The Fix: Senate
Democrats keep up tax attacks against Romney
Democrats are not satisfied with Mitt Romney’s tax information, Elizabeth Warren releases a new ad, and Ed Case wants to know why he lost in Hawaii.
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Senate surprises stoke majority ambitions on both sides
Senate Democrats’ and Republicans’ campaign arms would be wise to heed the words of Oscar Wilde, the 19th century Irish dramatist: “To expect the unexpected shows a thoroughly modern intellect.”
With nearly all of the major Senate primaries wrapped up, a series of unexpected events has swung momentum to and fro in the battle for the Senate, with the end result being a landscape offering a path to the majority for both parties.
New poll shows Obama holds slim lead over Romney in Wisconsin
A new poll shows a close presidential race in Wisconsin, Harry Reid isn’t satisfied by Mitt Romney’s tax talk, and Paul Ryan is headed to Florida this weekend.
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Self-funded candidates struggle in Senate races
Being a government outsider with the ability to rely on personal money to finance a campaign isn’t proving to be a silver bullet this election cycle.
Across the country, self-funding political newcomers from the private sector have struggled in Senate races. Two have lost in less than two weeks in Missouri and Wisconsin, while a third appears likely to lose in Arizona later this month.
Can Connie Mack defeat Bill Nelson in Florida?
Rep. Connie Mack IV cruised to victory on Tuesday in Florida’s Republican Senate primary, winning nearly 60 percent of the vote against nominal competition he barely acknowledged during the campaign.
But toppling Sen. Bill Nelson, a likable second-term Democrat with a nearly $9 million campaign account is a considerably more demanding task. Mack begins the race as an underdog, but not one without a path to victory. To pull an upset, he’ll need to tighten up a shaky campaign.
Thompson wins Republican Senate nomination in Wisconsin
Former governor Tommy Thompson won the Republican Senate primary in Wisconsin on Tuesday, edging out self-funding businessman Eric Hovde. Thompson will face Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin in the general election.
The AP called the race for Thompson, who led Hovde 35 percent to 30 percent, with 81 percent of precincts reporting.
Connecticut and the pitiful death knell of the GOP moderate
Updated at 9:39 a.m.
Moderate GOP Senate candidates have been taking a beating the last two election cycles.
And nowhere is that more the case than in Connecticut.
The 2010 and 2012 elections both featured open Senate seats in the Nutmeg State. In both elections, respected and moderate former GOP congressmen — the kind of candidates Republicans arguably need in a blue-leaning state — stepped forward.
Obama makes Seamus the dog joke about Romney
Americans For Prosperity launches a new ad against President Obama, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) attacks the president on energy and the Senate ad war in Missouri is in full swing.
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Primary day: Five things you need to know in Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin
Voters head to the polls in four states today, with Connecticut, Florida, Minnesota and Wisconsin holding congressional primaries.
Connecticut House Speaker and Democratic congressional candidate Chris Donovan is favored to win his primary today despite the arrests of two top aides. (AP Photo/Jessica Hill, File)As usual, The Fix has zeroed in on five things to watch as the results roll in tonight:
1. The most expensive congressional primary in the country
That would be Connecticut’s 5th district, where seven candidates have raised at least $600,000 and five have raised more than $1 million. A total of nearly $10 million has already been raised just to decide each party’s nominee.
The most interesting subplot is on the Democratic side, where state House Speaker Chris Donovan remains the favorite despite the fact that his campaign manager and top fundraiser have both been arrested and charged with corruption. Organized labor and progressive groups remain firmly behind Donovan, who has not been implicated in the wrongdoing and has won the state party’s endorsement as well.
GOP Senate candidates mixed on inviting Ryan to campaign for them
Republican Senate candidates in some marquee races say they would be happy to campaign with the GOP’s new vice presidential candidate, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)
But others are apparently resistant to the idea.
Democrats have attempted to attach Ryan and his plan to Republicans all over the country, labeling Ryan their “running mate” and hoping his controversial Medicare plan hurts downballot GOPers.
Why the Wisconsin Senate primary matters
In a state that has hosted two rounds of historic recall elections in the last year, Tuesday’s primary might seem like an afterthought.
But a Senate primary season that has already featured Republican upsets in Nebraska, Indiana, Missouri and Texas might make room for one more in the Badger State. And it just might be the most consequential one of all.
Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson greets supporters after formally launching his bid for U.S. Senate.
(Dinesh Ramde - Associated Press)
Paul Ryan’s budget: Democrats’ ace in the hole?
Conservatives will be thrilled with the selection of their favored pick, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), as Mitt Romney’s running mate, but Democratic campaign operatives may be just as excited.
Democrats have gotten significant mileage out of attacking the budget Ryan has proposed as chairman of the House Budget Committee, particularly the portion of it that would turn Medicare into a voucher program.
Hawaii Senate primary: Which poll to believe?
The matchup for Hawaii’s open Senate seat will officially be set Saturday, when the state holds its Democratic Senate primary.
And depending on which poll you believe, it’s either going to be a barn-burner or a blowout.
Former congressman Ed Case is challenging Rep. Mazie Hirono for the right to face Republican former governor Linda Lingle in the general election, and he’s long been the underdog. Hirono had the unofficial backing of the national Democratic Party, raised tons more money than Case did, leans further left than Case does, and according to some polls, she carries a double-digit lead into Saturday’s election.
Rep. Todd Akin wins primary to face McCaskill in Missouri
Rep. Todd Akin won the Republican nomination to face Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) on Tuesday, emerging from a tight three-way race to face the most vulnerable senator in the country.
Results Tuesday night showed Akin leading the pack at 36 percent with 74 percent of precincts in. Businessman John Brunner followed at 30 percent, and former state treasurer Sarah Steelman was at 29 percent. The AP has called the race for Akin.
Akin will now face McCaskill, who Republicans see as ripe for defeat in an increasingly conservative state, and whose seat they are counting on to help them win the majority.
Primary day: Five things watch for in Missouri, Michigan and Washington
Voters head to the polls in four states today, with Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington state all holding their primaries.
On the ballot: Missouri Republicans could nominate a less-than-desirable Senate candidate, we’ll get a preview of the open Washington governor’s race thanks to that state’s blanket primary and in Detroit we could see a white congressman win a majority-black district today for just the second time.
Here are five things to watch for:
1. The Akin effect
Will Democrats get their man in Missouri’s Republican primary?
Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) announces his candidacy for the Senate in Creve Coeur, Mo.(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Tennessee Democrats disavow Senate candidate
Democrats disavow Senate candidate, Romney says he paid lots of taxes, RNC sends a “you didn’t build this” cake and Rick Perry says VPs don’t really matter.
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Harry Reid doubles down on Romney taxes; Romney campaign responds
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has doubled (actually tripled) down on his claim that Mitt Romney did not pay taxes for 10 years.
In both a Senate floor speech and in conversation with Nevada reporters, Reid said he had it on good authority that the former Massachusetts governor and presidential candidate had paid no taxes, a claim he attributed in a Huffington Post interview to a Bain investor.
Rick Perry loses. Again.
One year ago, Texas Gov. Rick Perry was a world-beater in the world of Republican politics, having come off a big primary win over an incumbent senator in 2010 and inching toward what seemed to be a perfectly laid-out path to victory in the GOP presidential race.
Today, Perry’s political capital in his own state is being called into question.
In this June 7, 2012, file photo, Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks during the Texas Republican Convention in Fort Worth, Texas. (AP Photo/LM Otero, File)
Who is Ted Cruz?
Ted Cruz has never run for office before. The 41-year-old beat Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst in a Senate runoff last night not only thanks to some powerful friends but on the strength of his impressive biography.
Cruz was born Rafael Cruz in Canada, where his Cuban father and Irish-American mother had moved for the 1960s oil boom. They had met at an oil exploration business in Texas.
As a teenager, his father fought for Fidel Castro against Fulgencio Batista. “They didn’t know Castro was a Communist, what they knew was that Batista was a cruel and oppressive dictator,” Cruz said earlier this year.
Ted Cruz and the GOP’s changing face
Ted Cruz’s come-from-behind victory in the Texas GOP Senate runoff on Tuesday — and the near-certainty that he will cruise to a general election win in November — ensures he will immediately join a rapidly growing group of rising national Republican stars that have one big thing in common: None of them are white.
Scott Brown on Elizabeth Warren’s criticisms: ‘Blah, blah, blah, blah’
Scott Brown says blah, Sarah Palin says Steelman is a mama grizzly, Mitt Romney says you should talk privately about settlements and Dick Cheney says he’s fishing.
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The worst ad of the 2012 campaign (so far)?
Rep. Todd Akin’s Missouri Senate campaign is up with one of the head-scratchingest ads of the 2012 — or any other — election.
Akin, who is running in Show Me State’s GOP Senate primary next week, tries to play up his Christian conservatism in the new ad. But whatever message he was going for gets completely lost in conservative buzzwords and run-on sentences.
Have a look for yourself:
What a Ted Cruz victory would mean
Eighteen months ago, Ted Cruz was a starry-eyed Texas Republican with long-shot hopes of becoming a United States senator. On Tuesday, the former state solicitor general looks headed to an unlikely runoff victory over Lt. Governor David Dewhurst, win that would defy the power of the state’s GOP establishment.
After speaking in support of Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin signed autographs and spoke to some of the 1,000 Ted Cruz supporters during a rally for Cruz, Friday, July 27, 2012 in The Woodlands, Texas. (AP Photo/Houston Chronicle, Johnny Hanson) A Cruz win would not only be a major rebuke of the well-known (and VERY well financed) Dewhurst, but it would also arguably be the most significant statewide upset of the 2012 cycle to date. (Yes, we’re talking about the same cycle in which a sitting senator was dislodged in Indiana and a little-known state legislator won the GOP Senate nomination in Nebraska.)
There are three key reasons for this.
Sarah Palin endorses Rep. Jeff Flake for Senate in Arizona
Sarah Palin makes a new pick, a Romney ad star got help from the government, Obama will visit Israel and a potential Tierney rival folds.
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Orrin Hatch and why elections have consequences
Is the old Orrin Hatch back?
In this Thursday, June 28, 2012 photo, Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, talks with The Associated Press at his office on Capitol Hill in Washington. With his re-election to a seventh term all but assured, Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch can think about his legacy. He’s very clear about what he wants: a deal that restructures the tax code while also slowing and even stopping the government’s accumulation of debt. To get it, he says he’ll practice the art of compromise. (AP Photo/Cliff Owen)The Utah Republican Senator, who survived a tea party challenge last month by focusing on his conservatism and voting in lockstep with his party’s ideological right wing over the last two years, appears to be shifting back into deal-maker mode, according to an AP report Monday. But Hatch’s spokeswoman is disputing the story.
Regardless, though, the situation proves that old political adage: Elections have consequences.
North Carolina runoff highlights GOP efforts to beat back outsider candidates
Tonight’s runoff in North Carolina’s 8th district features arguably the most contentious insider-versus-outsider House fight of the campaign to date. And the race says a lot about how the Republican party establishment has evolved in its effort to beat back tea party challenges.
Two years ago, dentist Scott Keadle would have been a favorite to beat former congressional aide Richard Hudson in tonight’s runoff for the right to face Rep. Larry Kissell (D-N.C.). Keadle, after all, has the Club for Growth behind him, and Hudson is easily tied to an unpopular Washington.
