those same seats.
Starting this year, though, the deck is shuffled. Redistricting and the wave of retirements that often goes with it puts some previously safe seats into play and moves some swing seats into the safe column.
But just which seats are newly relevant?
What swing states? Senate majority hinges on red states and blue states
We live in a hyper-nationalized political environment these days, in which a Senate candidate’s prospects in a presidential election year depend heavily on how their party’s presidential nominee performs.
And yet, in 2012, the battle for control of the Senate will be fought largely outside the swing states.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) speaks to the media after he was sworn in to be the newest member in the U.S. Senate in February 2010 (Alex Wong — Getty Images)Of the 10 Senate races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, only two take place in bona fide swing states — Nevada and Virginia — with the possible addition of Wisconsin (which hasn’t gone Republican in the last five presidential races but was close in 2004).
Almost all of the other toss-up races, meanwhile, will take place in either very blue states — Hawaii, Maine and Massachusetts — or pretty red states — Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota.
Meanwhile, the erstwhile big-time swing states — Florida, Ohio and to a lesser extent Michigan and Pennsylvania — are considered a part of the second tier of races. In other words, if the GOP wins these seats, they’ve definitely re-taken a majority in the Senate.
So what does this mean for the race going forward?
Ranking the Republican presidential candidates: The best and worst
The Republican primary is now over. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum’s decision to end his bid on Tuesday means that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney will be the Republican standard-bearer against President Obama in the fall.
The end of the race means a time for reflection in Fixworld. (We are nothing if not introspective.) And, regular readers know the Fix loves looking back at the campaign that was and deciding who did it best and, more deliciously, who did it worst. (Some people call this back seat driving; we call it “analysis”!)
Public unions target Democrat in Wisconsin recall
Democrats want the Wisconsin recall election to be all about getting rid of Scott Walker, the polarizing governor who instituted controversial collective bargaining laws.
But right now, a number of prominent labor unions are training their fire not on Walker but on Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, one of the Democrats who hopes to replace him.
The next Jean Schmidt? The top 10 House incumbents who could lose their primaries
Even in the most anti-incumbent primary season of the past few decades, less than 5 percent of members of Congress lost their primaries.
Such is the case under a political system that weighs things heavily in favor of incumbents.
Rep. Jean Schmidt is sworn in in January 2011. (Susan Walsh/AP)
But relatively speaking, this looks like one of the most anti-incumbent years in decades. There are several factors in the coming election that will lead to an increase in the number of members sent home early — and it’s quite possible we could see more incumbents lose than at any point in the last 40 years.
2012 Senate races: The year of the political comeback
The Democrats’ ability to hold their Senate majority may rest on three candidates who haven’t run for office in more than a decade.
The decisions by former Maine governor Angus King (I) and former Nebraska senator Bob Kerrey (D) to run for Senate this year bring a decidedly old-school flavor to the 2012 Senate map.
Former Maine governor Angus King speaks March 5 at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine. King announced plans to run as an independent for the seat being vacated by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), attempting a political comeback 14 years after he last ran for office. (AP Photo/Joel Page)
King hasn’t run for office since 1998, and for Kerrey, it’s been even longer: 1994. But they’re not the only ones who will have to get rid of the campaign rust.
Momentum favors Romney in up-for-grabs Michigan
There has been a lot of drama in the Republican presidential contest — especially for a campaign with no competitive primaries.
Iowa’s caucuses kept us all up into the wee hours of the morning, only to find out two weeks later that Mitt Romney’s supposed eight-vote win was actually a loss.
Days before a pivotal primary, Mitt Romney highlighted his economic plan in what was billed as a major campaign speech delivered at a cavernous and largely empty football stadium in Detroit. (AP)
But since then, every primary has been decided by double digits, while the only close races were less-important caucuses in Colorado and Maine.
Enter: Michigan
Tea Party faces a turning point in 2012 Senate races
The tea party referendum has officially begun.
Despite the success of tea party candidates all over the country in 2010, many top GOP Senate candidates have avoided the same kind of tough insider-outsider primary matchups that made the summer of 2010 so 
Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) faces a tough primary challenge.
(J. Scott Applewhite - AP Photo)
interesting. The latest is New Mexico Republican Heather Wilson, a moderate whose more-conservative opponent dropped out of the race this week.
But that doesn’t mean the tea party doesn’t have its chances this year.
The Club for Growth’s endorsement of Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock over Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) this week cements that race as the biggest tea party-versus-establishment Senate contest of the cycle. And it may set the tone for the rest of the year.
But there are six other tea party-versus-establishment races worth keeping an eye on. The Fix looks at each of them in chronological order.
What North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue’s exit means
It’s a new race in North Carolina following Gov. Bev Perdue’s (D) decision not to run for reelection.
But is it any more competitive?
For an entire year, now, North Carolina has topped The Fix’s governor’s line, meaning it is the 2012 governor’s seat seen as most likely to switch parties.
President Obama points to manufactured parts used in commercial aircraft during his tour of the WestStar Precision Facility in Apex, N.C., in September. From left are employee Jodi Park, North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue (D), and owner Ervin Portman. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais — Associated Press)
Much of that, though was premised on Perdue’s vulnerabilities, which means Democrats’ chances, theoretically at least, could be better with her out of the race.
Whether that’s the case is up for debate.
Do Nevada’s caucuses matter?
Presidential contests are inherently an expectations game, and because of that, the expectation is that Saturday’s contest in Nevada doesn’t mean much.
Rightly or wrongly, when a state isn’t competitive, we generally discount its broader impact on the presidential race.
And given the fact that Mitt Romney blew out his competition in the Silver State four years ago and is likely to do so again, his likely victory probably won’t land with the same kind of oomph it might have, had the outcome been in any serious amount of doubt.
