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All Opinions Are Local
Posted at 09:43 AM ET, 03/20/2012

A big lead for Obama in Virginia?


Quinnipiac University has new polling results out for Virginia, and the headline numbers would all seem to be rather grim for the GOP:

President Barack Obama leads all the Republican presidential candidates in Virginia, with his 50 – 42 percent margin over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney his biggest lead over Romney in this election cycle, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Putting Gov. Bob McDonnell on the ticket as the GOP vice-presidential nominee does not help the Republicans carry the state. ... In a matchup of President Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden against Romney and McDonnell, the Democrats win 50 – 43 percent.
Obama wins head to head against other Republican contenders:
54 – 35 percent over former House Speaker Newt Gingrich;
49 – 40 percent over former Pennsylvania U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum;
49 – 39 percent over Texas U.S. Rep. Ron Paul.
In Virginia’s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine has 47 percent to Republican George Allen’s 44 percent, too close to call.

Yep, pretty grim stuff.

Until we get to this:

From March 13 – 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,034 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

Registered voters. Not likely voters.

So take these numbers with a grain of salt as a predictor of future performance.

Though to be fair, with presidential turnout in 2008 at roughly 75 percent, the Quinnipiac numbers still provide reason for the eventual GOP nominee to consider Virginia an uphill fight.

As for the notion that Gov. McDonnell wouldn’t be a help, even in his home state, that is highly debatable. However, my suspicion is that McDonnell won’t be the man picked for the ticket — by Mr. Romney or anyone else.

My money is on Sen. Marco Rubio.

Norman Leahy blogs at Bearing Drift. The Local Blog Network is a group of bloggers from around the D.C. region who have agreed to make regular contributions to All Opinions Are Local.

By Norman Leahy  |  09:43 AM ET, 03/20/2012

 
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