Capital Weather Gang: November, 2011
Posted at 03:45 PM ET, 11/30/2011
By Ian Livingston
Some lingering upper-level energy has kept us pretty cloudy through the “peak heating” of the midday and into the afternoon, but skies are breaking a bit now, and they should clear out into the evening and overnight. Temperatures that got up to near 50 are just a smidge cooler than averages in the low 50s, but a gusty breeze made it feel cooler than that at times. Still, not so bad...
By Ian Livingston |
03:45 PM ET, 11/30/2011 |
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Posted at 02:32 PM ET, 11/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
With the start of December, Capital Weather Gang’s Snow Potential Index will return.
By Jason Samenow |
02:32 PM ET, 11/30/2011 |
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Posted at 12:04 PM ET, 11/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
We’ve had a beautiful autumn in the D.C. metro region and surrounding mountains, Bay, and seashore. Since late October, we’ve received an unbelievable number of stunning photographs showcasing this most picturesque of seasons. Last week, photographer Cortez Austin sent me his gallery of fall photos from around the region and my jaw dropped. He graciously has permitted me to share some of his photos with you here. Enjoy!
By Jason Samenow |
12:04 PM ET, 11/30/2011 |
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Posted at 10:11 AM ET, 11/30/2011
By Jason Samenow
In Tuesday’s Washington Post print edition, CWG’s Andrew Freedman profiles the work of Judah Cohen, Ph.D., principal scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (a Verisk Analytics company) who has studied linkages between fall Eurasian snow cover and East Coast winter weather. The article begins: According to new research, Washingtonians shouldn’t blame bad luck for the recent string of high-impact snowstorms, from “Snowmaggedon” two years ago to last January’s “Commuteageddon.” Instead, it may be more justified to cast a suspicious gaze toward Siberia, about 6,000 miles away.
By Jason Samenow |
10:11 AM ET, 11/30/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/30/2011
By Dan Stillman
Partial sun and highs in the 50s doesn’t sound bad at all for the last day of November. But the way we experience weather is always relative. And compared to the past 10 days of highs above 60 at Reagan National, today’s low 50s carry a significant chill. So dress warmly and give your body a chance to acclimate to our new normal, which stays in place straight through the weekend.
By Dan Stillman |
05:00 AM ET, 11/30/2011 |
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Posted at 05:07 PM ET, 11/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
The Weather Channel’s (TWC) superstar meteorologist Jim Cantore is coming to Washington, D.C. on December 14 to speak at the National Press Club (NPC). He’ll discuss his 25 years covering weather on TWC in a luncheon talk
By Jason Samenow |
05:07 PM ET, 11/29/2011 |
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Posted at 04:40 PM ET, 11/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
Today concludes a stunning 10-day stretch of above average temperatures, all topping 60 degrees at Reagan National Airport. Since this morning’s high in the mid-60s, temperatures have tumbled some 15 degrees. Cool air continues to filter in overnight as skies partially clear. Seasonably cool conditions complement November’s final day, Wednesday.
By Jason Samenow |
04:40 PM ET, 11/29/2011 |
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Posted at 01:44 PM ET, 11/29/2011
By Wes Junker
Last week, I discussed several of the challenges in making a snowstorm forecast. They include: 1) many of the physical processes that govern the atmosphere act non-linearly, 2) uncertainty about the initial state of the atmosphere, 3) certain part of a model’s physics have to be approximateds. Today, I’ll walk you through the additional three factors which can lead to bad forecasts
By Wes Junker |
01:44 PM ET, 11/29/2011 |
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Posted at 10:42 AM ET, 11/29/2011
By Jason Samenow
An unusually cold disturbance at upper levels of atmosphere rolled through the mid-South last night, producing snow in parts of northwest Alabama, northeast Mississippi, northwest Arkansas, southern Missouri, and southwest Tennessee.
By Jason Samenow |
10:42 AM ET, 11/29/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/29/2011
By Matt Rogers
A low pressure area combined with a cold front aims for our area today. It will deliver rain this morning morning that could become heavier at times toward midday and through the afternoon. Nice morning temperatures in the 60s fall into the 50s with the rain. Temperatures tonight keep falling (30s-40s) with a 20% chance of lingering evening showers. Seasonably cool but tranquil for the rest of the week.
By Matt Rogers |
05:00 AM ET, 11/29/2011 |
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Posted at 05:08 PM ET, 11/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
While just shy of record-setting, we logged another unseasonably mild late November day with highs near 70. Temperatures remain mild well into tomorrow before a cold front slices through the region, with a period of showers, heavy in spots. Cooler weather filters in for Tuesday night and beyond.
By Jason Samenow |
05:08 PM ET, 11/28/2011 |
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Posted at 04:01 PM ET, 11/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hurricane season in the tropical Atlantic officially ends November 30. After predictions for a busy season, how did it pan out?
By Jason Samenow |
04:01 PM ET, 11/28/2011 |
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Posted at 01:19 PM ET, 11/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
The preliminary high temperature reports are in and it doesn’t appear records were set. Reagan National (DCA) hit 71, three of its record, Dulles 70, one off its record, and BWI 69, four off its record.
By Jason Samenow |
01:19 PM ET, 11/28/2011 |
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Posted at 11:53 AM ET, 11/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
There’s something about the end of the month and rare early season snow this fall. In late October, parts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast got pasted. Now, parts of the South may well see some unusual snowflakes to close out November. A potent upper level low pressure system will dig into the mid-South tonight, with a pool of cold air sufficient to support snow in areas unaccustomed to it, especially at this time of the year.
By Jason Samenow |
11:53 AM ET, 11/28/2011 |
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Posted at 09:56 AM ET, 11/28/2011
By Andrew Freedman
New research takes some of the most dire global warming projections off the table. A study published last week in the journal Science concludes that the more extreme climate change scenarios, which involve temperature increases of up to 10°F are implausible. Instead, the study finds, we are likely in the midst of a more manageable, but still potentially dangerous, shift in the planet’s climate.
