The Fix: White House
Artur Davis: ‘I know what Joe Biden was doing yesterday’
Artur Davis weigh on Biden’s “chains” comment, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) will talk about Medicare in Ohio, and Rep. Cliff Stearns (R-Fla.) concedes.
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EARLIER ON THE FIX:
How Tommy Thompson’s win in Wisconsin changes the Senate majority fight
Ann Romney: Releasing more taxes would mean more attacks
Ann Romney says she and her husband, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, have “nothing” they are hiding in their financial record, but won’t be releasing more tax returns publicly because it will only prompt more attacks.
“We have been very transparent to what’s legally required of us,” Ann Romney told NBC’s “Rock Center” in an interview scheduled to air Thursday evening. “There’s going to be no more tax releases given.”
Paul Ryan makes solo debut in Iowa
Mitt Romney talks Medicare in Florida, Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) makes his solo debut in Iowa, and Bill Clinton enters the fray in Connecticut's 5th District.
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Can Paul Ryan deliver Wisconsin for Romney?
Mitt Romney took the historically rare step Saturday of selecting a running mate from one of the most competitive states in the presidential race.
But it's unclear that the pick will -- or was even designed to -- help Romney secure the vote in Wisconsin.
White House refuses to back Reid’s tax attack
Jay Carney won’t join Reid’s tax attack against Romney, Mica cries foul over an Adams ad, and first lady Michelle Obama will sit down with Jay Leno.
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How President Obama changed the gun debate
The Fix wrote Friday that gun control policy was unlikely to change in the wake of the Aurora, Colorado movie theater shooting.
A majority of Americans now oppose more strict restrictions on guns, and tragic — and high profile — shootings have done little impact on those numbers.
What has impacted the numbers in the gun control debate? Interestingly enough, President Obama’s election in 2008.
In both Washington Post and Pew polling, opposition to gun control ticked up significantly after President Obama’s election. Support for gun control has been steadily eroding for years, but these jumps were larger than the changes that occured before and after the election.
When politics stops — and how it never really does
In a speech today addressing the tragic shootings in Aurora, Colorado, President Obama said that “there are going to be other days for politics...This, I think, is a day for prayer and reflection.”
US President returns early to the White House in Washington,DC on July 20, 2012 after cancelling a campaign stop in Florida. Obama and his rival Mitt Romney suspended their campaigning out of respect for the victims of a shocking shooting at a Colorado movie theater that left 12 people dead and over 50 injured. AFP PHOTO/Nicholas KAMMHe’s right. Both Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney canceled planned campaign rallies, pulled negative ads and generally refrained from doing anything that appeared even remotely political.
But, to assume that politics ever truly stops in this country — even in moments of national tragedy and mourning like this one — is a mistake. Politics and political campaigns don’t happen in a vacuum. Every external event — from the joyous to the tragic — is a piece of the broader political puzzle.
Eric Holder calls photo ID laws ‘poll taxes’
Eric Holder fires up the NAACP crowd, Ben Quayle ups the ante, Mitt Romney turns outsourcing around on Obama, and Crossroads GPS drops $2.5 million.
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President Obama: A man of many slogans
Did you know that President Obama’s official reelection campaign slogan is “Forward”?
President Obama delivers remarks in Parma, Ohio. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty)
You can be forgiven if you didn’t. After all, Obama’s campaign and the White House have offered a series of slogans over the course of the last two year as the incumbent has tried to sell his policies and position himself politcally for his reelection race this fall.
But the man who was so defined by two slogans in his 2008 campaign — “Hope” and “Change We Can Believe In” — has yet to really strike slogan gold this time around.
President Obama’s massive swing state spending edge
President Obama has spent more than $91 million on television ads in eight swing states as of July 6, a massive sum that dwarfs the $23 million former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has disbursed on campaign commercials in those same places. Only heavy spending by Republican super PACs is keeping Romney within financial shouting distance of the incumbent on television at this point.
The data, which was provided to the Fix by a Republican media buyer, paints a fascinating picture of Obama’s overwhelming ad advantage in each of the states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Virginia — where both campaigns are spending.
The spending disparity between the campaigns is particularly pronounced in three of the swingiest states: Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
In Florida, Obama has spent $17 million on TV ads as compared to $2 million for Romney. In Ohio, it’s $22 million for Obama to $6.5 million for Romney; and in Virginia, Obama has spent $11 million on TV ads to less than $3 million for Romney.
Texas case puts voter ID laws to test
Voter ID laws face a high-profile test this week as the U.S. District Court in Washington, DC hears arguments about Texas’ controversial new regulations.
The case pits Texas against Attorney General Eric Holder, who has earned the ire of Republicans across the country for challenging new
Attorney General Eric Holder speaks during a news conference in New Orleans, on June 28.
(Bill Haber - AP)
voting restrictions. Republicans say the Justice Department should be more concerned about fraud; the DOJ counters that these laws suppress minority turnout.
President Obama’s troubling trend line on jobs
The news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning that the economy added just 80,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate stayed stuck at 8.2 percent suggests that any hope that President Obama will be able to run for reelection bolstered by an improving financial picture is rapidly disappearing.
The June jobs report and President Obama’s summer swoon(s)
The three summers of President Obama’s first term in office have been decidedly unkind to him on the economic front, a trend that puts even more importance on this morning’s June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
MAUMEE, OH - JULY 05: U.S. President Barack Obama arrives to speak at a campaign event at the Wolcott House Museum Complex July 5, 2012 in Maumee, Ohio. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)In each of the past three summers, the unemployment rate has bumped upwards while the job creation numbers have either leveled off or dipped downward. That trend — plus the fact that we are 123 days before the election — makes the BLS’s 8:30 announcement of the utmost political importance.
Does Mitt Romney have a staff problem?
Talk of a shakeup in Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign is running rampant, with the expectation within the Republican political class that the former Massachusetts governor will add seasoned hands rather than part ways with any of his current senior staffers.
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney finishes speaking about the Supreme Court ruling on health care in Washington, Thursday, June 28, 2012. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)
At the heart of the critique of the Romney campaign, which began with a tweet from News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch and has continued with a stinging Wall Street Journal op-ed and harsh words for the campaign from the Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol today, is the idea that the presidential candidate’s staff may not be up to the task of running the sort of race it will take to beat President Obama.
“The campaign needs to show the GOP elite world and the media a lot of competence going forward or this shake-up talk will only get louder and continue,” predicted one Republican adviser watching from the sidelines.
Americans split on Supreme Court decision
Public opinion on last week’s Supreme Court ruling on the sweeping federal health care reform law is as sharply divided along partisan and ideological lines as are views of the law itself, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. 
Supporters of President Barack Obama's health care law celebrate outside the Supreme Court in Washington, Thursday, June 28, 2012, after the court's ruling was announced. AP Photo/David Goldman)
(David Goldman - AP)
Most Americans agree on one thing related to the court’s upholding the law – that they feel “strongly” about the outcome - but the consensus ends there.
How John Roberts became the story
In a 2010 Pew poll less than three in ten Americans knew that John Roberts was the Chief Justice of the United States. But, his pivotal role in Thursday’s Supreme Court decision to uphold President Obama’s health care law might well turn Roberts into a more household name.
According to Google data, searches for Roberts soared between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. eastern time Thursday, far outdistancing other terms like “individual mandate” and “SCOTUS”.
Here’s a chart from the good people at Google detailing the top five rising search terms over that critical three hours on Thursday.
On ‘Fast and Furious’ vote, Congress affirms all the bad things people already think of them.
The House vote to hold Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt for his withholding of documents related to Operation “Fast and Furious” brought brisk — and heated — rhetoric from the two parties.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) called the vote an “abuse of power”. House Speaker John Boehner (Ohio) said that “no Justice Department is above the law and no Justice Department is above the Constitution, which each of us has sworn an oath to uphold.”
And yet, for all of that amped-up oratory from top leaders in their respective parties, the likely effect of today’s vote — to the extent there is one — is to convince people that all the bad things they think about Congress are, well, true.
Natoma Canfield, the cancer survivor Obama cited
In his remarks on the Supreme Court’s ruling in favor of his health-care reform law, President Obama devoted a sizable portion of his remarks to a little-known Ohio woman: Natoma Canfield.
“There’s a framed letter that hangs in my office right now. It was sent to me during the health-care debate by a woman named Natoma Canfield,” Obama said. “I carried Natoma’s story with me every day of the fight to pass this law.”
Canfield told Obama that after she was diagnosed with cancer, her insurance rates kept going up until she lost her coverage.
“It was amazing, just amazing,” the 52-year-old Medina, Ohio, resident told The Fix. She watched Obama’s announcement on mute, from a restaurant, with the words crawling across the screen. I couldn’t believe the president of the United States had my letter framed on his wall.”
Poll: Obama, Romney lack clear plans for nation
Majorities of Americans say neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear plan to fix the nation’s problems, according to a Gallup poll released Wednesday, a signal that neither candidate has made a successful case to be president in 2013.
FILE - In 2012 file photos President Barack Obama, left, Talks to reporters in Washington on June 8 and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign stop in Cincinnati, Ohio, on June 14 (AP Photo/Scott Applewhite, left, and Evan Vucci, file)Fifty-nine percent of the public says Obama, who has been in office more than three years, lacks a clear plan to fix the country’s problems. Slightly fewer, 53 percent, say the same of Romney.
And, the problems for both candidates go deeper than that. Even as both outline their vision on the campaign trail, many Americans will be leery of trusting them: Six in 10 say Obama and Romney each change their positions on issues for political reasons.
President Obama booed over Red Sox joke
President Obama (re)learned a political lesson as old as time on Monday night: Don’t mess with the Boston Red Sox in Massachusetts. Like, ever.
The president was reportedly booed at a fundraiser in Boston after making reference to a trade this week between his hometown Chicago White Sox and the BoSox.
“Finally Boston, I just want to say: Thank you for Youkilis,” Obama said, referring to longtime Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis, who was traded to the White Sox on Sunday.
It didn’t go over well with the crowd. Reporters in the room said Obama was booed, as did the White House transcript and Obama himself.
“I didn’t think I’d get any boos out of here,” Obama said. ”I should not have brought up baseball. I understand. My mistake. My mistake. You gotta know your crowd.”
Democrats: No trouble raising money for convention
Democrats say there’s no truth to a Bloomberg report that the party is struggling to raise funds for its Charlotte, N.C., convention.
In a story on planners’ decision not to hold a kick-off event at the Charlotte Motor Speedway, Hans Nichols wrote:
The move comes as party planners are grappling with a fundraising deficit of roughly $27 million, according to two people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to discuss internal party politics. With a party ban on direct contributions from corporations, the host committee has raised less than $10 million, well short of its $36.6 million goal, said one of the people.
Democrats denied that there was any fundraising problem, or that money had anything to do with the decision to move the free kick-off event from the Speedway to Uptown.
A crisis of economic confidence?
New weekly tracking numbers from Gallup show that economic confidence in the country is at its lowest ebb since late January, a bad sign for President Obama as he seeks to convince the public that the financial health of the country is getting slowly but surely better.
The latest Gallup Economic Confidence Index, which combines how people feel about the current economic conditions in the country and what the future holds for the economy, stands at -26.
Could President Obama run against the Supreme Court?
