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Better than average but in this non-winter winter, not great.
 
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Today: Patchy a.m. fog, then sunny. 45-49. | Tonight: Clear and calm. 25-31. | Tomorrow: Sunny until late day clouds arrive. 46-51. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

One flirtation with winter has just ended but there could be yet another Friday night into Saturday morning. No cause to even think about a grocery store run, but snow or rain showers are possible. The upoming weekend’s biggest taste of winter weather arises from the temperatures that barely get above freezing Sunday. Not to worry, though, spring-like weather looks to come back next week no matter what that pesky Pennsylvania rodent said.

Snow Potential Index: 4 (↓) - Snow/rain flirtations continue in the area on Friday night. but accumulation chances aren't great.

 

The SPI is a daily assessment of the potential for accumulating snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. Get the 'SPI' on Twitter

 

Today (Thursday): Clouds and patchy fog should quickly fade this morning, giving us a mostly sunny balance of the day. The chill is out of the air by midday with highs set to reach the mid-to-upper 40s. The breeze from the west is light. Confidence: High

Tonight: The moon in the east and Venus in the west are in full view as clear skies prevail. Calm winds let temperatures drop liberally. Lows reach the mid-20s suburbs to lower 30s downtown. Confidence: High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast into early next week...

*Social media snow reports and photos | Snow reports from NWS *

7:35 p.m. update: Today’s rain and mostly non-accumulating snow is all finished save for lingering pockets of drizzle. Who did see some snow accumulation? Here are a few paltry totals from NWS: Germantown (0.1”); Gaithersburg (Trace); Herndon (0.1”); Dulles (Trace). Even those, though, were mainly on grass. Here’s more totals and a map. Temps are at or slightly below freezing in the far north/west burbs (e.g., Frederick, Loudoun, n. Montgomery, n. Prince William, n. Fauquier counties), so slick spots possible there especially in the a.m.

6:15 p.m. update: Precipitation is decreasing in coverage and intensity. This one is about over. Don’t think even a trace of snow made it to the District. An underachiever...no doubt. Watch out for possible slick spots though far western and northern areas with temps there around freezing. See our Social Media collection blog post to see reports and photos throughout the event.

5 p.m. update: The back edge of this event is getting close and the rain/snow line is trying to push eastward towards the west side of the beltway but facing resistance. We’re getting some reports of snow mixing with rain in Bethesda, Falls Church, McLean but that may be about as far east as flakes get from this underwhelming event. Precipitation should wind down in the next hour or two. One moderate band of precipitation stretching from central Montgomery county through central Fairfax and Prince William county may briefly bring flakes to regions yet to see them as it moves east. Then precipitation tapers off.

Overview: Snow, rain and a rain/snow mix continue across the area, and should do so for the next few hours before tapering off from southwest to northeast (between 6 and 7 p.m. or so). As with most of our snow events this year, elevation and being north and west of the city have been and will continue to be critical for getting accumulation.

Accumulations so far: Once above about 500-1,000 feet in elevation in our north and west suburbs, snow has stuck with around 0.5-1.5” thus far But those amounts quickly fall off at lower elevations to a coating or so and nothing further south and east.

Forecast through Tonight: Snow, north and west of town, and rain, possibly mixing with and changing to snow elsewhere, come to an end early this evening. Temperatures are dipping through the mid-30s in the west and north suburbs, and they may fall close to freezing come sunset.

Any place that transitions to all snow may at least see some accumulation on grassy areas, but roads should stay wet except perhaps above 500-1,000 feet in elevation (in Loudoun, NW Montgomery, and Frederick counties). And while most roads are treated, it’s worth keeping an eye out for slick spots even after precipitation stops as temperatures cool.

We probably stick with clouds for a good part of the night before more earnest clearing late. Lows should fall to near freezing downtown and into the mid-or-upper 20s in the suburbs.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Be wary of a few potential slick spots in the morning, but most places should be relatively trouble free. Plentiful sunshine returns, as does milder air back up around the average for this time of year. A light wind from the northwest should be no real issue as highs rise to the mid-and-upper 40s.