By Andrew Freedman |
09:56 AM ET, 11/28/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/28/2011
By Jason Samenow
For the last eight days, temperatures have been warmer than normal, with each of those days reaching the 60s, at least. We probably make it to 10 straight days above 60 before we cool off to more seasonal levels for the middle and latter part of the week. Tuesday’s the transition day with a period of some heavier showers possible.
By Jason Samenow |
05:00 AM ET, 11/28/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/27/2011
By Brian Jackson
It’s not a bad end to our holiday weekend as many get back on the roads to head back home. You won’t be fighting much sun glare as you drive through our neck of the woods but it may be a good opportunity to crack the windows a bit as we’re in for another pleasant, albeit cloudy, day. A developing low to our southwest slows down the rain but keeps the southerly flow pumping until finally passing through on Tuesday. In its wake, we’re in for a reality check as November’s end reminds us what time of year it is.
By Brian Jackson |
05:00 AM ET, 11/27/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/26/2011
By Ian Livingston
We’re getting quite a treat this holiday weekend, unless you’re looking for early season snow or something! I’m sure all of you putting up Christmas decorations and finishing up any outdoor maintenance before winter sets in are enjoying it at least. Another stellar one with temperatures well into the 60s is ahead today, and while tomorrow might not be quite as brilliant, it’s still pretty darn good for this time of year.
By Ian Livingston |
05:00 AM ET, 11/26/2011 |
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Posted at 03:43 PM ET, 11/25/2011
By Jason Samenow
Probably a close call as to who’s more thankful for today’s fabulous weather - the retailers, or the shoppers bouncing from store to store beneath glorious sun and highs that reached the mid-to-upper 60s most spots, with a few 70s around too. These temps are some 10-15 degrees above normal. More great news for all: same deal Saturday. Sunday’s no slouch either, but clouds will hold temps back a few degrees.
By Jason Samenow |
03:43 PM ET, 11/25/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/25/2011
By Brian Jackson
High pressure stays in control today, leading to a near perfect day to get outside and exercise away yesterday’s meal. Highs well into the 60s might make you forget we’re less than a week away from December! There’s a reminder in our future though, as a strong cold front brings rain chances Sunday or Sunday night into Monday, along with much cooler temperatures to kick off the new work week.
By Brian Jackson |
05:00 AM ET, 11/25/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/24/2011
By David Streit
This is a day made for a pickup game of football or some outdoor activity to work up an appetite. It only gets better this weekend. Black Friday shoppers have nary a weather worry and Saturday makes a mighty run at 70 degrees! The only concern is a chance of showers by late Sunday but hopefully we all complete our return from travels before it arrives.
By David Streit |
05:00 AM ET, 11/24/2011 |
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Posted at 04:04 PM ET, 11/23/2011
By Ian Livingston
It was a bit of a wild weather morning as showers in advance of a cold front were followed by strong gusty winds. Conditions have trended “better” midday into the afternoon, at least with a few breaks overhead, but it’s still quite windy and there’s a remnant shower threat until the upper-level energy passes to our east later this evening. We’ve got a mighty fine Thanksgiving Day ahead though, and it gets even better by Black Friday.
By Ian Livingston |
04:04 PM ET, 11/23/2011 |
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Posted at 02:49 PM ET, 11/23/2011
By Jason Samenow
A new website, which scans social media for place-based indicators of sickness, detects a plume of unwelcome ailments sprawled across the D.C. metro region.
By Jason Samenow |
02:49 PM ET, 11/23/2011 |
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Posted at 12:54 PM ET, 11/23/2011
By Jason Samenow
An “extraordinary” storm has smashed into the Pacific Northwest, carrying ashore flooding rain, hurricane-force wind gusts and heavy mountain snow.
By Jason Samenow |
12:54 PM ET, 11/23/2011 |
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Posted at 11:06 AM ET, 11/23/2011
By Wes Junker
Almost every year, at least one snow forecast ends up busting in our region. Many readers probably remember last year’s December 26 bust (when we called for 3-6” of snow, and little fell). The fall-out elicited remarks like “weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong 90 percent of the time and still keep your job.” While that’s a huge overstatement about the state of weather forecasting, it certainly captures the frustration that many feel when a forecast fails. This article will attempt to explain why the forecasting a snowstorm is so difficult and why meteorologists often equivocate when discussing a storm’s potential. This is part one in a two part series.
By Wes Junker |
11:06 AM ET, 11/23/2011 |
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Posted at 04:00 AM ET, 11/23/2011
By Dan Stillman
Low pressure and an associated cold front do their best to disrupt travel this morning with precipitation up and down the Eastern Seaboard including the I-95 corridor. But conditions improve nicely heading into the afternoon. And Thanksgiving Day should be precipitation-free for the vast majority of the nation. Calm weather holds court in the D.C. area tomorrow through Saturday before our next weather system approaches on Sunday.
By Dan Stillman |
04:00 AM ET, 11/23/2011 |
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Posted at 06:39 PM ET, 11/22/2011
By Jason Samenow
Two years ago, much was made about the unauthorized release of thousands of emails featuring private conversations between a group of climate scientists. Dubbed Climategate, these emails showed a few climate scientists being irritable and clubby, and - in the eyes of some - controlling and even deceptive. Some research suggests the ClimateGate episode lowered the public’s trust in climate science and their belief in man-made global warming. In a seeming effort to take another swing at the integrity of climate science, a second crop of emails was anonymously released today, apparently from the same place as 2009: Britain’s University of East Anglia. The “new” emails - while trumpeted by some climate skeptics as “spectacular” and draining life from the manmade global warming movement - mean little substantively from a scientific standpoint, just like the set that preceded them
By Jason Samenow |
06:39 PM ET, 11/22/2011 |
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Posted at 05:08 PM ET, 11/22/2011
By Jason Samenow
Our second straight day of a serious lack of sunlight has passed. Maybe by Wednesday afternoon, some blue skies emerge. But clouds prevail tonight, and heavier showers and thunderstorms arrive by morning. And even as partial clearing occurs during Wednesday, we won’t be able to totally shake the rain threat until dark.
