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Behind the Numbers
Posted at 12:26 PM ET, 02/01/2008

Parsing the GOP: 'Independents'

Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." These are the voters to watch on Tuesday, and we'll take a look at each in a series of posts here on Behind the Numbers.

Our second group, independents:

John McCain's solid base of support among self-identified independents has powered him even in contests restricted to registered Republicans (see how here). It was independents who pushed McCain over the top in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, and kept him afloat in Romney's home state of Michigan.

Vote among self-identified independents:

           Total*   McCain   Romney   Huckabee
Iowa        14%      23       19        18
N.H.        37%      40       27         9
Mich.       25%      35       29        15
Nev.        12%      13       12         4
S.C.        18%      42       12        25
Fla.        17%      44       23        11
*Total=percentage of all GOP voters referring
to themselves as independents

After the jump, how the votes break down among Republicans.

Vote among self-identified Republicans:

           Total   McCain   Romney   Huckabee
Iowa        86%      12       26        36
N.H.        61%      34       35        13
Mich.       68%      27       41        17
Nev.        86%      13       57         8
S.C.        80%      31       15        32
Fla.        80%      33       33        15

All data from the National Election Pool exit and entrance polls conducted by Edison/Mitofsky.

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  12:26 PM ET, 02/01/2008

Categories:  Exit polls, Exit polls

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