Parsing the GOP: The Bush Factor

Analyzing early state exit polls, five key GOP voter groups emerge: Economy-focused voters, independents, those dissatisfied with the Bush administration, evangelicals and the "very conservative." These are the voters to watch on Tuesday, and we'll take a look at each in a series of posts here on Behind the Numbers.

Third, the less-than-satisfied with Bush:

Change has been less of a driving force thus far on the Republican side than on the Democratic side, but a relatively substantial portion of the GOP electorate - three in 10 or more in each of the early states - are dissatisfied or angry with the Bush administration's policies. And this group appears to be another strong point for McCain, despite the senator's strong backing of Bush's policies on Iraq and other issues this campaign season.

Vote among those "dissatisfied" or "angry" with the Bush administration:

           Total*  McCain   Romney   Huckabee
Iowa        31%      18       21        28
N.H.        49%      40       26        10
Mich.       45%      37       28        13
Nev.        NA
S.C.        30%      39       13        26
Fla.        32%      45       23        10
*Total=percentage of all GOP voters who indicated 
they are "dissatisfied" or "angry" with Bush

Vote among those "satisfied" with or "enthusiastic" about the Bush administration:

           Total   McCain   Romney   Huckabee
Iowa        68%       9       30        38
N.H.        50%      32       37        12
Mich.       53%      24       45        19
Nev.        NA
S.C.        69%      31       15        33
Fla.        68%      31       35        15