By Jason Samenow |
05:08 PM ET, 11/22/2011 |
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Posted at 02:54 PM ET, 11/22/2011
By Greg Postel
The days of unseasonably mild air in the eastern third of the nation are numbered. The transition away from the current regime, which has recently featured mild weather over much of the eastern half of North America, towards one that will deliver repeated chilly spells over the Ohio Valley will likely become obvious in the last couple of days of the month. Before then, however, exceptionally mild air will once again surge from the Plains to the East Coast late this week and bring a very warm start to the Thanksgiving weekend for many locations east of the Rockies.
By Greg Postel |
02:54 PM ET, 11/22/2011 |
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Posted at 11:13 AM ET, 11/22/2011
By Justin Grieser
Thanksgiving in the nation’s capital is shaping up to be sunny and seasonably cool this year. But if you’re like me and usually celebrate Turkey Day in the D.C. metro area, you probably recall some years offering typical November weather and others that were nearly warm enough to consider moving the meal outside. At the other extreme, we’ve even had a bit of snow to accompany the turkey on a few rare occasions
By Justin Grieser |
11:13 AM ET, 11/22/2011 |
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Posted at 10:19 AM ET, 11/22/2011
By Jason Samenow
Hurricane season ends in just over a week, yet one of eastern Pacific’s most intense storms this year swirls over the open ocean. Kenneth strengthened to category 4 intensity this morning, becoming the strongest hurricane on record so late in the season in the eastern north Pacific.
By Jason Samenow |
10:19 AM ET, 11/22/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/22/2011
By Matt Rogers
Gloomy weather is the story today and tomorrow as a weather system takes its time moving through the area. Rain could be moderate or heavy at times, especially this afternoon with a warm front and again Wednesday morning with the cold front. The good news is that Thanksgiving is looking great. Albeit breezy and a bit cooler (highs in 50s), we should have lots of sunshine. Friday and Saturday are on the warm side with mostly sunny weather.
By Matt Rogers |
05:00 AM ET, 11/22/2011 |
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Posted at 04:15 PM ET, 11/21/2011
By Ian Livingston
Along with lots of clouds, some fog and drizzle, we’ve seen a fairly sizeable range in highs today from the upper 50s to mid-60s, thanks to shifting winds across the area. Most spots peaked early (around lunchtime) and temperatures have been dipping back into and through the 50s since. We’ve got more cloud cover and rain to dodge for the next two days or so as well, so keep that umbrella handy.
By Ian Livingston |
04:15 PM ET, 11/21/2011 |
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Posted at 03:52 PM ET, 11/21/2011
By Jason Samenow
Through the years, weather has served as a frequent inspiration for songwriters. Allusions and references to our skies and the precipitation falling from them have complemented countless tunes. Help us identify the most poetic, memorable and outstanding weather-related song lyrics. I’ll aggregate submissions and then put up the top 10 most frequently mentioned for a vote.
By Jason Samenow |
03:52 PM ET, 11/21/2011 |
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Posted at 02:01 PM ET, 11/21/2011
By Jason Samenow
Are you ready to get out of town for Thanksgiving? You may want to allow some extra time if you’re traveling in the East and Pacific Northwest Tuesday and Wednesday.
By Jason Samenow |
02:01 PM ET, 11/21/2011 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 11/21/2011
By Andrew Freedman
Among the long list of billion dollar weather-related disasters during 2011, there is one event that is still ongoing, with no end in sight, its economic ramifications growing with each passing day. The Texas drought - already the Lone Star State’s worst one-year drought on record - is now expected to last through at least next summer, and perhaps far longer than that, according to the latest climate projections released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and recent testimony by the Texas state climatologist.
By Andrew Freedman |
11:00 AM ET, 11/21/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/21/2011
By Jason Samenow
Surely, lots of people are on the move the first half of this week and the weather won’t be the best but certainly not the worst. Mostly, it’s cloudy and gray with pockets of light rain and drizzle. The most inclement weather may pass through the first half of Wednesday with some heavier showers or thunderstorms. We clear out for a sunny and windy Thanksgiving.
By Jason Samenow |
05:00 AM ET, 11/21/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/20/2011
By Brian Jackson
Lots of gray in the upcoming forecast, so I hope you enjoyed yesterday’s sunshine. Clouds increase today ahead of a string of disturbances that keep us socked in the clouds and bring us shower chances tonight through midweek. There’s light at the end of the tunnel though as a strong cold front sweeps through Wednesday clearing the air just in time for the holiday.
By Brian Jackson |
05:00 AM ET, 11/20/2011 |
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Posted at 12:00 AM ET, 11/20/2011
By Ian Livingston
Southerly flow lifts temperatures well above normal for a late November contest. Even with partly to mostly cloudy skies, temperatures rise into the pleasant low-to-mid 60s during the game.
By Ian Livingston |
12:00 AM ET, 11/20/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/19/2011
By Ian Livingston
It’s officially cold-morning season, right? Well, today’s might be the last for a while. Temperatures are still running a little cooler than we’d expect in this part of November, but the trend upward from yesterday will be evident. More mild air is on the way as well, though it brings with it clouds and a chance of rain. Sounds sort of like a cooler version of last week’s forecast around this time.
By Ian Livingston |
05:00 AM ET, 11/19/2011 |
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Posted at 03:27 PM ET, 11/18/2011
By Jason Samenow
Today’s temperatures, which topped out in the mid-to-upper 40s, were more characteristic of mid-December. But as flow shifts from more northerly to southerly over the course of the weekend, temperatures moderate. Tonight though, could well be the season’s coldest so far, a shade chillier than last night even.
By Jason Samenow |
03:27 PM ET, 11/18/2011 |
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Posted at 01:43 PM ET, 11/18/2011
By Jason Samenow
Inspired by the stunning set of Rock Creek fall foliage photos by Capital Weather Gang’s Ian Livingston (which appeared in the B section of Thursday’s print edition), a number of Post subscribers sent into us some of their best fall shots.
