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The Monkey Cage: July, 2014

Posted at 02:29 PM ET, 07/31/2014

The GCC’s national employment challenge

There are jobs for everyone in the Gulf, but who pays?

By Steffen Hertog  |  02:29 PM ET, 07/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Bahrain, Employment, GCC, Government, Oman, Saudi Arabia

Posted at 11:02 AM ET, 07/31/2014

The political limits of Grecovery

Multiple elections reveal that polarized and volatile politics reign in Greece. What does the future hold?

By Harris Mylonas and Akis Georgakellos  |  11:02 AM ET, 07/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report, Electoral Report, Greece

Posted at 10:01 AM ET, 07/31/2014

More hype about political attitudes and neuroscience

Can journalists report on new research without disparaging our current understanding of reality?

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:01 AM ET, 07/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Liberals and Conservatives, Personality

Posted at 01:31 AM ET, 07/31/2014

The lawsuit rolls forward

The specifics of the House lawsuit fall short of the rhetoric - but the courts are still a strange venue for legislative leadership.

By Andrew Rudalevige  |  01:31 AM ET, 07/31/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 04:22 PM ET, 07/30/2014

Does Western pressure for gender equality help?

Do anti-American attitudes undermine the efforts of local reformers? Maybe not.

By Sarah Bush and Amaney Jamal  |  04:22 PM ET, 07/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Democracy Promotion, Gender Equality, Jordan, United States

Posted at 01:10 PM ET, 07/30/2014

One split, two Sudans and the effects of three years of independence

A Q&A with James Copnall, author of “A Poisonous Thorn in Our Hearts.“

By Laura Seay  |  01:10 PM ET, 07/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics Summer Reading Spectacular

Posted at 12:27 PM ET, 07/30/2014

Scottish independence vote is too close to call

Despite polling pointing towards a victory for the No campaign in Scotland, our forecasting model suggests that the result is still too close to call.

By Arkadiusz Wiśniowski  |  12:27 PM ET, 07/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election Report, Scotland

Posted at 10:59 AM ET, 07/30/2014

Gaza and the U.N.’s dilemmas of protection

The protection of civilians has become a core priority for the United Nations. But there are limits to what can be achieved.

By Alex J. Bellamy  |  10:59 AM ET, 07/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Israel-Palestine, Responsibility To Protect, United Nations

Posted at 04:33 AM ET, 07/30/2014

Might Get Fooled Again? — The Senate and Surveillance

Civil libertarians like the Senate surveillance reform bill - but they should be careful what they wish for.

By H.L. Pohlman  |  04:33 AM ET, 07/30/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  intelligence community, NSA, phone records, Senate, Surveillance

Posted at 11:50 AM ET, 07/29/2014

Political science after Gaza

Political scientists are about to get a whole lot of interesting new research questions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

By Marc Lynch  |  11:50 AM ET, 07/29/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Gaza, Israel-Palestine, Political Science

Posted at 10:06 AM ET, 07/29/2014

Failing to forecast the Israeli-Palestinian crisis

The resumption of violence between Israel and Hamas can hardly be considered a surprise. But was this conflict predictable?

By Charles Kurzman  |  10:06 AM ET, 07/29/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Conflict Forecasting, Iranian Revolution, Israel-Palestine

Posted at 08:02 AM ET, 07/29/2014

Are French Muslims integrated? Depends on what you mean by integration

When investigating the “integration” of Muslims in France, it is important to keep in mind that embracing the nation and being embraced by it are two very different things.

By Jennifer Fredette  |  08:02 AM ET, 07/29/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Europe, France

Posted at 02:50 PM ET, 07/28/2014

Paying for Israel’s wars

Why Israel’s poorest citizens don’t mind huge defense budgets.

By Jonathan Caverley  |  02:50 PM ET, 07/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Defense Spending, Gaza, Israel, Israel-Palestine, Military, Taxes

Posted at 01:04 PM ET, 07/28/2014

A purple, or even blue, Georgia? Not yet.

