With Jim Jeffords's defection, unified Republican control of the federal government comes to an end after only four months. And George W. Bush's honeymoon is over -- big time. What happens next?
Good things for the president -- if he rises to the occasion. The loss of the Senate is an opportunity for Bush.
From 1968 on, we've had unified control of the government for only six years: under Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1980, and under Bill Clinton in 1993-1994. These were not good times for those presidents. One party in charge means that party's leader held accountable.
Now if the next 18 months feature a wonderful economy, a world at peace and lots of successes in Washington, then Bush could have benefited from GOP control of Congress. But if the political and economic and foreign policy worlds are going to be a mess over the next year and a half (which strikes me as a better bet), then Bush could use a Democratic Senate to his advantage -- as Clinton did a Republican Congress in 1995-1996, and as Reagan did a Democratic House during his first term.
What's more, Bush received a half-million fewer votes than Gore last November. The two liberal candidates, Gore and Nader, together won a clear majority. There's nothing worse for a party, and a president, than to seem to be in charge while lacking a genuine popular mandate for their agenda and while lacking (though having nominal) control of a Senate in which 60 votes are required except for one budget bill a year. The new alignment actually reflects the real political balance of power and keeps expectations for Bush's success reasonable.
Jeffords's defection could also provide a useful splash of cold water for cocky Republicans intoxicated by being back in power but (heretofore) blind to the precariousness of their hold on power. GOP arrogance may in fact have prompted Jeffords's decision. White House aides boasted of punishing Jeffords's opposition to Bush's tax cuts by refusing to invite Jeffords to an event honoring a Vermonter as teacher of the year. Meanwhile, Hill Republicans speculated to reporters about taking retribution by killing Jeffords's beloved Northeast Interstate Dairy Compact. A couple of weeks ago, one senior Republican explained to the Weekly Standard that "there's a one- or two-year plan to punish him for his behavior. And it's stuff that may hurt him, but stuff that's not going to draw a significant amount of attention. So they're going to get him." Who got whom? But if the Bush White House comes to appreciate the utility of humility, the Jeffords departure could be a valuable learning experience.
Meanwhile, Tom Daschle, who has been an able Senate minority leader, will have to run the place. Good luck. As minority leader in 1993-1994, Bob Dole was a success; as majority leader in 1995-1996, he had trouble. And majority status will embolden the dominant wing of the Democratic caucus to drag the party further to the left -- making Daschle's task yet more difficult. Daschle is the Democrats' brightest star. Anything that makes his life more difficult and tarnishes his luster is good for Republicans in 2002, and for Bush in 2004.
Trent Lott knows how difficult it is to be majority leader in a narrowly divided Senate. He may never get to enjoy the pleasures of leading the minority, because one effect of Jeffords's decision should be to prompt a challenge to Lott. Given Lott's unimpressive performance as public spokesman and as legislative strategist, his replacement by a fresh face like Bill Frist of Tennessee or Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania would help the GOP and the Bush administration.
Stripped of the false security of GOP control of both houses of Congress, Bush will have to master the two habits of highly effective presidential leadership: triangulation and intimidation. On issues where Bush wants to be moderate, he can triangulate between the two Toms, Daschle and DeLay. On issues where he chooses to stand on principle, he will have to take his case to the country, over the head of a hostile branch of Congress. With Republican control, Bush and his advisers may have thought an inside game would be enough. Now Bush will have no choice but to follow Reagan's example. He will have to show that on a few key issues he can use the bully pulpit to strike fear into Democratic hearts. Any successful president needs to be not just liked but also feared. Bush may end up thanking Jeffords for forcing upon him this challenge.
The writer is editor and publisher of the Weekly Standard.
