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Behind the Numbers
Posted at 02:30 PM ET, 10/03/2011

Republicans expect to win in 2012

Republicans are overwhelmingly confident about taking back the White House in 2012, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Democrats are less sure that their guy has another big win in him.

Overall, 55 percent of Americans expect a Republican victory next year. Fewer, 37 percent, predict that President Obama will win reelection. A majority of independents sense that the GOP nominee will prevail, but there is a gaping difference between party loyalists.

Fully 83 percent of Republicans say the GOP nominee — whoever he or she may be — is likely to claim the presidency next year. Among Democrats, far fewer, 58 percent, say they think Obama will win a second term. A third of Democrats expect a GOP win; just 13 percent of Republicans sense a repeat for Obama.

Republicans who “strongly support” the tea party political movement are particularly confident: 91 percent of these Republicans say they think the GOP candidate will win the general election.


The poll was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 2, and the results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. More from the new poll will be available in tomorrow’s Washington Post.

By  |  02:30 PM ET, 10/03/2011

 
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