Could the Libertarian tip the race in Va.?

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Virginia pressies were salivating over the release of this most recent poll of likely voters from Quinnipiac. But the numbers confound the building narrative that Ken Cuccinelli isn’t just beaten but thoroughly cooked. He’s within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error.

So instead, Quinnipiac chooses to say the race comes down to the Libertarian:

With 7 percent of likely voters, Robert Sarvis, the Libertarian candidate in the too-close-to call Virginia governor’s race, could hold the key to victory for Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who has 44 percent of likely voters, or Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who has 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Democrat McAuliffe gets a split 38 – 38 percent favorability rating, the independent Quinnipiac … University poll finds, compared to Republican Cuccinelli’s negative 34 – 51 percent rating. For Sarvis, 85 percent don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

As much as part of me wants to believe that Virginia really is seeing a surge of interest in a Libertarian candidate, Virginia voters have traditionally ignored third-party candidates when it actually comes time to vote.

Could this time be different? Neither major-party candidate is liked, and Ken Cuccinelli is actually disliked by a majority of the poll’s respondents. Sarvis could, theoretically, benefit in November simply because he isn’t either of those other guys.

[Continue reading Norman Leahy’s post at Bearing Drift.]

Norman Leahy blogs at Bearing Drift. The Local Blog Network is a group of bloggers from around the D.C. region who have agreed to make regular contributions to All Opinions Are Local.

 

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