Today, the tea party enthusiasm that swept people like Keadle into office (and past establishment favorites like Hudson in the primaries) has dissipated considerably.
Everyone hates Congress. It wasn’t always this way.
In the latest numbers from Gallup, just sixteen percent of Americans approved of how Congress is doing its job. The reaction of the political world? Ho-hum. After all, everyone knows that the public hates Congress — and always has.
Except that they haven’t.
In fact, as recently as 2005, Congressional approval regularly hovered around 40 percent — not exactly high enough to win any popularity contests but nowhere near the used car salesman/reporter level where it currently resides.
GOP Senate primaries see businessmen making real strides
Senate Republicans’ slate of candidates this November could have a significant business flavor.
Self-funded businessmen are surging in three key GOP primaries right now in Arizona, Missouri and Wisconsin, and all three appear to have a good shot next month of beating better-known Republicans who have held high-level elected offices.
St. Louis area manufacturing executive John Brunner meets with supporters after announcing his candidacy for U.S. Senate, Oct. 3, 2011, in St. Charles, Mo. Brunner is one of a few Republican businessmen who could win their party’s Senate nomination this fall. (Jeff Roberson — Associated Press)
The latest GOP player: American Commitment
If you live in a swing state with a competitive Senate race, there’s a new name you might have seen on your TV screen: American Commitment.
The conservative 501(c)(4) nonprofit group is on the air in five states attacking Democratic candidates.
Shelley Berkley and the ‘under investigation’ label
The House ethics committee announced late Monday afternoon that it would launch a formal investigation into Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.). At issue is whether her legislative actions were meant to help her husband’s business.
And it comes at about the worst possible time for her — less than four months before she is on the ballot for an open Senate seat.
But while it’s clear that the news certainly is not good for Berkley, just how bad is it, really? And how much does it jeopardize her and Democrats’ chances of unseating appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.)?
Rep. Shelley Berkley (D-Nev.) hosts a "Congress on Your Corner" event in January 2011. (Marlene Karas for The Washington Post)
What controversy? Warren raised $8.6 million in second quarter
Elizabeth Warren raised the fundraising bar even more in the second quarter, pulling in $8.6 million for her Massachusetts Senate campaign despite a controversy over her past claims to Native-American heritage.
The quarter is the best to date for the Democratic fundraising star, who has consistently outraised Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) since launching her campaign and is one of her party’s top hopes for stealing a GOP seat.
Mitch McConnell and the battle for Senate control
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told CNN’s Candy Crowley on Sunday that Republican chances of taking over the Senate in November stood at “50-50,” adding: “I think it’s going to be a very close, competitive election.”
McConnell is among the most savvy strategists in either party and, unlike most politicians, tends toward directness and honesty when he speaks publicly. (Who could forget — Democrats won’t let you — McConnell’s famous pledge that the “single most important thing” for Republicans was to make Obama a one-term president.)
Fundraising crunch time: 8 Senate candidates with something to prove
Second-quarter fundraising reports are due next weekend, and candidates are likely to start announcing their totals in the days to come.
With Senate races starting to take shape in several key states — particularly ones where the primary has been held — these reports are the most important to date, the second-to-last quarterly reports we’ll see before the election. Essentially: We’re getting into crunch time.
So who has the most to prove?
Below, we take a look at eight that have plenty at stake in their second-quarter reports (followed by what we think is a reasonable goal for each of them)...
Jim DeMint launching super PAC
Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) is turning his Senate Conservatives Fund from a leadership political action committee into an independent PAC, which makes it possible to form a super PAC and raise unlimited funds.
The move will help funnel money to Republican Senate candidates, but it could also cause some heartburn for the GOP. In a number of races, DeMint is backing primary candidates that the party would rather see lose.
Leadership PACs cannot operate as super PACs. Once the SCF is no longer formally connected to DeMint, the group will have that freedom.
“If we’re going to save this country, we have to elect more conservatives to the U.S. Senate,” DeMint said in a statement. “Making the Senate Conservatives Fund independent of me will allow it do even more to elect the kind of leaders we need to repeal Obamacare and balance the budget.”
The new group is called Senate Conservatives Action.
Democratic candidates still tread lightly on Obamacare, despite Supreme Court’s decision
The Supreme Court gave President Obama’s health-care law its constitutional seal of approval Thursday.
When it comes to their political seal of approval, Democratic House and Senate candidates weren’t so kind.
Despite the law being upheld, Democrats with tough races ahead of them continue to tread lightly around a law that remains broadly unpopular nationwide — including among key independent voters.
Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch turns back primary challenge from Dan Liljenquist
Six-term Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) survived a primary challenge Tuesday night, easily beating former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist .
With 6 percent of the vote in, Hatch led Liljenquist 69 percent to 31 percent.
The senator’s victory was not in much doubt. In fact, the primary almost didn’t happen. If a candidate wins the support of 60 percent of the 4,000 state GOP convention delegates, there is no primary. Hatch took 59.2 percent at the April convention. That meant a head-to-head with Liljenquist among the broader GOP electorate — a race for which Hatch was better funded and better prepared.
New York primary results: Rangel survives
Updated at 11:53 p.m.
Rep. Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.) has won the Democratic nomination in his Harlem-based district, paving the way for a 22nd term in Congress as he turned aside a crowded primary field Tuesday.
With 84 percent of precincts reporting, Rangel led state Sen. Adriano Espaillat 45 percent to 40 percent. The AP has called the race for Rangel.
In his victory, Rangel overcomes both health problems that had some speculating he was on his deathbed and a district that took in plenty of Latino territory in redistricting. It’s the second-straight election in which he has withstood a competitive primary.
Also in New York City, New York state Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries easily turned aside primary opponent and controversial New York City Councilman Charles Barron on Tuesday and is a shoo-in to replace retiring Rep. Ed Towns (D-N.Y.) in November.
Scott Brown attending GOP convention; McCaskill skipping Democrats’
Scott Brown is going to the GOP convention, Claire McCaskill is skipping the Democratic convention, and Mitt Romney says Obama’s first term will be a waste if Obamacare is overtuned.
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Primary day: Five things to watch for
Voters in Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah head to the polls today for primaries and primary runoffs.
Though no major Senate contests are on the ballot in these states, there are still plenty of interesting subplots. Here are five that are worth watching.
1. More incumbents going down?
Tuesday’s primaries could see yet more incumbents falling in newly drawn districts. The most likely victims would appear to be Reps. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), Nydia Velazquez (D-N.Y.), Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) and John Sullivan (R-Okla.).
Rangel is, of course, the big one. After 42 years in Congress, the former Ways and Means Committee chairman is in perhaps his toughest race yet against a field that includes state Sen. Adriano Espaillat, who would be Congress’s first Dominican-American member. (For more, see Paul Kane’s great piece today.)
Representative Charles B. Rangel in Washington, D.C., on June 20. (Marvin Joseph, The Washington Post)
The Supreme Court, immigration, and Democrats’ chances in Arizona
Monday’s ruling on Arizona’s controversial immigration law represented a split decision that confused
many and was both hailed and lamented by Republicans and Democrats.
Rep. Jeff Flake talks about Mitt Romney's performance following the Arizona Republican Presidential Debate the Mesa Arts Center on Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2012. (Charlie Leight/The Arizona Republic)
As the two parties wrestle over what it means for national politics, it’s also worth examining the influence (if any) the decision will have on Arizona politics.
Democrats have talked a big game about winning Arizona at the presidential and Senate level, where Sen. Jon Kyl’s (R-Ariz.) retirement has left an open seat this year. Most of that talk holds that the controversy over the Arizona law — also known as “SB1070” — and Obama’s movement on immigration will lead to increased Latino turnout in a 30 percent Hispanic state.
But an equally valid line of argument maintains that the Arizona law, which Republicans have spear-headed, is broadly popular. And as long as the immigration issue is front-and-center, that’s good for the GOP.
George LeMieux drops out of Florida Senate race
Updated at 11:12 a.m.
Former senator George LeMieux (R-Fla.) announced Wednesday that he will end his Senate campaign, citing a lack of resources, and endorsed Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.).
“As a former party chairman, I know that sometimes for the good of the party, and the good of the nation, a candidate has to bow out gracefully,” LeMieux said in a Web message thanking supporters. “In order to have the best chance to defeat (Sen.) Bill Nelson and put the Senate in Republican hands, today we will end our campaign.”
Scott Brown rejects Kennedy Institute debate
Scott Brown won’t debate at Kennedy Institute, Marco Rubio won’t be Mitt Romney’s VP, a Republican campaign staffer resigns in Arizona and House members don’t practice what they preached.
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National Democrats send $250k for Indiana Senate ad
The national Democratic Party is dipping its toe into the open Indiana Senate race, sending $250,000 to the state party for an ad on behalf of Rep. Joe Donnelly’s (D-Ind.) campaign.
North Dakota’s Senate race is no sure thing for GOP
Republicans won an open Senate seat in North Dakota in 2010 in a cakewalk. Given that result and the state’s conservative lean in a presidential year, when Sen. Kent Conrad (D) shocked the political world by announcing his plans to retire rather than seek reelection in 2012, it was considered something short of a given that the GOP would win the open seat contest in November.
But a series of polls in North Dakota in recent weeks — most of them from Democratic pollsters — show the race is neck-and-neck between former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rep. Rick Berg (R).
And with the general election officially launching after Tuesday’s primary, the state is looking like a real chore for the GOP rather than a seat it can already count on in its quest to retake a Senate majority. At least for now.
FILE - In this March 31, 2012 file photo, Senate candidate Rep. Rick Berg (R-N.D.) shakes hands with supporters in Bismarck, N.D. (AP Photo/Will Kincaid, File)
Cynthia Dill and Charlie Summers to face Angus King in Maine Senate race
Updated at 11:49 p.m.
The two major parties chose their candidates for Maine’s open Senate seat, but in this unusual race, both will face an uphill battle against popular former governor Angus King, an independent.
State Sen. Cynthia Dill beat former Maine secretary of state Matthew Dunlap and two other candidates in the Democratic primary. She ran as a progressive Democrat fighting Gov. Paul LePage (R).
On the GOP side, current Secretary of State Charles Summers beat out state Treasurer Bruce Poliquin and four others. Poliquin ran to the right of Summers and lost despite outraising his rival and getting help from the outside group FreedomWorks.
Special election and primary day: 5 things to watch
It’s primary day — again!
Voters in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina and Virginia are heading to the primary polls as we speak, while Arizona voters will pick a replacement for former congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords (D) and Arkansas voters will vote in a runoff.
With so many races on the ballot, here are five things to keep an eye on...
1. Arizona special election: What’s the margin?
Republicans are quietly expressing pessimism about the Giffords race, where GOP nominee Jesse Kelly has had some troubles trying to win a Republican-leaning district. But even if he loses, the margin matters.
Assessing Elizabeth Warren’s wounds
Has Elizabeth Warren paid a price in the polls for the ongoing flap over her Native American heritage?
Supporters of Elizabeth Warren cheer after Warren won the delegate vote to become the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate at the Democratic State Convention in Springfield, Mass., on Saturday. (Michael Dwyer — Associated Press)Survey says: Yes. And no.
