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Behind the Numbers
Posted at 08:56 PM ET, 09/08/2008

In the Margins

The nominating conventions are over, but their impact is starting to emerge in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out today. Here's a look at how the new race stacks up to exit poll results from the previous two presidential contests. Each row shows the margin among that group for the leading candidate, but keep in mind, not all margins are statistically significant.

Presidential Vote Margin:

                   2000        2004        2008
All                Even     Bush   +3   Obama   +1

Men              Bush +11   Bush  +11   McCain  +8 
Women            Gore +11   Kerry  +3   Obama   +8

Whites           Bush +12   Bush  +17   McCain +17
Blacks           Gore +81   Kerry +77   Obama  +94

White men        Bush +24   Bush  +25   McCain +24
White women      Bush  +1   Bush  +11   McCain +12

Democrats        Gore +75   Kerry +78   Obama  +73
Independents     Bush  +2   Kerry  +1   McCain  +7
Republicans      Bush +83   Bush  +87   McCain +81

White Catholics  Bush  +7   Bush  +13   McCain +23
White evang.
  Protestants       NA      Bush  +57   McCain +50

18-29            Gore  +2   Kerry  +9   Obama  +27
30-44            Bush  +1   Bush   +7   McCain  +6
45-59            Bush  +1   Bush   +3   Even
60+              Gore  +4   Bush   +8   McCain  +6

65+              Gore  +3   Bush   +5   McCain +10

Suburbanites     Bush  +2   Bush   +5   McCain  +8
 Women           Gore  +5   Kerry  +3   Even
 White women     Even       Bush   +9   McCain +14
 Married 
  white women    Bush  +8   Bush  +21   McCain +24

White non-coll.  Bush +17   Bush  +23   McCain +19
White college    Bush  +8   Bush  +11   McCain +16

Liberals         Gore +67   Kerry +72   Obama  +65
Moderates        Gore  +8   Kerry  +9   Obama   +7
Conservatives    Bush +64   Bush  +69   McCain +50

SOURCE: 2000 and 2004 data from network exit polling, 2008 data from the Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Sept. 5-7 among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including interviews with 961 registered voters. Results shown above among registered voters.

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  08:56 PM ET, 09/08/2008

Categories:  Post Polls, Post Polls

 
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