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Posted at 11:37 AM ET, 09/27/2012

Cardin is vulnerable, but will win in a landslide


On the morning after the Maryland primary, I wrote a piece in which I argued the results revealed some dangers for Maryland Democrats. In the newly gerrymandered 6th congressional district, more Republicans than Democrats turned out to vote even though the district featured the only contested Democratic congressional primary in the state.


Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md). (Chip Somodevilla - GETTY IMAGES)
I argued then that the presence of ballot initiatives on marriage equality and the Maryland Dream Act may boost conservative and Republican turn-out in November. Such a boost may be enough to protect Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (the Republican targeted by the 6th district gerrymander) and could provide a boost (a boost, not a win) to Republican Dan Bongino’s challenge to incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin.

Democrats in the state reacted as expected — by assuming I was a Republican plant trying to provide spin. (The fact that I support marriage equality, the Dream Act and Sen. Cardin is apparently all a part of my brilliant cover.)

I stand by what I wrote in April, and I think the new Gonzales poll lends it credence. The just-released poll finds Cardin receiving the support of only 50 percent of potential voters. For reasons that I cannot explain, Cardin has consistently received the lowest approval ratings of all statewide Democrats. This is surprising to me in that Cardin is one of the few grown-ups left in Washington. He demonstrates no clear partisan zeal and seems dedicated above all else to simply doing his job. His reward for being an adult has been marginal approval ratings in prior polls and a bare minimum 50 percent reelect number in this new poll.

Cardin is vulnerable. He’s the most vulnerable Democrat in the state either statewide or at the federal level.

Yet Cardin will win reelection by double digits. Why? Because two candidates are vying for the 50 percent of voters not committed to Cardin. The Republican nominee, Dan Bongino, is a political neophyte with precious little money but an impressive life story and credentials. The other candidate on the ballot is Rob Sobhani, an Independent candidate with deep pockets (and equally impressive credentials) who has twice sought and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in Maryland — both times to horrible alternatives.

[Continue reading Todd Eberly’s post at The FreeStater Blog.]

Todd Eberly blogs at The FreeStaterBlog. The Local Blog Network is a group of bloggers from around the D.C. region who have agreed to make regular contributions to All Opinions Are Local.

By  |  11:37 AM ET, 09/27/2012

 
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