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Posted at 12:09 PM ET, 05/06/2013

The real story in The Post’s Cuccinelli-McAuliffe poll


The Post poll we first learned was in the field via a Cuccinelli fundraising appeal finds that the AG has a five-point margin over Terry McAuliffe — 46 percent to 41 percent — among registered voters. The Post calls this margin “slender” — even though it’s outside the poll’s four-point margin of error.

The poll’s real story, though gets buried slightly, and it’s a doozy:

[Cuccinelli has] a significant 51 to 41 percent lead among those who say they’re certain to cast ballots in November.

Or, you can call them “likely voters.”

Even further down in the write-up, we get indications as to why McAuliffe is not faring so well:

Cuccinelli is up in the race because he has overwhelming support from the GOP base. Among all registered voters, he’s backed by 95 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of conservatives and 62 percent among white men.
By contrast, compared with Obama’s win seven months ago, McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, is badly underperforming among key Democratic constituencies he would need to prevail — young voters, women, African Americans and those in the vote-rich areas of Northern Virginia.
McAuliffe beats Cuccinelli by a big margin among nonwhite voters, 57 to 21 percent, but that is far from Obama’s tally of 83 to 16 percent in the state’s exit poll. Even state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (D-Bath) scored 76 percent among nonwhite voters in his unsuccessful 2009 gubernatorial bid.

Polling behind Creigh Deeds? That’s just painful. And for those hoping to appear on the Democratic ticket with McAuliffe, it’s also very troubling.

[Continue reading Norman Leahy’s post at Bearing Drift.]

Norman Leahy blogs at Bearing Drift. The Local Blog Network is a group of bloggers from around the D.C. region who have agreed to make regular contributions to All Opinions Are Local.

By Norman Leahy  |  12:09 PM ET, 05/06/2013

 
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