Let’s say that later this morning (or on Thursday), the Supreme Court rules that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional, thereby invalidating — whether in part or in total — the signature legislative accomplishment of President Obama’s first term.
The initial reactions are predictable. Republicans would be triumphant, Democrats depressed. And, as we have written before, it’s not entirely clear that anything — up to and including the Supreme Court’s decision — can drastically alter public opinion regarding Obama’s health care law.
John Bryson, Commerce Secretary, explained
In light of Commerce Secretary John Bryson’s decision to resign his office today, we are re-posting our explainer on who he is and what the Commerce Department does. The post, which first ran on June 12, is below.
ORIGINAL POST
Commerce Secretary John Bryson has taken a medical leave of absence after getting involved in three traffic accidents Saturday during what officials say was a seizure. His deputy, Rebecca Blank, will take over as acting secretary.
Bryson’s accident(s) has drastically raised the profile of the Commerce Department, which has long been one of the more minor members of a President’s Cabinet.
So, what does the Commerce Secretary do?
Is President Obama baiting House Republicans?
In the past six days, President Obama has sent a very clear message to Republicans in Congress. And that message goes like this: Bring it on.
His decision to stop actively deporting young illegal immigrants, which was announced last Friday, and his action Wednesday to invoke executive privilege over documents tied to the “Fast and Furious” program both amount to a finger in the eye of House GOPers.
The political fight on health care is over. Republicans won.
While official Washington waits with bated breath for the Supreme Court to announce its decision on the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law, a new study from the Pew Research Center makes it abundantly clear that the political fight over health care is already over. And Republicans won.
Why Republicans can’t write off Hispanics
Much has been made in the last 96 hours of President Obama’s decision to stop deporting young illegal immigrants and its impact on the 2012 election.
And while the short-term political impact of how the announcement could impact Obama’s strength among Hispanic voters is significant, it pales in comparison to the long-term political effect if Hispanics become a solidly Democratic voting bloc in the way that African-Americans have.
Since 1992, Republicans have lost ground with with black and Asian-American voters while largely holding steady(ish) with Hispanics. The only gains they have made are with white voters; 40 percent of whites voted for George H.W. Bush in 1992, while 55 percent of white voters chose John McCain in 2008.
Here’s the full vote breakout — courtesy of our partners @postpolls — of the vote by race from 1992 to 2008.
A silver lining in May jobs report for President Obama
President Obama continues to struggle to recover politically from a disastrous May jobs report that showed that just 69,000 jobs were created in the month while the national unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2 percent.
Obama and his campaign team have spent much of the two and a half weeks since the release of the jobs report fighting back against chatter — much of it from within their own party — that the president badly needs a course correction when it comes to his economic messaging.
Why President Obama’s golf habit doesn’t matter
President Obama achieved a milestone (of sorts) on Sunday: He played his 100th round of golf since being sworn in three and a half years ago.
President Barack Obama swings to hit the ball out of a sand trap while playing golf at the Vineyard Golf Club, in Edgartown, Mass., on the island of Martha's Vineyard, Friday, Aug. 19, 2011. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
CBS News’ Mark Knoller, the (un)official keeper of the White House records, commemorated the moment with — what else — a tweet:
As he plays his 100th round of golf as president, its clear Pres Obama loves the game and is also frustrated by it.
— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) June 17, 2012
Is success possible for a president?
Being president ain’t what it used to be.
U.S. President Barack Obama waves to photographers from inside his vehicle after arriving to Los Cabos international airport to attend the G-20 Summit in Baja California Sur, Mexico, Sunday, June 17, 2012. (AP Photo/Andres Leighton)Over the last decade, the splintering of the media has combined with the rise of social networking (and microblogging), a sustained pessimism in the electorate and record levels of partisanship to make success a virtually unachievable goal for any president.
As we wrote in our Monday Fix newspaper column:
“The last week in politics is illustrative of the massive communications challenges a president faces. The week began for President Obama with news from the West Coast that his Commerce secretary, John Bryson, had been involved in a series of car accidents reportedly due to a medical condition.
President Obama made a political decision on immigration. So what?
In the immediate aftermath of President Obama’s decision to stop deporting young illegal immigrants on Friday, Republicans stayed silent as they sought to calculate the right response — one that would walk the fine line between alienating their political base and sending (another) negative signal to the Hispanic community they badly need to court.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney eventually released a statement and then followed up on it during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation” — his first non-Fox News Channel Sunday show interview during the campaign to date.
Here’s what Romney told “Face” host Bob Schieffer:
“ I think the timing is pretty clear, if [Obama] really wanted to make a solution that dealt with these kids or with illegal immigration in America, than this is something he would have taken up in his first three and a half years, not in his last few months.”
Schieffer followed up by asking Romney if that meant that the president’s motivations were solely political. “Well, that’s certainly a big part of the equation,” responded Romney.
Romney’s right. And it doesn’t matter a bit.
Steve King threatens to sue over Obama immigration order
Already, at least one Republican has fallen right into President Obama’s hands.
Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) announced Friday that he plans to sue the president for issuing an executive order blocking deportations of some young immigrants.
“I expect to bring a lawsuit against the president of the United States to suspend his executive order,” King told the Des Moines Register. He made similar comments to Mike Huckabee in a radio interview, noting that he successfully sued then-Gov. Tom Vilsack in 1999 over an executive order that barred discrimination against gay, lesbian and transgender government employees.
Republicans struggle to respond to Obama’s immigration decision
Updated at 4:21 p.m.
Just hours after word leaked out that the Obama administration would stop deporting young illegal immigrants who were brought to the United States by their parents, the issue is already causing headaches for the Republican Party.
The party, which has previously split over its own president’s efforts on illegal immigration reform, is similarly stuck when it comes to Obama’s decision.
And at a time when party unity is paramount, the move is exposing fissures.
This photo provided by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Wednesday, March 28, 2012, in New Jersey, shows agents taking a person into custody during operation Cross Check III. (AP Photo/U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement)
President Obama: Pot-stirrer
Whatever you want to say about President Obama, you have to give him some credit for one thing: He’s not afraid to stir the pot in the runup to the 2012 election.
President Obama speaks at a campaign event at Cuyahoga Community College in Cleveland, Ohio, on Thursday. (Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)First it was his administration’s decision to force religious institutions to provide birth control to their employees; then it was the president coming out (so to speak) in support of gay marriage; and now it’s the administration’s announcement that it will cease deporting young illegal immigrants who were brought to this country by their parents.
To the skeptic, all three decisions will seem politically motivated. But as with the first two, it’s not exactly clear just who the illegal immigration decision will wind up benefitting.
About the only thing that’s clear is that a can of worms has been opened.
Barack Obama as the Colorado Rockies
President Obama’s problems heading into the November election are less rooted in the ongoing economic struggles in the country than in a widespread sense of unmet expectations among those who backed him in 2008, according to a recent focus group conducted by Democratic pollster Peter Hart in Colorado.
Colorado Rockies center fielder Carlos Gonzalez is unable to catch a double by New York Yankees batter Mark Teixeira in the third inning of their MLB interleague baseball game at Yankee Stadium in New York, June 25, 2011. REUTERS/Ray Stubblebine Writes Hart in a memo describing the focus group results that was sent to reporters Thursday night:
“People are disappointed in economic conditions and the amount of debt the President has racked up, but he hasn’t lost these voters because of these problems. They sense that this is all a show. There is no roadmap, no program, and no conviction of where the President wants to lead the country. Participants say that Obama reminds them of their hometown baseball team, the Colorado Rockies (lots of promise but not a pennant).”
Jamie Dimon, Democrat?
In a Capitol Hill hearing Wednesday, Democrats pushed JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon on the bank’s $2 billion trading loss while Republicans courted his opinion on financial regulation.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., arrives to a Senate Banking Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Wednesday, June 13, 2012. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg But the differing treatment Dimon received from the two parties this week is not reflected in Dimon’s own political preferences. Most of his donations, in fact, go to Democrats.
From 1989 to 2009, the banker and his wife gave over half a million dollars to Democrats, according to a Center for Responsive Politics analysis. That’s 12 times what they gave to Republicans during that same time frame.
What is Obama’s best economic message?
Americans express tepid support for President Obama’s economic agenda and little confidence that he has the right priorities when it comes to spurring economic renewal, setting up the challenge as he seeks to re-frame the debate.
So, what should Obama’s economic message be — both in his speech in Ohio today and going forward in the campaign?
President Obama’s mythical black voter problem — in three charts
A new North Carolina poll conducted by the automated pollster (and Democratic affiliated) Public Policy Polling has set the political world on its head — suggested that not only has former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney made up significant ground on President Obama in the swing state but that the incumbent is losing roughly one in every five black voters in the Tarheel State.
Here’s the problem: There’s no evidence — outside of this single PPP poll — that Obama is suffering any significant erosion among African American voters.
The story of Obama’s continued — and sustained — strength in the black community can be told in three charts, all of which examine Washington Post-ABC News polling conducted over the first three-plus years of Obama’s presidency. (HUGE thanks to the Post polling team for building out these charts; do yourself a favor and follow them on Twitter @postpolls.)
Obama’s ‘08 economic advantage disappears
Roughly four in 10 voters assess the economic proposals offered by President Obama and Mitt Romney favorably in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, a sharp contrast to the wide lead the incumbent enjoyed over John McCain on the issue in the 2008 presidential race.
In the latest Post-ABC poll, 43 percent of voters express favorable opinions about Obama’s economic agenda, while 40 percent say the same of Romney.
Compare that relative parity on economic plans to the 20-point edge Obama held over McCain in a 2008 election eve poll, and you begin to grasp the challenge before Obama when it comes to winning the economic argument this fall.
How many fundraisers is too many for President Obama?
President Obama will attend six fundraisers today in Maryland and Pennsylvania, a series of cash collection events that bring his total number of fundraisers held for his reelection bid up to 160, according to figures maintained by CBS News’ Mark Knoller.
That, again according to Knoller, is more than double the 79 events that President George W. Bush had held at this same time in the 2004 presidential race.
(Sidebar: Knoller is a national treasure. If you don’t follow him on Twitter, you should rectify that problem immediately.)
President Barack Obama waves before speaking at the Fox Theater in Redwood City, Calif., Wednesday, May 23, 2012. The president spoke at various fund-raising events in Colorado and California Wednesday. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)Republicans have seized on Obama’s rapid fundraising pace as evidence that he is far more dedicated to raising money and winning reelection than to performing the actual job for which he was elected in 2008.
Why Europe won’t save Obama
President Obama’s goal at last Friday’s press conference, according to those who know him best, was simple: Explain to a confused American public why the struggles in Europe are having ripple effects across the global economy — up to and including the United States.
“One concern is Europe, which faces a threat of renewed recession as countries deal with a financial crisis,” said Obama at the start of his prepared remarks. “Obviously this matters to us because Europe is our largest economic trading partner. If there’s less demand for our products in places like Paris or Madrid it could mean less businesses — or less business for manufacturers in places like Pittsburgh or Milwaukee.”
President Obama tries to change the subject
President Obama’s decision to make remarks — and take questions from reporters — Friday morning on the economy was a seemingly obvious attempt to pivot away from his worst week, politically speaking, in months.
It almost certainly won’t work, however, because Obama offered little new in terms of policy and adopted a largely presidential — rather than a political — approach to the questions reporters posed to him.