Despite racial change, Georgia looks more like South Carolina than Virginia

By Ben Highton  |  01:04 PM ET, 07/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 12:28 PM ET, 07/28/2014

What’s behind Libya’s spiraling violence?

In a region with no shortage of human catastrophes, Libya seems determined to elbow its way into the headlines. But conventional readings of the country’s politics misdiagnose the problem.

By Frederic Wehrey  |  12:28 PM ET, 07/28/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Khalifa Hifter, Libya, Militias

Posted at 08:01 AM ET, 07/26/2014

Will Eastern Ukraine turn into Northern Ireland?

Guerilla war with continued external support may turn the armed conflict in Donbas into a long-term quagmire for Ukraine.

By Serhiy Kudelia  |  08:01 AM ET, 07/26/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Civil Conflict, Civil War, Ukraine

Posted at 02:59 PM ET, 07/25/2014

‘Missing Words’: The week in one song

The ACA returns to court.

By Christopher Federico  |  02:59 PM ET, 07/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Health Care, The Week in One Song

Posted at 12:26 PM ET, 07/25/2014

Proxy war can have dangerous consequences

States often try to wage war surreptitiously through secretly helping insurgent groups. This strategy can go badly wrong, even when the state tries to retain control.

By Erica D. Borghard  |  12:26 PM ET, 07/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  International Security, Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 11:22 AM ET, 07/25/2014

Does the sex of your child affect your political attitudes?

If the effect is small and variation is large, conventional data analysis using “statistical significance” can fool you, and there’s no substitute for looking at new data.

By Andrew Gelman  |  11:22 AM ET, 07/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Children, Methodology, Political attitudes

Posted at 11:16 AM ET, 07/25/2014

Why David Perdue is the favorite against Michelle Nunn in Georgia

Sonny Perdue’s cousin has significant advantages against Sam Nunn’s daughter

By Ben Highton  |  11:16 AM ET, 07/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 10:26 AM ET, 07/25/2014

Putin in July (or the fight for Russia’s soul)

The intellectual community in Russia and abroad is joining the fight for Putin to change course and get out of Eastern Ukraine.

By Elizabeth A. Wood  |  10:26 AM ET, 07/25/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  putin, Ukraine

Posted at 10:36 PM ET, 07/24/2014

Obama’s uphill struggle against economic inequality

Yes, he’s reduced it. And yes, it’s still increasing.

By Larry Bartels  |  10:36 PM ET, 07/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Political Economy

Posted at 12:42 PM ET, 07/24/2014

It’s still not easy being Muslim in Europe, particularly in France

A broader view of the contours of Muslim integration in Europe following yesterday’s post, “Some good news about Muslims in Europe.“

By Kim Yi Dionne  |  12:42 PM ET, 07/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Europe

Posted at 10:01 AM ET, 07/24/2014

Meritocracy won’t happen: the problem’s with the ‘ocracy’

In a meritocracy, the whole point of having “merit” is that you can run things (“ocracy”), and one of the points of running things is that you can get nice things for your family and friends.

By Andrew Gelman  |  10:01 AM ET, 07/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Inequality, Meritocracy

Posted at 08:48 AM ET, 07/24/2014

Don’t expect campaign finance reform to reduce polarization

Could strengthening parties reduce polarization? Maybe not.

By Thomas Mann and Anthony Corrado  |  08:48 AM ET, 07/24/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:02 AM ET, 07/23/2014

Is there a role for NATO in Ukraine?

With Ukraine at its doorstep, NATO faces a unique opportunity to resolve a crisis in its neighborhood.

By Heidi Hardt  |  11:02 AM ET, 07/23/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  MH-17, Ukraine

Posted at 09:59 AM ET, 07/23/2014

Why Germans are angry about U.S. spying

There is a palpable sense of betrayal in Germany over this, across the political spectrum.

By Andreas Busch  |  09:59 AM ET, 07/23/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Europe, Surveillance

Posted at 09:50 AM ET, 07/23/2014

Why jogging or going to church can get you arrested (in Burundi)

Recent moves by Burundi’s political leaders threaten citizens’ right to assemble, stifle opposition ahead of 2015 election.

