Federal regulators have begun considering rules that would allow drones, the pilotless planes being used in the war in Afghanistan, to fly in U.S. airspace.
Supporters envision the use of drones, also known as unmanned aerial vehicles, for such tasks as moving cargo, pinpointing traffic problems, patrolling the border, searching for fugitives or fighting forest fires -- creating a domestic commercial market for drones that some believe could be worth more than $2 billion during this decade."There is a pent-up demand for civil and commercial application" of drones, said Scott Dann, president of an industry group that is pushing for commercial drones, which includes Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp.
This Predator drone aircraft is being adapted by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems for scientific and commercial use.
(Photos Jonathan Alcorn For The Washington Post)
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But critics worry that they drones could endanger the millions of travelers who fly in thousands of private and commercial aircraft. They also question whether the aircraft are reliable enough to fly in domestic airspace.
"To even contemplate mixing unmanned vehicles with the commercial sector is widely premature at best," said John Carr, president of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. "Yes, there has been some success in Afghanistan but that's a long way from Chicago O'Hare."
Drones are typically operated by pilots on the ground or computers. For years, the industry has tried to introduce drones to the domestic sky, but the limited track record of the aircraft failed to catch federal attention. Emboldened by military success in Afghanistan, industry groups have recently begun talking with the Federal Aviation Administration, hoping to turn greater public awareness into regulatory approval.
Already, some in Congress are beginning to consider the idea. "I have long supported the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) by the U.S. military, and I believe that the potential applications for this technology in the area of homeland defense are quite compelling," Sen. John W. Warner (R-Va.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said in a prepared statement.
Warner called for a White House study on the use of drones by domestic federal agencies, acknowledging that there could also be privacy concerns -- drones are used by the military for surveillance in a way that might not be acceptable to American civilians at home. "We must . . . meet our national security needs without unduly sacrificing the privacy rights of our citizens," Warner said.
There is currently no commercial market for drones, but they are flown sporadically over the United States for testing. Flights require FAA approval, which sometimes comes with the caveat that the drones stick to a carefully constructed flight path that keeps them out of regular air traffic and be trailed by a "chase aircraft" -- a piloted plane that ensures that it stays clear of other traffic. The FAA has about 30 certificates outstanding allowing such flights in the past year, although some certificates cover more than one flight.
Acknowledging the potential of the market, the FAA is already contemplating how it would regulate such uses, said Alton Scott, manager of special operations, air traffic planning and procedures.
"The usefulness of this type of vehicle is infinite. Anything that a small aircraft can do, can be done with a remotely [operated] aircraft," Scott said. "I think one day we will get to that point . . . but the rules and regulations have to be put in place" first.
Critics worry that a commercial airplane encountering a drone would be in danger.
"The technology is not sophisticated enough to assure the safety of other vehicles," said Carr of the controllers group. "It is not the unmanned drone that I am worried about; it's the commercial aircraft that has to operate in the same airspace with 200 people on board."
The Pentagon has been experimenting with pilotless planes for half a century, and for the past 10 years has deployed them in combat missions in areas including the Persian Gulf and the Balkans. A Predator drone, which can linger for 20 hours over a battlefield beaming back information to commanders on the ground, recently fired on suspected al Qaeda terrorists in Yemen, killing six. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld has labeled them a "transformational" weapons systems, ensuring them a place in his defense budget.
A drone can rival a 747 in size or weigh just 10 pounds with a nine-foot wingspan. The military is also experimenting with mini-drones that can be carried in a backpack, but they have not been deployed yet, according to Teal Group Inc., a research firm specializing in the defense industry.
Once drones reach mass production their cost will drop below that of manned aircraft, industry officials said. High-endurance drones, which can fly for days or weeks at a time, would be cheaper than a manned plane that has to be periodically brought down to refuel or change pilots, said Daryl Davidson of the Association of Unmanned Vehicle Systems International.