Two new polls out this weekend show the former Obama administration official and Harvard professor hanging tough in her race against Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.). The race remained a virtual tie in a new Boston Globe poll by the University of New Hampshire and another from Western New England University.
The Globe poll, in fact, showed the exact same two-point lead for Brown as it did two months ago, before the controversy over Warren’s minority claims began.
But a dig a little deeper in the poll shows at least some key voters are turned off to Warren. And in a tight race, that could matter.
The three questions that will decide the 2012 Senate race
The U.S. Senate is very much in play in the 2012 election.
In fact, it’s so much in play that Guy Cecil, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, recently remarked that there was a 50 percent chance Republicans will reclaim the chamber.
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) speaks during a roundtable discussion on the campus of the University of Central Missouri, in Warrensburg, Mo.
(Julie Denesha - FOR THE WASHINGTON POST)
To us, that seems about right. While Republicans’ chances were certainly better before Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) announced her retirement and Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) lost his primary, they’ve still got a great shot at winning the four seats (or three, if they win the presidency) to effectively control the Senate.
But with upwards of a dozen or more races looking potentially competitive right now, paying attention to every race is nearly impossible.
So The Fix, in true Fix fashion, has distilled the battle for the Senate down to three key questions, after the jump.
Elizabeth Warren admits she told schools she was Native American
Late Wednesday night, Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren answered a question that has been dogging her for weeks, admitting that she told Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania that she was Native American.
Warren said she shared the information after she was hired and that it played no role in her recruitment. Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) has been pressuring Warren on her records.
Pete Hoekstra and the slippery slope of birtherism
Michigan GOP Senate candidate Pete Hoekstra is proposing a new panel to verify the citizenship of federal political candidates, but he’s facing some tough sledding.
The former congressman, whose proposal for what’s already been dubbed a “birther panel” came to light Wednesday, went on CNN this afternoon to talk about the idea.
It didn’t go well.
Hoekstra, despite saying he believes in the legitimacy of Obama’s Hawaiian birth certificate, found himself in a combative interview in much the same way Donald Trump did the day before.
Incumbent primary losses begin to mount, may approach record
We may see a record number of congressional incumbents lose their primaries this year. If we do, it’s likely to have more to do with redistricting than a wave of so-called “anti-incumbent” sentiment.
The highest number of incumbents who have lost their primaries over the past 50 years is the 20 who fell in a post-redistricting cycle in 1992. That included 19 House members and one senator.
Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D-Tex.) was chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence until 2011. He lost his primary Tuesday. (Kevin Clark/The Washington Post)
With Rep. Silvestre Reyes’s (D-Tex.) loss Tuesday, we are now guaranteed to see 15 incumbents lose primaries in this post-redistricting cycle. Four have lost to non-incumbent challengers, and 11 more face or have faced primary matchups with other incumbents, assuring that one incumbent will fall.
Is Ted Cruz the next Marco Rubio?
He’s a Cuban-American, tea-party backed upstart taking on a establishment-backed Republican Senate candidate.
Is Ted Cruz the next Marco Rubio?
“This is a showdown between a conservative fighter and an establishment moderate, so there are certainly similarities,” said Cruz campaign manager John Drogin.
Dewhurst and Cruz headed for runoff in Texas Senate race
Updated at 7:58 a.m.
The Texas Republican Senate primary is headed for a runoff, after Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst fell shy of 50 percent of the vote Tuesday.
Dewhurst will face former state solicitor general Ted Cruz, a favorite of the tea party, in the July 31 runoff. The winner of that runoff will be a heavy favorite to succeed retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), after Democrats failed to land a top-tier recruit.
With 57 percent of precincts reporting, Dewhurst led Cruz 46 percent to 33 percent. Seven other candidates split the vote enough, though, to push the two into a runoff, according to AP.
Texas primary: Does Ted Cruz have a shot?
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst is very likely to be the clear first-place finisher in tonight’s GOP Senate primary in Texas.
But if Dewhurst fails to get 50 percent of the vote and the race goes to a runoff, it’s a (mostly) new ballgame.
U.S. Senate candidate Ted Cruz greets supporters at The Tea Party Express rally at the Capitol in Austin, Texas, on May 6. (AP Photo/Austin American-Statesman, Jay Janner)
In Texas, the race to replace retiring Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) is all about the GOP primary, after Democrats’ prized recruit — former general Ricardo Sanchez — crashed and burned early in the race.
The GOP contest so far has been a bit of a jumbled mess, and Dewhurst’s top tea party competition, former state solicitor general Ted Cruz, has been badly outspent in a crowded field that includes former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert.
Still, Cruz appears to be the top threat to gain a two-man runoff with Dewhurst, and even if he finishes far behind Dewhurst today, it’s hard to count him out in the July 31 runoff.
Elizabeth Warren controversy: Drip, drip, drip
The Elizabeth Warren controversy is becoming the controversy that won’t die.
Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate Elizabeth Warren faces reporters during a May 2 news conference, where she addressed questions on her claim of Native American heritage. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)The Boston Globe this morning reported that Harvard University listed the Democratic Massachusetts Senate candidate as a Native American for six years in its federal diversity statistics — the latest example of Warren having been labeled a minority by the school.
The difference with this case, though, is that the Globe reports that such designations are almost always based on how an employee identified him or herself. Warren has said that she didn’t know how the school came to identify her as such. Though she had previously described herself as a Native American in law school directories, she stopped doing so around the time Harvard hired her in the mid-1990s.
The art of the political stonewall
Politicians generally don’t like to answer questions directly. And that goes double when they are talking about something uncomfortable.
The result, more and more, is an on-camera stonewall that would make General Jackson proud.
Case in point: Elizabeth Warren, the Democratic Massachusetts Senate candidate who has faced weeks of questions about whether she claimed to be a Native American to get preferential treatment, has met the repeated questions with a good, old-fashioned, political stonewall.
“I told you: I have answered these questions; I am going to talk about what is happening to America’s families,” Warren says in a video posted this week, repeatedly returning to the theme of the economy as a reporter peppers her with questions on what she claimed and when.
Sarah Palin gets blowback for Orrin Hatch endorsement
Sarah Palin gets blowback, Wisconsin Democrats get $1 million, Mitt Romney gets heckled and Newt Gingrich gets a comeback.
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Can Democrats run from Obama? Should they?
Two Democrats in the past two days have shunned President Obama.
Asked during a debate Wednesday night whether he would vote for President Obama, Arizona House candidate Ron Barber (D) demurred.
“My vote is my vote,” he told Republican Jesse Kelly, who he faces in a special election for the seat vacated by Gabrielle Giffords. “And I will not be talking about other elections. I’m focused on beating you on June 12.”
Massachusetts Senate race poll: Elizabeth Warren, Scott Brown in dead heat
Native American cookbooks and college directories have not had much impact on the Senate race in Massachusetts.
A new poll from Suffolk University/7NEWS finds Sen. Scott Brown (R) and Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren (D) in a dead heat, 48 percent to 47 percent. Suffolk last polled the race in February and found Brown had a nine-point lead.
Only five percent of voters are undecided.
Deb Fischer’s knight in super PAC armor: Joe Ricketts
The Club for Growth, Sen. Jim DeMint’s (R-S.C.) Senate Conservatives Fund, the Tea Party Express and FreedomWorks all backed losing candidates in Tuesday’s Senate primary in Nebraska.
But one outside group emerged victorious, and you should expect to hear more from it.
The Ending Spending Action Fund super PAC, funded by Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, whose family also owns the Chicago Cubs, made a mark in Nebraska with a targeted and very late $250,000 ad buy on behalf of Deb Fischer. The buy came just when momentum had shifted to Fischer and was double the amount the state senator spent on ads for herself. And in a close race, it might have made the difference for her.
But Ricketts’s ties to Omaha (where Ameritrade is based) don’t mean he’s done now that the Nebraska primary is over.
How Deb Fischer pulled an upset in Nebraska
Attorney General Jon Bruning was supposed to win the Nebraska Republican Senate primary — unless he was upset by state Treasurer Don Stenberg, who had the support of national conservatives.
Neither man won. Instead, Nebraska’s GOP nominee this fall will be state Rep. Deb Fischer, who surged in the past few weeks with little money or help. She’ll be the one to take on former senator Bob Kerrey (D).
So who is Fischer?
Deb Fischer, and what (political) money can’t buy
Only about one-tenth of the money spent in Tuesday’s Nebraska GOP Senate primary was spent on Deb Fischer’s behalf.
Yet the little-known state senator emerged victorious over both the establishment-favored candidate and a favorite of the tea party — both of whom, we should note, are statewide elected officials.
Who says candidates don’t matter and money is everything?
Don Stenberg, left, and Deb Fischer during a Nebraska Republican Senate candidate debate. (Jeff Beiermann, AP)
Fischer’s win in the primary Tuesday is a testament to the fact that politics is still about campaigns and that money isn’t the be-all, end-all.
While Fischer’s win wasn’t necessarily a tea party win, it was reminiscent of the insurgent GOP candidacies of 2010, in which a candidate’s character and politics often meant more than money and infrastructure.
Both establishment and tea party could lose in Nebraska
If state Sen. Deb Fischer pulls an upset in the Nebraska GOP Senate primary today, we will all be treated to a familiar storyline: The Republican Party establishment has been rebuked yet again, it will say, and could pay a price for it in the general election.
Don’t believe it.
Deb Fischer makes a point during a Nebraska Republican Senate candidate's debate on May 1. (Jeff Beiermann, AP)
Fischer’s win would certainly be an upset — she’s run a meagerly funded campaign and barely registered in the polls for most of the race — but it doesn’t exactly fit the tea party bill.
And the idea that Republicans are enduring a redux of the tea party-dominated 2010 primary season is unfounded at this point.
Mourdock and Donnelly tied at 40 in Indiana, Democratic poll shows
A new poll conducted for Rep. Joe Donnelly’s (D-Ind.) Senate campaign shows him tied with newly minted GOP nominee Richard Mourdock.
The poll (full questionnaire here), conducted by Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group and obtained by The Fix, showed both Donnelly and Mourdock at 40 percent.
Democrats have insisted since Mourdock’s victory over longtime Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) in the primary last week that they now have a chance to win Indiana, which went for President Obama in 2008 but leans significantly toward Republicans.
The poll suggests they may have a point.
How gay marriage plays in Senate races
President Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage has already excited donors and the Democratic base. But will it hurt Democrats down-ballot?
It’s possible.
Combined data from Washington Post-ABC News polls do show that while the country as a whole tilts in favor of gay marriage, voters in some key swing states oppose it.
University of Pennsylvania also listed Elizabeth Warren as a minority
Harvard University isn’t the only one of Elizabeth Warren’s employers to have described her as a minority; so did the University of Pennsylvania.
According to Penn’s 2005 “Minority Equity Report,” it too identified Warren, who taught there from 1987 to 1995, as a minority.
On page 16 of the report, the now-Massachusetts Senate candidate is listed as a winner of the school’s Lindback Award in 1994. Unlike other names listed, though, her name is italicized and bolded to indicate her status as a minority faculty member.
A ‘mama grizzly’ upset is possible in Nebraska
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) has been the favorite from the start to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), but his hold on that mantle has always been tenuous.