By Jason Samenow |
01:43 PM ET, 11/18/2011 |
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Posted at 10:54 AM ET, 11/18/2011
By Jason Samenow
A report from 220 of the world’s leading climate scientists cautions climate change may bring “unprecendented extreme weather and climate events” in the coming decades. The report by the United Nations Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change makes clear that warm weather extremes and heavy precipitation events have increased, most likely as a result of manmade climate change. And it projects with a high degree of confidence increasing hot weather and heavy downpours in the future.
By Jason Samenow |
10:54 AM ET, 11/18/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/18/2011
By A. Camden Walker
Despite ending the work week — and starting the weekend — on a cool note, we have a couple days of sunshine we should enjoy before a cloudier regime sets in by Sunday. With dryer and fairly crisp air around, we have to contend with swings in temperature for a couple days, so dress in layers, and extra warmly today. Find that winter coat and maybe even that scarf, if you haven’t located them already this season! At least as clouds move in for the end of our weekend and workweek, they have mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s accompanying them.
By A. Camden Walker |
05:00 AM ET, 11/18/2011 |
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Posted at 04:12 PM ET, 11/17/2011
By Jason Samenow
‘Twas a cold, raw day - the kind of day you expect to get from time to time in November. Precipitation was mainly limited to along and east of I-95, where some light rain - mixing with sleet and wet snowflakes in isolated cases - dampened the pavement. Temperatures held in the 40s and gusty winds added quite the chill. Clouds are finally starting to part, paving the way for a cold, clear night.
By Jason Samenow |
04:12 PM ET, 11/17/2011 |
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Posted at 02:13 PM ET, 11/17/2011
By Andrew Freedman
James Hansen, NASA’s chief climate scientist, writes in a new analysis that the burning of fossil fuels has already loaded the “climate dice” in favor of extreme weather and climate events, such as extremely hot summers. If emissions of greenhouse gases are not sharply and swiftly curtailed, he and his colleagues say, all of the sides of the dice will be painted “red”, for “hot.”
By Andrew Freedman |
02:13 PM ET, 11/17/2011 |
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Posted at 12:48 PM ET, 11/17/2011
By Jason Samenow
A frigid Arctic air mass, unusual even by Alaska standards, is dropping the mercury in the state’s interior to unheard of levels in mid-November. Stunningly low temperatures in the -35 to -50 range have gripped the region since Tuesday. These temperatures are some 25 to 40 degrees colder than average.
By Jason Samenow |
12:48 PM ET, 11/17/2011 |
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Posted at 11:11 AM ET, 11/17/2011
By Jason Samenow
As many as 16 tornadoes ripped through the Southeast Wednesday, killing at least six people and injuring dozens. Tornadoes touched down in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, states that have seen more than their share of tornado devastation in 2011.
By Jason Samenow |
11:11 AM ET, 11/17/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/17/2011
By David Streit
Say goodbye to 60-degree warmth. Temperatures today are a good 15 degrees colder (or more) than the last several and it’s windy. Mainly light showers are around and about, and there is a chance, just a chance, that the moisture hangs around enough for a few snowflakes to fall mainly in the north and west suburbs. After today, we start a slow warming trend that runs through the weekend.
By David Streit |
05:00 AM ET, 11/17/2011 |
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Posted at 04:30 PM ET, 11/16/2011
By Ian Livingston
It’s been a dreary day around here, though thankfully it’s not cold (yet) and we have not had any severe weather like places in the South. So I suppose it could be worse! Temperatures have been rather stagnant through the day, with most spots in the upper 50s to near 60 this afternoon. We’ve got more rain to go through, and, before it’s all over, a few folks may even see snowflakes tomorrow.
By Ian Livingston |
04:30 PM ET, 11/16/2011 |
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Posted at 03:23 PM ET, 11/16/2011
By Jason Samenow
The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reports during the five days around Thanksgiving, typically about 10.8 million trips are taken each day, nearly double the daily average. For air, rail, and road travel, inclement weather can create major headaches.
By Jason Samenow |
03:23 PM ET, 11/16/2011 |
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Posted at 12:38 PM ET, 11/16/2011
By Jason Samenow
NBC4’s chief meteorologist Doug Kammerer was the latest of local television prognosticators to issue a winter outlook last night. His conclusion: about the same as everyone else - normal to below normal snowfall is most likely across the region.
By Jason Samenow |
12:38 PM ET, 11/16/2011 |
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Posted at 10:38 AM ET, 11/16/2011
By Don Lipman
No doubt many of you have seen stories during the last few years about the repeated episodes of cold and snow in Western Europe-- and particularly Britain. Last December, some called it the snowiest winter in 25 years and the coldest in over 100 years. On average, Britain’s winter climate is mild and has been so for many decades, probably since the end of the “Little Ice Age” in the 1800s. So what’s going on? Is the Gulf Stream changing?
By Don Lipman |
10:38 AM ET, 11/16/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/16/2011
By Dan Stillman
Take your umbrella and blame a slow-moving cold front for any rain and thunder that gets in your way today into tonight. The day’s not a total dud thanks to highs in the 60s. We’ll lose the rain tonight or tomorrow, but also lose the mild air as winds gust and highs struggle to get much past 50. The cold air remains in place for Friday, before a warming trend carries us through the weekend
By Dan Stillman |
05:00 AM ET, 11/16/2011 |
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Posted at 04:00 PM ET, 11/15/2011
By Jason Samenow
Clouds filled the sky, but we mostly dodged the rain and enjoyed a second straight much warmer than average mid-November day. Until a slow moving cold front exits the region Thursday morning, we’ll stay on the mild side. But it’s highly unlikely rain misses us tomorrow even if the bulk of it waits until late afternoon and into the evening.