A fleet of drones could be operated by a relatively small number of operators on the ground, lowering personnel costs, he said. "A comparable-sized crew can operate multiple [drones] instead of operating one manned aircraft," Davidson said. But without pilots aboard, drones can't make the kinds of decisions pilots make every day, critics say. And they say drones were not designed to barrel through U.S. airspace, which can contain more than 8,000 planes at the busiest times.
Even if the drones were to fly at extremely high altitudes where commercial aircraft rarely venture, that would not be enough to satisfy some safety concerns, critics say. "They have to come up and they have to go down" passing through regular air traffic, said Warren Morningstar, a spokesman for the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association.
Further, critics point to the drones' spotty record in the military. During the Kosovo war, 10 times as many drones were lost as manned vehicles, according to a report from Teal Group Inc.. Three of the Air Force's six Global Hawks, which cost about $35 million each, have crashed. About half of the 50 much smaller, $4.5 million Predators, which can get closer to potential targets to send pictures and coordinates, have been lost, including some that were shot down, an Air Force spokesman said.
"If you look at the military, they have an extremely high attrition rate. Admittedly some of this is due to combat action, but accidents are also a major source of loss," said Steven Zaloga, a weapons expert with Teal Group. Such losses couldn't be sustained in the civilian market, he said.
Defense contractors acknowledge the safety issues, and say they are being addressed. The drones cannot detect aircraft and avoid them automatically, said Scott Dann, a program manager of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc., "but that's something we're working on."
And if a pilot guiding a drone from the ground were to lose contact, there would be no way to guide it to a safe landing, Dann said. "The technology has improved leaps and bounds over the last 10 years, but flying over Los Angeles or New York is another ballgame," he said.
While they work on the safety issues, defense contractors say that federal regulations are keeping the drone flights rare and are inhibiting the industry's growth. It typically takes two months to get FAA approval and "chase aircraft" are costly, industry officials complain.
"There could be a lot of opportunities in the UAV marketplace. . . . We need to have free and ready access to national airspace for this to work," said Neil Kacena, deputy director of advanced development programs for Bethesda-based Lockheed Martin.
General Atomics, which makes the Predator, tests drones at an airport in El Mirage, Calif., but when one files more than three miles from its base, the company must launch a manned plane to follow it, adding hundreds of dollars an hour to the cost of tests, company officials said. And although the industry acknowledges some of the safety concerns that the air traffic controllers raise, they would eventually like to have the same freedom as small aircraft -- to just file a flight plan and take off.
"An ideal end point would be to be able to file and fly," said Todd Blecher, a Boeing spokesman. "Ultimately we need to get there for there to be a real market opportunity."
An industry group that wants to fly unfettered above 40,000 feet, proposed a five-year program involving industry, NASA, the FAA and the Defense Department. (The controllers group says commercial aircraft now cruise between 29,000 to 41,000 feet, and some jets can go higher.) Under the proposal, the FAA would initially establish stringent rules that govern the flights, but grant wider access, said spokeswoman Karen Robbins. Over several years, the rules would fall away, leaving a streamlined version similar to those that govern piloted planes, she said.
Among the restrictions likely to emerge is a requirement that the pilots who operate the drones from the ground be specially certified and that the planes themselves be certified as safe, Robbins said. The FAA would probably issue detailed rules governing takeoffs and landings, she added.
The Coast Guard, which wants to add drones to its arsenal, is contemplating similar restraints. Plans call for the Coast Guard to add a drone that lifts vertically from a ship deck by 2006, said John Williams, deputy chief in the Office of Aviation Forces. Another version that would take off from shore and patrol the coastline would arrive in 2016.
"These vehicles are too costly to be considered throwaways," said Bob Paulison, air systems integration manager for Deepwater, a planned overhaul of the Coast Guard's fleet. "It is certainly part of our acquisition plan to ensure that they are reliable for our operations and safe to fly over populated areas."