First, state Treasurer Don Stenberg nabbed the backing of the influential Club for Growth and Sen. Jim DeMint’s (R-S.C.) Senate Conservatives Fund. Then, former senator Bob Kerrey got in the race and gave Democrats a fighting chance.
FILE - In this Feb. 11, 2012 file photo, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the GOP candidate for vice-president in 2008, speaks in Washington. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
But with just five days until the GOP primary, neither Stenberg nor Kerrey is looking like Bruning’s biggest obstacle. Instead, the until-now-dark-horse candidate in the race, state Sen. Deb Fischer, has asserted herself and — according to politicos in Nebraska — has a fighting chance to usurp Bruning on Tuesday.
After ousting Lugar, Club for Growth’s sterling primary record to be tested — big time
The Club for Growth cemented its role as the preeminent third-party group in Republican primaries on Tuesday, guiding Richard Mourdock to a stunning 22-point win over six-term Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.).
By the end of the Indiana campaign, the Club and its affiliated political action committee, Club for Growth Action, dumped nearly $2 million into ads against Lugar, far exceeding investments by groups like the National Rifle Association ($600,000), Citizens United ($96,000) and spending more on ads than both Lugar ($1.6 million) and Mourdock ($700,000).
It’s just more of the same from a group that has successfully picked its battles over the years and toppled a series of more moderate Republican incumbents and establishment candidates, with very few big losses along the way.
But while the win might have been the Club’s biggest upset to date, the real test may lie ahead.
The Club has backed candidates in four Senate primaries in the coming months, and all but one is an underdog. In addition, it appears likely the Club’s hand-picked candidate will finish third in Nebraska next week.
But first, the Club’s record:
Dick Lugar’s manifesto: Sour grapes or speaking truth to power?
In the wake of a crushing defeat at the hands of state Treasurer Richard Mourdock Tuesday night, Indiana Republican Sen. Dick Lugar congratulated his opponent and wished him well.
Then he put out a 1,425-word statement that reads like a polemic against partisanship the likes of which is rarely seen in modern politics. (NBC’s “First Read” called the Lugar manifesto the incumbent’s Jerry Maguire moment — a particularly apt description.)
Who is Richard Mourdock?
Eight years ago, Richard Mourdock lost a race for a local county council, finishing in fifth place out of six candidates. It was his fifth loss in the first 16 years of his political career.
On Tuesday, Mourdock defeated six-term Sen. Dick Lugar in a Republican primary.
Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock is greeted by supporter Johanna Fultz as he makes a campaign stop Monday at Immanuel Reformed Presbyterian Church near Battle Ground, Ind. (AP Photo/Journal & Courier, John Terhune)
That striking change of fortune for Mourdock is both evidence of the ideal set of circumstances he found in this year’s race and a testament to a long, tough slog to the top for the Indiana state treasurer and now-GOP Senate nominee.
Make no mistake: Tuesday was all about Dick Lugar . But Mourdock’s profile will matter plenty in November — with Democrats already talking about their increased chances of winning the seat.
So just who is Richard Mourdock?
Why Dick Lugar lost
Instant analysis of Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar’s crushing defeat at the hands of state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in Tuesday’s Republican primary cast it as yet another example of a tea party-aligned GOPer ousting a prominent face of the party establishment.
And that instant analysis would be wrong. Lugar lost — and lost badly — for a number of reasons, the vast majority of which had nothing to do with the relative tea party-ness of his opponent.
Sen. Richard Lugar loses primary to Richard Mourdock
Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) lost his primary on Tuesday, becoming the latest Republican to fall victim to a tea party-fueled opponent.
Results early Tuesday night showed state Treasurer Richard Mourdock leading the six-term senator 61 percent to 39 percent with 40 percent of precincts reporting. The Associated Press has called the race for Mourdock.
Mourdock now becomes the GOP standard-bearer in a state where Republicans have a built-in advantage. But his nomination also opens the door a crack to Rep. Joe Donnelly, a Democrat whose chances improve now that he doesn’t have to face the more moderate longtime incumbent.
Familiar trio of states could decide the Senate again
Missouri, Montana and Virginia were the three states that gave Democrats the Senate in 2006 — the three seats that were genuinely in doubt on Election Day and went Democratic.
Now, six years later, those same three states could be the ones that determine whether they can hold that majority.
Or maybe not.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) speaks to constituents during his first campaign in 2006. That year, Tester’s race was one of three that handed the majority to Democrats. This year, a Tester loss could hand the majority back to Republicans. (Melina Mara/The Washington Post)
Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia primaries: What to watch for
Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar’s likely demise and the gubernatorial recall primary in Wisconsin aren’t the only two races worth watching tonight. There are also some key House, Senate and governor primaries in Indiana, North Carolina and West Virginia.
Two of those states — Indiana and North Carolina — represent relatively rare opportunities for the House Republicans to play some offense this year.
In addition, North Carolina Democrats will pick their gubernatorial nominee in the marquee governor’s race of 2012 (after Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s recall election, that is), and West Virginia will hold its governor, Senate and congressional primaries.
There are lots of moving parts; that’s where we come in. Here’s a cheat sheet of what you need to know, state by state and race by race. Impress your friends! Vanquish your enemies!
Scott Brown pushes Elizabeth Warren on Native American issue
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) is calling on Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren, his Democratic challenger, to release all her past job applications and personnel records in order to settle her Native American heritage.
“Serious questions have been raised about the legitimacy of Elizabeth Warren's claims to Native American ancestry and whether it was appropriate for her to assume minority status as a college professor,” Brown said in a statement. “Her changing stories, contradictions and refusal to answer legitimate questions have cast doubt on her credibility and called into question the diversity practices at Harvard.”
Brown added that to clear up any confusion Warren should “authorize the release of her law school applications and all personnel files from the various universities where she has taught.”
Dick Lugar is going to lose. Did he have to?
Indiana Republican Sen. Dick Lugar will almost certainly lose his bid for a seventh term Tuesday at the hands of state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.
On that point, almost everyone in the Republican party agrees. (Polling backs up that idea; a bipartisan survey released late last week showed Mourdock with a 10-point lead on the incumbent.)
There is considerably more disagreement about whether Lugar’s loss was inevitable or whether he could have avoided the fate almost certainly headed his way today. And both arguments have some merit.
Dick Lugar and the biggest primary upsets in Senate history
If the polls are to be believed, Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar will likely join some very rare company on Tuesday, becoming just the seventh senator in 30 years to lose his party’s nomination for reelection.
And Lugar’s tenure in the Senate — 36 years — would make it one of the more notable upsets in Senate history.
But where would it rank in the list of all-time upsets? Below, we rank the biggest primary upsets of an incumbent senator since 1950, including a potential loss by Lugar.
(Side note: Overall, about three dozen senators who have lost primaries over that span, with the vast majority of them occurring in the 1950s, 60s, and 70s.)
Did we miss any? Oversell any? The comments section awaits.
Richard Mourdock up ten points over Dick Lugar in new Indiana Senate poll
A new Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll shows Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock with a ten-point lead over Sen. Dick Lugar in the state's May 8th Republican primary.
Mourdock beats Lugar 48 percent to 38 percent in the bipartisan independent survey, taken Monday and Tuesday of this week.
Elizabeth Warren explains minority listing
Elizabeth Warren explains directory listing, Earl Ray Tomblin might not vote for Obama, Newt Gingrich says Romney isn’t being compared to Reagan, and George LeMieux gets an endorsement.
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Elizabeth Warren’s Native American problem
Elizabeth Warren has a Native American problem.
The Harvard Law professor challenging Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown is facing increasing scrutiny over use of Native American heritage in her legal career.
But it’s not Warren’s family tree that’s really at issue — it’s her ability to fight back.
Let’s start with the facts as we know them.
On Friday, the Boston Herald reported that Harvard Law School had touted Warren as a Native American employee in the 1990s when the school was under fire for lack of diversity. Warren said she had no idea she was described as such until the Herald reported it, although she does have native ancestry. (A genealogist says Warren‘s great-great-great grandmother is listed as Cherokee.)
Elizabeth Warren campaign hits back at ‘nasty insinuations’
Elizabeth Warren pushes back on “Native American” questions, Obama’s half-sister is out with a memoir, Mitt Romney says anyone would have killed bin Laden and Bristol Palin says her mother did a great job, thank you very much.
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Is polarization really all Republicans fault?
In a piece for the Post’s Sunday Outlook section, Thomas Mann and Norm Ornstein write that the rise in political polarization in Congress is not the effect of both parties moving to their ideological extremes but rather of Republicans moving far further to the right than Democrats have moved to the left.
Dick Lugar’s political peril growing
Sen. Dick Lugar (R) has been a conservative target for over a year. But only for the past month has the senator started to fight back against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. With the primary coming up on May 8, it’s likely too little too late.
A yard sign calling for voters to "retire" Sen. Richard Lugar stands along the road in New Palestine, Ind., Friday, March 30, 2012.
(Michael Conroy - AP)
Lugar’s allies no longer seem interested in beating up the man who could very well be their nominee come November.
Heather Wilson’s first Senate campaign ad makes no mention of her time in House
If you want an idea of how unpopular Congress is right now, check out the first ad from New Mexico U.S. Senate candidate (and former House member) Heather A. Wilson:
Sarah Palin endorses Richard Mourdock against Dick Lugar
Sarah Palin picks Richard Mourdock, Mitt Romney tells the young people to go for it, Joe Biden wants a dull audience to stop being so dull and the Arizona special election is heating up.
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Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren release tax returns
After days of sniping over timing and scale, both Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) and Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren (D) have both released several years of past tax returns.
The fight echoes the one between President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney at the national level. Except both Brown and Warren are kind of Obama, and they’re both kind of Romney.
Why is illegal immigration still an issue?
The “Republican DREAM Act” proposed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is a challenge to President Obama on immigration policy, but also a challenge to his own party, which has shied away from immigration reform in favor of border security.
There’s good reason for that. Even as illegal immigration has declined, public concern about the issue and desire for increased border security has stayed high.
Mourdock claims lead over Lugar in Indiana poll by Citizens United
Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock has taken a slight lead on Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) in the state’s Republican Senate primary, according to a new poll from a Mourdock-aligned group.
U.S. Senate candidates running in the GOP primary, Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind.,and Richard Mourdock, left, participate in a debate Wednesday, April 11, 2012, in Indianapolis.
(Darron Cummings - AP)
The poll, conducted by GOP pollster Fritz Wenzel for Mourdock-supporting group Citizens United, shows Mourdock at 44 percent and Lugar at 39 percent. The poll has a margin of error of about 4 percent.
Bill Clinton: The best surrogate in the country
Bill Clinton is the best surrogate in the country.
When it comes to primaries, especially, the man just wins.
On Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Clinton’s endorsement helped guide Rep. Mark Critz and attorney general candidate Kathleen Kane both to come-from-behind victories in their respective primaries.
Former President Bill Clinton, center, speaks with Brett Egan, left, and his mother Charlotte Egan at an Arts summit at the Clinton Presidential Library in Little Rock, Ark., on April 17. (Danny Johnston/AP)
Earlier this month, his endorsement carried businessman John Delaney to an unlikely victory in a congressional primary over a Maryland state legislative leader who had the backing of Gov. Martin O’Malley and House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.). And it wasn’t close.