President Obama to make 10:15 a.m. statement on economy
At the end of a truly terrible week, President Obama is trying to seize some control over the news with a 10:15 a.m. statement on the economy.
Obama is expected to push Congress to pass his jobs plan, saying it would put construction workers, teachers and police and firefighters back to work.
The plan, which would be paid for with increased taxes on the rich, has long been stalled in Congress. Obama will also discuss the debt crisis in Europe and how it affects the economy at home.
Wisconsin recall: Winners and losers
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) decisive victory against Democrats seeking to recall him on Tuesday amounts to a major moment in national politics due to the massive amounts of national money and attention the race garnered.
Any time there are such high stakes in an election, there are people who win big and people who lose big. And we at the Fix love nothing more than sifting through the results to go beyond the obvious “bests” and “worsts” of the night to find a few winners and losers you might not have thought of.
Ed Rendell, Obama antagonist
In the past few weeks, Ed Rendell has emerged as the leading Democratic antagonist to President Obama.
Consider just a few of the apostasies voiced by the former Pennsylvania governor in that time:
* Rendell called Obama’s attacks on Mitt Romney’s time at Bain Capital “disappointing”, adding: “I think Bain is fair game, because Romney has made it fair game. But I think how you examine it, the tone, what you say, is important as well.”
Obama’s foreign policy image: from dove to tough guy
Former president George W. Bush said during the unveiling of his official portrait Thursday at the White House that President Obama can now look at his picture in times of peril and ask, “What would George do?”
It was a joke.
But when it comes to foreign policy, the image of Obama is starting to look a little like the 43rd president. Namely: a tough guy.
President Obama is joined by former president George W. Bush in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington in this January 16, 2010 file photo. (REUTERS/Larry Downing/Files)
Solyndra, explained
Solyndra is back in the news, with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney making a surprise appearance Thursday at the California headquarters of the failed energy company. Republicans have repeatedly argued that the Obama Administration’s investment in Solyndra is part of a failed energy policy and, worse, shady dealings by the White House.
Republican U.S. presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks at the former Solyndra headquarters and factory in Fremont, California, May 31, 2012. REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach
So, what exactly happened with Solyndra?
Why the first Friday of the month matters so much
Every day in a presidential campaign matters, because there just aren’t that many of them left. (It’s 158 days until the election — but who’s counting?) But some days matter more.
Political strategists — and economic policy wonks — have the first Friday of every month between now and November circled in red pen on their calendars (if those things still exist), because it’s the day that the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the previous month’s jobs report.
Today is one of those days. And the May jobs report, which will be released at around 8:30 a.m. eastern time, is the start of a critical three-month period leading up to the national party conventions that will set the economic terms of the fall campaign.
“So Joe Biden says to Karl Rove...”: A Fix caption contest
One image from today’s unveiling of the official portrait of former President George W. Bush at the White House really caught our eye. It was of Vice President Joe Biden leaning back in his seat to say something to Republican political svengali Karl Rove.
Here’s the photo as captured by Washington Post White House reporter David Nakamura:
While we probably won’t ever know what was said between the two men, we political junkies can imagine. In the comments section below, offer your best caption for the photo above. (Let’s keep it PG-13 if at all possible.)
We’ll sort through them at the end of the day and pick a winner. If that’s you, we’ll ship you an official Fix t-shirt. Yes, an official one.
Caption away!
Oklahoma lawmaker promises to get in ‘a president’s face’
How much do Republicans dislike President Obama? A whole lot. And here’s another sign.
Two recent ads from Oklahoma Rep. John Sullivan (R) promise that the lawmaker will “get in your face if you’re wrong — even a president’s face.” Here’s “Care”:
President Obama vs ‘Uncommitted’: The Kentucky primary explained
President Obama’s inability to break 60 percent of the vote against “uncommitted” in Tuesday’s Kentucky Democratic primary drew national headlines and set off a debate about the role race and culture played in the strong vote against the incumbent.
Now, thanks to the Louisville Courier Journal, we have a visual representation of how the “Obama vs uncommitted” primary played out. (Make sure to read Joseph Gerth’s whole piece breaking down the where and why of the primary vote.)
Why running against the Supreme Court just might work for Obama
Some time between now and July 4, the Supreme Court will hand down two rulings — one on the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law, the other on Arizona’s immigration law — that could have genuine impact on the battle for the White House this fall.
The tea-leave reading of how the Court will rule — and, to be clear, this is guesswork at best — seems to suggest that they may well strike down the health care law and uphold Arizona’s measure, a dual decision that would widely be seen as a victory for conservatives and a defeat for President Obama.
Is the Bain attack working?
President Obama’s campaign is in the midst of an extended attack on Mitt Romney’s time spent at Bain Capital, an effort to define the former Massachusetts governor as out of touch with average Americans.
Ads have been run, conference calls have been held, press releases (and then some more press releases) have been sent — an all-out effort that speaks to how important it is for the Obama campaign to win this fight over who Mitt Romney really is.
Gay marriage? Bullying? Voters don’t care.
The political world has been consumed in recent weeks by President Obama’s decision to come out in support of same-sex marriage and by a Washington Post story detailing allegations of high school bullying by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney .
And what sort of reaction have these two major stories elicited from the voting public? In a word: “Eh”.
Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett satisfied Obama was born in United States
President Obama will be on the ballot in Arizona after all.
Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R), who earlier this month requested more information from Hawaii on President Obama’s birth certificate, has gotten the confirmation he needed. 
U.S. President Barack Obama's birth certificate that was released by the White House in Washington April 27, 2011. (REUTERS/The White House/Handout)
“Late yesterday, our office received the 'verification in-lieu of certified copy' from officials within the Hawaii Department of Health that we requested in March,” Bennett said in a statement released Wednesday afternoon. “They have officially confirmed that the information in the copy of the Certificate of Live Birth for the President matches the original record in their files.”
Kentucky, Arkansas primaries: Is it racism?
That President Obama lost roughly 40 percent of the vote in Democratic primaries in Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia over the last two weeks has drawn massive national headlines.
Those headlines have drawn a collective eyeroll from Democrats — and many others who closely follow national politics — who ascribe the underperformance by the incumbent to a very simple thing: racism.
How Cory Booker won
Newark Mayor Cory Booker clearly misspoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday when he lumped attacks on former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s record at Bain Capital into the same category as attacks on President Obama’s connection to Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
Newark Mayor Cory Booker's right hand is bandaged as he stands in his driveway between a boarded-up 433 Hawthorne Avenue and next his home, left, in Newark, N.J., Friday, April 13, 2012 as he talks about rescuing a neighbor Thursday from fire at the home. (AP Photo/Mel Evans)Booker has spent the last three days kind-of, sort-of walking those comments back, insisting that he never meant to conflate Bain and Wright while holding firm on his condemnation of the negative campaigning in both parties. (Booker called the tone of the campaign “nauseating”.)
Conventional wisdom dictates that Booker’s gaffe hurts him politically. Conventional wisdom could well be wrong.
“While he may take grief in the short run, it will only serve to benefit him in the long run,” argued one senior Democratic party operative granted anonymity to speak candidly about such a politically sensitive topic.
Why the 2012 election will be the closest since Bush vs Gore
The 2012 presidential election is going to be close. Very close. Incredibly close. Like Al-Gore-vs-George-W.-Bush close.
A review of the last year’s worth of national polling conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News makes clear that not only is the electorate almost equally divided between President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney but people are also equally split on which of the two men is better equipped to handle the economy, which, of course, is the only issue that matters to a majority of voters.
David Axelrod scolds Cory Booker on Bain Capital
President Obama’s chief political strategist hammered comments made by Newark Mayor Cory Booker regarding former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s work at Bain Capital as “wrong”, the latest attempt by the White House to get out from under the burgeoning controversy.
“In this particular instance he was just wrong,” Axelrod told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell — speaking about Booker’s defense of private equity firms. “There are specific instances here that speak to an economic theory that isn’t the right economic theory for the country.”
Cory Booker commits the classic Washington gaffe
In Washington, there’s an old cliche: A gaffe is when a politician is accidentally honest.
That’s what happened to Newark (N.J.) Mayor Cory Booker during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. Booker, who is widely regarded as a fast riser in Democratic politics, veered badly off message when he defended Bain Capital — the longtime employer of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — and described the negative tone of the campaign as “nauseating”.
How Mitt Romney might outraise Barack Obama
Political observers have spent the last four years marveling at President Obama’s fundraising might. But now even Democrats are admitting that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — and his allied party and outside groups — may very well outspend the current occupant of the White House between now and the Nov. 6 election.
Obama’s April fundraising haul: $43.6 million
President Obama and the Democrats raised $43.6 million in April as the campaign against former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney ramps up.
That’s a drop from March when Obama and various Democratic committees together raised $53 million, even though the campaign had 169,500 new donors last month. Obama dwarfed Romney in fundraising in March, when the Republican candidate took in only $12.6 million. Romney has yet to release his April numbers.
The average contribution from Obama’ 437,323 April donors was $50.23, and 98 percent of those donations $250 or less.
Obama: ‘I’m going to win’
Updated at 11:40 a.m.
President Obama said in an interview airing Tuesday that he will win reelection this year.
“I’m going to win,” he said in an interview with ABC’s “The View,” which was taped Monday.
Obama acknowledged continued difficulties with the economy present a challenge for his campaign, but also said that the election should be a choice between candidates. He said he hopes American voters will make a decision between his and Mitt Romney’s visions for the country.
“Don’t compare me to the almighty; compare me to the alternative,” Obama said, quoting Vice President Joe Biden.
A gay marriage advocate with ears in the White House
President Obama’s decision to support gay marriage came after years of pressure from some of his most ardent supporters.
One of them is Chad Griffin, the 38-year-old incoming president of Human Rights Campaign, an adovcacy group for gay rights. Griffin is an example of the behind-the-scenes power players who have been prodding the White House on this issue for some time. The California-based political consultant said he has made several appeals to the president in person to come out in support of gay marriage. And as one of the top bundlers for Obama’s campaign, he has been exerting financial pressure as well.
His ties to the White House go deeper than that, however. Griffin’s former business partner, Kristina Schake, is now Michelle Obama’s communications director. His college roommate is White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer. And Griffin and his partner Jerome Fallon were seated at the head table with Obama at the recent state dinner for British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Chad Griffin is a long-time advocate for gay marriage.
(Jeff Chiu - AP)
After Vice President Joe Biden said on “Meet the Press” on Sunday that he was “absolutely comfortable” with gay marriage, it was Griffin who dismissed White House attempts to walk the comment back.
Joe Biden, gay marriage and 2016
Opinion varies about why Vice President Joe Biden seemed to endorsed gay marriage during an appearance last Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press”.
Was this Biden being Biden, a politician with a penchant for speaking off the cuff doing just that? Was it an authorized trial balloon directed by the White House to test reaction to President Obama coming out in favor of gay marriage? Or, most deliciously, was this Biden acting alone — but not by accident — in an attempt to bolster his 2016 prospects?
Obama: Biden ‘a little bit over his skis’ on gay marriage comments
President Obama said in an interview aired Thursday morning that he had planned to come out in favor of gay marriage this year even before Vice President Joe Biden broached the issue on national TV last weekend weekend.
Obama suggested that Biden’s comments hastened his own announcement, but said that it was going to happen in the next few months anyway.