So does Nevada matter?
It’s Mitt Romney’s race to lose ... again
A lot can happen in four days, but as of today, the Florida primary and the GOP presidential race are again Mitt Romney’s to lose.
After a brief diversion in the South Carolina primary, Romney is once again the clear favorite in Florida, having taken a 9-point lead in the latest Florida poll. And if he wins there, it’s hard to see where he might slip up again.
2012 redistricting: Top 10 matchups between incumbents
Incumbents will do just about anything to avoid facing off with other incumbents after the decennial redistricting process. Running against someone you know — and might even be friendly with — is an unsavory prospect for most politicians.
It’s not surprising then that in recent weeks we’ve seen several expected incumbent-versus-incumbent matchups fizzle thanks to retirements and other developments.
New Hampshire and the battle for second place
Mitt Romney is going to win the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday.
Talk to any semi-knowledgeable political operative in the state or look at any semi-decent poll on the race and that reality becomes clear within seconds.
Given that, the real race to watch in the Granite State is for second place — a battle that, according to conversations with a variety of operatives in the state, is likely to come down to two men: Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
Mitt Romney, Iowa frontrunner
It’s been a long, strange trip for Mitt Romney in Iowa, but with just days left before the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, the former Massachusetts governor is the odds-on bet to claim victory in the Hawkeye State.
That Romney sits atop the Iowa field — and two new polls (here and here) confirm that status — heading into the final weekend speaks to just how odd a race this has been so far.
Could 2012 be the most competitive Senate election in years?
Twenty Senate seats have changed hands since 2006, the most competitive back-to-back-to-back election cycles since the 1940s. And it might only get more competitive in 2012.
The nature of the map and the high number of quality candidates who have stepped forward in the first year of the 2012 election cycle could put upwards of half of the 33 Senate seats in play.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) waits for a hearing of the Senate Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services and International Security subcommittee hearing at historic Faneuil Hall in Boston in June. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)
Already, the Cook Political Report lists 10 Senate races as toss-ups — more than at this point in the 2010, 2008 or 2006 elections. Cook also rates 21 races as being at least somewhat competitive at this point, which is at least five more than any of the three preceding elections.
And if the Senate is indeed at stake — Republicans need to gain three seats for a tie and four for the majority — it appears as though it won’t be decided in just a couple states, but rather by competitive races all over the country.
2012 to be a trying year for DGA
Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O’Malley (Md.) was just re-eleected to his post after a pretty darn good 2011.
O’Malley’s committee held governorships in two tough states — West Virginia and Kentucky – 2012 figures to be a much tougher slate of races for the rising Democratic star (and potential 2016 presidential candidate).
The 10 states that will determine control of the House in 2012
With just less than a year to go until the 2012 election and most states having wrapped up their once-a-decade redistricting process, we’re starting to get a good sense about where the key House battles will take place.
A combination of an unpopular Congress, a volatile electorate, and changes resulting from redistricting mean there could be dozens of competitive races in just a handful of states.
Senate recruits Mack, Heitkamp and Carmona have a lot to prove
A pair of Senate recruits have given Democrats a new lease on life in Arizona and North Dakota, while the GOP is newly optimistic about victory in the Florida Senate contest thanks to its own new recruit.
But in all three cases, the jury is very much out on these new candidates for the 2012 Senate battle.
The Appalachian Bubble
Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear is a Democrat in a conservative state that is currently experiencing plenty of economic hardship. He’s been tied to an unpopular Democratic president and faced millions of dollars being spent against him.
Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D) greets supporter Ron Winkler at the kick-off of a bus tour at his campaign headquarters last month in Lexington. (AP Photo/ James Crisp)
And we would be shocked if he doesn’t win reelection by double digits on Tuesday.
It’s all part of an emerging trend that The Fix likes to call the Appalachian Bubble.
The contenders and the pretenders of the Republican race
And then there were eight.
As in eight candidates on this month’s Friday presidential Line — the first time this election cycle that we aren’t including ten Republicans in our rankings of who might wind up as the GOP nominee.
Why? Because with the no-go decisions by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin , there simply aren’t ten people left in the Republican field who can make even a semi-reasonable case that they could wind up as the party’s standard-bearer against President Obama next November.
2012 Redistricting: Top 10 races between House incumbents
Every 10 years, incumbents are forced to face off with one another thanks to the reshuffling of congressional districts known as redistricting.
And with a little more than half of states now done drawing their new maps, we’ve got a pretty good idea about where those incumbents will be dueling.
Below, we look at the top ten districts where it looks like incumbents will fight one another, review their just-filed third quarter fundraising numbers, and try to give you a sense of where their races are going.
GOP expands the Senate map, but Democrats ready to play offense
New York Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer said this week that he thinks every Democratic incumbent running in 2012 will win reelection and that his party could actually pick off a seat or two from the GOP.
The first part of that statement seems a bit too optimistic though the second part could actually happen.
Democrats face uphill climb in 2012 governors races
Democrats’ victory in the West Virginia governor’s race on Tuesday effectively brings to an end the 2011 gubernatorial season — or at least the competitive races.
But, never fear because the big governors races of 2012 are beginning to take shape. And it’s already clear that Democrats have their work cut out for them.
The most gerrymandered districts of 2011
Members of Congress all over the country are dealing with change – and not the good kind.
The decennial redistricting process, which amounts to a nationwide redrawing of all 435 House districts, means many Members of Congress are faced with wooing new constituents, losing their districts altogether or confronting tough choices about where and whether to seek reelection in 2012. And with more than half of the states already done with redistricting, those career-changing decisions are being made every day.
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