Think back two years, and Clinton had a major impact in two big-time Democratic Senate primaries, helping Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) win renomination and nearly helping Andrew Romanoff upset Sen. Michael Bennet — against the wishes of the White House, we might add.
In almost every case, Clinton’s candidate exceeded expectations significantly, which heavily suggests that the president can still move votes.
Americans hate super PACs. But will they vote against them?
President Obama tried his best to run a campaign against the influence of super PACs, and he came up short.
But there is some evidence that such a strategy may work on the state level.
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), serving in his sixth term on Capitol Hill, successfully ran against a super PAC at last weekend’s state GOP convention. But can other senators emulate that strategy? (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
Look no further than the Utah Republican Party convention over the weekend. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) took a strong majority of the vote and nearly avoided having to go to a June primary with his opponent — a good showing considering the position Hatch was in last year — and he did it in large part by running against outsiders who had come to Utah to unseat him.
Democratic senator Joe Manchin not sure he’ll back Obama
Joe Manchin not sure he’ll support Obama, Romney wants pledges, someone flips for Gingrich and Ron Paul raised $2.6 million in March.
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What swing states? Senate majority hinges on red states and blue states
We live in a hyper-nationalized political environment these days, in which a Senate candidate’s prospects in a presidential election year depend heavily on how their party’s presidential nominee performs.
And yet, in 2012, the battle for control of the Senate will be fought largely outside the swing states.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) speaks to the media after he was sworn in to be the newest member in the U.S. Senate in February 2010 (Alex Wong — Getty Images)Of the 10 Senate races rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, only two take place in bona fide swing states — Nevada and Virginia — with the possible addition of Wisconsin (which hasn’t gone Republican in the last five presidential races but was close in 2004).
Almost all of the other toss-up races, meanwhile, will take place in either very blue states — Hawaii, Maine and Massachusetts — or pretty red states — Missouri, Montana, and North Dakota.
Meanwhile, the erstwhile big-time swing states — Florida, Ohio and to a lesser extent Michigan and Pennsylvania — are considered a part of the second tier of races. In other words, if the GOP wins these seats, they’ve definitely re-taken a majority in the Senate.
So what does this mean for the race going forward?
What’s the matter with Connie Mack?
When Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) decided to run for Senate last fall, the relief among Florida Republicans was palpable.
In a field of lackluster challengers to Sen. Bill Nelson (D), here was a young star with a great political pedigree. (His father, also named Connie Mack, is a legendary figure in Florida politics.)
Congressman Connie Mack.
(Paul Morigi - WIREIMAGE FOR SPOTLIGHT COMMUNIC)
Six months later, Republicans are grumbling about Mack’s underwhelming campaign, and state Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater is saying he might get into the race. A new poll of Florida insiders say it’s not too late for a new candidate?
What happened?
As always, it’s never one thing that leads a candidate to struggle. But, in conversations with a number of leading Florida Republican strategists they point to cockiness as Mack’s downfall — painting a picture of a candidate too confident to interact well with donors, activists or the press.
“The whole entitled sense of ‘Kiss the ring’ comes across in screaming clarity at every event,” said one experienced Florida strategist.
First quarter fundraising: Winners and losers
While many Americans are busy filing their taxes this week, many politicians were filing their first quarter financial reports last weekend.
Which means The Fix has spent a good portion of the day combing through all the House and Senate candidates’ quarterly financial reports.
We won’t bore you with all the details, but we will give you some highlights. So, without further ado, we bring you our first quarter fundraising winners and losers...
WINNERS
A yard sign calling for voters to "retire" Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) in New Palestine, Ind. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
* Elizabeth Warren: The Massachusetts Democrat has become a mainstay on this list. Look at it this way: Her opponent, Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), raised more money than any other incumbent last quarter, with $3.4 million, and she raised twice as much as him, with $6.9 million. She has also closed the cash-on-hand gap in a hurry; she trails $15 million to $11 million now.
* Richard Mourdock: With $875,000 raised, Mourdock outdid both his incumbent GOP primary opponent, Sen. Richard Lugar ($820,000), and his potential general election opponent, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), who pulled in just $312,000 for the quarter.
Congressional retirements reach highest point since 1996
Congressional retirements continue to mount, and now more incumbents are calling it quits than at any point in the last 16 years.
Rep. Dan Boren (D-Okla.) is one of 25 House incumbents retiring this year. And unlike most of his fellow retirees, his exit puts a previously safe seat in play. (Linda Davidson/Washington Post)
New York Democratic Rep. Edolphus Towns’ retirement announcement today makes him the 25th House retirement of this cycle. Add in the 10 Senate retirements, and you’ve got the most combined retirements since 1996, when Democratic lawmakers retired in droves after the Republican Revolution of 1994 (and many Republicans joined them).
Add in another 15 House members running for other/higher office, and the next Congress is already promising to include plenty of turnover — with 50 out of 535 members (nearly 10 percent) already leaving their seats.
Cory Booker’s next move, and why it might take a while
We here at The Fix are — admittedly — a fan of the political parlor game. We’re always looking for the next big thing in politics, the next potential president, senator or governor.
So when Newark Mayor Cory Booker saves his neighbor from a burning house, needless to say, we take notice.
Newark Mayor Cory Booker talks during a news conference outside of the Prudential Center, Wednesday, April 4, 2012, in Newark, N.J. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
The episode was simply the latest in a long line in a storybook-like political rise, and Booker has long been the subject of speculation about his future. As a young, telegenic, social media-savvy (more than one million Twitter followers) and popular mayor just across the river from New York City, he’s hard to ignore.
The question for a long time, then, has been is what is next for Booker.
The problem, though, is that his state isn’t great for a rising star.
Elizabeth Warren and the Red Sox test
In the 2010 Massachusetts special election, Scott Brown’s pickup truck was the epitome of his shocking special election upset. In 2012, the Republican senator has jumped whole-hog on the Boston Red Sox bandwagon.
Brown, who has built a successful political brand for himself as an average guy who happens to be a senator, is now using the Red Sox to reinforce that fact. This week, he’s going up with his second radio ad of the campaign focused on the BoSox. The first thanked longtime players Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield (knuckleballer!) for their long careers with the team, while the second focuses on the team’s iconic stadium, Fenway Park. (Brown’s radio ads have also mentioned the New England Patriots.)
But this strategy isn’t really about Brown; it’s all about his opponent, Elizabeth Warren.
Richard Lugar targeted by new ads from conservative groups
The air wars have officially commenced in the Indiana Senate race, with the National Rifle Association and Club for Growth launching new ads against Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) and Lugar responding in kind with an ad attacking opponent Richard Mourdock.
A yard signs calling for voters to "retire" Sen. Richard Lugar stands along the road in New Palestine, Ind., Friday, March 30, 2012. Lugar, running for his seventh term in the U.S. Senate, is facing one of his toughest election battles in the Republican primary against state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)The tone of the campaign has taken a sharp turn for the negative with just less than one month remaining in the contest.
Elizabeth Warren raises $6.9 million
Former Obama administration official Elizabeth Warren raised $6.9 million in the first quarter of 2012 in support of her challenge to Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown, a massive sum that doubled what the incumbent collected over the same period.
Elizabeth Warren, left, holds up a poster of herself as Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) right, looks on during the annual St. Patrick's Day Breakfast in Boston, Sunday, March 18, 2012. Warren, a Harvard professor and consumer advocate, is running against Brown who once posed for a centerfold in Cosmopolitan magazine. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Even though Warren has been in the campaign for less than seven months, she has already raised $15.8 million and has about $11 million cash on hand.
Scott Brown raised $3.4 million in first quarter
Scott Brown has a good quarter, Rick Santorum’s daughter is in the hospital, Newt Gingrich is staying in for his donors and Eric Cantor gave to a controversial super PAC.
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The STOCK Act: Refuge of the most vulnerable congressmen in America
President Obama signed the so-called STOCK Act on Wednesday surrounded by a veritable who’s who of endangered incumbents.
President Obama signs the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act with Vice President Joe Biden and Republican and Democratic members of Congress at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on Wednesday. (Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)
There was Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), of course, who has the unenviable task of winning reelection as a Republican in Massachusetts. (Brown has been front-and-center on the bill from day one.)
Then there was Rep. Robert Dold (R-Ill.), whose already-perilous district became even more difficult for him to hold thanks to a redistricting plan crafted by Illinois Democrats this year. He’s arguably one of the five most vulnerable House members in the country.
Orrin Hatch poll shows him in driver’s seat for GOP Senate nod
Utah Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch may not follow in his one-time homestate colleague Bob Bennett’s footsteps after all.
The longtime Utah senator, who is trying to avoid losing, as Bennett did in 2010, at this month’s state GOP convention, released a poll Monday showing he’s in control when it comes to that convention vote. The data also suggests he might do something no one thought possible a few months ago: avoid a primary entirely.
A female edge for Senate Democrats
A series of recent polls have Democrats arguing that Republicans’ policies on women’s health are damaging the GOP in key Senate races.
Women voted about equally Democratic and Republican in 2010 House races, an unusually even split that helped the GOP take back that chamber. Now, Democrats argue that they have regained and even increased their edge among women and it will help them retain control of the Senate.
Resolved: Supercommittees and debt commissions don’t work
The Bowles-Simpson debt reduction commission’s proposed budget went down in flames in the House on Wednesday night, failing by an overwhelming vote of 382 to 38.
And in doing so, it became just the latest bipartisan creation of Congress to crash and burn when it comes time to implement its proposals.
Think about the congressional “supercommittee,” which after the debt ceiling deal of last August was charged with crafting an additional $1.2 trillion in savings. Its effort ended in partisan gridlock, with no votes or even recommendations sent to the whole Congress.
Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, co-chairmen of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, and Alice Rivlin and Pete Domenici, co-chairmen of the Bipartisan Policy Center's Debt Reduction Task Force. (REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst)
Further back, there was the Grace Commission in the 1980s, crafted for much the same reason as Bowles-Simpson and the congressional supercommittee. It went nowhere.
So why doesn’t this kind of thing work? In an era in which Congress raves about bipartisanship, the two commissions designed to craft a bipartisan agreement on fiscal matters have yet to produce any kind of consensus or results.
In the end, they’re failing for the very same reason regular legislation doesn’t pass: members just aren’t ready to stomach voting for them.
Democrats look to stretch the Senate map in Arizona and Indiana
Senate Democrats looking to expand the 2012 Senate playing field have gotten a boost in recent weeks, with Sen. Richard Lugar’s (R-Ind.) 
Senate Foreign Relations Committee ranking member Richard Lugar (R-Ind.). (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)problems snowballing and today in Arizona when the primary field cleared for former U.S. surgeon general Richard Carmona.
The Indiana and Arizona races stand out as the two second-tier targets for Democrats this year — after top-targeted seats in Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada — and if they can push them on to the playing field, it will be much harder for Republicans to secure a majority in November’s election.
But just how competitive are those two states?
Bivens to drop out of Arizona Senate race
Updated at 11:29 a.m. with Bivens’s statement.
Former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Don Bivens is dropping out of the state’s open Senate race, leaving former U.S. surgeon general Richard Carmona a clear Democratic primary.