By Jason Samenow |
04:00 PM ET, 11/15/2011 |
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Posted at 03:20 PM ET, 11/15/2011
By Jason Samenow
Last month, University of California-Berkeley professor Richard Muller announced his team’s new analysis of temperature records demonstrated 1.8 degrees (F) of land warming since the 1950s. Consistent with these results, the data from NOAA for October 2011 show much above average land temperatures.
By Jason Samenow |
03:20 PM ET, 11/15/2011 |
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Posted at 12:33 PM ET, 11/15/2011
By Greg Postel
A core of exceptionally cold air has recently settled into parts of Northwestern Canada and Alaska. There are times when a temperature map like this one sends shivers down the spines of weather forecasters in the Lower 48. This is because in theory, it doesn’t require an unusual set of circumstances to drive that polar air into the United States. But this time around, the global weather pattern is in a shape that will likely keep most of that arctic air up there for a while.
By Greg Postel |
12:33 PM ET, 11/15/2011 |
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Posted at 10:28 AM ET, 11/15/2011
By Ian Livingston
Rock Creek Park can provide a brief escape from our urban environment without even leaving the city, and it contains glorious autumn displays come peak foliage time. Take a photographic journey through a portion of the park that’s easily accessible to anyone living in or around D.C. to see why fall can’t be beat for wandering among the trees.
By Ian Livingston |
10:28 AM ET, 11/15/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/15/2011
By Matt Rogers
Cloudy skies prevent us from repeating yesterday’s warm 70s, but temperatures are still above normal today as rain showers move into the area. Probability of precipitation increases to 70% this afternoon with likely rain showers again tonight and tomorrow into tomorrow evening. A cold push arrives Wednesday night with a cold Thursday and Friday to follow. A warming trend this weekend could be marred by shower chances later on Sunday.
By Matt Rogers |
05:00 AM ET, 11/15/2011 |
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Posted at 04:00 PM ET, 11/14/2011
By Ian Livingston
How did you like your
trip back to early October with today’s temperatures? I know I did, except that I had to spend most of it indoors! Highs surpassed 70 degrees across most of the area (except mainly near cooler water) thanks to sunshine and a warm breeze from the south. A storm to the west continues sending the mild air over the region through tomorrow, but increased clouds and a risk of rain probably mean today’s temperatures won’t be beat.
By Ian Livingston |
04:00 PM ET, 11/14/2011 |
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Posted at 02:39 PM ET, 11/14/2011
By Jason Samenow
We received 677 submissions for predicting the 2011-2012 snowfall total at Reagan National Airport from readers. The average forecast was for 22” with a median forecast of 19.7”. The highest snowfall prediction was for an epic 91.4” of snow with the lowest a paltry 2.1”. Interestingly, not a single reader predicted we’ll be shutout this winter with no more snow.
By Jason Samenow |
02:39 PM ET, 11/14/2011 |
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Posted at 11:58 AM ET, 11/14/2011
By Ian Livingston
As November progresses, it usually becomes unmistakable that winter is around the corner. The days are short and the landscape begins to turn barren. Cold intrusions become more of a norm than a rarity as well, and on some occasions that cold air combines with moisture to produce an early-season snowfall.
By Ian Livingston |
11:58 AM ET, 11/14/2011 |
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Posted at 10:33 AM ET, 11/14/2011
By Jason Samenow
You’ve got to watch this video of the International Space Station orbiting the Earth.
By Jason Samenow |
10:33 AM ET, 11/14/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/14/2011
By Jason Samenow
November has really let us off easy, with very few wet and/or unpleasantly cold days. Sunny days have dominated. We’ll have to wait until the second half of the week for most of the sun though, as Tuesday and Wednesday are cloudy and wet at times. Today, we won’t see a ton of sunshine, but mild temps make up for it.
By Jason Samenow |
05:00 AM ET, 11/14/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/13/2011
By Matt Rogers
Our fantastic start to the weekend yesterday becomes marred a bit today as clouds cover the sky at times. But the sun should make some appearances as well, and highs in the low-to-mid 60s mean a second straight warmer-than-average day with more to come. The best chance for rain (maybe even t’storms) looks to be Tuesday afternoon or evening into Wednesday morning. Colder weather returns late Wednesday into the latter part of the week.
By Matt Rogers |
05:00 AM ET, 11/13/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/12/2011
By Ian Livingston
Today the average high in D.C. falls below 60 degrees, not to return there again until the end of March. By and large, this is a pretty typical second weekend of November and today’s highs flirt with normal. Though, if we’re trending any direction on the average in the immediate future it is “warmer than.” On top of that, sunshine should be the main story of the weekend, but we’ll have a breeze to contend with as well, and potentially increasing clouds tomorrow. The work week? A mild start at least.
By Ian Livingston |
05:00 AM ET, 11/12/2011 |
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Posted at 04:21 PM ET, 11/11/2011
By Jason Samenow
With afternoon temperatures holding mainly in the 40s, today was the coldest since October 29 when it snowed. And with winds gusting over 30 mph at times, it felt even colder. Winds relax tonight, but it’s quite chilly. Saturday and especially Sunday, afternoon temperatures moderate.
By Jason Samenow |
04:21 PM ET, 11/11/2011 |
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Posted at 02:05 PM ET, 11/11/2011
By Jason Samenow
Look out when giant waves come crashing down. That’s what happened in Chicago 100 years ago when the temperature dropped from a record high of 74 to a frigid 16 in the same day (November 11, 1911). Even more stunning, Springfield nose-dived from 80 to 8 degrees, a precipitous 72 degree drop.
By Jason Samenow |
02:05 PM ET, 11/11/2011 |
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Posted at 12:07 PM ET, 11/11/2011
By Jason Samenow
Over the last several days, I’ve put out a call for readers’ best fall foliage photos and the submissions have blown me away. The set of photos that follows is the season’s best. We are very fortunate to have so many gifted photographers in the D.C. region and following our weather coverage.