“I had already made a decision that we were going to take this position before the election and before the convention,” Obama said. “He probably got a little bit over his skis, but out of generosity of spirit.”
Why President Obama’s same-sex marriage decision matters less than you think
President Obama’s decision to reverse course and announce his support for same-sex marriage created a media feeding frenzy Wednesday as the press tried to wrap its collective arms around the various aspects of the story.
Judging from all the coverage, it’s easy to assume that the Obama decision on gay marriage could well serve as a pivot point in his reelection bid.
President Obama’s calculated gamble on gay marriage
President Obama’s decision to express support for gay marriage in an interview with ABC’s Robin Roberts is a decision that comes with real political risk.
In truth, Obama’s hand was forced on the issue by comments made by Vice President Joe Biden on NBC’s “Meet the Press”in which he seemed to express support for gay marriage.
(Watch the video: Obama supports gay marriage )
While Biden’s office and the White House insisted there was no space between Biden’s remarks and Obama’s stated position in support of civil unions but not gay marriage, it reeked of bad spin — and everyone (including the White House) sensed it.
Given that tenuous situation and the fact that it was something close to an accepted fact in political circles that Obama, on a personal level, favored allowing gays to marry, it was clear that the President had to say something — and sooner rather than later.
Why felon Keith Judd did so well against Obama in West Virginia
Keith Judd, who is serving a 17 1/2-year prison sentence for extortion at the Federal Correctional Institution in Texarkana, Texas, took 41 percent of the vote in West Virginia’s Democratic primary Tuesday night — 72,000 votes to Obama’s 106,000. He would qualify for convention delegates, if anyone had signed up to be a Judd delegate. (No one did.)
How did Judd get so many votes?
It’s likely not his past careers as a superhero and religious leader. Or his passionate FEC report ramblings. Simply put, West Virginia does not like Obama.
Biden: World thought U.S. was “the problem” on Iran
Joe Biden spars with Mitt Romney campaign on Iran, Eric Cantor distance shimself from Lugar race, Mark Kirk updates us on his recovery and there are scattered reports of bad ballots in North Carolina.
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Obama team struggles on gay marriage questions
The White House struggles on gay marriage, Jeb Bush has endorsed Tommy Thompson, Romney town hall goes off-message and Hillary Clinton expects to see a woman in the White House.
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President Obama’s independent problem is nothing new.
The big news out of the Politico Battleground poll released Monday morning is that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads President Obama among independent voters by double digits. (the actual number is 48 percent to 38 percent.)
But, Obama’s troubles with independents are really nothing new. In fact, in polling conducted by the Washington Post-ABC News, Obama’s job approval rating among independents has been over 50 percent just one time in the last two years — and that was in the immediate aftermath of the death of Osama bin Laden last spring.
Why is President Obama still “evolving” on gay marriage?
On Sunday, Vice President Joe Biden seemed to signal a shift from the Obama Administration in its long-running (and somewhat tortured) approach to gay marriage.
“I am absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women and heterosexual – men and women marrying – are entitled to the same exact rights, all the civil rights, all the civil liberties,” Biden said on “Meet the Press”. “And quite frankly, I don’t see much of a distinction beyond that.”
Obama makes case in major swing state ad ‘Go,’ launches $25 million ad buy
President Obama’s campaign is out with a minute-long ad, “Go,” touting the administration’s record and reminding voters how bad things were in 2008.
The Obama campaign is planning to spend $25 million on ads this month, senior adviser David Axelrod told reporters Monday.
The ad starts with grim footage of the economic meltdown — “all before this president took the oath.”
Over shots of tea party protesters, the narrator says, “Some thought our best days were behind us, but not him. He believed in us.”
Parsing President Obama’s 2012 campaign kickoff speech
President Obama made it official (again) on Saturday: He is running for re-election. No surprises there. Nor is it surprising that Obama chose Virginia and Ohio — two of the swingiest states in the country — to stage his first two 2012 campaign rallies.
President Barack Obama speaks during his campaign rally at the Siegel Center in Richmond, Va., Saturday, May 5, 2012. (AP Photo/Richmond Times-Dispatch, Eva Russo)What was interesting — or at least worthy of note — was what Obama said in his speeches to the crowds in Richmond and Columbus. This was a speech that was very carefully crafted and one that will almost certainly serve as the blueprint for how Obama will seek to frame the general election against former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
This being politics, Obama said less than he meant. But, that’s where we come in. Below are a few of Obama’s best or, at least, most quotable lines and our — slightly longer — translation of the message he was trying to send.
April jobs report: Obama’s time grows short on the economy
The disappointing April jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning not only complicates the Obama Administration’s argument that the President’s policies on the economy are beginning to work but also brings them dangerously close to the point at which even a substantial recovery might not be fully noticed by voters.
For Virginians, Barack Obama fits just right (for now)
President Obama’s current lead over Mitt Romney in a new Washington Post poll in Virginia is due in large part to a belief that the incumbent’s ideology is a better fit for the state than that of the former Massachusetts governor.
A majority of Virginians — 52 percent — say that “Barack Obama’s views on most issues are just about right” as compared to 37 percent who say the same of Romney’s views. Among electorally critical independents, 52 percent say Obama’s views were about right as opposed to just 34 percent who say the same of Romney. Just look at this chart.
‘The life of Julia’ and the new frontiers of presidential politics
On Thursday morning, President Obama’s campaign launched a new interactive infographic — “The life of Julia.”
Her’s how it works:You follow a cartoon woman named Julia from age 3 to age 67. At each step along the way, you learn how she was helped by policies pushed by Obama and how she would be hurt by differing policy prescriptions favored by former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
The 2012 election -- in 4 maps.
Anyone who pays even passing attention to politics knows that the November presidential election will be a referendum on the nation’s economy.
And, anyone who pays even passing attention to Fix — we assume that’s virtually everyone in the country, right? — knows that for the average voter the health of the economy is largely determined by the unemployment rate both nationally and in their particular state.
Given the primacy of the unemployment rate in peoples’ perception of the state of the economy — and, consequently, on their votes — we are forever in search of data to illustrate which way the trend line on the economy is headed.
That’s where Patchwork Nation — an amazing mapping and demographic project run by Fix friend Dante Chinni — comes in. We asked Dante to produce a few maps charting the unemployment rate over time both nationally and in the Rust Belt (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).
Why President Obama shouldn’t run any more positive ads
President Obama’s reelection campaign is out with a new ad in Ohio, Iowa and Virginia today that bashes former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney for shipping jobs overseas and for — you guessed it! — having a Swiss bank account.
The new ad is the third of the Obama reelection effort. He began his advertising campaign in January with a commercial touting the Administration’s successes on energy and ethics while slamming Americans for Prosperity. His second hit Romney for supporting “big oil”.
Why Osama bin Laden is fair game for President Obama
The one-year anniversary of the killing of Osama bin Laden has occasioned a fierce political debate about the appropriateness of President Obama’s reelection campaign touting the death for their partisan benefit.
It shouldn’t. Here’s why.
No matter what President Obama’s reelection campaign says, this election is almost certain to revolve around a simple question for most undecided voters: Did the president make enough right decisions in his first four years in office to deserve as a second term?
Republicans’ electoral map problem — in one chart
In our Monday Fix column, we argued that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney faces a very narrow path to the 270 electoral votes he needs to claim the presidency in November.
What we were most struck by while writing the piece was the fact that it’s been more than two decades since the Republican presidential nominee broke 300 electoral votes. During that same time, Democratic presidential nominees — Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and President Obama in 2008 — have won more than 350 electoral votes.
It’s also a remarkable turnaround from the three successive elections in 1980, 1984 and 1988 in which Republican presidential nominees received more than 400(!) electoral votes.
Here’s a chart we put together detailing the electoral map up and downs for each side in the past three decades:
Nothing in the chart above suggests that Romney can’t win this fall. Rather, it highlights the fact that Romney’s margin for error is both small and smaller than that of President Obama.
President Obama’s White House Correspondents Dinner speech: Controversial or a classic of the genre?
President Obama’s speech at the White House Correspondents Dinner on Saturday night was chockful of laughter-provoking — and occasionally eyebrow raising — material.
He joked about Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sending him drunken texts from Cartajena. He poked fun at former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s wealth. He even kidded about stories that as a child in Indonesia he had eaten dog. (You can watch the full speech here.)
Obama unveils new campaign slogan: ‘Forward’
President Obama’s campaign is out with a Web video that defends his first term on all fronts while unveiling a new slogan: “Forward.”
President Obama and Bill Clinton: BFF?
On Sunday night, President Obama did something that was unimaginable at this time four years ago. He attended a fundraiser featuring former President Bill Clinton held at the Virginia home of longtime Clintonite Terry McAuliffe.
At this time in 2008, the Obamas and the Clintons were barely on speaking terms, engaged in daily rhetorical sniping as they battled for the Democratic presidential nomination.
White House Correspondents Dinner: The night in 61,000 tweets
Some people spend the White House Correspondents Dinner chatting with their friends. Others spend it gawking at celebrities. The Fix spends it tweeting.
Apparently we’re not the only ones. According to the good folks at Twitter, almost 61,000 tweets with the hashtags #whcd or #nerdprom were sent between 6 pm and 11 pm eastern. (Roughly half of those were sent from the Fix.)
The peak of Twitter activity? When comedian Jimmy Kimmel poked fun at the weight of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — right around 10:22 pm. There were 765 tweets per minute at that moment.
Here’s a full chart detailing the Twitter activity from the Nerd Prom. The other major peaks were Kimmel’s opening monologue (701 tweets per minute) and President Obama’s riff on the Republican field (686 tweets per minute.)
White House Correspondents Dinner: President Obama’s speech
The 2012 edition of the White House Correspondents Dinner — aka nerd prom — is in the books.
If you missed President Obama’s speech to the assembled masses — what, you had better things to do than watch cable TV on a Saturday night? — it’s below (and worth watching).
And, if you want a real-time look at nerd prom from The Fix’s iPhone, make sure to check out our live-tweeting of last night’s festivities here.
WHCD 2012: Where Washington and Hollywood meet
Live tweeting the White House Correspondents Dinner!
The Fix is headed to tonight’s White House Correspondent Dinner armed with a tuxedo (tuxedo t-shirt, that is) and an iPhone.
Our goal? To bring the proceedings, which include speeches by President Obama and comedian Jimmy Kimmel, to Fixistas who couldn’t make it to the dinner. (Presumably all Fix readers were invited....)
Below is a Twitter stream of a handful of Washington Post reporters — including yours truly — who will be at the dinner tonight. (You can also just follow The Fix on Twitter and Instagram — cillizzac — if you want updates from us only!)
The dinner gets started at 7:30 pm eastern time. But the gawking at celebrities will start — for us at least — around 6 pm. See you online tonight!
President Obama is cool. Mitt Romney isn’t. (Part 2)
Earlier this week, we wrote a piece making the case that President Obama is cool, that Mitt Romney isn’t and that that reality could actually work in favor of the Republican nominee this fall.
American Crossroads, the leading conservative outside group in this election, seemed to agree with that sentiment — releasing a web video on the subject of Obama’s coolness less than 24 hours after we published our item.
What Joe Biden can do for Barack Obama
Joe Biden is the Rodney Dangerfield of modern American politics.
Republicans mock his tendency toward verbal excess while many Democrats pine for him to be replaced as the vice presidential nominee in 2012 by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. (For the billionth time: That ain’t happening.)