“The continuing head-to-head competition of our Democratic primary is draining resources that we will need as a party to win the U.S. Senate race in November,” Bivens said in a statement. “While I am confident we would win this primary, the cost and impact on the party I’ve spent my life fighting for could diminish our chance to achieve the ultimate goal: winning in November.”
Club for Growth launches ad against Dick Lugar
The Club for Growth is up with its first television ad against Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar in what appears to be an increasingly perilous primary campaign for the longtime incumbent.
The fiscally conservative Club, whose political action committee endorsed state Treasurer Richard Mourdock back in February, is launching what is technically an issue ad that hits Lugar for his three-plus decades in Congress, as well as his votes on tax issues, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) bailout and the “Bridge to Nowhere” earmark.
More bad news for Dick Lugar
Update: The Club for Growth is now buying airtime in Indiana for what will be like be a campaign against Sen. Lugar, according to an operative who follows media buys.
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Indiana Republican Sen. Dick Lugar will reimburse the government for improperly billing taxpayers for hotel stays in Indianapolis in recent years.
Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind.
(J. Scott Applewhite - AP)
Congressional rules allow Lugar to bill taxpayers for Indianapolis hotel stays when the Senate is in session. But he erroneously used taxpayer money for hotel trips to his home state during adjournments, and after an inquiry from Politico, is reimbursing the Treasury $4,500.
The controversy only added to Lugar’s electoral woes — handing his primary opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, another chance to remind voters that their senator doesn’t actually live in the state in advance of the May 8 vote.
Conservative groups confronting super PACs
On Wednesday, the Club for Growth sent a missive to the GOP establishment with a simple message: Butt out.
Kirsten Gillibrand: I’ll ask Hillary Clinton to run again
New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) plans to ask Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to run for president again.
“I'm going to be one of the first to ask Hillary to run in 2016,” the woman who replaced Clinton in the Senate told BuzzFeed. "I think she would be incredibly well-poised to be our next Democratic president.”
Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown in new poll
Elizabeth Warren ahead in poll, Rick Santorum selling (sweater vests) well, Rice not interested in being vice president, and FreedomWorks making its first House endorsements.
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Paul Ryan’s budget is bad politics. Just ask Republicans.
To much fanfare, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan will unveil his 2012 budget plan in Washington today.
The debut of the House Budget Committee chairman’s vision for what conservative governance could and should look like might win him kudos from the conservative policy class, but it elicits only groans from GOP political professionals.
2012 Senate races: The year of the political comeback
The Democrats’ ability to hold their Senate majority may rest on three candidates who haven’t run for office in more than a decade.
The decisions by former Maine governor Angus King (I) and former Nebraska senator Bob Kerrey (D) to run for Senate this year bring a decidedly old-school flavor to the 2012 Senate map.
Former Maine governor Angus King speaks March 5 at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine. King announced plans to run as an independent for the seat being vacated by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), attempting a political comeback 14 years after he last ran for office. (AP Photo/Joel Page)
King hasn’t run for office since 1998, and for Kerrey, it’s been even longer: 1994. But they’re not the only ones who will have to get rid of the campaign rust.
Lugar ruled ineligible to vote in Indiana
Lugar can’t vote in his own state; three statewide Republicans file for Maine Senate seat; the bungled case against Ted Stevens; and a budding sex scandal in Minnesota.
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Poll shows Santorum leads in Texas
Santorum leads in Texas Democrats are still without a candidate in Maine as Baldacci passes; Mitt Romney gets some pointers; and Scott Brown latches on to the Red Sox. .
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Tim Kaine gets a super PAC, too
Former Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine’s Senate campaign is getting its very own super PAC.
The New Virginia PAC is being launched by two former aides to Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) — Steve Bouchard and Harmony Knutson — and media consultant Mark Longabaugh, for the sole purpose of electing Kaine to the state’s other Senate seat.
New York GOP Rep. Bob Turner to run for Senate
Rep. Bob Turner (R-N.Y.) announced Tuesday that he will seek the Republican nomination to face Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) this year.
Rep. Bob Turner
(Spencer Platt - GETTY IMAGES)
“I will travel to the Republican State Convention in Rochester later this week and humbly ask for the Republican nomination for the United States Senate,” Turner said in a statement, adding: “I have made my intentions known to the other Republican candidates in this race.”
Marco Rubio hits the campaign trail
The Justice Department blocks Texas’s Voter ID law; Rubio hits the campaign trail; Santorum urges an apology for Afghan massacre; and Mikulski prepares to set a record.
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No money, no problem? The Sarah Steelman story
Rumors that Tom Schweich will run against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) is good news for one other Missouri Republican: former state treasurer Sarah Steelman.
If Schweich gets in the race, Steelman would be the sole female candidate facing three men. She would be the only candidate from outside St. Louis.
Maine Rep. Chellie Pingree won’t run for Senate
Maine Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree has opted to run for reelection rather than challenge former Independent governor Angus King for the state’s open Senate seat.
“There is much at stake in this election, and although the prospect of running for and possibly serving in the United States Senate was very exciting, in the end I concluded that I will best serve the people of Maine by running for reelection to the House,” Pingree said in a statement.
The Plum Line’s Greg Sargent broke the news of Pingree’s decision.
Scott Brown pulling ahead in polls
Two polls out this past weekend show Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) pulling ahead of challenger Elizabeth Warren (D) in the Massachusetts Senate race.
A Western New England Polling Institute survey taken Feb. 23 to March 1 has Brown beating Warren 49 percent to 41 percent if the election was held today.
Why Republicans stuck together on the Blunt amendment
All week, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said she was undecided on the Blunt amendment, a measure that would allow employers moral exemptions from health-care coverage.
On Thursday she voted for it, as did every Republican in the Senate save her home-state colleague, Olympia Snowe.
The amendment introduced by Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) gained support and attention as a response to the health-care bill’s birth-control cov erage mandate. But the language was not that specific, and Democrats hammered on the issue in competitive Senate races (just look at this ad). Polls suggest the public supports a compromise from President Obama that would keep Catholic employers from directly paying for contraceptives.
Once-rosy Senate map looking much less friendly for Republicans
Early 2011 was an avalanche of good news for Republicans intent on regaining control of the Senate.
Early 2012 has been a reality check.
Sen. Olympia Snowe’s (R-Maine) retirement announcement Tuesday and former senator Bob Kerrey’s (D-Neb.) announcement Wednesday that he will seek a return to the Senate punctuated what has been a gradual rolling back of the GOP’s early momentum in the race for control of the Senate in 2012.
Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) speaks to media outside her office on Capitol Hill in Washington. Snowe’s retirement announcement this week caught the GOP off-guard and complicated its efforts to win a Senate majority in November. (Carolyn Kaster — Associated Press)
Republicans are still primed to compete for a Senate majority, which would require a four-seat gain, but the map looks significantly more difficult than it did a few weeks ago — to say nothing of the political environment itself.
Bob Kerrey is officially running for Senate in Nebraska
It’s official: Former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) is running for Senate again.
Kerrey had announced earlier this month that would not try to return to the Senate, citing his family in New York City.
“Doing things the conventional way has never been my strong suit,” he said in a statement. “I came to realize that my previous decision was the easy one, not the right one. My commitment to serve Nebraska and America, and to be part of the debate about the challenges we face, was too strong to dismiss.”
Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe to retire in blow to GOP
Maine Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe will not seek reelection in 2012, she announced Tuesday.
Bob Kerrey changes his mind, will run for Senate, source says
Updated at 2:46 p.m.
Former senator Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.) has changed his mind and plans to run for the open Senate seat in Nebraska, according to a senior Democratic aide.
The aide said Kerrey has called Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to inform him of his plans.
Kerrey announced earlier this month that he decided against attempting a return to the Senate, citing his family.
Kerrey’s former campaign manager, Paul Johnson, confirmed to The Fix that Kerrey is reconsidering his previous decision, but stopped short of saying it was a done deal.
“I know he is reconsidering, but I don’t think he has made a final decision,” Johnson said.
Why Marco Rubio’s Mormon past doesn't matter
BuzzFeed broke the story Thursday morning — Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), an outspoken Catholic, was for a few short years of his life a Mormon.
Rubio was baptized into the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints at age eight, and his family was active in their local Nevada church community. His returned to the Catholic Church a few years later, by the time he was 12, and subsequently moved to Miami.*
While he mentions his Catholicism frequently, Rubio also attends a non-denominational church.
Despite his frequent protests, Rubio is on every vice-presidential short list. But would former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, a Mormon, be less willing to choose a running mate with Mormonism in his past? Probably not.
Tea Party faces a turning point in 2012 Senate races
The tea party referendum has officially begun.
Despite the success of tea party candidates all over the country in 2010, many top GOP Senate candidates have avoided the same kind of tough insider-outsider primary matchups that made the summer of 2010 so 
Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) faces a tough primary challenge.
(J. Scott Applewhite - AP Photo)
interesting. The latest is New Mexico Republican Heather Wilson, a moderate whose more-conservative opponent dropped out of the race this week.
But that doesn’t mean the tea party doesn’t have its chances this year.
The Club for Growth’s endorsement of Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock over Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) this week cements that race as the biggest tea party-versus-establishment Senate contest of the cycle. And it may set the tone for the rest of the year.
But there are six other tea party-versus-establishment races worth keeping an eye on. The Fix looks at each of them in chronological order.
Poll shows Elizabeth Warren trailing Scott Brown by 9 points
Could Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) be showing new signs of life in the Massachusetts Senate race?
A new poll from Suffolk University shows Brown regaining a nine-point lead on former Obama aide Elizabeth Warren — a marked shift from a steady stream of polls that showed Warren moving into a virtual tie with the incumbent.
The Suffolk poll shows Brown leading Warren 49 percent to 40 percent and offers a little insight as to why.
Star of controversial Hoekstra ad apologizes
A woman claiming to be the star of a controversial Super Bowl ad run by former congressman Pete Hoekstra’s (R-Mich.) Senate campaign has apologized for playing a role that some have said preys on Asian stereotypes.
“I am deeply sorry for any pain that the character I portrayed brought to my communities,” the actress, Lisa Chan, wrote on her Facebook page. “As a recent college grad who has spent time working to improve communities and empower those without a voice, this role is not in any way representative of who I am. It was absolutely a mistake on my part and one that, over time, I hope can be forgiven. I feel horrible about my participation and I am determined to resolve my actions.”
Sen. Richard Lugar next target of Club for Growth
Sen. Richard Lugar’s (R-Ind.) path to reelection just got tougher, with the conservative Club for Growth PAC endorsing his primary opponent, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock.
The Club, which generally endorses against one or two GOP incumbents every election cycle, has made Lugar its first incumbent target of the 2012 election cycle.
The endorsement is a welcome piece of news for Mourdock’s campaign, which has thus far struggled to raise money. The big advantage to having the Club’s backing is its large network of wealthy donors, who have flooded previous endorsees' campaigns with hundreds of thousands of dollars.
John Sanchez drops out of New Mexico Senate race
New Mexico Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) has dropped his Senate bid — welcome news to former Rep. Heather Wilson, his chief primary opponent.
Sanchez was competing for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D).
