By Rajiv Chandrasekaran and Robin Wright
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, November 28, 2003; Page A01

BAGHDAD, Nov. 27 -- Less than two weeks after overhauling its plans for Iraq's political transition, the Bush administration is considering more major revisions that could include elections for a provisional government in an attempt to appease the country's most powerful Shiite Muslim cleric, senior U.S. officials said.

Holding elections would be a major reversal for the administration, which has long argued that the absence of an electoral law and accurate voter rolls would make a nationwide ballot time-consuming, disruptive and open to manipulation by religious extremists and loyalists of former president Saddam Hussein.

But the senior officials said the administration may be forced to organize elections to satisfy Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. A senior cleric who has strong support among Iraq's Shiite majority, Sistani appears to have rejected a plan devised earlier this month to select a provisional government through 18 regional caucuses. Two Shiite politicians said Sistani told them on Wednesday that he does not support the caucuses and instead wants the provisional government chosen through a general election.

"Elections are now a possibility," said a senior U.S. official close to Iraq's political transition. "We're scrambling to find a solution."

The revisions under consideration illustrate the challenge the administration faces as it attempts to craft a political blueprint for Iraq that satisfies the country's diverse religious and ethnic groups while attempting to ensure U.S. influence over the new government and an end to the civil occupation before the presidential election next year.

Although the White House and the U.S.-led occupation authority in Baghdad are waiting for a clear statement from Sistani about what he wants, administration officials have concluded that their latest plan -- crafted in part to answer his earlier objections -- does not satisfy the grand ayatollah. Some officials said they are still hopeful he can be appeased with changes to a caucus system. If not, they said, the administration may have no choice but to hold elections to retain the support of Iraq's Shiite majority.

"We were surprised that Sistani did not bless the plan," another senior administration official said. "We're waiting to see what he says. If he says no to the caucuses, then we have to figure out a way to get elections done."

During his brief visit to Baghdad on Thursday, President Bush met with four members of Iraq's U.S.-appointed Governing Council. Bush said he reminded them that "it's up to them to seize the moment, to have a government that recognizes all rights, the rights of the majority and the rights of the minority, to speak to the aspirations and hopes of the Iraqi people."

According to three of the council members at the meeting, Bush indicated that he would be willing to accept revisions to the administration's transition plan, although he did not endorse the idea of elections.

One of the council members, Mowaffak Rubaie, said Bush told the group: "I will support any decision you make. I won't make decisions for you. I will help you in implementing your decisions." Two other members at the meeting, Ahmed Chalabi and Rajaa Habib Khuzai, concurred with Rubaie's account but added that Bush expressed a desire for the provisional government to be chosen through caucuses.

"He talked to us about getting the job done, about moving toward sovereignty," Chalabi said.

U.S. officials said Bush did not delve into specifics of the transition plan and merely indicated to the council members that the United States wanted to be helpful and supportive of the council. "He said, 'We're here to support you,' " an administration official said.

A senior Shiite politician who met Sistani on Wednesday evening said the grand ayatollah made clear that he wanted members of a provisional government to be chosen through direct elections, not caucuses. The politician said Sistani would issue a religious edict in the coming days that would articulate his views.

Another Shiite political leader, Abdul Aziz Hakim, said Wednesday that Sistani was concerned that the administration's transition plan did not give ordinary Iraqis enough of a say in shaping the provisional government. Hakim said Sistani also was worried that the plan lacked safeguards for what he called the country's "Islamic identity."

In an effort to defuse the crisis, the Governing Council's current president, Jalal Talabani, met with Sistani on Thursday in the holy city of Najaf. Talabani said that he agreed with several of Sistani's objections and that the council would seek to modify the plan to take the cleric's views into account.

"I see the views of his grace as logical and reasonable, and I agree with them," Talabani said after meeting with Sistani.

But Talabani stopped short of endorsing Sistani's reported demand that members of the provisional government be directly elected. Instead, Talabani suggested that the council would attempt to modify the caucus arrangement and add language that addressed Sistani's concerns about the role of Islam in the provisional government.

Sistani did not issue any public comments after the meeting. It is not known whether Talabani's concessions will satisfy him. Some council leaders said they believe that Sistani will accede to a revised caucus system, while Shiite political figures contend he will not agree to anything but elections.

Sistani's earlier demand that drafters of Iraq's constitution be elected effectively forced the administration to rework a political transition plan that called for drafters to be selected by other means -- on the grounds that early elections would be too problematic.

Under the revised plan, the handover of sovereignty would no longer wait for Iraqis to write a constitution. Instead, caucuses would be held in the country's 18 provinces to choose representatives to serve on a transitional assembly, which would form a provisional government that would assume sovereignty by next summer. After power is transferred, Iraqis would be free to elect delegates to write a constitution.

As soon as the new plan was announced Nov. 15 by leaders of the Governing Council, council members began pushing for changes. Contending that the plan was forced on them by U.S. administrator L. Paul Bremer, they have sought to revise several key elements, including the planned dissolution of the council after the provisional government was formed.

Several Shiite members also have objected to the method of choosing participants in the caucuses. Under Bremer's plan, they must be approved by 11 of 15 people on an organizing committee, which would be selected by the Governing Council and U.S.-appointed councils at the city and province level. Shiite leaders worry that religious figures may be excluded by the organizing committees.

But even Shiite leaders acknowledge that holding elections for the assembly will be a difficult endeavor. Iraq has no voter rolls, electoral districts or other basic infrastructure to facilitate a popular ballot.

Several Shiite leaders contend that the easiest way to get around that problem would be to rely on a database used to distribute food rations that lists the name and address of almost every person in the country. "It would be a quick and dirty election, but Sistani doesn't mind that," said Rubaie, a Shiite close to the grand ayatollah. "He thinks it can be done."

Bremer and other administration officials have long opposed elections because they are concerned that the voting could open the way for former members of Hussein's Baath Party or followers of anti-American Islamic extremists to slide into the new government.

U.S. officials also contend that security problems, particularly in Sunni-dominated areas north and west of Baghdad, could doom elections.

One option administration officials are considering would be to hold elections in Shiite and Kurdish areas and caucuses in Sunni areas, where resistance to the occupation has been fierce. But Shiite leaders contend that approach could exacerbate Sunni anger. They maintain that the prospect of elections could, in fact, help to quell Sunni violence.

"Will it work?" a senior administration official said. "Something's got to work. June 30 is turnover day, which is when Iraqis will have full authority and power, and nothing's going to change that."

Wright reported from Washington.