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Behind the Numbers
Posted at 06:56 PM ET, 02/07/2008

Parsing the GOP: Evangelicals

Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative."

Evangelical Christians:

On Super Tuesday, evangelical Christians boosted Mike Huckabee in the south, where he picked up his first wins since Iowa. But in states where evangelicals constituted under half of the electorate, he hasn't even won this, his core group, lagging behind both Mitt Romney and John McCain in most cases.

More fundamentally, Huckabee has not broadened his appeal beyond evangelicals, except in his home state. In Arkansas, 41 percent of non-evangelicals supported their former governor, but elsewhere Huckabee did no better than 21 percent among these voters. By contrast, Super Tuesday exit poll results show John McCain making inroads among evangelicals.

Vote among evangelical Christians:

           Total   McCain   Romney   Huckabee
Iowa        60%      10       19        46
N.H.        23%      28       27        28
Mich.       39%      23       34        29
Nev.        24%       9       39        22
S.C.        60%      27       11        43
Fla.        39%      30       29        29
Ariz.       38%      46       30        16
Calif.      35%      33       32        26
Ga.         62%      27       28        43
Ill.        41%      38       27        28
Mass.       14%      26       53        16
Mo.         55%      24       30        41
N.J.        16%      38       28        26
N.Y.        19%      38       25        30
Tenn.       73%      29       20        42
*Total=percentage of all GOP voters who consider 
themselves a "born-again" or evangelical Christian

Vote among non-evangelicals:

           Total   McCain   Romney   Huckabee
Iowa        40%      18       33        14
N.H.        77%      38       34         6
Mich.       61%      34       39         8
Nev.        76%      15       54         3
S.C.        40%      43       20        14
Fla.        61%      38       34         4
Ariz.       62%      47       38         4
Calif.      65%      49       35         5
Ga.         38%      40       35        19
Ill.        59%      55       28         9
Mass.       86%      43       51         2
Mo.         45%      41       29        21
N.J.        84%      61       26         5
N.Y.        81%      37       27         9
Tenn.       27%      39       35        15
*Total=percentage of all GOP voters who do not consider 
themselves a "born-again" or evangelical Christian

All data from the National Election Pool exit and entrance polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky.

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  06:56 PM ET, 02/07/2008

Categories:  Exit polls, Exit polls

 
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