But, to assume Biden is simply a bit player as President Obama ramps up his 2012 re-election bid is to drastically underestimate the role he is, can and almost certainly will play in helping to shape the race.
Why is illegal immigration still an issue?
The “Republican DREAM Act” proposed Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is a challenge to President Obama on immigration policy, but also a challenge to his own party, which has shied away from immigration reform in favor of border security.
There’s good reason for that. Even as illegal immigration has declined, public concern about the issue and desire for increased border security has stayed high.
Boehner: Obama should pay for swing state trip
House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) argued this morning that Obama should reimburse taxpayers for his recent trip to college campuses in North Carolina and Ohio to push for a student loan rate freeze.
“This week the president traveled across the country on the taxpayers’ dime at a cost of $179,000 an hour, insisting that Congress fix a problem that we were already working on,” Boehner said in his weekly news conference. “[H]is campaign ought to be reimbursing the Treasury for the cost of this trip.”
Boehner’s comments are part of a Republican strategy to highlight Obama’s swing state travel.
Barack Obama is cool. Mitt Romney is not. What does it mean for 2012?
Here’s a fundamental fact of the 2012 presidential race: President Obama is cool. Mitt Romney isn’t.
Obama slow jams the news with Jimmy Fallon. He makes three pointers. He sings Al Green in tune.
Romney praises the height of trees. He sings “Who let the dogs out”. He fakes that a New Hampshire waitress grabbed his behind.
Is President Obama getting a free pass from the media? Not really.
One of the most common refrains you hear as a reporter is that the reason a particular politician is doing well is because the media is giving him/her a pass.
That’s especially true when it comes to President Obama who, many conservatives believe, gets glowing coverage from the media — particularly when compared to how political reporters have covered the men and women running to be the Republican nominee. (Heck, the New York Times ombusdman urged the Old Gray Lady to take an “aggressive look” at President Obama on Sunday.)
How much Hispanics matter in 2012 — in one chart
Republicans have a Hispanic problem.
Unless they can find ways to begin convincing the nation’s fastest growing population — Hispanics accounted for half of all the growth of the U.S. population over the last decade — that the GOP is a potential political home for them, they won’t remain a credible national party in 2016, 2020 and beyond.
Ted Nugent looking forward to Secret Service meeting
Ted Nugent is meeting with the Secret Service, Obama is taking a jab at Romney, Gingrich is staying in out of obligation and Santorum is considering an endorsement.
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The GSA and Secret Service scandals: A political problem for President Obama?
It’s been a rough few weeks for the federal government.
First, the lavish spending of the General Services Administration on a wild Las Vegas retreat came to light. Then came the Secret Service scandal where a number of agents advancing the President’s trip to Colombia were caught with prostitutes.
The question that’s largely been left out of the coverage of the twin scandals — in which new details seem to emerge daily if not hourly — is whether they carry any political danger for the man at the head of the federal government: President Obama.
Mitt Romney is the momentum candidate. But why?
It’s official: Mitt Romney is the momentum candidate in the presidential race.
The Gallup daily tracking polling has shown him up three and five points on President Obama over the last two days. A CBS/New York Times survey released this morning showed the race tied at 46 percent. And a Pew Research Center poll pegged Obama’s lead over Romney at four points, down from a 12-point bulge last month.
Obama campaign releases first Spanish-language ads
President Obama’s campaign has released a series of Spanish-language ads aimed at Latino voters.
The ads will air in Colorado, Nevada and Florida, three key swing states with growing Latino populations.
Each ad features a Latino campaign organizer touting the president’s education policies, in particular improvements to the early-education program Head Start and increased funding for Pell Grants, which help poor students attend college.
The incredibly shrinking swing vote
Billions of dollars — literally — will be spent between now and Nov. 6 in hopes of reelecting or defeating President Obama.
Those billions will be directed at a tiny sliver of truly undecided voters, according to new polling data from the Pew Research Center.
Less than one in four registered voters described themselves as swing voters in the Pew poll, well below the 33 percent who said the same in a June 2008 Pew survey and consistent with the 21 percent who said they were truly undecided in June 2004 — the last time an incumbent president sought reelection.
A permanent gender gap problem for Republicans?
New poll data from the Pew Research Center suggests that not only does President Obama enjoy a clear edge over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among women but that younger women favor the incumbent overwhelmingly, a data point that suggests a potential long term problem for the GOP.
Obama leads Romney among all women by a 53 percent to 40 percent margin, which, interestingly, is down from the 20 point edge that he enjoyed in a March Pew poll.
Why the presidential race is going to be closer than you think
The dominant narrative since the beginning of 2012 has been that President Obama has regained his footing after a rocky 2011 and is trending upward. Ask 10 political types who will win in November, and eight of them (or so) will say Obama.
But, like all conventional wisdom, it’s only true until it changes. And, on Monday, a new poll came out that provided at least a hint that the CW might be in for a shift.
President Obama’s March fundraising haul: $53 million
President Obama raised $53 million last month for his reelection, a substantial increase from the month before.
In February, Obama raised $45 million from 348,000 donors. This month he upped his total by $8 million, and increased his donor pool to 567,000.
Campaign manager Jim Messina announced the total — raised in conjunction with the Democratic National Committee and two joint committees, the Obama Victory Fund and the Swing State Victory Fund — in a Web video that focused on small donors.
“People are building this organization five and 10 bucks at a time to take on Mitt Romney,” Messina said.
President Obama’s (very) cautious economic optimism
Two of President Obama’s key surrogates took to the weekend political chat circuit to spread the message that the administration’s economic policies were working — kind of, sort of.
Senior strategist David Axelrod in an interview with “Fox News Sunday” said that “The choice in this election is between economy that produces a growing middle class and that gives people a chance to get ahead and their kids a chance to get ahead, and an economy that continues down the road we are on, where a fewer and fewer number of people do very well, and everybody else is running faster and faster just to keep pace.”
Obama’s taxes all about Mitt Romney
President Obama releases his taxes every year. But this time they came with a big side of politics.
The president’s campaign hopes to paint former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as an out-of-touch millionaire with no concern for the middle-class. And the tax releases are one of the first big salvos in that fight. 
President Barack Obama speaks at the White House Forum on Women and the Economy, Friday, April 6, 2012, in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the White House complex in Washington.
(Carolyn Kaster - AP)
Obama’s returns don’t exactly depict an everyman: together with Michelle Obama, he reported making $789,674 in the past year. About half of that came from book sales. Their effective tax rate, 20.5 percent, is lower than that of many Americans with lower incomes (for example, Vice President Joe Biden).
If President Obama were a car, what kind of car would he be?
“If President Obama was a car, what kind of car would he be and why?”
That’s the question Resurgent Republic, a Republican-led polling conglomerate, asked a group of independents in Colorado and Virginia who had voted for the president in 2008.
The answers are incredibly illuminating, providing a window into how a critical swing bloc of the electorate thinks about the current occupant of the White House.
How YouTube and Twitter are hurting Mitt Romney
It’s a strategy as old as American politics: You run toward the party base — on the left or right — in the primary and then move to the ideological middle once you become your party’s standard-bearer.
But, the explosion of video-sharing sites like YouTube and microblogging technology like Twitter badly complicate this age-old formula.
The single scariest number for President Obama in the Washington Post-ABC poll
There’s one number in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll that should send a chill up the collective spine of President Obama and his reelection team. That number? 76.
Seventy six percent of respondents said that the economy is “still in recession” while just 21 percent said the recession is over, according to the Post-ABC poll. While 85 percent of Republicans feel the economy is still in recession so do 68 percent of Democrats and 77 percent of independents.
Mitt Romney 2012 = John Kerry 2004?
Political reporters — all of whom are history nerds at heart — spend countless hours trying to figure out which past election the current elections most reminds them of.
It’s part parlor game — you usually win when you compare the current election to the most obscure election of the past possible (this reminds me of the 1876 election between Samuel Tilden and Rutherford B. Hayes) — and part useful political analysis. While no two elections are ever exactly the same, there are elections whose dynamics clearly resemble one another and where studying what happened can help you understand what will happen.
Crossroads GPS attacks Obama in six swing states
A Republican-affiliated outside group is making a major ad buy to attack President Obama in six swing states.
In an ad called “Too Much,” Crossroads GPS attacks the administration over high gas prices. There’s $1.7 million behind the ad, which is airing in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.
Buffett Rule no silver bullet
Clearly, Democrats think the “Buffett Rule” is very good politics.
President Obama is pitching it in Boca Raton, Fla., today — his 20th speech on the subject since the State of the Union, according to CBS. Yesterday, his campaign held a conference call about it. Vice President Biden will talk about it Thursday in New Hampshire. Senate Democrats have pledged to push it all year long.
But a new survey from a centrist Democratic group suggests that the proposal, which would ensure that taxpayers who make over $1 million pay at least a 30 percent rate on all their income, might not be campaign magic.
Barack Obama’s empathy edge
Presidential elections are rarely won and lost on policy. Voters instead tend to choose the person they most want to be president based on who they like. And that feeling is heavily influenced by which of the candidates they believe best understands their hopes and dreams.
Call it the empathy factor. And it matters. A lot.
Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. Now what?
One fight for former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is over. He will be the Republican presidential nominee this fall.
But, now a bigger challenge awaits. A slew of recent polling shows him running well behind President Obama and with some of the highest unfavorable ratings of any presidential nominee at this time in the race.
What Obama meant by ‘social Darwinism’
In his speech to the American Society of Newspaper Editors Tuesday, President Obama called the budget proposed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) “thinly veiled social Darwinism.”
What does that mean?
Obama takes on Romney over “Big Oil” in new ad
President Obama is taking on former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by name in a new campaign ad, the first time he has done so in the 2012 race and the latest sign that the general election has now begun in earnest.
The new ad, which begins airing tonight in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia, seeks to link Romney to major oil companies.
Mitt Romney’s women problem
The protracted GOP presidential primary process has badly damaged former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney as he begins to turn his attention to the fall general election fight against President Obama, according to a new poll conducted in 12 swing states by Gallup and USA Today .
In the 12 states — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — included in the Gallup/USA Today survey, Obama leads Romney 51 percent to 42 percent.
More good news on unemployment front for President Obama
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released detailed information about the unemployment rate in the states earlier today, and the news is quite good for President Obama.
Of the 15 states expected to be seriously contested by the two parties this fall, nine have an unemployment rate below the 8.3 percent national rate for the month of February. (For a full list of the swing states and their unemployment rates, scroll to the bottom of this post.)
Why Obama gets less blame than Bush for high gas prices
President Obama’s call to end subsidies for oil companies is likely doomed in Congress, and nearly two-thirds of Americans say they disapprove of the way he’s handling high gas prices.
Yet there’s one bright spot for the White House. Voters are far less likely to blame Obama for skyrocketing fuel costs than they were President Bush six years ago.
Obamacare’s publicity problem
Ever since debate over the health-care law began, Democrats have said that Americans would like the Affordable Care Act better the more they know about it.
But as the Supreme Court decides the fate of “Obamacare,” the latest polling from the Kaiser Family Foundation suggests that the law’s supporters are still losing the information battle.
The law’s popular provisions are still far less well-known than the unpopular individual mandate.
Poll: President Obama leads in swing states
President Obama is pulling away from his Republican rivals in key swing states, a new Quinnipiac poll finds.
