By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 27, 2004; Page A01

MANCHESTER, N.H., Jan. 26 -- Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.), who hopes to duplicate his victory in the Iowa caucuses with another here on Tuesday, has mapped out an aggressive post-New Hampshire strategy designed to amass the most delegates of any candidate in seven states with contests on Feb. 3 and dispel suggestions that he is a Northeast liberal who cannot compete in the South and Southwest.

Kerry advisers have begun to dispatch experienced organizers to those states, where the campaign will move after Tuesday's first-in-the-nation primary here. They also plan to intensify efforts to win endorsements of top elected officials in those states, flood the seven with Kerry family and surrogates, and map a plan to allocate television advertising dollars in those states -- and beyond.

After the trench warfare of Iowa and New Hampshire, the major candidates face a series of strategically difficult choices as they plot their campaigns for the single busiest day of the nominating season until a potentially climactic series of contests March 2.

Former Vermont governor Howard Dean appears likely to target Arizona and New Mexico on Feb. 3 but also is counting on a protracted race that will take him to more hospitable states after that. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) has called South Carolina a must-win state next week to keep his hopes alive. Retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark has spent heavily in South Carolina but may find Oklahoma, Arizona and New Mexico more attractive.

Everyone is eyeing Missouri, now that Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.) is out of the race, but competing there could be costly. Kerry advisers, especially, see the state as a major opportunity, and strategists in other campaigns agree that he will have the advantage there, especially if he wins New Hampshire.

All the campaigns are wrestling with questions of where to send their candidates, where to place their television ads and how to manage expectations to preserve their political viability coming out of the next round of events.

The seven states are Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Missouri alone, with 74 delegates, offers a bigger prize than Iowa and New Hampshire combined. After the Feb. 3 contests come Michigan on Feb. 7, Maine on Feb. 8, Tennessee and Virginia on Feb. 10, and Wisconsin on Feb. 17.

But not all the candidates may be around that long. For those candidates who did not win either of the first two contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, Feb. 3 may offer one last chance to revive their candidacies.

"You have to win somewhere on February 3 to be viable," said Donna Brazile, who was campaign manager for former vice president Al Gore's 2000 campaign.

Kerry advisers stressed that no state is make-or-break for them and that they are more interested in demonstrating his national appeal. By winning delegates everywhere and coming in first somewhere on Feb. 3, Kerry advisers believe they will put themselves on track to win the nomination. "We have changed from a single-focus strategy of Iowa and then New Hampshire to a very new place, which is the rest of the country," said one Kerry adviser.

Dean, in contrast to Kerry, has yet to make final decisions about where to take his campaign after New Hampshire, but already his strategic plan has undergone a dramatic change.

The original strategy called for quickly wrapping up the Democratic nomination by winning in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Since Dean's third-place finish in Iowa, the campaign's approach calls for a strong finish in New Hampshire, survival on Feb. 3 and a major effort in the March 2 round that includes contests in California, New York and Ohio. "It's a seven-week fight, not a seven-state fight," said Dean adviser Steve McMahon.

Dean's advisers fought off questions about whether a loss in New Hampshire, where the former governor once had a strong lead, would sink his hopes for the nomination.

"This guy took the disappointment of a loss in Iowa and then three days of the kind of pile-on I've rarely seen in this business," said Dean pollster Paul Maslin. "If he finishes strong here, that tells his supporters, the media and the American people that this guy has resilience. Given that it was his message that defined this race, I believe there is still a strong place for him in this race if he can make that kind of comeback" on Tuesday.

Dean advisers see Arizona and New Mexico as their best Feb. 3 targets but also are looking ahead to the next weekend, when Michigan and Maine hold their contests. Beyond that, Dean advisers say, their best hope is to remain alive to compete in California, Ohio and New York on March 2.

"We're obsessed with getting our candidate nominated, and that's not going to happen on February 3," McMahon said. "This calendar was not built to make it easy to wage a protracted fight, but that's the way the fight is going to go."

Edwards has made clear for months what his path is after New Hampshire. Last fall he said he must win South Carolina, where he was born, to remain viable, and he will concentrate his efforts there once the New Hampshire results are in.

Edwards got a big boost from his unexpected second-place finish in Iowa last week and is battling with Clark and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.) for third place in New Hampshire. Edwards has been rising in the polls since Iowa while Clark, who once was in second place, has been declining. Lieberman has seen some improvement in his standing in the past few days but is in fifth place in most polls.

Beyond South Carolina, Edwards will compete in Oklahoma and New Mexico in an effort to pick up more delegates, and while he has sent organizers into Missouri, no decision has been made about whether to go on television there, according to a senior campaign official.

If Edwards can come in third in New Hampshire, he may actually face reduced competition in South Carolina. Other major candidates know they need a victory, and several strategists in other campaigns said they might concentrate more on states where they can win than on South Carolina.

Clark appears likely to spend much of his time in Arizona -- the second-biggest delegate prize, after Missouri -- and in New Mexico and Oklahoma. Although he has spent more than $1 million on ads in South Carolina already, according to a rival campaign, internal polling shows him running behind Edwards there. A Clark official said that, in contrast, internal polling has him narrowly ahead in Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma.

Lieberman plans to target Oklahoma, South Carolina and Delaware. He has said he will continue regardless of his finish in New Hampshire. But a poor finish there could force him to reassess.

Money will be the most precious resource, and it appears that Dean, who raised far more money than any other Democrat in 2003, no longer enjoys a clear advantage in this area. Dean pulled down his television ads in the Feb. 3 states after Iowa. His advisers say they saw no reason to spend money at a time when he was getting pummeled in the media; his rivals sense Dean has little money left.

Given the expectation that the race could continue for weeks, a Dean adviser said, "everyone's going to be short of money."

Clark's campaign has raised $2 million this month, and his advisers say he will have enough to be on television in key Feb. 3 states plus Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Kerry spokesman Michael Meehan said the campaign has raised $1.1 million on the Internet alone since Iowa, with more coming through non-cyber sources. Campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said Kerry has enough to finance a $1.5 million advertising blitz in the seven states before Feb. 3.

Dean may be low on money, but his union backers will supplement what his campaign can spend. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has made about $1.3 million in independent expenditures in support of Dean over the past two weeks, much of it going to Iowa and New Hampshire, but also substantial investments in the early-February states. For example, AFSCME paid $185,000 for mailings into Arizona, South Carolina and New Mexico, along with $216,000 for surveys and phone banks to union members in Missouri, Arizona, South Carolina and Michigan.

Staff writers Ceci Connolly in New Hampshire and Thomas B. Edsall in Washington contributed to this report.