Anti-U.S. Sentiment Spreading In Pakistan

Growing Street Protests Precede Visit by Powell

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Oct. 14 -- As Secretary of State Colin L. Powell arrives here Monday to reinforce Pakistan's new anti-terrorist alliance with the United States, anti-American sentiment is growing rapidly across Pakistan, with a wide cross-section of the public expressing concern about the short-term human damage and long-term political consequences of the U.S. military campaign against next-door Afghanistan.

Last week, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf confidently claimed that only an extremist Islamic minority of between 10 percent and 15 percent of the population opposed his decision to side with the United States in its anti-terrorism campaign and airstrikes against Afghanistan. So far, most public protests, including a mob today attempting to storm a Pakistani airfield believed to contain U.S. military planes, have been confined to those groups.

But the mood across this Muslim nation is changing rapidly. Now, opinion-makers who initially supported Musharraf's decision are beginning to voice grave doubts. Moderate Pakistanis, who ordinarily would have little sympathy for either suspected terrorist Osama bin Laden or the radical Islamic Taliban regime in Afghanistan that shelters him, are angrily criticizing the government's policy.

Suddenly, T-shirts emblazoned with bin Laden's image are on sale in every urban market. Business students and postal clerks are joining religious demonstrations and vowing to wage jihad, or holy war, against the United States. In elegant drawing rooms as well as run-down mosques, many Pakistani Muslims insist that Israel must have been behind the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

The genesis of this radicalization is fast-growing public concern that the U.S. military assault on Afghanistan, now entering its second week, will lead to massive civilian casualties, continue far longer than originally expected, and drag Pakistan into a messy, open-ended conflict and political quagmire in Afghanistan that may last long after Washington has turned its attention elsewhere.

"I'm getting a very uneasy feeling," said Ayaz Amir, a columnist for the Dawn newspaper. "I was convinced we had done a good thing, that only a minority favored the Taliban and good riddance. But now not just the religious extremists, but ordinary Pakistanis, even English-speaking liberals, are asking why this is happening. Now the image is no longer the Taliban against everyone, but America mindlessly bombing a poor country. And the longer this campaign lasts, the stronger and wider that anger will become."

So far, public protests over the past several weeks have been organized and attended mostly by radical minority Islamic groups, with only a few thousand people participating. In most cases the rallies have been peaceful and successfully controlled by police, who are being deployed in increasing numbers and armed strength to prevent violence.

But in the cities of Quetta and Karachi, tens of thousands of protesters rampaged through the streets last week, stoning cars and attacking buildings including movie halls, fast-food outlets and international relief agencies. In Karachi on Friday, the entire city was shut down in response to a strike called by clerics.

Today, one group of religious demonstrators tried to attack an airfield in Jacobabad where U.S. military planes are believed to be stationed, and security forces shot and killed at least one protester. As the U.S. military assault on Afghanistan continues, Islamic groups have vowed to intensify their protests, and thousands of young men have registered to take up arms and fight alongside the Taliban if foreign ground troops enter Afghanistan.

"If [President] Bush and his monkeys want to destroy Islam, we will chase them to their grave," vowed Shayar Khan, 23, a business student at a protest Friday in Peshawar, who said he had recently traveled to Afghanistan with several hundred other students to sign up to fight. "If they send in troops, I will abandon my MBA and go for martyrdom," he said. "Now I am ashamed that I speak English, because the American policies are shameful."

As the U.S. bombing campaign began Oct. 7, Musharraf moved to ensure the support of Pakistan's security forces by replacing three top officers known to have strong Islamic views or ties to the Taliban, including his intelligence chief. His new appointees have been described as pragmatic moderates.

But analysts here said that if the U.S. military attacks continue indefinitely, with increasing civilian casualties in Afghanistan and popular unrest in Pakistan, even moderate officers within the army could break ranks with Musharraf if they see his newfound alliance with the United States becoming a liability for Pakistan's national sovereignty and stability.

"Until this crisis ends, Musharraf will be living week to week," said Rifaat Hussain, a professor of strategic and defense studies at Quaid-I-Azam University. "There is an emerging current of anti-Americanism that is turning people by default into Taliban sympathizers. People do not want Pakistan to act as a proxy for the Americans, and they are not sure if there is an exit strategy for our entanglement in the Afghan crisis. They fear the Americans will leave and we will end up holding the bag."

Powell's visit could prove a double-edged sword for Musharraf at this sensitive juncture, Hussain and others said. On one hand, the secretary of state will have an opportunity to reassure Pakistan of Washington's long-term commitment to its new strategic partner. On the other, his visit could intensify public suspicion that Musharraf is becoming too compliant toward a self-interested superpower.

"Powell could help or hurt," said Hussain. "Musharraf has to keep his distance from Washington. If he stands shoulder to shoulder with Powell, he could be seen as a lackey. The American campaign has lionized bin Laden and given the religious groups more ammunition. But the main issue is Pakistan's national sovereignty."

Talat Masood, a retired Pakistani army general and political moderate, expressed concern that the United States, in its zeal to combat terrorism and eagerness to avoid American casualties, is committing military "overkill" by widely bombing Afghanistan and not adequately considering the political fallout in Pakistan, which shares a long border with Afghanistan and already shelters more than 2 million Afghan refugees.

Many Pakistanis fear that a long and messy conflict in Afghanistan could be followed by a violent struggle to fill a post-Taliban political void that would deeply embroil Pakistan. The last time this happened, after Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989, the United States abandoned the region and Pakistan inherited a legacy of violence and religious extremism.

"The Americans have to treat this region as a theater, and so far they have not," Masood said. "They want to make sure no Americans come home in body bags, but they could lose their long-term strategic goals for short-term tactical gains. This is a war of hearts and minds, and ordinary people can get Talibanized in the process. If they have to send in troops to get the Taliban out, it could fragment Pakistan and destabilize it."

As a military leader, Musharraf has used his position decisively to shore up support within the army and crack down on religious groups, leaving little doubt that he will use force to quell violent opposition. But he is in a far weaker position to court public opinion because of his hostility toward established political parties and his insistence on rebuilding Pakistani democracy without their help.

So far, most political leaders here have remained silent or faintly supportive of Musharraf's new alliance with the West. With party activity banned and the regional and national legislatures suspended since Musharraf's military coup two years ago, they have no formal outlet for their views. But now, analysts said, Musharraf needs to reach out to them if he is to preserve his rapidly flagging support among moderate and secular Muslims.

"We support the government's position against terrorism, but it owes the people more transparency in its decisions," said Abida Hussain, a dissident leader of the Pakistan Muslim League, the party in power until the 1999 coup. "We don't know exactly what the Americans have asked for or what Pakistan has promised in return. The government needs to take the people into confidence."

Raja Zafar ul-Haq, leader of a rival Muslim League faction, said that at first, the party felt Musharraf had sided with "lesser evil" and refrained from joining religious-led protests. But with the U.S. bombing becoming more controversial by the day, he said, party officials face mounting pressure from young members who want to take to the streets.

"People everywhere are talking openly against the bombing, and against Musharraf allowing Pakistan to become involved," he said. "It is sucking in the entire political spectrum. If the present government collapses, or Musharraf remains hostile to the mainstream political parties, the void could be filled by extremists. That is something we must avoid at all costs."