* In Florida, Obama leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 49 percent to 42 percent and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum 50 to 37 percent.
* In Ohio, Obama leads Romney 47 percent to 41 percent and Santorum 47 to 40 percent.
The next 5 things that will happen in the presidential race
But, with every political death comes political birth — circle of life! — and the end of the primary signals the official start of the general election.
Here are five things to watch for over the next few weeks as the candidates and the political world transitions from the intrasquad scrimmage to the real thing.
An economic chart that will make the White House smile
The politics of the economy are 95 perception, five percent reality. (Maybe it’s 90/10 but we aren’t willing to go any lower than that.)
Most people are detached from the nitty-gritty details of economic strength or weakness — U6 for the win! — and tend to judge the health of the economy on how they it affects their own lives.
Can the White House win on health care?
The assumption in the professional political world has long been that, if President Obama wants to win a second term in November, he should talk as little as possible about the health care bill that he signed into law two years ago.
Polling suggested — and continues to suggest — that the American public is unfavorably inclined to the law; in a Washington Post-ABC survey earlier this month, 41 percent supported the law while 52 percent opposed it
Why Obama’s hot mike moment stings
President Obama was caught on a hot mike in South Korea suggesting to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that he would have “more flexibility” in missile defense negotiations after he wins reelection.
“On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this can be solved, but it’s important for him to give me space,” Obama said of incoming Russian President Vladimir Putin, who will replace Medvedev in May. “This is my last election. After my election, I have more flexibility.”
Click to watch the videoThis statement is 100 percent true.
“The fact is that we’re in the middle of a presidential campaign,” said former Maine senator and Defense Secretary Bill Cohen in an interview on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” today. “Any issue of great substance is not going to be decided or debated.”
Unfortunately for Obama, it’s also a pretty big gift for Republicans, who were already set to rehash Obama’s first-term health care agenda this week and plan to argue that the president would do bigger (read: more liberal) things as a lame duck president.
President Obama embraces ‘Obamacare’ label. But why?
Even as the Supreme Court begins oral arguments over the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law today, the incumbent and his reelection team have made a critical strategic decision to embrace the term “Obamacare.”
“You want to call it Obamacare — that’s okay, because I do care,” Obama said at a fundraiser in Atlanta late last week. Then on Friday, the White House urged supporters of the law to tweet why they backed it with the hashtag “#ilikeobamacare.” And on Sunday, White House senior adviser David Plouffe threw down the political gauntlet on the term; “I’m convinced at the end of the decade, the Republicans are going to regret turning this [into] ‘Obamacare,’” Plouffe said on “Fox News Sunday.”
Jon Huntsman discussed World Bank post with Harry Reid
Former Utah governor Jon Huntsman met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and discussed the possibility of his being named the head of the World Bank, according to multiple sources familiar with the conversation.
Republican presidential candidate and former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman departs the Huckabee Forum 2, a televised event, in Charleston, South Carolina, in this January 14, 2012 file photo. REUTERS/Jason Reed/FilesWhether Huntsman urged Reid to push for his appointment or dismissed the idea is a matter of considerable disagreement, however.
President Obama on Trayvon Martin: The power of the personal
President Obama’s decision to comment publicly on the death of Florida teenager Trayvon Martin isn’t terribly surprising. After all, the incident has become a massive national story in the last week.
But, that Obama chose to speak in decidedly personal terms about Martin is surprising — and politically powerful.
Kirsten Gillibrand: I’ll ask Hillary Clinton to run again
New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) plans to ask Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to run for president again.
“I'm going to be one of the first to ask Hillary to run in 2016,” the woman who replaced Clinton in the Senate told BuzzFeed. "I think she would be incredibly well-poised to be our next Democratic president.”
Paul Ryan’s budget is bad politics. Just ask Republicans.
To much fanfare, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan will unveil his 2012 budget plan in Washington today.
The debut of the House Budget Committee chairman’s vision for what conservative governance could and should look like might win him kudos from the conservative policy class, but it elicits only groans from GOP political professionals.
Why President Obama doesn’t talk about health care — in a single chart
The fight over President Obama’s health care bill is set to heat up (again) in the next week as the Supreme Court begins oral arguments on the constitutionality of the law.
But, a look at polling on the issue suggests that it’s very unlikely that whatever the Court decides will have much impact on how the law is viewed by the American public.
Obama may have a turnout problem, too
Much has been written about how turnout in Republican presidential contests has been down from four years ago, but what about Democrats?
President Obama (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
A review of the states that have also held Democratic contests this year shows turnout is down sharply from the last time a Democratic president was running largely unopposed for renomination — 1996.
Democratic turnout is down significantly in five of eight states that held similar contests in 1996 and 2012 (and where data are available), and six of eight overall, compared to Bill Clinton’s 1996 reelection campaign.
Are gas prices the 2012 sleeper issue?
It’s the gas prices, stupid.
Since the 2012 election began — and, in truth, long before that — the political smart set has assumed that this election would be determined by what the unemployment rate in the country is on Labor Day. History — and exit polling from early voting states — tells us that when the economy is sputtering, that’s all anyone cares about.
More good news for Obama in February jobs report
Friday’s jobs report continued a trend of good news for the president, with 227,000 new jobs created in February.
The unemployment rate stayed at 8.3 percent, because more people reentered the work force. Republicans are focusing on that number. But overall, the report contains plenty of good news, continuing a positive trend for the White House.
Despite two good months, Obama’s approval hasn’t budged
The past two months have been unquestionably good to President Obama’s political prospects this November. Let’s review:
* The economy started to shows signs of recovery.
* Republicans got mired in a debate for contraception, with conservative talk radio host Rush Limbaugh unhelpfully inserting himself and, in the process, pouring lighter fluid on the controversy.
Mitt Romney’s muddled march to the GOP nomination
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney will almost certainly be the Republican presidential nominee when the party gathers in Tampa, Fla., to pick its standard-bearer this summer.
His path to Tampa in the aftermath of Super Tuesday, however, seems virtually certain to be marked not by a triumphant coronation but rather by a decidedly unglamorous process of delegate accumulation that will almost certainly force him to lose a series of battles in order to ultimately win the nomination war.
Obama campaign releasing 17-minute documentary: Trailer out
This post has been updated.
Campaign officials for President Obama’s reelection race announced Wednesday that they are planning to release a 17-minute documentary about his first term in office next week.
The movie itself will be screened at events around the country. A trailer released Thursday morning begins with narrator Tom Hanks asking: “How do we understand this president and his time in office?” Do we look at the day’s headlines, or do we remember what we as a country have been through?”
David Axelrod: Mitt Romney can’t stand up to Rush Limbaugh
The top strategists for President Obama’s reelection campaign argued Wednesday morning that, despite his victories in 6 out of the 10 Super Tuesday states, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is in serious trouble.
Chief strategist David Axelrod cast Romney’s failure to condemn conservative talk radio show host Rush Limbaugh for calling a Georgetown law student a “slut” (among other things) as an example of the Republican candidate’s movement rightward.
Obama press conference: Above all, do no (message) harm
President Obama had a simple goal in his first press conference in more than five months: Don’t step on his own message(s).
It was clear from the get-go that Obama wanted to accomplish two things with the press conference: First, introduce a series of new housing measures designed to address the foreclosure crisis and second, hammer away at the Republican presidential candidates for their “casual” (his word) approach to the use of military force.
Why President Obama sat down with Bill Simmons
A president’s time is valuable. He is constantly being pulled in five directions at once — trying to please an unending line of policy and political needs while also attempting to find time for a personal life.
And so, any time President Obama spends a half-hour sitting down with someone, you can be sure there are reasons. Particularly when that someone is a sports journalist like Bill Simmons with whom the President chatted — at length — on Wednesday. (You can read a transcript of the conversation here; you can also download the Simmons’ podcast to get the audio of the interview.)
Koch brothers group: We’re Obama’s bogeyman
The Koch brothers and their conservative advocacy group, Americans for Prosperity, say the Obama administration is using them as a bogeyman for the 2012 election.
“The Obama administration always seeks a villain to explain away the disastrous failure of their big government economic policies,” AFP president Tim Phillips said in response to a prolonged back-and-forth between the Kochs and Obama’s team. “The President himself attacked Americans for Prosperity by name in 2010 on almost two dozen occasions, blaming AFP for his troubles. And now in 2012, his campaign is already attacking AFP again.”
President Obama hits campaign speed in UAW speech
In the swirl of news coverage focused on the Republican presidential primaries in Michigan and Arizona today, it’s easy to miss the speech that President Obama delivered to a group of United Auto Workers in D.C. today.
But, it was a speech not to be missed — the closest thing we have seen to Obama running at full campaign speed we have seen yet in the 2012 race.
Contraception issue fought to a draw
The Obama administration’s decision on Catholic institutions and contraception may have rekindled the social issue debate in American politics — particularly in the GOP primary.
But polling suggests the two sides have essentially fought to a draw.
While polling released before the issue became so hot-button showed a majority of Americans supported requiring all employers to require contraception coverage, a new poll from the Pew Research Center suggests that Americans are much more evenly split when it comes to religious institutions.
Furthermore, new Gallup poll previewed by The Post’s Greg Sargent shows President Obama’s numbers among Catholics remain basically unchanged.
Why Obama’s budget is smart politics
President Obama released a $3.8 trillion budget this morning that includes tax increases, continued infrastructure spending aimed at getting the country out of the economic crisis, and less debt reduction than Obama had previously promised.
And Republicans are pouncing, calling it an irresponsible budget-buster.
That argument was a winner in the 2010 election; today, though, Obama’s budget is a smart political document — at least when it comes to his 2012 reelection campaign.
The White House’s convenient contraception controversy
The White House’s decision to force Catholic hospitals to dispense emergency contraception was a hot topic at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Thursday.
And that’s probably AOK with the Obama campaign.
Republican presidential candidate and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum speaks at Oral Roberts University on Thursday in Tulsa, Okla. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
For a White House that has often been accused of trying to undermine Mitt Romney in the Republican presidential race, the contraception debate is perhaps its happiest accident in that quest.
After all, while the issue hasn’t exactly been fun to deal with for the White House, what better way to help a social conservative like Rick Santorum in his quest to bring down Romney?
The culture war is back
One unintended consequence of the improving economy: The culture war is back.
Last night, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum proved that social issues can still pack a punch.
For months, the Republican presidential candidates have hammered away on the economy — and only the economy — as they crisscrossed the campaign trail. But over the past few days, longtime social issues -- contraception, abortion and gay marriage -- have taken the stage in the campaign.
Clint Eastwood weighs in on Chrysler ad
Clint Eastwood responded Monday night to the debate over whether response his Super Bowl ad for Chrysler was an implicit endorsement of President Obama.
In the ad, Eastwood declares that it is “halftime in America” and that “Motor City is fighting again.”
Some Republicans. criticized the ad for what they saw as political message; some Democrats praised it for the same reason, arguing it reinforces Obama’s defense of the auto industry bailout.
Eastwood says they’re both wrong.
“I just want to say that the spin stops with you guys, and there is no spin in that ad. On this I am certain,” Eastwood told Fox News, in a statement read on-air by Bill O’Reilly. “I am certainly not politically affiliated with Mr. Obama. It was meant to be a message about job growth and the spirit of America. I think all politicians will agree with it. I thought the spirit was OK.”