By Cara E. Jones  |  09:50 AM ET, 07/23/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics

Posted at 06:43 PM ET, 07/22/2014

The Senate’s partisan fever (in 4 charts)

The November elections aren’t likely to cure it.

By Sarah Binder  |  06:43 PM ET, 07/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Congress, Senate, stalemate

Posted at 06:06 PM ET, 07/22/2014

Some good news about Muslims in Europe

It is easy to believe that Muslims are having trouble integrating into European societies, however, survey evidence from France indicates that this is less of a problem than commonly suggested.

By Erik Bleich and Rahsaan Maxwell  |  06:06 PM ET, 07/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  France, Islamic Fundamentalism, Religion

Posted at 04:06 PM ET, 07/22/2014

‘Foreign Fighters’ for Israel

Thousands of foreign ‘Lone Soldiers’ are serving in the Israeli military. Are these soldiers comparable to al-Qaeda-inspired jihadis or the volunteer brigades who joined the Spanish Civil War?

By David Malet  |  04:06 PM ET, 07/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Foreign Fighters, Israeli, Military, United States

Posted at 01:52 PM ET, 07/22/2014

Are conflicts over citizenship inevitable in Africa?

What five African cases teach us about identity politics and belonging in Africa.

By Edmond J. Keller  |  01:52 PM ET, 07/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics Summer Reading Spectacular

Posted at 10:44 AM ET, 07/22/2014

Did Russian personnel help take down MH17?

History shows that covert efforts to provide sophisticated weapons to warring parties often slides into active participation: This suggests that Russians may not only have provided anti-aircraft weapons to Ukrainian rebels, but personnel to man them, too.

By Austin Carson  |  10:44 AM ET, 07/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 10:37 AM ET, 07/22/2014

MH17 won’t change our relationship with Russia since there isn’t really any relationship worth talking about

Neither the U.S. nor Russia see anything valuable in their relationship with each other. This makes it likelier that the Ukraine conflict will continue.

By James Goldgeier  |  10:37 AM ET, 07/22/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 05:35 PM ET, 07/21/2014

Why the MH-17 tragedy won’t moderate the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Hopes that the MH-17 tragedy will turn the conflict toward resolution are unlikely to be realized.

By Paul D'Anieri  |  05:35 PM ET, 07/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 05:04 PM ET, 07/21/2014

Who is to blame for Iraq’s problems?

To understand the current situation in Iraq, look at U.S. policies prior to the 2003 invasion.

By Sinan Antoon and Zaid Al-Ali  |  05:04 PM ET, 07/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Iraq, Maliki, U.S. Foreign Policy

Posted at 01:56 PM ET, 07/21/2014

MH17 is a tragedy, not a game-changer

Putin still sees Ukraine as a crucial national interest after the MH17 tragedy. He is almost certainly prepared to endure the pain of sanctions.

By James Goldgeier  |  01:56 PM ET, 07/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 12:21 PM ET, 07/21/2014

When do politicians respond to voters and when do they respond to markets?

Research from 20 advanced capitalist democracies shows that while political parties have incentives to respond to voter preferences, they only do so when the national economy is sufficiently sheltered from the world economy.

By Lawrence Ezrow and Timothy Hellwig  |  12:21 PM ET, 07/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Political Economy

Posted at 10:02 AM ET, 07/21/2014

Government data exaggerate the increase in terrorist attacks

Here’s why the government’s data are flawed, and what better data tell us.

By Robert Pape, Keven Ruby and Vincent Bauer  |  10:02 AM ET, 07/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Terrorism

Posted at 09:50 AM ET, 07/21/2014

Why the Ukraine separatists screwed up: Badly organized insurgents can’t master complex weapons systems

Many insurgent organizations don’t have the internal institutions that would allow them to really use complex modern weapons systems. This helps explain why Flight 17 was shot down.

By Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich  |  09:50 AM ET, 07/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 08:01 AM ET, 07/21/2014

Want to reduce polarization? Give parties more money.

Campaign finance rules that empower political parties could lessen polarization.

By Ray LaRaja and Brian Schaffner  |  08:01 AM ET, 07/21/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 03:24 PM ET, 07/20/2014

Putin’s grand strategy is failing

Empowering armed proxies in Ukraine has only weakened Russia.

By Joshua Rovner  |  03:24 PM ET, 07/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:42 AM ET, 07/20/2014

What do citizens of Ukraine actually think about secession?

Ending the Ukrainian civil war will involve cutting through propaganda from both sides. New public opinion data on attitudes in South-Eastern Ukraine can help do this.

By Ivan Katchanovski  |  11:42 AM ET, 07/20/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 10:32 PM ET, 07/18/2014

Does the Gaza operation threaten Netanyahu’s political future?

While rightist rivals were demanding a full-scale invasion and occupation of Gaza, Netanyahu showed restraint. Will it affect the next election?

By Brent E. Sasley  |  10:32 PM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Elections, Hamas, Israel, Israel-Palestine

Posted at 03:29 PM ET, 07/18/2014

Will the Malaysia Airlines tragedy change the trajectory of events in Ukraine?

It is possible that the Malaysian airlines tragedy could bring about a deescalation of hostilities in Ukraine. But not likely.

By Oxana Shevel  |  03:29 PM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 03:01 PM ET, 07/18/2014

The jihadist governance dilemma

After making astounding territorial gains in its war against the Iraqi government the Islamic State declared a caliphate. But can jihadists govern?

By Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Amichai Magen  |  03:01 PM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Governance, Iraq, Islamic State, Jihadists, Syria

Posted at 02:48 PM ET, 07/18/2014

‘Sacrifice’: The week in one song

War once again rears its head in the Mideast.

By Christopher Federico  |  02:48 PM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  The Week in One Song

Posted at 01:05 PM ET, 07/18/2014

The free market is an impossible utopia

Karl Polanyi died decades ago, but his ideas about the economy help us understand both the causes of the economic crisis and its aftermath

By Henry Farrell  |  01:05 PM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Book Interviews, Political Economy

Posted at 11:03 AM ET, 07/18/2014

Reagan and KAL 007

In 1983, Reagan told his NSC: “Vengeance isn’t the name of the game.“

By Andrew Rudalevige  |  11:03 AM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Malaysian airliner, Obama, Reagan, Russia, Ukraine

Posted at 08:49 AM ET, 07/18/2014

Will Indonesia’s presidential election be stolen?

Both candidates in Indonesia’s recent presidential election have claimed victory. The loser may not go quietly.

By Tom Pepinsky  |  08:49 AM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Election, Indonesia

Posted at 08:23 AM ET, 07/18/2014

Financing Africa’s democratic opposition

New book shows how some African leaders manage to hold onto power and why their opponents don’t (or can’t) work together to defeat them.

By Leonardo Arriola  |  08:23 AM ET, 07/18/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics Summer Reading Spectacular

Posted at 10:09 PM ET, 07/17/2014

Was the downing of the Malaysian Air flight accidental?

There is an unfortunate history of even well-trained militaries shooting down the wrong plane.

By Austin Long  |  10:09 PM ET, 07/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 04:37 PM ET, 07/17/2014

How Islam mattered in the Arab uprisings

The Arab Spring was not a secular or anti-religious movement. But it wasn’t the mosque that brought people to the square.

By Michael Hoffman and Amaney Jamal  |  04:37 PM ET, 07/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Arab Spring, Egypt, Islam, Tunisia

Posted at 02:30 PM ET, 07/17/2014

Europe may get a lot tougher on Russia sanctions

E.U. member states like Italy have been resisting tough sanctions against Russia. They’re going to find it harder to maintain resistance if Russia-sponsored rebels are indeed responsible for the loss of the Malaysia Airlines flight.