By Jason Samenow |
12:07 PM ET, 11/11/2011 |
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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 11/11/2011
By Kevin Ambrose
A foggy fall foliage photo shoot at the Tidal Basin and Mall, November 10, 2011.
By Kevin Ambrose |
10:00 AM ET, 11/11/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/11/2011
By A. Camden Walker
Our recent mild weather has been taken down a notch, but only briefly. Sunshine that’s plentiful today should last through most of the weekend — luckily mitigating some of the bite to any coolness. All in all not a bad Veterans Day, if you are lucky enough to have it off. For us in the private sector who don’t have off until the “real” weekend, well — it is worth the wait as those sunny skies and warmer temperatures look very enticing! Even as clouds move in by Sunday night, heavily blanketing us through Tuesday, temperatures should stay warm. Perhaps 70 at some point?
By A. Camden Walker |
05:00 AM ET, 11/11/2011 |
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Posted at 04:34 PM ET, 11/10/2011
By Jason Samenow
A strong fall cold front has ushered in blustery air more characteristic of the latter half of the month. Late morning high temperatures near 60 are falling through the 40s as rain showers slowly move through and away from the region. Skies will gradually clear tonight, but despite the return of the sun Friday, it promises to be the coldest day since last Saturday.
By Jason Samenow |
04:34 PM ET, 11/10/2011 |
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Posted at 02:53 PM ET, 11/10/2011
By Jason Samenow
As forecasters, we strive to communicate weather information effectively. Sometimes we succeed, sometimes we fail. Either way, we’re committed to making our forecasts as useful as they can be and improving them. But for the delivery of forecasts to be successful, you, the end-user, have a set of responsibilities in interpreting them. I’ve put together a list of five forecast user responsibilities. Read ahead, and let me know if you agree
By Jason Samenow |
02:53 PM ET, 11/10/2011 |
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Posted at 12:45 PM ET, 11/10/2011
By David Streit
Depending where you are in the area, the leaves are at the peak of their brilliance or falling fast! Despite the dry spells and deluges this summer, most of the colors came on pretty nicely. It is an annual delight to see those brilliant yellows of the gingko trees in Georgetown, russet beauty of the oak trees in Takoma Park and glowing oranges of the maple trees that line many of our streets throughout the area. But it is now time to focus on some of the other preparations for the winter season.
By David Streit |
12:45 PM ET, 11/10/2011 |
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Posted at 11:15 AM ET, 11/10/2011
By Jason Samenow
The Bering Sea Superstorm, as deep and intense as many major hurricanes Wednesday, has gradually weakened, but continues raking parts of west and northwest Alaska.
By Jason Samenow |
11:15 AM ET, 11/10/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/10/2011
By David Streit
Today is nothing to write home about but if it is the price to pay for yet another great weekend; so be it. After today, temperatures trend to above normal territory and dry weather resumes. But for those out honoring our courageous veterans tomorrow, bundle up, as brisk winds carry a bite.
By David Streit |
05:00 AM ET, 11/10/2011 |
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Posted at 04:20 PM ET, 11/09/2011
By Ian Livingston
We had a little more wind and a little less rise in temperature today compared to yesterday, but overall it’s been another stellar one across the area. Afternoon readings mainly made it into the mid-60s under a very sunny sky. These warmer than normal times are about done for now, but it looks like any cool down might be pretty temporary.
By Ian Livingston |
04:20 PM ET, 11/09/2011 |
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Posted at 03:23 PM ET, 11/09/2011
By Jason Samenow
On Monday, several large, dangerous tornadoes ripped through southwest Oklahoma. Two of Oklahoma’s 120 automated weather stations in its “Mesonet” stood in the way and were taken out. But they recorded valuable data in the process demonstrating jaw-dropping pressure drops and wind accelerations.
By Jason Samenow |
03:23 PM ET, 11/09/2011 |
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Posted at 12:12 PM ET, 11/09/2011
By Jason Samenow
A storm of historic intensity continues to pound the west coast of Alaska today. Twice the size of Texas, the storm is as deep as a category 3 hurricane. The National Weather Service is calling it a “life-threatening epic storm” due to its dangerous combination of towering waves (observed at 40 feet in the Bering Sea), hurricane-force winds, storm surge flooding, and blinding snow.
By Jason Samenow |
12:12 PM ET, 11/09/2011 |
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Posted at 10:20 AM ET, 11/09/2011
By Justin Grieser
An unusual, stubborn low pressure system in the Mediterranean Sea has brought heavy rain and tropical storm-like conditions to parts of Italy and southern France over the past week. Torrential rains have inundated coastal regions and caused disastrous flooding in inland towns at higher elevations.
By Justin Grieser |
10:20 AM ET, 11/09/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/09/2011
By Dan Stillman
Yesterday marked our eighth consecutive day with no precipitation at Reagan National Airport. That’s the longest such streak at National since July 26-Aug. 2. If we avoid any rain through midnight tonight, then we’ll extend the streak to nine days - the longest since Feb. 11-19. What about temperatures? We’re mild again today, then colder and increasingly windy Thursday and Friday, before a warmer and mostly sunny weekend.
By Dan Stillman |
05:00 AM ET, 11/09/2011 |
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Posted at 04:39 PM ET, 11/08/2011
By Jason Samenow
A 40-degree temperature swing in one day? That’s what some of our colder suburbs achieved today. Temperature that began the day below freezing charged to a sunny 70 degrees this afternoon. Is a repeat possible Wednesday? You bet.
By Jason Samenow |
04:39 PM ET, 11/08/2011 |
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Posted at 03:07 PM ET, 11/08/2011
By Greg Postel
During the past few days, a new weather pattern has emerged that will likely stick around for the next one to two weeks at least. It will feature a strikingly different temperature and rainfall distribution than experienced during much of October.
