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Posted at 09:18 AM ET, 05/24/2012

Egyptian election: Will U.S. lose?

A burgeoning democracy movement has energized Egypt, culminating in a landmark presidential election that started on Wednesday. But a poll released this month shows Egyptians are grappling with dual commitments to Islam and basic democratic liberties as the country shifts from decades of autocratic rule.

The poll shows a majority wants Egypt’s laws to strictly follow the Koran, and the current election may bring bad tidings for Egypt’s one-time partners: The United States continues to be widely unpopular and hostility toward Israel is on the rise.

Egyptians united to oust President Hosni Mubarak amid last year’s Arab Spring uprisings. Many of those who opposed the former Egyptian leader also have disdain for the United States, a longtime Mubarak ally: Nearly eight in 10 Egyptians had an unfavorable view of the United States according to a 2011 poll by the Pew Global Attitudes Project conducted after the overthrow. About half said their views were “very unfavorable.”

Little has changed since then, and a new Pew poll finds scant appreciation for U.S. aid efforts.  Egypt has received an average of $2 billion a year from the United States – largely for its military – making it second only to Israel as an aid recipient. But fully six in 10 believe U.S. military and economic assistance is having a mostly negative effect on the country.

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By Scott Clement  |  09:18 AM ET, 05/24/2012 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Categories:  International polls, Barack Obama

Posted at 12:06 PM ET, 05/23/2012

Romney bullying incident fazes few, poll finds

A nearly 50-year-old bullying allegation against Mitt Romney doesn’t faze many voters, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Most Americans see the incident -- recounted by some of Romney’s high school classmates in a Washington Post story -- as not serious, and almost all, 90 percent, say it is not an issue that will affect voting.


Moreover, three-quarters of those polled say it is simply not fair to bring up things political candidates did when they were in high school.

Majorities across party lines also say the episode does not provide relevant information about Romney’s personal character. The percentage saying it does peaks at 42 percent among Democrats who have a gay friend or family member. The recipient of Romney’s bullying is thought to have been gay.

Also, among those who see the incident as serious, two-thirds say it provides important information about his character. Even so, most of these people say it is unlikely to be a major factor in their presidential choice.

Obama’s time in high school past gets virtually identical treatment as Romney’s. Seven in 10 say the things he did back in Hawaii do not provide relevant information about his personal character. In his memoir, Obama alluded to using marijuana and cocaine in high school. 

Explore the crosstabs here.

By and Peyton M. Craighill  |  12:06 PM ET, 05/23/2012 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)

Posted at 01:16 PM ET, 05/22/2012

Before NATO summit Obama’s approval rating split on Afghanistan, international affairs

The public splits roughly down the middle on President Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan and managing international affairs more broadly. Those middling ratings come from the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, conducted just before Obama attended the NATO summit in Chicago

The outcome of that summit -- setting down a plan for ending the combat mission in Afghanistan -- may help to boost Obama’s future ratings in these areas. Public support for the war evaporated long ago, with only three in 10 saying the war was worth fighting in an April Post-ABC poll, a new low point in polling back to 2007.

The public now divides 47 to 44 percent on Obama’s handling of Afghanistan. There is a similar 48 to 46 percent split for his efforts on international affairs.

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By Peyton M. Craighill  |  01:16 PM ET, 05/22/2012 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Categories:  Barack Obama, Afghanistan

Posted at 08:28 AM ET, 05/16/2012

Romney’s tax, health-care proposals draw partisan reaction

More voters favor than oppose Mitt Romney’s proposal for an across-the-board 20-percent cut in federal income tax rates according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. But there’s an even split on his call to repeal the landmark health-care law passed in 2010.

Support for two of Romney’s marquee proposals is sharply divided along partisan lines, as is support for President Obama’s economic policies.

Fully three-quarters of Republicans have favorable views of Romney’s proposed tax cut and a roll-back of the president’s health-care legislation. About six in 10 Democrats throw cold water on the ideas.

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By Scott Clement  |  08:28 AM ET, 05/16/2012 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Categories:  2012 polls, Economy, Health care

Posted at 02:20 PM ET, 05/15/2012

Political surveys survive response fall-off, Pew finds

The Pew Research Center’s latest detailed study of survey quality paints a worrisome picture for survey response rates, but again shows that a well-done telephone poll — even one with response rates in the high single-digits — accurately represent the U.S. population on a broad range of political and demographic measures.

The apparent accuracy of results from a survey where fewer than one in 10 people completed the interview parallels previous studies showing a weak connection between response rates and survey quality. A 2008 study of more than 100 surveys, including many media polls, concluded that “lower response rates do not notably reduce the quality of survey demographic estimates.”

The centerpiece of the new Pew report was a specialized version of their standard five-day national survey, which dials randomly selected landline and cellphones. Instead of asking a series of questions about national politics, Pew included a battery of questions comparable to high-response rate surveys conducted by the federal government.

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By Scott Clement  |  02:20 PM ET, 05/15/2012 |  Permalink  |  Comments ( 0)
Categories:  methodology, Voting, Polls

 

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