By Henry Farrell  |  02:30 PM ET, 07/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ukraine

Posted at 11:08 AM ET, 07/17/2014

The Election Lab midterm forecast, explained

Here’s more about our forecast and why it sometimes differs from others.

By John Sides  |  11:08 AM ET, 07/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 08:15 AM ET, 07/17/2014

What the new bank of BRICS is all about

The BRICS countries economic development has outpaced their influence in global institutions. Now they are going their own way.

By Raj M. Desai and James Raymond Vreeland  |  08:15 AM ET, 07/17/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  BRICS

Posted at 12:40 PM ET, 07/16/2014

Rockets and bombs make Israelis and Palestinians less willing to compromise

New research demonstrates that right-wing parties that typically oppose concessions to the Palestinians do better in parts of Israel exposed to rocket attacks from Gaza.

By Anna Getmansky and Thomas Zeitzoff  |  12:40 PM ET, 07/16/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  International Relations, Middle-East, Violence, Voting, War

Posted at 02:56 PM ET, 07/15/2014

Why West African governments are struggling in response to Ebola

Weak health infrastructure, suspicion of government health initiatives, and a virus that doesn’t respect national borders poses serious challenge to West African governments.

By Kim Yi Dionne  |  02:56 PM ET, 07/15/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics, Global Health, Public Health

Posted at 01:56 PM ET, 07/15/2014

How civilians protect themselves nonviolently during mass killings

How do civilians protect themselves during mass atrocity events without resorting to violence?

By Laura Seay  |  01:56 PM ET, 07/15/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Mass atrocities

Posted at 11:40 AM ET, 07/15/2014

New Election Lab forecast suggests 86 percent chance that GOP wins Senate

Republicans continue to have a very good chance of taking the Senate and holding the House.

By John Sides  |  11:40 AM ET, 07/15/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 08:01 AM ET, 07/15/2014

How to mobilize reluctant voters

Research shows what works, and surprisingly doesn’t work, in getting reluctant voters to the polls.

By Melissa Michelson  |  08:01 AM ET, 07/15/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 03:46 PM ET, 07/14/2014

Is ranking failed or fragile states a futile business?

A popular and widely used ranking of failed states has been rebranded but still could be improved.

By Lionel Beehner and Joseph Young  |  03:46 PM ET, 07/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Failed states

Posted at 02:27 PM ET, 07/14/2014

Arabs do care about Gaza

Have Arabs really stopped caring about Palestine? Not according to Twitter.

By Marc Lynch  |  02:27 PM ET, 07/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Gaza, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Twitter

Posted at 10:11 AM ET, 07/14/2014

Does nuclear blackmail work?

Our recent academic study suggests that on average attempts at nuclear blackmail are no more successful than non-nuclear efforts

By Todd S. Sechser and Matthew Fuhrmann  |  10:11 AM ET, 07/14/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Nuclear Weapons

Posted at 03:48 PM ET, 07/11/2014

How U.S. hypocrisy is hurting relations with Germany

Germany has asked the CIA station head in Berlin to leave. This shows how U.S. hypocrisy can systematically hurt relations with its key democratic allies.

By Henry Farrell  |  03:48 PM ET, 07/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Europe, Surveillance

Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 07/11/2014

The ‘price’ of radical flanks and the conflict in Gaza

Once the current round of fighting winds down, “price tag” and similar incidents are likely to spark future Israeli-Palestinian conflicts.

By Peter Krause and Ehud Eiran  |  10:30 AM ET, 07/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Israel, Palestians, Price Tag, Settlers

Posted at 10:25 AM ET, 07/11/2014

‘The Border Song (Holy Moses)’: The week in one song

The border crisis surges.

By Christopher Federico  |  10:25 AM ET, 07/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Immigration, The Week in One Song

Posted at 09:50 AM ET, 07/11/2014

The ‘documentary big bang’ in nuclear weapons scholarship

How to turn lots of new data into meaningful insights about nuclear weapons.