See Dan Stillman’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter . For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

Every storm, we get a ton of excellent reports from our readers via Facebook and Twitter. If you’re not following us on those platforms, you should :)

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Capital Weather Gang on Twitter

Keep reading for a collection of reports and photos from our followers from throughout this event.

*Winter Weather Advisory for Frederick county through 8 p.m. and points N & W (see map) | Social media snow reports and photos *

Overview: Today’s snow event is a minor one and may even be more rain than snow south and east of the District. Nonetheless, the coincidence of the storm’s heaviest precipitation with the afternoon commute may cause some slow going, especially in the colder north and west suburbs. Please see our blog post “Key points for today’s snow and rain event” for a detailed overview of what to expect.

4:00 p.m. update: This live blog has concluded. See our PM Update for our latest forecast and continued updates...

3:45 p.m. update: This continues to be largely a rain event inside the beltway, although we’ve received a few reports of flakes mixing with the rain in the District. To the west and southwest, locations like Reston, Oakton, and Gainesville are seeing rain transition to snow and may get a coating before this ends. Farther to the north and west, some accumulation is occurring, particularly at elevations above 1,000 feet.

I expect we’ll see more reports of rain changing to snow farther east over the next couple hours, but in some cases, the precipitation may shut off before this can happen. In most spots, this event should end by 6 p.m. or so.

3:15 p.m. update: The Winter Weather Advisory has been discontinued for Montgomery, Howard, northern Fauquier and Loudoun counties. It remains in effect for Frederick and Carroll counties through 8 p.m.

3:10 p.m. update: Inside the beltway, most spots are getting rain, with rain mixing with and changing to snow north and west, but not accumulating (except at high elevations).

The big question now is whether the District, places inside the beltway, and to the east see any flakes at all? We still think yes, but with temperatures still from the upper 30s to low 40s in this area, it’s not a given. Another factor that will cut down any snow we might see? The precipitation looks to end on the early side of the our predicted 6-9 p.m. window, not giving temps much time to drop.

2:40 p.m. update:With temperatures still hovering around 40 with rain inside the beltway and snow only sticking in elevated locations well north and west, it’s becoming clear snow is going to be at the low end of our projections. We still expect rain to transition to snow before ending in the immediate metro area, but anything more than a coating on grassy areas is doubtful. And north and west of the beltway, accumulations on grassy areas will be light, probably less than 1”.

Keep reading for earlier updates...

*Winter Weather Advisory for N&W burbs (Montgomery, Loudoun, Howard, n. Fauquier) from 10 a.m.-noon to 8-10 p.m. (see map) *

* Unscheduled leave and telework options for Federal workers *

* CWG’s earlier coverage: Full Forecast | Steadiest snow may coincide with Wednesday PM commute *

Locations colored in purple are under a winter weather advisory. (National Weather Service) Today’s snow event is a minor one and may even be more rain than snow south and east of the District. Nonetheless, the coincidence of the storm’s heaviest precipitation with the afternoon commute may cause some slow going, especially in the colder north and west suburbs. Here are the key points about today’s snow (and rain) event:

* Start time ranges from late morning in far western suburbs to mid-afternoon east of town

* Precipitation may begin as rain in the District and points east and southeast; snow elsewhere. Precipitation should change to snow where it begins as rain within a couple hours of the onset.

* Temperatures from 35-40 when the snow starts mean little sticking through mid-afternoon. Current temperatures range from 36 (Hagerstown) - 40 (D.C.).

* The steadiest precipitation is most likely to fall between 3 and 6 p.m. today, coinciding with the afternoon commute.

Our accumulation map.* Best chance of sticking is between 4 and 7 p.m. in north and west suburbs tonight as temperatures drop into low-to-mid 30s. Inside the beltway and to the south and east, precipitation is less likely to stick and the effects may more resemble rain.

* Precipitation should end between 6 and 9 p.m. tonight from west to east.

* Accumulations: A heavy coating to 2” in winter weather advisory area (purple), less than 1” elsewhere. (See map after the jump)

* The National Weather Service is not impressed with the snow potential for this event. Its morning shift forecaster worried: “I’M A BIT CONCERNED SOME OF THE ADVISORY IS NOT GOING TO VERIFY.”