“Throughout the course of this campaign, it has become clear to me, that in order to ensure that a Republican is elected to represent New Mexico in the U.S. Senate, the G.O.P must stand united,” Sanchez said in a statement on Thursday. “The reality is that the path forward to success in the campaign could cause a negative primary struggle that would leave the eventual nominee bruised, bloody and broke.”
Pete Hoekstra primary rival calls TV ad ‘demeaning’
One of Pete Hoekstra’s (R) primary rivals is attacking the former House member for an ad that used crude Asian stereotypes.
A screenshot from Hoekstra’s ad.
Clark Durant, a Christian charter school founder challenging Hoekstra in the race to take on Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), put out his own ad calling Hoekstra’s controversial spot “demeaning.”
A November EPIC-MRA poll found Hoekstra with a wide lead over Durant, who is not very well known statewide. But the backlash over Hoekstra’s ad from both Republicans and Democrats could give Durant a chance to move up.
Congress finds a new home in the doghouse
President Obama may be getting a little bump from some improved economic numbers.
Congress? Not so much. It’s still setting records for how unpopular it is.
A new Gallup poll shows Congress’s approval rating has actually hit a new low of 10 percent, despite some positive signs for the economy recently.
That’s down from the previous record of 11 percent, set just two months ago. Meanwhile, a record-high 86 percent of Americans continue to say they disapprove of Congress’s job performance.
So what gives? Are Americans going to stay bitter at Congress even if the economy turns around?
Quite possibly.
Inouye on Hoekstra: ‘His racist thoughts are not welcome in the United States Senate’
Inouye blasts Hoekstra, Bob Turner might have a challenger, Karen Handel has resigned and Palin veteran has a new PAC.
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Bob Kerrey won’t seek Nebraska Senate seat
Former senator Bob Kerrey told The Fix on Tuesday that he will not run for the open Senate seat in Nebraska, a move that robs Democrats of their top potential recruit in a tough state.
Democrats eyed a potential Senate comeback for Kerrey after Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) announced in late December that he wouldn’t seek reelection.
Marco Rubio takes on Obama over contraceptive rule
Marco Rubio has said he’s not interested in being vice president. Repeatedly.
But the Florida Republican senator has thrust himself into the middle of a high-profile, hot-button controversy — a move that will likely spark more talk of his future plans.
Rubio has been positioning himself over the past week as the front person in a fight with President Obama over contraceptive coverage.
Fourth quarter fundraising winners and losers
We’re digging into the just-filed fourth quarter fundraising reports over here at The Fix.
And as usual, that means winners and losers time.
Here’s our initial take on who won and lost for the period spanning October through December. (And let us know what we missed in the comments section):
WINNERS
President Obama: It may not be the billion-dollar campaign that some have suggested, but Obama continues to rake it in, to the tune of $68 million between his campaign and the Democratic National Committee in the fourth quarter. The top GOP candidate, Mitt Romney, raised $24 million.
GOP super PACs: The great equalizers for the GOP, of course, are the rapidly proliferating Republican-leaning super PACs. The top GOP super PACs raised about $60 million in 2011, compared to less than $15 million for their Democratic counterparts. So does the GOP nominee plus super PACs equal an incumbent president? Quite possibly.
Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren : The most expensive Senate race ever?
The Massachusetts Senate race between Republican Sen. Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren has a shot at becoming the most expensive contest in the history of Congress this year.
Brown and Warren have set a torrid fundraising pace thus far, including bringing in about $9 million combined in te final three months of 2011. If they increase that pace just slightly this year — not at all an unreasonable possibility – the Massachusetts Senate race could wind up as the most expensive Senate race ever.
Kent Conrad will serve out term, denies interest in OMB job
Retiring Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) will serve out his term and won’t leave his seat early to become director of the Office of Management and Budget, an aide tells the The Fix.
Conrad has been suggested by some as a potential replacement for recently departed OMB director Jack Lew, who has been named the next White House chief of staff, and Conrad’s staff did nothing to douse the rumors late last week, neither confirming nor denying his interest in the position in an interview with the Bismarck Tribune.
Bob Kerrey spars with Karl Rove
Bob Kerrey vs. Karl Rove, John Edwards has a heart condition, Rick Perry does not have trouble distinguishing mannequins from people and Ed Rollins knows why Romney’s old rivals are coming around.
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Elizabeth Warren raised $5.7 million in fourth quarter
Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren (D) raised a whopping $5.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2011, her campaign announced today.
Sen. Scott Brown (R) raised $3.2 million for the race against Warren in the past three months — a respectable total for a Senate candidate but one that pales in comparison to Warren’s haul.
Ben Nelson retirement: How does it affect the Senate landscape?
Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D) decision to leave the Senate in 2012 clearly makes it more difficult for his party to hold his seat but may not have that large an impact on the national Senate playing field.
Here’s why.
Sen. Ben Nelson won’t seek reelection
Updated at 3:45 p.m. with Nelson’s and Kerrey’s remarks
Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) announced Tuesday he will not seek reelection, leaving his seat as a strong pickup opportunity for the GOP in the 2012 election.
Congress had the “Worst Year in Washington”
In a year filled with bad news, it wasn’t easy to make our pick for who or what had the absolute worst 2011 in Washington.
We weighed giving it to former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D) whose Twitter sex scandal won him a record four “Worst Week” awards. We took into account the more than 71,000 votes that you all cast — with “the long term unemployed” coming out on top. (Weiner was second in the voting.)
Could 2012 be the most competitive Senate election in years?
Twenty Senate seats have changed hands since 2006, the most competitive back-to-back-to-back election cycles since the 1940s. And it might only get more competitive in 2012.
The nature of the map and the high number of quality candidates who have stepped forward in the first year of the 2012 election cycle could put upwards of half of the 33 Senate seats in play.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) waits for a hearing of the Senate Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services and International Security subcommittee hearing at historic Faneuil Hall in Boston in June. (AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)
Already, the Cook Political Report lists 10 Senate races as toss-ups — more than at this point in the 2010, 2008 or 2006 elections. Cook also rates 21 races as being at least somewhat competitive at this point, which is at least five more than any of the three preceding elections.
And if the Senate is indeed at stake — Republicans need to gain three seats for a tie and four for the majority — it appears as though it won’t be decided in just a couple states, but rather by competitive races all over the country.
American public to Congress: Get out. All of you.
The American electorate is primed to throw out record numbers of incumbents in the 2012 election, according to new polling from the Pew Research Center.
Everywhere you look in the numbers, which were released this morning, you see political land mines for incumbents.
Sixty seven percent say they want to see most Members of Congress voted out in 2012, the highest that number has ever been in Pew polling. And, while people are more favorably inclined to see their own Member re-elected, (50 percent yes/33 percent no) those numbers still match historic lows.
Afternoon Fix: Gingrich assails Romney for ‘bankrupting and laying off employees’ at Bain
Gingrich goes there on Romney’s business record; Romney spars with a gay veteran in New Hampshire; and Hirono’s poll shows her leading Case in Hawaii.
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Wisconsin Senate hopeful’s relationship with Gingrich typifies a complex speakership
Former Wisconsin Republican Rep. Mark Neumann says his relationship with Newt Gingrich is positively Dickensian.
As in: His two terms in Congress under Speaker Gingrich were the best of times and the worst of times.
With Gingrich now a top-tier candidate for the White House and Neumann seeking the Republican nominationin for the Badger State’s open Senate seat, the two men could soon be thrust into the GOP’s effort to reclaim both. And teamwork hasn’t always come easy for the two.
Republican presidential candidate and former House speaker Newt Gingrich speaks at Tommy's Ham House in Greenville , S.C., last week. (AP Photo/Richard Shiro, File)
Neumann typifies conservative hesitation toward Gingrich’s presidential campaign — particularly among those in the GOP who have spent years either as Gongrich’s colleagues, rivals or something in between. And, like most of that group, Neumann is hopeful that Gingrich succeeds even as he clearly holds reservations about the former House speaker.
“Newt Gingrich is a brilliant man,” Neumann said in an interview with The Fix. “If you ask me, intellectually, does he have the knowledge and the wherewithal to lead the United States of America, I would definitely answer that question, yes. There are some other parts, obviously, as a conservative that I’m not enthused about.”
President Obama channels Elizabeth Warren in Kansas speech
In a nearly hour-long speech that had a distinctly political feel to it, President Obama borrowed rhetorically from Massachusetts Senate candidate — and liberal heroine — Elizabeth Warren to make his case on the economy in Kansas today.
Warren, who helped Obama create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, drew national headlines earlier this fall when she insisted that “there is nobody in this country who got rich on his own” as a way to rebut charges that Democrats were engaging in class warfare (The video of Warren’s remarks has been viewed more than 807,000 on You Tube.)
Elizabeth Warren: Obama’s natural heir?
Ever since she formally decided to challenge Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R), Elizabeth Warren has been a national Democratic phenomenon.
She raised more than $3 million in just the first few weeks of cash collection, rang up more than 796,000 hits on You Tube for her pronouncement that “there is nobody in this country who got rich on his own”, and is regularly drawing large number of volunteers to her campaign headquarters almost a year before the 2012 election.
Elizabeth Warren hit airwaves with first TV ad (video)
Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren (D) is going on the air today in the Massachusetts Senate race with a one-minute biographical ad, an attempt to define the Harvard Law professor and former Obama administration adviser for voters before her opponents can.
It is the first broadcast ad in the race, where Warren will likely face Sen. Scott Brown (R) next November, although conservative super PAC Crossroads GPS went on the air with an ad attacking the Democratic candidate last week.
Senate recruits Mack, Heitkamp and Carmona have a lot to prove
A pair of Senate recruits have given Democrats a new lease on life in Arizona and North Dakota, while the GOP is newly optimistic about victory in the Florida Senate contest thanks to its own new recruit.
But in all three cases, the jury is very much out on these new candidates for the 2012 Senate battle.
Live-blogging the 2011 election!
Voters are voting across in the country in the 2011 off-year elections!
A woman enters a polling place during election day at Midland School, Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2011 in Paramus, N.J. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)The focus will be on ballot measures in Ohio (on collective bargaining rights for public-sector unions) and Mississippi (on personhood for a fertilized egg) but there are a slew of other interesting races across the country including: battle for control of the state Senates in Virginia and Iowa, governors races in Kentucky and Mississippi and a special House election in Oregon’s 1st district.
The Fix posse — Fix original recipe, FixAaron and FixRachel — will be keeping an eye on all the results throughout the night via our handy, dandy live-blog. We’ll get started around 7 p.m.
Come and hang out! In the meantime, check our our look at the five big questions that voters will answer tonight.
Sherrod Brown and the Wellstone factor
If every swing state Democrat voted as consistently liberally as Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown has during his first five years in the chamber, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Patty Murray’s job in 2012 would be much, much harder.
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), left, participates in a news conference on Capitol Hill to discuss the political challenges facing health reform efforts. (J. Scott Applewhite, AP)
And yet, instead of being a political pariah, the DSCC sees Brown as something of a model for other candidates — in large part because his personal popularity and populist style they think could inoculate him from a voting record that at first glance looks to be the ideological left of the Buckeye State.
Incumbency is a dirty word in 2012
In an election that has already produced any number of eye-popping poll numbers — Donald Trump as a viable presidential candidate! Herman Cain as the GOP frontrunner! — a new data point from the latest NBC-Wall Street Journal poll may well be the most revealing yet.