By Greg Postel |
03:07 PM ET, 11/08/2011 |
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Posted at 01:10 PM ET, 11/08/2011
By Jason Samenow
The largest asteroid to come this close to Earth since 1976 will zip past Earth tonight at 30,000 mph, just inside the moon’s orbit. The closest pass to Earth will occur at 6:28 p.m. ET
By Jason Samenow |
01:10 PM ET, 11/08/2011 |
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Posted at 11:00 AM ET, 11/08/2011
By Jason Samenow
A ferocious, dangerous storm in the north Pacific is on a collision course with the west coast of Alaska. Referred to as the “Bering Sea Superstorm” by the National Weather Service Office in Fairbanks (NWS), damaging winds, severe beach erosion and major coastal flooding are expected. In some locations, heavy snow and blizzard conditions are also forecast.
By Jason Samenow |
11:00 AM ET, 11/08/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/08/2011
By Matt Rogers
Even though the mornings still have some chill in the air, the afternoon sunshine and light breezes feel great today and tomorrow. Temperatures move up through the 60s with a chance to even touch 70 in spots. The next cold front approaches by Thursday with clouds, some showers, and a shift to a colder Veteran’s Day.
By Matt Rogers |
05:00 AM ET, 11/08/2011 |
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Posted at 04:15 PM ET, 11/07/2011
By Ian Livingston
If only this was not a Monday and the first work day of the “dark season.” The few minutes I was able to spend outside were pretty fantastic! Highs this afternoon have reached the mid-60s most spots, even nudging on the upper 60s downtown. We’ve got a near copy tomorrow with temperatures likely a smidge higher.
By Ian Livingston |
04:15 PM ET, 11/07/2011 |
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Posted at 03:18 PM ET, 11/07/2011
By Jason Samenow
In the heart of tornado alley, Oklahoma is no stranger to mother nature’s wrath. But in 2011, extreme environmental conditions have risen to another level, with records set for a potpourri of natural hazards including earthquakes, heat, cold, wind, hail, and snow!
By Jason Samenow |
03:18 PM ET, 11/07/2011 |
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Posted at 01:07 PM ET, 11/07/2011
By Jason Samenow
After Snowtober the weekend before, this past weekend’s extended dose of sunshine was a worthwhile tradeoff. The crystal blue skies contrasted stunningly with foliage near its peak in many parts of the Washington, D.C. metro region.
By Jason Samenow |
01:07 PM ET, 11/07/2011 |
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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 11/07/2011
By Andrew Freedman
NASA researchers flying low over Antarctica’s vast, frozen landscape recently stumbled across a rare event in progress: the calving of a massive iceberg from one of Antarctica’s largest and fastest-moving glaciers. The scientists, who were taking part in NASA’s “Operation IceBridge,” were able to fly a follow-up mission above the rift in the Pine Island Glacier to gather unprecedented airborne measurements of the process of forming an iceberg larger than the city of New York.
By Andrew Freedman |
10:30 AM ET, 11/07/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/07/2011
By Jason Samenow
Normally, I associate November with blustery winds, gray skies, and raw rain. This week, we’ll have little weather of that sort. Instead, skies will generally be sunny, with several days of unseasonably mild weather, including tomorrow, Wednesday, and possibly Sunday. The only chance of showers is some time late Wednesday or during the day Thursday.
By Jason Samenow |
05:00 AM ET, 11/07/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/06/2011
By Camden Walker
It’s hard to complain about this pretty sweet, albeit somewhat cool, weather pattern we’re in. And for those who like it a little warmer, well we’ve got good news on that front as well, with highs possibly nearing 70 as we head into the middle part of our week. Splendid fall weather is here for an extended stay! Just plan to get out and enjoy before the sun sets, now an hour earlier.
By Camden Walker |
05:00 AM ET, 11/06/2011 |
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Posted at 04:55 AM ET, 11/06/2011
By Ian Livingston
This is football weather, from sun-filled tailgating to the encroaching early evening of the end of daylight saving time. Temperatures are pretty similar at start and finish but they may peak in the upper 50s to near 60 somewhere during play.
By Ian Livingston |
04:55 AM ET, 11/06/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/05/2011
By Ian Livingston
If you can handle temperatures running a bit below normal, there’s not a whole lot to worry about this weekend. A breeze that’s still fairly noticeable today begins to diminish during the afternoon. By tomorrow it should be rather light and beginning to pump in some warmer air from the south. Into Monday we flip back warmer than normal and that looks to continue through a good part of the work week. We’ll also see a whole lot more clear skies than clouds for the next several days.
By Ian Livingston |
05:00 AM ET, 11/05/2011 |
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Posted at 03:58 PM ET, 11/04/2011
By Jason Samenow
The morning clouds have departed and breezes are gradually fading. Afternoon temperatures reached 55-60, slightly cooler than average. Temperatures this weekend will continue below average, but, relative to last weekend, it’s a perfect 10. Skies stand to be mostly clear all weekend long.
By Jason Samenow |
03:58 PM ET, 11/04/2011 |
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Posted at 03:09 PM ET, 11/04/2011
By Jason Samenow
For those within about 20 miles of the District, you won’t need to leave your backyard for some of the region’s best fall color this weekend.
By Jason Samenow |
03:09 PM ET, 11/04/2011 |
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Posted at 12:52 PM ET, 11/04/2011
By Steve Tracton
A major sunspot is presently emerging on the surface of the solar disk facing Earth. According Jess Whittington at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), the huge and still growing sunspot is the most active part of the sun since 2005. The area, being referred to as a “benevolent monster” generated a solar flare which shot out a burst of charged particles but - this time -was not aimed at Earth.
By Steve Tracton |
12:52 PM ET, 11/04/2011 |
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Posted at 10:33 AM ET, 11/04/2011
By Justin Grieser
This year daylight saving time (DST) ends at 2 a.m. on Sunday, November 6, which means we move our clocks back one hour and return to standard time. The good news is we get a 25-hour day (and an extra hour of sleep). The bad news: it will get dark even earlier in the evening.