By Matthew Connelly  |  09:50 AM ET, 07/11/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Nuclear Weapons

Posted at 02:04 PM ET, 07/10/2014

What’s the value of early Senate polls?

At this point, there is still value in combining polls with forecasting models.

By John Sides  |  02:04 PM ET, 07/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:37 AM ET, 07/10/2014

Ireland’s Garth Brooks crisis

Garth Brooks is threatening to cancel all five dates of his new tour in Ireland. The underlying conflict involves both local politics and a game of chicken.

By Henry Farrell  |  11:37 AM ET, 07/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Politics in Everything

Posted at 09:49 AM ET, 07/10/2014

Road building, not state building, can solve the Somali pirate problem

Preventing Somali piracy costs billions of dollars every year. Building roads might be a surprisingly effective way of stopping it.

By Anja Shortland and Federico Varese  |  09:49 AM ET, 07/10/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics, Political Economy

Posted at 05:38 PM ET, 07/09/2014

Could Brazil’s World Cup loss really affect the coming presidential election?

We discuss the topic with a political scientist who has studied the effect of sporting events on election results.

By Joshua Tucker  |  05:38 PM ET, 07/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 04:14 PM ET, 07/09/2014

The threat or promise of justice in Palestine

The International Criminal Court won’t produce peace in Palestine, but it could add a degree of accountability.

By Mark Kersten  |  04:14 PM ET, 07/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  International Criminal Court, Israel, Palestine

Posted at 01:07 PM ET, 07/09/2014

What can Obama expect from his last Congress?

In the last century, congressional activity in two-term presidents’ last two years is not non-existent, but tends to be event-driven and non-legislative, with little evidence of any effort to enact a president’s legislative program.

By David R. Mayhew and Matthew I. Bettinger  |  01:07 PM ET, 07/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 08:52 AM ET, 07/09/2014

The return of our most political singer: Morrissey

Morrissey is back with “World Peace is None of Your Business.”

By Stephen Benedict Dyson  |  08:52 AM ET, 07/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Entertainment

Posted at 07:09 AM ET, 07/09/2014

How worried should U.S. policymakers be about nuclear blackmail?

Even if states rarely use nuclear weapons to coerce others, policymakers should worry about rare events with catastrophic implications.

By Colin H. Kahl  |  07:09 AM ET, 07/09/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Nuclear Weapons

Posted at 04:15 PM ET, 07/08/2014

Audit the Fed … on steroids

Some Republicans want to curtail the Fed’s discretion in setting monetary policy. Not even “Audit the Fed” goes that far.

By Sarah Binder  |  04:15 PM ET, 07/08/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Congress, Federal Reserve, monetary policy, Republicans

Posted at 01:01 PM ET, 07/08/2014

What do policymakers want from academic experts on nuclear proliferation?

Academic experts have much of value to add to policy debates but must be more cognizant of the limits of their judgments.

By Peter Feaver  |  01:01 PM ET, 07/08/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Nuclear Weapons

Posted at 12:47 PM ET, 07/08/2014

Lebron, make up your mind quickly!

Game theory suggests that Lebron James would be better off making up his mind sooner rather than later.

By Joshua Tucker  |  12:47 PM ET, 07/08/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Sports

Posted at 12:02 PM ET, 07/08/2014

What new academic research can teach us about nuclear weapons

This symposium assembles the thoughts of eminent historians and political scientists on what recent academic research can teach us about nuclear weapons

By Francis J. Gavin  |  12:02 PM ET, 07/08/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Nuclear Weapons

Posted at 01:01 PM ET, 07/07/2014

The logic of violence in the Islamic State’s war

It is a revolutionary actor and there is nothing particularly Islamic or jihadi about its violence.

By Stathis N. Kalyvas  |  01:01 PM ET, 07/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Civil War, Iraq, ISIS, Syria

Posted at 10:10 AM ET, 07/07/2014

Moderates are scared to run for Congress

A polarized Congress makes moderates less likely to run for office than liberals and conservatives.

