TOKYO, March 4-The interception of an American reconnaissance plane by North Korean MiGs this weekend followed repeated alarms from North Korea that it expected to be attacked during the military exercises that U.S. and South Korean forces began today.
North Korea applied surprising force, sending out four aircraft, two of them modern versions of the MiG. The distances that U.S. officials say the jets flew and the closeness they maintained to the American plane suggested a performance difficult for the enfeebled North Korean air force, military analysts said.
Some experts here said the distances that the United States cited raised questions as to whether the spy plane was really well outside North Korean air space. But they agree the North Korean response was purposely forceful to show that its military will not just roll over in the event of conflict. And those experts predict furthe such incidents during the month-long U.S.-South Korean mock war games.
"If an encounter like this happens again, I think they will shoot down the U.S. plane," said a former North Korean general who defected to Seoul. "North Koreans don't have any fear of war. All the people are trained to be prepared for it."
Asian governments today studiously presented a low-key reaction to the event Sunday. The North Korean jets trailed a U.S. RC-135S for 22 minutes, at one point coming to within 50 feet of the aircraft, according to the Pentagon account.
China urged that "all sides keep calm and exercise restraint." South Korea's new government remained largely mum. Japan demurred over "unfavorable actions" by Pyongyang. Australia's foreign minister called the incident "part of a pattern of attention-seeking" by Pyongyang.
North Korea made no comment directly on the incident. But in recent days, its official media outlets have been at high pitch over the annual military exercise in which U.S. and South Korean forces are conducting mock battles, some of them near the Demilitarized Zone. A majority of North Korea's forces are poised just beyond the zone.
Although North Korea protests the exercises each year, analysts here say the United States may have underestimated how genuinely threatened North Korea feels by military maneuvers.
"They are very alarmed by 'Foal Eagle,'" the code name for one of the two simultaneous exercises, said Pyon Jin Il, managing editor of the "Korea Report," a journal of critical analysis of North Korea published in Tokyo.
They believe that the United States often uses exercises as a cover to aggressive action, he said. "They are afraid the United States might make an air strike against their missile launching sites" during these exercises, he added.
The spy plane flights may well have been seen as preparation for that, he noted. The interception should be seen by the United States against the backdrop of that fear, he said.
North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency today said the gathering of military forces for Foal Eagle is "driving the situation to the brink of a war" and is part of a "plan for preemptive attack" by the United States.
Some analysts expressed caution about accepting the U.S. version that its plane, a modified Boeing 707, was deep in international airspace 150 miles from North Korean shores. They note U.S. spy craft routinely fly close to North Korean airspace. And they say the United States claimed the Pueblo spy ship was in international waters when it was captured by North Korea in 1968, but later acknowledged it was in North Korean waters.
"There's always competing claims, and it's difficult to know," said Pyon.
On three other occasions in the past 35 years, North Korea has demonstrated its willingness to use lethal force against the United States. In 1968 it captured the Pueblo, killing one sailor and imprisoning 82 others for 11 months. In 1969 it shot down an American EC-121 reconnaissance craft, killing 31 Americans in what has been called the worst single loss of U.S. servicemen in the Cold War. In 1976, two more American soldiers were killed by North Koreans in the Demilitarized Zone.
The North Korean officer said he is skeptical that the U.S. plane, which took off from Okinawa on patrol to intercept North Korean communications, was so clearly in international airspace.
"Normally, North Korea does not care what happens outside their country. But when it comes to an intrusion, they are very, very sensitive," said the defector. One of the highest ranking officers to flee from North Korea, he still is under partial protection by the South Koreans and asked that his name not be made public.
"They really think that the United States plans to attack and invade their country," he said. "It links directly to their survival issue. That's probably why the pilot went so close."
Other analysts also noted that the North Koreans are desperately short of fuel for their aircraft, and to have four MiGs fly 150 miles from shore for the interception of the spy craft is unexpected.
"North Korean pilots only fly on average 20 hours or less" per year because of the fuel shortage, said Motoaki Kamiura, a Japanese military analyst. "So this was not just a provocation; it was beyond that. It was very dangerous."
"I'm very surprised there were two MiG-29s," he added. "Even in Russia, the MiG-29s are the newest, latest model."
"This was just a warning to the United States. Be careful," said Kim Myong Chol, who directs a pro-Pyongyang organization in Tokyo and frequently speaks for North Korea in Japan. "During the American military war games, the spy planes are provocations."
U.S. officials have repeatedly said there are no plans to attack North Korea, but the message has been mixed. President Bush, in an interview Monday with the Baltimore Sun and other newspapers, said diplomatic efforts are "in process. If they don't work diplomatically, they'll have to work militarily. And military option is our last choice."
The North Korean officer, who defected eight years ago, said his countrymen truly believe they must eventually fight the United States to defend their country, and they act out of a deep nationalistic zeal.
"When North Korea does things that are provoking, the Western countries and South Korea may think it's absurd or foolish. But North Korea thinks very differently," said the general.
"For them, flying close to a spy plane like that is justifiable as something they ought to do," he said in an interview today. "North Korea is a very proud country especially when it comes to security and independence. Such xenophobic attitude is the basis of their mentality."
"Strategically, North Korea may be planning to provoke the United States and lure them into picking . . . a fight first, so that they could put the burden of responsibility on the Americans," he said. North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il, "is in a good position to sacrifice the people, who are ready and willing, when it comes to the last resort."
Another defector, Paek Soon-Bok, left North Korea two years ago. She said relatives in North Korea reported that air raid drills have recently been stepped up amid a general sense expectation of war with the United States.
"North Koreans are trained and exercised to be ready for war, like robots," she said today. "They really think that war is an inevitable future. We grew up saying over and over again that we need to protect our country. We will fight to death if the evil Americans invade our territory."
Special correspondent Cho reported from Seoul.