Asked whether it would be acceptable or unacceptable if after the 2012 election “many of the members of Congress in the House and Senate who have been in office for 15 years or longer are defeated” 51 percent said that outcome would be “strongly acceptable” to them while just six percent said it would be strongly unacceptable.
Florida Rep. Connie Mack to run for Senate
Rep. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) has changed his mind and will run for Senate next year, according to a source with knowledge of his plans.
Mack adds new blood to an already pitched Republican primary to face Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.).
Alan Khazei and Rep. John Olver bow out, clearing things up for Massachusetts Dems
Things are falling into place for Massachusetts Democrats, after two politicians cleared up their future plans Wednesday.
Senate candidate Alan Khazei — the best-funded primary opponent of Democratic favorite Elizabeth Warren — announced he was dropping out of the race. And Rep. John Olver (D-Mass.) announced that he will not seek reelection, in a move that eases a potentially tough redistricting process for the state’s line-drawers.
NPR finds new discrepancies in Rubio’s family history
National Public Radio has raised more questions about the biography of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who told a reporter two years ago a story of his family’s departure from Cuba that does not mesh with his current accounts.
The Post’s Manuel Roig-Franzia pointed out some discrepancies in Rubio’s version of his family history in a story last week. The senator has frequently stated that his parents came from Cuba in 1959 or after Fidel Castro took power. Castro took control of the island in January1959. Records show that his parents left in May 1956 — long before Castro took power and six months before Castro even invaded the island.
How will Marco Rubio’s past affect his political future?
The news that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had, at times over the years, wrongly recounted the timeline of his parents’ arrival in America is the first major test for the national Republican party’s fastest rising star.
The story, reported by the Post’s Manuel Roig-Franzia, makes clear that Rubio’s parents emigrated from Cuba before not after dictator Fidel Castro came to power.
GOP struggles to land top-tier talent in top-targeted Missouri
By all accounts, Missouri should be fertile territory for the Republican Party to win both a Senate seat and the governor’s mansion in 2012. After all, it was basically the only swing state President Obama lost in 2008, and his approval rating there is just plain awful at the moment.
The problem for Republicans has been finding someone — anyone — who is up to the task.
Elizabeth Warren, Ron Paul and ‘supercommittee’ members big winners in the third-quarter fundraising wars
Candidates for House, Senate and president had to file third-quarter fundraising reports by midnight Saturday.
The reports are currently being combed all over Washington for signs of strength and weakness, as parties and pundits try to discern who is assembling legitimate and well-funded campaigns, and who are the pretenders.
Which is where The Fix comes in.
Below the jump is our look at who the big winners and losers are for the third quarter.
GOP expands the Senate map, but Democrats ready to play offense
New York Democratic Sen. Charles Schumer said this week that he thinks every Democratic incumbent running in 2012 will win reelection and that his party could actually pick off a seat or two from the GOP.
The first part of that statement seems a bit too optimistic though the second part could actually happen.
Afternoon Fix: Scott Brown accused of plagiarism, blames staff
Scott Brown lifted from Elizabeth Dole, Huntsman and Gingrich are threatening a boycott, John Edwards says Obama could have stopped his indictment and Paul Ryan loves 9-9-9.
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What if the 2012 election doesn’t change anything?
For months, politicians have been pointing to the 2012 election as a final judgment (or at least the next judgment) on what the American people want from their government and elected officials.
Do they want more government? Less government? Somewhere in between? That, politicians of both parties say, is what the 2012 election will tell us.
Former governor Linda Lingle to run for Senate in Hawaii
Updated at 1:00 p.m.
Republicans have landed their top recruit in the open Hawaii Senate race, with former governor Linda Lingle entering the race and giving the GOP a chance to win in a heavily Democratic state.
Lingle announced her intentions during an interview with KSSK-AM radio shortly before 1 p.m. eastern time.
Elizabeth Warren raises $3.15 million for her first Senate race
In just a few weeks, Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren has raised $3.15 million for her Senate campaign — another sign that the Massachusetts race will be one of the most hotly-contested of 2012.
Warren is hoping to face Sen. Scott Brown (R) next fall, who won his seat in a special election in early 2009. A recent Western New England University poll finds her five points behind the senator in a head-to-head matchup, despite being far less well-known.
Afternoon Fix: Scott Brown takes heat for clothing comment
Scott Brown says “Thank God” Elizabeth Warren kept her clothes on in college, Herman Cain says he wouldn’t be Perry’s VP, and Joe Biden says he sympathizes with the occupiers.
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Nebraska GOP frontrunner takes a few steps back
The Nebraska Republican primary was supposed to be a coronation for state Attorney General Jon Bruning. Instead, it has revealed some significant holes in the political armor of the man many GOPers expected to beat Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson next year.
Four years after he stepped aside for former governor Mike Johanns in an open Nebraska Senate race, Bruning finally got his chance — and a golden one at that.
Elizabeth Warren video stirs up “class warfare” in Massachusetts
Much has been made of the viral video circulating of Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren (D) making a forceful argument for more taxation of rich people.
But the fiery rhetoric in the video suggests Warren could prove too liberal for even Massachusetts.
Warren made her political name as a consumer hero as the former head of the consumer oversight panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. President Obama hired her in 2010 to create the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau established by the financial reform legislation that grew out of the subprime mortgage mess. Senate Republicans opposed her nomination to lead the new office, and even some administration officials were reportedly against her.
Tommy Thompson filing for Senate in Wisconsin
Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson (R) is taking another step towards a Senate bid.
Thompson told a local radio station Monday morning that he’s running for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Herb Kohl (D), saying, “An announcement will be coming very soon...we're doing it in steps because that's what the federal law requires.”
Democrats get their woman in Massachusetts. Now what?
After months of searching for a top-tier candidate to take on Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) in 2012, national Democrats — finally — landed their pick in the form of former Obama Administration official Elizabeth Warren.
Elizabeth Warren speaks with voters as she campaigns after announcing her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Framingham, Massachusetts, September 14, 2011. REUTERS/Adam Hunger
Now that Warren is in the race, the question is what kind of candidate will she be?
Democrats insist early returns are promising, noting that Warren was at a “T” stop in Boston at 7 am on the first day of her campaign and kept at it until late at night.
One day, of course, does not a campaign make. And Republicans will work very hard to paint Warren as an out-of-touch Harvard elitist — Warren is on staff at Harvard Law School — who can’t win over the blue-collar Democrats who will likely be the swing vote of this election.
Elizabeth Warren announces campaign in video
Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren (D) announced her campaign against Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) this morning via web video.
Warren made the plan official in a statement Tuesday afternoon. Warren is spending the day traveling around the state, starting her first day of campaigning at a subway stop in South Boston where she greeted commuters.
The video is conversational. “I’m going to do this,” she says at the outset, sitting by herself near a window in a blue suit jacket. “I’m going to run for the United States Senate.”
Elizabeth Warren running against Scott Brown for Senate
Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren is making it official — she’s running against Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in 2012.
The former Obama admistration official will announce her bid Wednesday with an online video as she continues her tour of Massachusetts.
“The pressures on middle class families are worse than ever, but it is the big corporations that get their way in Washington,” Warren said in a statement. “I want to change that. I will work my heart out to earn the trust of the people of Massachusetts.”
Warren appears before the Senate Finance Committee with TARP Special Inspector General Neil Barofsky and acting U.S. Comptroller General Gene Dodaro to testify about TARP oversight.
(Chip Somodevilla - GETTY IMAGES)
The move was widely expected, as Warren has already formed an exploratory committee and hired strategists. She has the backing of the Massachusetts’ Nurses Association. But Warren wanted to embark on a listening tour of the state before making her final decision.
While Warren joins a crowded primary field, she is expected to vault to frontrunner status upon launch. A recent WBUR poll showed her nine points behind Brown — closer than any other Democratic candidate. She is also better known than any of the other would-be challengers.
Will Tammy Baldwin be the first openly gay Senator?
Wisconsin Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D) has made it official — she’s running for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Herb Kohl (D) next year.
If she wins, Baldwin will make history as the the first openly gay member of the Senate. But how much will her sexuality factor into the race (if at all)?
Florida Sen. Bill Nelson in same spot as Obama
Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla) beats all potential challengers in a new poll.
(J. Scott Applewhite - AP)
A new poll suggests that Florida Republicans should be very disappointed that Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) isn’t running for Senate.
Like President Obama, Sen. Bill Nelson (D) gets mediocre approval ratings, but he’s benefiting from a weak field of challengers.
The Sachs/Mason-Dixon poll of 625 registered voters found Nelson leading every potential challenger by double-digits — except for West, who announced earlier this week that he would not run.
Romney aide accused of assuming fake Twitter handle @CrazyKhazei
(Blue Mass Group)
Updated at 7:30 p.m.
A strategist for 2012 presidential candidate Mitt Romney and Republican Sen. Scott Brown (Mass.) has admitted to authoring a fake Twitter account that makes light of the “It Gets Better Project” for gay youth and pokes fun at reporters covering Massachusetts politics.
Romney strategist Eric Fehrnstrom admitted on Wednesday evening to authoring the fake Twitter account @CrazyKhazei.
“It was my Twitter acccount,” the aide said in an email to the Boston Globe. “Sometimes we take our politics too seriously and this was my way of lightening things up. As they say in politics, if you can’t stand the tweet, get out of the kitchen.”
The liberal blog Blue Mass Group early Wednesday morning posted a screenshot of a tweet from Romney and Brown strategist Fehrnstrom’s Twitter account that appeared to promote an endorsement for 2012 Brown opponent Alan Khazei’s (D) campaign as if speaking for Khazei’s campaign.
The blog pointed out that the tweet appeared similar to tweets from a fake Khazei Twitter account called @CrazyKhazei, which lampoons the Democratic Senate candidate. The tweet appears to have been deleted from Fehrnstrom’s account, as it no longer appears in his feed.
Social media experts have pointed out that it’s relatively easy for authors of multiple Twitter accounts to accidentally post something meant for one account on another account’s feed.
Fehrnstrom did not respond to several efforts to reach him, and Romney’s campaign declined to say earlier in the day whether it had any knowledge of the aide’s involvement in the fake Twitter feed.
Hector Balderas joins New Mexico Senate race
New Mexico state Auditor Hector Balderas announced Tuesday that he will run for Senate in New Mexico, setting up a Democratic primary between he and Rep. Martin Heinrich.
Balderas joins the race the day after Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) opted against running for the seat, and some think he could give the popular Heinrich a run for his money — particularly if he can unite the sizeable Hispanic contingent in the Democratic primary.
The GOP’s tough path in Hawaii
Sen. Daniel Akaka’s (D-Hawaii) announcement Wednesday that he will retire set off another set of alarm bells among campaign-watchers.
Republicans, all of a sudden, have another pickup opportunity in their quest to retake a Senate majority — a fifth state where a Democrat or Democratic-caucusing independent has opted not to seek another term. And the GOP appears to have a candidate ready to carry the banner – a two-term former governor, no less.
But while all eyes are on recently departed governor Linda Lingle (R) as the most high-profile potential entrant into the race, we must remember few things about Hawaii.
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