By John Sides  |  10:10 AM ET, 07/07/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 05:15 PM ET, 07/03/2014

Looking to a lawsuit: Signing statements and the Supreme Court

If the House sues about signing statements, it may find the president has a ringer on the Court.

By Tobias Gibson  |  05:15 PM ET, 07/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Boehner, lawsuit, presidential power, signing statements

Posted at 03:49 PM ET, 07/03/2014

How diverse national soccer teams challenge anti-immigrant and racialized politics in France and Germany

Anti-immigrant sentiments are on the rise, but the French and Germans also want to field the best teams to represent their nations in the World Cup quarterfinal.

By Jacqueline S. Gehring  |  03:49 PM ET, 07/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  World Cup

Posted at 03:45 PM ET, 07/03/2014

The E.U. isn’t censoring searches on a former Merrill Lynch banker. Google is.

Internet commentators are angry at Europe because search results about a former Merrill Lynch banker have been censored. However, it’s at best uncertain that European law requires Google to do this.

By Henry Farrell  |  03:45 PM ET, 07/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Europe, Information Technology

Posted at 01:19 PM ET, 07/03/2014

A hotter, drier Middle East climate could threaten stability

In Jordan and other Arab countries facing a hotter and drier future, governments will need to respond decisively, or risk exacerbating already volatile socio-political conditions.

By Scott Greenwood  |  01:19 PM ET, 07/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Climate Change, Jordan, Middle-East, Syria

Posted at 10:14 AM ET, 07/03/2014

On the ethics of Facebook experiments

The backlash against Facebook’s recent “positive vs. negative content” experiment highlights a double standard applied to commercial, versus academic, research.

By Timothy J. Ryan  |  10:14 AM ET, 07/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ethics, Social Media

Posted at 09:16 AM ET, 07/03/2014

Can there be an ethical Middle East political science?

Our primary ethical commitment as political scientists must be to get the theory and the empirical evidence right.

By Marc Lynch  |  09:16 AM ET, 07/03/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Ethics, Middle-East, Political Science

Posted at 02:01 PM ET, 07/02/2014

‘So sue me’: Obama, the House, and executive power

The House lawsuit is not the answer to executive power - old-fashioned legislating is.

By Andrew Rudalevige  |  02:01 PM ET, 07/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  executive orders, House of Representatives, Polarization, Presidency

Posted at 11:44 AM ET, 07/02/2014

Can ISIS overcome the insurgency resource curse?

The addition of a resource war dynamic in the midst of the already significant ideological and sectarian cleavages in Iraq and Syria is hardly welcome news.

By Ariel I. Ahram  |  11:44 AM ET, 07/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Iraq, ISIS, Oil, Syria

Posted at 10:36 AM ET, 07/02/2014

Invited military interventions meet some limited success

When governments invite military help from the West this rarely solves all problems but such interventions can achieve limited goals.

By Aila M. Matanock  |  10:36 AM ET, 07/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Military Intervention

Posted at 03:05 AM ET, 07/02/2014

We’re not as polarized as we think we are

New evidence shows that we exaggerate the differences between liberals and conservatives.

By John Sides  |  03:05 AM ET, 07/02/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 11:19 AM ET, 07/01/2014

Was the Facebook emotion experiment unethical?

Facebook should have been far more candid with its users.

By Bethany Albertson and Shana Gadarian  |  11:19 AM ET, 07/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Facebook

Posted at 09:59 AM ET, 07/01/2014

How Supreme Court justices ‘benchslapped’ each other in the Hobby Lobby case

Polarization within the Court was on display in the Hobby Lobby decision.

By Amanda Hollis-Brusky  |  09:59 AM ET, 07/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  Judicial politics

Posted at 06:31 AM ET, 07/01/2014

What prompts violence against refugees?

How host states use refugees as pawns in domestic struggles for political dominance and why local communities respond in different ways to such political manipulation.

By Ato Kwamena Onoma  |  06:31 AM ET, 07/01/2014 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Tags:  African Politics Summer Reading Spectacular

 

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