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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 04/19/2011

Forecast: Warmer, more clouds, some showers

80s blast in Wed. before cooler Thurs. & Fri.

Coastal flood warning through this morning for the District, Alexandria and Arlington. Tides two to four feet above normal but lower than Monday. High tide between about 9:30 and 10 a.m. River flood warning for the Potomac at Point of Rocks and Little Falls.

Update, 2 p.m.: Heavy showers and thunderstorms are pouring over Frederick and Carroll counties, where a Flood Watch is in effect given saturated ground and the potential for 1-2” of rain through this evening. Some of this activity is also reaching into Loudoun, northern Fairfax, Montgomery and Howard counties.

Update, 10:45 a.m.: Showers and thundershowers to west have reached a little bit farther south than anticipated. We’re presently seeing activity reaching into central Fairfax county (and extending as far south as northern Prince William county) which look to move through the immediate metro area in next hour. Brief downpours are possible. After this line moves through, there is more activity to the west likely to impact the region this afternoon, especially north and northwest of the beltway - though some activity may extend south like this morning’s.

Update, 10:15 a.m.: Scattered showers are passing through some of the eastern suburbs and will move off in the next hour or so. Farther west, a more solid area of showers, with some heavy rain, is moving into western Fauquier, Loudoun, And Frederick counties. This activity is likely to clip suburbs mainly north and northwest of the beltway through early afternoon. Some scattered light showers or sprinkles are possible elsewhere.

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Warm is nice, but more clouds & showers/storms could prove disruptive later in day.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mainly p.m. showers/storms. Highs 72-77. | Tonight:Mostly cloudy, showers/storms (30% chance). 56-62. | Tomorrow: Mixed skies. P.M. storms possible (40% chance). 81-85. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The past several weeks have all offered one warm day in the 80s. For the past two weeks, that day was Monday, but this week’s winner is Wednesday. We’ll progress in that direction today with highs well into the 70s under mixed skies. But the warm air (and humidity) keep pumping into the area tomorrow too, allowing most locations to reach the 80s. Spring-time variability is the constant as Thursday goes cooler-than-normal (but nice) and Friday goes much cooler with maybe some wet weather (not-so-nice).


Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Tuesday): Today’s key driving force is a warm front. The current position should favor more clouds and shower/storm chances in the far northern and western edges. This also creates a bigger range of temperatures with northern areas barely getting above 70 and southern parts more easily achieving middle 70s or warmer. Shower and storm chances are mainly in the afternoon (outside chance in the morning, mainly northwest) varying from 50-60% north and northwest of town and 30-40% chance elsewhere. Widespread heavy rains are not expected to exacerbate recent flooding problems but a localized downpour or two is possible. Winds most of the day should be from the south or southwest at 10-15 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Clouds and a few showers or storms possible again (30% chance) with warmer lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Light winds mainly from the south and southwest again. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Stronger winds (15-20 mph) from the south and southwest usher in a warmer surge of temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s in most locations. Skies will be variable with intermittent periods of sunshine. Thunderstorm chances are about 40% in the afternoon as a cold front approaches. Recent trends are drier, so don’t expect the type of weather we saw last Saturday. Still, any storms that develop could be strong. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Lingering clouds, cooler conditions, and light winds from the north. Lows in the upper 40s to middle 50s (suburbs to city). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Thursday features a new area of high pressure moving into the region. On the positive side, that means more sunshine and pleasant weather with dry humidity. On the downside, it is cooler with highs only in the 60s. Thursday night sees widespread lows in the 40s (even downtown) under partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium

Good Friday delivers increasing clouds and a 40-50% chance of rain, especially during the afternoon. With a cool wind from the east and north, highs may only be in the upper 50s. But if the rain holds off and we sneak in some morning sun, some 60s are possible.. Light rain or drizzle is possible Friday night with lows in the 40s to near 50. Confidence: Low-Medium

The Easter weekend offers some improvement compared to Friday’s possible dreariness. We could see lingering morning showers/clouds on Saturday before afternoon partial sunshine and highs in the middle or upper 70s. However, a cold front could fire up a round of showers/storms in the late afternoon/evening. Partly cloudy Saturday night with lows back into the 50s. Right now, Sunday also sees 70s- perhaps mid-to-upper 70s under partly sunny skies along with a chance of showers and storms later in the day (30% chance) Confidence:Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 04/19/2011

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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