He added, “If Obama or any other politician wants to run with the spirit of that ad, go for it.”
Karl Rove ‘offended’ by Clint Eastwood’s Chrysler ad
A Chrysler ad aired during the Super Bowl Sunday night has inspired ire among some Republicans and admiration among some Democrats — with both sides seeing a political message that boosts President Obama.
In an ad touting the resurgence of the American auto industry, Clint Eastwood declared that it’s “halftime in America and our second half’s about to begin,” which could be interpreted as a reference to Obama’s second term.
Marco Rubio takes on Obama over contraceptive rule
Marco Rubio has said he’s not interested in being vice president. Repeatedly.
But the Florida Republican senator has thrust himself into the middle of a high-profile, hot-button controversy — a move that will likely spark more talk of his future plans.
Rubio has been positioning himself over the past week as the front person in a fight with President Obama over contraceptive coverage.
A message for Obama in Komen decision?
(Jewel Samad - AFP/Getty Images)
On Friday morning, the Susan B. Komen Foundation backed down from its decision to pull grants from Planned Parenthood.
More than 10,000 people donated to the family planning group in some way, according to President Cecile Richards. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg pledged a $250,000 matching gift to the group.
While the foundation gave itself room to reject future grant applications from Planned Parenthood, the decision is a clear sign that outrage from pro-choice supporters left Komen spooked.
Should Obama be spooked too?
Republicans on jobs report: We can do better
“We can do better.”
That was House Speaker John Boehner’s repeated reaction to Friday’s jobs report, which showed an encouraging surge in hiring last month.
At a press conference with Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), Boehner argued that even these positive numbers would be improved if the president encouraged Senate Democrats to “get off their rear ends” and pass House Republicans’ jobs proposals.
To completely ignore the positive numbers would make Republicans seem oblivious; they instead must argue that they could improve them.
Obama as most polarizing president: A rebuttal
Our post on Gallup’s finding that the first three years of President Obama’s time of office were the most politically polarizing — in terms of the gap between how Democrats and Republican viewed him — of any first three years of a president’s tenure has drawn lots (and lots) of comments.
Fix friend Jim Manley, a longtime aide to Democratic Sens. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) and Harry Reid (Nev.), was particularly exercised about the post. We offered him the chance to respond — and he did. Manley’s comments are unedited. (We added a few hyperlinks to allow Fix readers to see some of the articles to which he is pointing.)
Obama: The most polarizing president. Ever.
President Obama ran — and won — in 2008 on the idea of uniting the country. But each of his first three years in office has marked historic highs in political polarization, with Democrats largely approving of him and Republicans deeply disapproving.
President Obama’s State of the Unions — in one chart
Wondering how President’s Obama 2012 State of the Union stacks up with his three previous speeches? (Two — 2010 and 2011 — were formally labeled State of the Unions — while the 2009 speech was simply an address to a joint session of Congress.) Us too.
The graphics wizards at the Washington Post — Wilson Andrews, we are looking at you — put together the chart below that compares all four of Obama’s speeches in terms of how much time he spent on a variety of major issues.
Obama’s State of the Union speech: Confrontation wrapped in Kumbaya
At first listen, President Obama’s State of the Union address had all the hallmarks of the sort of bipartisan, let’s-do-the-right-thing-for-America tone that characterized his 2008 presidential campaign.
The State of the Union: A Fix live chat
President Obama will deliver his third State of the Union address tonight at 9 p.m. tonight. And the Fix will be there documenting every word!
Tune in around 8:45 p.m. for the kickoff of our Fix live chat. We’ll answer questions, provide instant analysis and, occasionally, engage in playful banter. (No promises on that last one.)
Join us! It’s like “Mystery Science Theater 3000” — but for politics.
State of the Union: What to watch for
President Obama will deliver his third State of the Union address tonight at 9 p.m., a speech that will set the tone for the Congressional session and presidential campaign to come.
The reality of election-year politics are such that the speech will almost certainly be viewed far more through a political lens than a policy one. (Very, very little tends to get done legislatively in a presidential year as both parties position for the November vote.)
The most memorable State of the Union moments
The State of the Union is tonight (of course). Over the past 222 years of speeches, there have been lots of great moments. Here are the most memorable ones captured on video.
Obama’s memos in the New Yorker: The highlights
In this week’s New Yorker, Ryan Lizza delves into the decisions made by President Obama over the last three years, using previously-unreleased White House memos.
The piece shows Obama’s increasing willingness to listen to political advisers’ opinions on policy as his own popularity declined, and his attempts to compromise with Congress, business interests and members of his own administration in passing major legislation.
Here are some of the highlights:
Obama’s ads: Too soon? Too positive?
The decision by President Obama’s campaign to launch ads in six swing states prior to next week’s State of the Union speech and before Republicans have selected the man who will challenge the incumbent president appears to be a mark of the aggressive approach the president’s team will take to his re-election race.
Why the Keystone pipeline decision (probably) won’t matter in 2012
The Obama Administration’s decision to reject a Canadian firm’s plan to build a massive oil pipeline — known as the Keystone XL — that would cut a swath through the country’s heartland is being praised by the environmental community and derided by Republicans.
Judging from the reaction in the immediate aftermath of the decision, you might assume that the Keystone pipeline will mark a seminal moment in President Obama’s 2012 re-election race.
Kent Conrad will serve out term, denies interest in OMB job
Retiring Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) will serve out his term and won’t leave his seat early to become director of the Office of Management and Budget, an aide tells the The Fix.
Conrad has been suggested by some as a potential replacement for recently departed OMB director Jack Lew, who has been named the next White House chief of staff, and Conrad’s staff did nothing to douse the rumors late last week, neither confirming nor denying his interest in the position in an interview with the Bismarck Tribune.
Mitt Romney runs strongest against President Obama in new WaPo/ABC poll
Mitt Romney is in a statistical dead heat in a general election matchup with President Obama in a new Washington Post- ABC News poll, a finding sure to bolster the former Massachusetts governor’s argument that he is the most electable candidate in the GOP field.
Romney takes 48 percent to Obama’s 46 percent in the survey, by far the best that any of the remaining GOP candidates perform against the incumbent. Obama leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 52 percent to 40 percent, holds a 49 percent to 42 percent edge over Texas Rep. Ron Paul and enjoys a 52 percent to 41 percent margin over former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum.
What Bill Daley taught the White House
White House chief of staff Bill Daley’s abrupt decision to resign his office caught official Washington by surprise as it came just a year after he was named to the job.
Obama praised Daley in announcing his departure, casting him as someone willing to make tough decision on the fly. “Chicago is only a phone call away,” Obama said, adding that he would continue to seek Daley’s counsel in the coming months. (And Daley is expected to serve as a co-chairman of Obama’s re-election campaign.)
Bill Daley to serve as co-chair of Obama re-election campaign
Outgoing White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley will serve as a co-chairman of President Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, campaign officials confirmed.
“Bill will serve as one of the co-chairs for the campaign — we will be announcing the others in the coming weeks,” said one campaign official. “He’s got a ton of political experience, knowledge and contacts, and we look forward to leveraging those assets and working closely together to reelect the President this year.”
Daley, a former Commerce secretary in the Clinton Administration, held the chief of staff post for about a year. He is being replaced in the White House by Budget Director Jacob Lew.
He chaired former vice president Al Gore’s 2000 election campaign through the Florida recount.
President Obama’s middle-class momentum
President Obama’s resurgence in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll — his 49 percent job approval rating is as high as its been since May — is built in no small part on a growing sentiment in the electorate that he is fighting for the middle class.
Asked who they trust more to protect the middle class, 50 percent of respondents chose Obama while just 35 percent named “Republicans in Congress”.
Press release hoax claims SEIU has withdrawn Obama endorsement
In the first big prank of the election cycle, a fake press release circulated late Tuesday night led some reporters to believe that the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) had voted to withdraw its endorsement of President Obama in 2012.
SEIU International President Mary Kay Henry was quoted in the press release as saying, “Our members gave $60.7 million dollars to the Obama campaign in 2008 and fought hard for his election because we were promised change. We’re still waiting.”
President Obama channels Elizabeth Warren in Kansas speech
In a nearly hour-long speech that had a distinctly political feel to it, President Obama borrowed rhetorically from Massachusetts Senate candidate — and liberal heroine — Elizabeth Warren to make his case on the economy in Kansas today.
Warren, who helped Obama create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, drew national headlines earlier this fall when she insisted that “there is nobody in this country who got rich on his own” as a way to rebut charges that Democrats were engaging in class warfare (The video of Warren’s remarks has been viewed more than 807,000 on You Tube.)
The politics of the unemployment rate — in two charts!
Late last week, we published a chart detailing the unemployment trend line since President Obama took office.
The chart above may well represent the best chance President Obama has at a second term. We’ve long maintained that a president’s stewardship of the economy — particularly in tough times — is judged more by the direction in which the unemployment rate is headed than what the actual number is in the runup to an election.
The politics of the unemployment rate — in one chart!
We’ve long argued that the politics of the economy — for most voters at least — can be boiled down to a single number: the monthly unemployment rate.
Yes, economists will roll their eyes at this too-simple calculation — nerds! — that misses the real underpinnings of the relative strength (or weakness) of the American financial system.
Is Obama’s Truman-esque approach working?
It’s been a few months now since President Obama started talking tougher with Republicans in Congress.
In a brief press statement Monday, President Obama pushed Congress to find a way to come together for a solution to the growing deficit, adding that middle class Americans can't afford the tax increases that would go into effect next year.
And in the aftermath of the debt-reduction “supercommittee” and its failure to come to an agreement on Monday, it’s worth asking the questions: is this new, Truman-esque tactic actually working?
In policy terms: not yet. And politically, it’s not looking great either.
The Obama base problem myth
There’s no more persistent storyline in Democratic politics these days than the one that goes something like this: Liberals, the foundation of President Obama’s 2008 victory, have grown increasingly disenchanted with him over the intervening years and might not be there for him in 2012.
In a New York magazine profile of Arianna Huffington — founder of the Huffington Post and a leading voice of the liberal left —that was posted earlier today, Huffington said that she might not even vote for Obama in 2012; “Trust me, I realize how hard it is to change the system, but Obama has demonstrated only the fierce urgency of sometime later, and at the same time the middle class is under assault,” she said.
Barack Obama, the blurry president
When Barack Obama swept to the presidency in 2008, he was whatever you wanted him to be.
Democrats saw him as the next great liberal hero. Independents regarded him as the man who could bring comity back to Washington. And many Republicans saw him a historical figure of major proportions.
Obama’s twin slogans of “hope” and “change” allowed partisans of varying stripes to convince themselves that he was the person they — and the country — had long been waiting for.
President Obama and the old college try
It’s a near-certainty that the economy — measured in political terms by the unemployment rate — won’t have recovered in any meaningful way by November 2012.
That reality means that for President Obama to win a second term next year, he must convince voters that he is doing everything he can to turn things around — whether or not his actions are working.
Why Barack Obama isn’t Harry Truman
Stop us if you’ve heard this one: An unpopular Democratic president facing tough economic times overcomes those difficulties to win reelection by pinning the nation’s problems on an obstinate Republican-led Congress.
It’s what President Obama is trying to do these days, and in that way, many see a pretty strong parallel between his 2012 reelection campaign and Harry Truman’s 1948 reelection bid.
