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Behind the Numbers
Posted at 05:12 PM ET, 02/21/2008

March Madness

With the Democratic presidential nomination fight barreling towards March 4, two new surveys out today from the Washington Post and ABC News show an extremely close contest in Texas and a narrow Clinton edge in Ohio. Barack Obama resoundingly defeated Clinton in Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin by cutting into her core demographics, but the new polls find Hillary Clinton improving on her post-Super Tuesday performance among some of these same groups - women, voters without college degrees, Democrats and those from households earning less than $50,000 per year.

Her inroads into Obama's strongest territory may not be enough to generate the wide margin of victory she needs. As the campaigns ramp up their efforts in both states, here's a look at the landscape they'll face.

                Avg. Obama margin   Obama margin in:
                    post-2/5*         Ohio   Texas
Men                    +31             +4      +5
Women                  +14            -18      -6

Whites                  -6            -24      -4
Blacks                 +76            +64     +58
Latinos                 -1             NA     -23

White men               +8            -12     +10
White women            -16            -35     -17

Married women           +9            -27      -9
Unmarried women        +16             -3      -4

Age 18-39              +41            +6     +20
Age 65+                 -5            -24     -35

Democrats              +17            -16     -11
Independents           +31            +14     +13

Non-college            +20            -19     -13
College graduates      +24            +20     +10

Household income:
Under $50,000          +21            -11      -9
$50,000 or more        +23             -3     +11

*In the four states where exit polling was conducted after Super Tuesday (Louisiana, Maryland, Virginia and Wisconsin), Obama defeated Clinton by an average of 23 percentage points.

SOURCE: Washington Post-ABC News polls of likely Democratic voters in Ohio and Texas. Full data from the poll can be found here.

More vote data after the jump.

Q: If the Democratic primary were being held today, would you vote for...

                       Ohio:             Texas:
                 Clinton   Obama    Clinton   Obama
Men                 44       48        45       50
Women               56       38        50       44

Whites              58       34        50       46
Blacks              17       81        18       76
Latinos             NA       NA        59       36

White men           52       40        43       53
White women         56       38        56       39

Married women       60       33        52       43
Unmarried women     49       46        49       45

Age 18-39           45       51        39       59
Age 40-64           50       42        49       46
Age 65+             57       33        60       25

Democrats           55       39        53       42
Independents        39       53        40       53

Liberal             52       45        47       50
Moderate            49       41        50       44
Conservative        50       44        44       49

Non-college         56       37        50       43
College graduates   36       56        44       54

Among whites:
Non-college         65       27        52       41
College graduates   41       50        47       50

Household income:
Under $50,000       52       41        52       43
$50,000 or more     48       45        42       53

Among whites:
Under $50,000       62       31        58       38
$50,000 or more     55       37        44       51

Union members       51       38        NA       NA
Union households    53       37        NA       NA

Top issue:
The economy         52       37        51       45
Health care         51       43        53       42

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  05:12 PM ET, 02/21/2008

Categories:  Post Polls

 
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