By Justin Grieser |
10:33 AM ET, 11/04/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/04/2011
By A. Camden Walker
We have some sunny, dry days ahead to get outdoors and really “cash in” on autumn! Our main worry is this morning’s potential cloud issue. Temperatures are also not particularly warm for now, especially if breezes catch you in the shade today or tomorrow. But come Sunday and into next work week, as our dry and mainly sunny streak continues, breezes die and temperatures rise toward a comfortable 70 degrees again. Looking forward to it? I am!
By A. Camden Walker |
05:00 AM ET, 11/04/2011 |
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Posted at 04:01 PM ET, 11/03/2011
By Jason Samenow
November is on a roll. For the third straight day sun outdid the clouds and we climbed to 60 or better. A weather system passing by to the south increases clouds tonight into Friday morning, but the sun should make a brilliant return to close out the work week.
By Jason Samenow |
04:01 PM ET, 11/03/2011 |
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Posted at 02:07 PM ET, 11/03/2011
By Jason Samenow
So far, our freshly issued winter outlook has generated few complaints. By the responses we’ve culled together on Facebook, Twitter, and this blog, it seems many are enthusiastic about the possibility that the coming winter may be snowier than last year. And, impressively, more than 500 of you have entered our snowfall prediction contest.
By Jason Samenow |
02:07 PM ET, 11/03/2011 |
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Posted at 10:51 AM ET, 11/03/2011
By Matt Ross
For snow lovers hoping for a repeat of the epic 2009-10 winter, you will probably be disappointed. This winter is much more likely to be similar to last winter, when 10.1” fell, than the record-setting 56.1” of 2009-10. But we don’t imagine this winter will be a dud either. It’s unlikely to be as cold as last winter, but we are not favoring a warm winter either. Furthermore, we have a good chance of matching or exceeding the snow totals of last winter at all three airports.
By Matt Ross |
10:51 AM ET, 11/03/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/03/2011
By David Streit
Today is the kind of day that gives fall a good name! And better yet, we go back to our pattern of beautiful weekends. It will be a bit brisk , but all the better for those outdoor tasks like leaf raking. Of course, the best treat is not really weather related, but an extra hour of sleep on Saturday night as we return to standard time.
By David Streit |
05:00 AM ET, 11/03/2011 |
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Posted at 04:15 PM ET, 11/02/2011
By Ian Livingston
If I could bottle up a day like today and unleash it during colder times ahead, I surely would. This is why almost everyone loves fall! Highs have neared and surpassed 60 degrees across most of the area this afternoon under beautiful blue skies. Best yet: we’ve got good news for tomorrow if you liked today…
By Ian Livingston |
04:15 PM ET, 11/02/2011 |
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Posted at 03:28 PM ET, 11/02/2011
By Jason Samenow
Deja Vu for Denver. After six inches of heavy, wet snow weighed down the mile high city last Tuesday night and Wednesday, six inches of more powdery flakes stacked up exactly one week later.
By Jason Samenow |
03:28 PM ET, 11/02/2011 |
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Posted at 01:13 PM ET, 11/02/2011
By Jason Samenow
Tomorrow, Capital Weather Gang will release its 2011-2012 winter outlook. Before we let you in our predictions for winter, we want to give you an opportunity to make a forecast. So tell us, to the nearest tenth of an inch, how much snow will fall this winter at Reagan National Airport?
By Jason Samenow |
01:13 PM ET, 11/02/2011 |
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Posted at 11:23 AM ET, 11/02/2011
By Don Lipman
OK, so we had some snow in parts of our area last month (just a trace at Reagan National and .6 of an inch at Dulles), now that it’s November, we could have some more. Time will tell. (I don’t do the forecasting on this blog.) But what does October snow mean, if anything, for the rest of the winter as a whole? Curiosity got the best of me and, although it’s been done many times before, I decided to do some of my own research.
By Don Lipman |
11:23 AM ET, 11/02/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/02/2011
By Dan Stillman
November has started on a much less ridiculous note than October ended, and that remains the case through the weekend. Instead of tracking a way-too-early-in-the-season snow threat like last week, this week we’re mostly basking in sunshine and temperatures right around average.
By Dan Stillman |
05:00 AM ET, 11/02/2011 |
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Posted at 06:48 PM ET, 11/01/2011
By Jason Samenow
When we planned the release of our winter outlook for the first week of November, little did we know the season’s first winter storm would occur before then! To sum up our forecasting performance for Snowtober (October 29), we were overly skeptical of a snow event prior to two days before the storm struck, but did a very good job of forecasting the storm within 48 hours.
By Jason Samenow |
06:48 PM ET, 11/01/2011 |
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Posted at 04:12 PM ET, 11/01/2011
By Jason Samenow
We’ve entered a quiet period for the weather with mainly sunny, day and clear, cold nights. Partial cloudiness filled the afternoon skies, but we still climbed to near 60. Skies clear out tonight and sunshine dominates Wednesday and likely Thursday as well.
By Jason Samenow |
04:12 PM ET, 11/01/2011 |
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Posted at 02:07 PM ET, 11/01/2011
By Matt Rogers
Looking back at October, the freakish snow event that hit the Northeast hard and grazed our region stands out most. The region experienced its first marginally measurable snowfall in October since 1979.
By Matt Rogers |
02:07 PM ET, 11/01/2011 |
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Posted at 11:39 AM ET, 11/01/2011
By Jason Samenow
Was the weekend’s “epic” storm in the Northeast part of a long-term trend? It’s certainly not inconsistent with the region’s experience in recent years. Data from the National Climatic Data Center indicate heavy cold season (October to March) precipitation events are intensifying.
By Jason Samenow |
11:39 AM ET, 11/01/2011 |
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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/01/2011
By Matt Rogers
Mostly cloudy morning skies break open to sunnier skies by midday and especially afternoon. A slow climb in temperatures is seen with mostly mid-to-upper 50s today, near 60 tomorrow, and low-to-mid 60s by Thursday. Clouds and showers menace our Friday, but a mostly sunny weekend should follow with 60s for highs at least on Sunday.
By Matt Rogers |
05:00 AM ET, 11/01/2011 |
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