Obama and the politics of the housing foreclosure crisis
President Obama is in Nevada today touting the federal government’s new program to ward off the foreclosure crisis. And there’s a lot at stake — mostly because of the states that have been hit the hardest by the crisis.
Renzo Salazar, from Real Signs of Ace Post Holding Inc., places a bank owned sign on top of a for sale sign in front of a foreclosed home on Oct. 13, 2011 in Miami, Florida.
(Joe Raedle - GETTY IMAGES)
The two states with the highest foreclosure rates — Nevada and Florida — are also two of the bigger swing state prizes on the 2012 presidential map. And other states that rank in the top ten in terms of home foreclosures — including Arizona, Colorado, Michigan and Ohio — are also likely to be a major part of Obama’s electoral math. (For more on where foreclosures are concentrated, see this great heat map.)
The politics of President Obama’s Iraq withdrawal decision
President Obama’s lunchtime announcement that all American troops will be out of Iraq by year’s end will produce a series of political reverberations — some of which we know and some that, quite frankly, we don’t.
Here’s our look at the knowns and unknowns from Obama’s announcement today.
KNOWNS
* Promises made, promises kept: Over the past six weeks (or so), Obama’s message to the Democratic base has been clear: “I said I would do things when I ran for office and I have accomplished them.” (We are paraphrasing.) From health care to equal pay for women to the killing of Osama bin Laden, the president has emphasized that the promises he made in 2008 he has largely kept in his first term in office.
DNC spends big money pitching Obama’s jobs plan
The Democratic National Committee is spending very heavily to promote President Obama’s jobs plan, dropping nearly $8 million on ads in September.
A Federal Election Commission Report filed over the weekend shows the DNC raised $4 million in September, received a $10 million transfer from money that Obama raised and spent more than that total combined -- $16.5 million.
Of that $16.5 million, nearly half went towards advertising expenses – a huge off-year ad buy for a national party committee.
Moammar Gaddafi, President Obama and the 2012 election
The death of deposed Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi will be touted by Democrats as another foreign policy success story for President Obama but seems unlikely to seriously affect his political fortunes heading into a 2012 campaign still laser-focused on the struggling U.S. economy.
Reports of Gaddafi’s passing come just days after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Libya and expressed hope that he would be either captured or killed. It’s been nearly eight months since President Obama authorized military intervention in Libya, an involvement that led to Gaddafi’s removal from power.
New poll: Democrats losing enthusiasm in presidential campaign
As the 2012 election draws closer, Democrats are getting less — not more — enthusiastic about the prospect of voting for president.
In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll just more than four in 10 (42 percent) Democrats said they were either “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about the 2012 vote.
What John Edwards can teach Barack Obama
John Edwards is persona non grata in the Democratic Party these days. And for good reason.
The former North Carolina senator, two-time presidential candidate and 2004 vice presidential nominee wrote his own political obituary with his marital infidelities and an ongoing investigation into campaign finance irregularities during his 2008 campaign.
The fallacy of generic presidential ballots
The headline writes itself: “Obama losing to a ‘generic’ Republican candidate in 2012 matchup!”.
But while new numbers out of Gallup do show the “Republican party’s candidate for president” taking 46 percent to President Obama’s 38 percent in a general election face-off, drawing any sort of conclusions about the incumbent’s relative vulnerability off of that data point is a major mistake.
Obama’s money: How big an advantage is it?
In his first six months of active fundraising, President Obama has raked in $90 million for his 2012 re-election campaign not to mention an additional $65 million for the Democratic National Committee.
While not all of the Republican presidential candidates have filed their fundraising reports for the third quarter, it’s a certainty that Obama’s $43 million haul will be more than the combined total for all of them over the past three months. (Texas Gov. Rick Perry is expected to lead the Republican field with $17 million raised between July 1 and Sept. 30.)
Democrats thwart Obama’s bipartisan goals again
It’s become a familiar refrain in Washington by now; President Obama pushes for Republicans to support one of his big initiatives, only to see members of his own party vote against him.
In this April 27, 2010 file photo, Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., questions Goldman Sachs chairman and chief executive officer Lloyd Blankfein before the Senate Subcommittee on Investigations on Capitol Hill in Washington.(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)
(Charles Dharapak - AP)
There was the economic stimulus package, the health care bill, the cap-and-trade energy bill – and now Obama’s jobs bill, which two politically vulnerable Senate Democrats voted against Wednesday.
Obama raises $ 70 million for campaign, DNC
President Barack Obama collected $43 million for his 2012 re-election campaign and helped raise an additional $27 million for the Democratic National Committee over the past three months, according to an email sent to supporters by campaign manager Jim Messina this morning.
“If I could sum up this last quarter in a few words: You came through,” wrote Messina. He added that more than 600,000 people had donated to the campaign over the between July 1 and Sept. 30 and that 98 percent of the contributions were $250 or less.
Obama the loner
The Post’s Scott Wilson penned a provocative piece over the weekend that cast President Obama’s current political problems through the lens of his loner tendencies.
Wrote Wilson:
This president endures with little joy the small talk and back-slapping of retail politics, rarely spends more than a few minutes on a rope line, refuses to coddle even his biggest donors. His relationship with Democrats on Capitol Hill is frosty, to be generous. Personal lobbying on behalf of legislation? He prefers to leave that to Vice President Biden, an old-school political charmer.
September jobs report is a political push
The September jobs report — 103,000 jobs created, unemployment rate steady at 9.1 percent — is neither good enough to provide President Obama a real boost as he makes the case for passage of his jobs bill nor bad enough to significantly embolden his Republican critics on the campaign trail and in Congress.
Does President Obama still have political juice?
The central question of President Obama’s Thursday press conference was asked in its early moments by NBC’s Chuck Todd.
“Are you worried about your own powers of persuasion and maybe that the American public is not listening to you any more?” Todd asked.
What Todd — a Fix friend, in the interest of full disclosure — was really getting at is this: Does Obama still have the political juice to convince his party in the Senate to pass some version of his $447 billion job-creating proposal?
President Obama to hold Thursday press conference
President Obama will hold a press conference today at 11 a.m. as he continues to pressure Congress to pass his jobs plan.
(President Obama will hold a press conference today to sell his jobs plan.)
It’s Obama’s first press conference since July 15 — in the heart of the debt-ceiling negotiations. Of late, he has been on an aggressive nationwide push for passage of the American Jobs Act, which neither the House and Senate has acted on yet.
We’ll be live-blogging the proceedings here on the Fix. Stay tuned.
Obama’s tax plan: Hating the player, not the game
You can’t get 75 percent of people to agree to much of anything these days.
But according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, 75 percent of Americans agree that millionaires should have their taxes raised.
This is the crux of President Obama’s tax policy and perhaps the best-known aspect of the jobs plan he has put before Congress.
Opposition to Obama grows — strongly
Four in 10 Americans “strongly” disapprove of how President Obama is handling the job of president in the new Washington Post-ABC News poll, the highest that number has risen during his time in office and a sign of the hardening opposition to him as he seeks a second term.
Obama to Democrats: Get pumped up. Now.
President Obama spent the weekend on the West Coast delivering a forceful call-to-arms to his somewhat beleaguered base, a recognition that he must find ways to energize his core supporters with the 2012 election rapidly approaching.
“I have to make sure that our side is as passionate and as motivated and is working just as hard as the folks on the other side because this is a contest of value,” Obama said at a fundraiser in San Jose.
Devil is in the details on Obama’s jobs plan
We have talked a good deal in this space about how many aspects of President Obama’s jobs plan poll quite favorably.
And that’s true.
But as we always note here at The Fix, the devil is in the details when it comes to political polling. And the GOP is searching for said devil as we speak.
They haven’t found it yet, but party strategists believe that the jobs bill isn’t as clear cut a political winner for Obama as polling has shown it.
Blaming Obama
New polling from Gallup shows that a majority of Americans — 53 percent to be exact — now say President Obama bears at least some blame for the nation’s economic problems, the first time that has been true since he took office in 2009 and a sign of the challenge before him heading into 2012.
Twenty-nine percent of those tested said Obama deserves “some blame” while 24 percent said he deserves a “great deal of blame.” Forty-seven percent said Obama deserved “not much” (27 percent) or no blame (20 percent) for the state of the economy.
Is Obama an underdog in 2012?
A look around the political landscape paints a grim picture for President Obama’s re-election prospects.
President Obama makes a point during remarks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute's awards gala in Washington, September 14, 2011. REUTERS/Jonathan ErnstTo wit:
* The unemployment rate stood at 9.1 percent in August, nearly two points above the highest that number has ever been and seen an incumbent president win a second term. Even the most optimistic economic prognosticators acknowledge that the unemployment rate is unlikely to drop in a significant way prior to November 2012.
* Obama’s job approval rating in the latest Gallup weekly tracking poll stood at 40 percent; from July 20 through Sept. 20, Obama’s average job approval is 41 percent.
* Large majorities — 77 percent in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll — say the country is headed off in the wrong direction.
* Matched against the two most likely Republican nominees — Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — Obama usually finds himself in the mid-40s and in a statistical dead heat.
Numbers like that raise a basic question: Is Obama an underdog for re-election in 2012?
Barack Obama doesn’t have a ‘women’ problem. At least not yet.
Amid stories of dissatisfaction among high-level female staffers in the White House, it’s easy to extrapolate that Obama has a “women” problem.
Except that he doesn’t.
In the most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, Obama’s approval rating is at 47 percent among women as compared to 38 percent among men.
Jen Psaki leaving White House
White House deputy communications director Jen Psaki is leaving the Obama Administration to take on a senior role at a well known Democratic communications and research firm, several sources confirmed this morning.
Psaki, who has spent the last four years on the Obama campaign and then in the White House, will be the senior vice president/managing director at Global Strategy Group.
The souring of the Obama-Boehner relationship
Less than two months ago, President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner were in secret conversations about a so-called “grand bargain” to address the country’s debt problems.
President Obama addresses a Joint Session of Congress inside the chamber of the House of Representatives on Capitol Hil in Washington earlier this month. ( REUTERS/Larry Downing)Today the two men are engaged in an increasingly vitriolic public feud — a remarkable transformation that has mirrored the growing partisanship around the economy and debt and raised doubts about the government’s ability to solve the nation’s big problems.
While both sides insist there is nothing personal to the increasingly antagonistic relationship between the two, their public comments tell a very different story.
President Obama picks a political fight on taxes
When President Obama unveils his deficit-reduction plan this morning in the Rose Garden, the proposal sure to draw the most attention is his call for people making $1 million or more to pay more in taxes.
U.S. President Barack Obama makes a speech to a joint session of Congress at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, Sept. 8, 2011. (Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg)Obama is touting the proposal as the “Buffett Rule”, an homage to billionaire investor Warren Buffett who has repeatedly insisted the wealthy should be paying more taxes.
And there are (smart) politics everywhere in it. Here’s why.
Obama ignores D.C. echo chamber. Should he?
From the time that then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama made the decision to run for president in early 2007 until today, the Democrat and his team have held firm to one core belief about the political-media world: the D.C. chattering class doesn’t have any idea what regular people think.
It was pundits who predicted that Obama could never beat then-New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primary, talking heads who declared the race over when Obama was stuck in place in December 2007 and professional talkers who speculated that his relatively thin political resume would be a handicap against Sen. John McCain in the 2008 general election.
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