More ballots were cast in yesterday's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Kentucky than in the Republican, but the total number of votes cast masks a stunning turnaround in the state's historical turnout patterns.
Several bloggers (see examples here, here and here) have argued that Rand Paul's easy victory in the Republican primary may not mean much come November given the lower number of voters in the Republican contest. But such an analysis overlooks essential historical context. (Some also miss the critical fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by about 600,000 voters.)
According to data from Kentucky's Board of Elections, in no state primary going back to 1982 did Republican turnout top Democratic turnout, until this year.
At last update, 34 percent of registered Republicans and 32 percent of registered Democrats cast ballots yesterday. In contrast, in primaries since 1982, Democratic turnout has outpaced Republican turnout by an average 10 percentage points, with the narrowest Democratic advantage standing at 2.5 percentage points in the 2007 gubernatorial primaries. The largest gap was a whopping 29 percentage points in 1983.
Of course, the Democrats' edge in primary vote turnout hasn't always turned into an advantage in November, so this result doesn't translate directly into an edge for the Republicans this time, but it is a sharp deviation from nearly 30 years of voting statistics.
Kentucky primary election turnout % by party registration:
Dem. Rep. D-R 2010 31.8 33.6 -1.8 2008 43.5 19.7 23.8 2007 22.4 19.9 2.5 2006 36.4 28.0 8.4 2004 16.0 13.2 2.8 2003 18.8 17.2 1.6 2002 37.0 28.7 8.3 2000 16.8 12.0 4.8 1999 7.9 4.8 3.1 1998 43.5 33.9 9.6 1996 21.2 15.7 5.5 1995 24.5 18.0 6.5 1994 17.8 12.9 4.9 1993 47.5 33.9 13.6 1992 31.0 19.0 12.0 1991 40.1 29.7 10.4 1990 27.3 14.7 12.6 1989 48.5 32.8 15.7 1988 25.7 12.2 13.5 1987 48.4 21.5 26.9 1986 18.6 12.2 6.4 1985 51.8 35.4 16.4 1984 21.3 12.0 9.3 1983 52.1 22.9 29.2 1982 15.8 12.6 3.2
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