It’s simply not fair. Last Saturday was overcast with highs in the low 50s. This coming Saturday, the possibility of heavy, even flooding rain looms as a slow moving front trudges towards the region. Is this spring turning into one of the worst in recent memory weatherwise?
The image to the right shows the preliminary rainfall assessment from NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. Generally, 1-1.5 inches is the best bet right for this storm system (around 1” in the metro region to 1.5” toward the mountains)- which will tap both Atlantic and Gulf moisture.
The biggest wildcard right now is the exact timing of the rain. It could start as early as mid-morning or hold off until early to mid-afternoon. And it could end as early as between 7 and 10 p.m. or continue until past midnight. At this point, the heaviest rain seems most likely to fall between late afternoon and mid-evening, when there could be embedded thunderstorms.
The National Weather Service in Sterling is highlighting flood potential, writing in its latest discussion:
SATURDAY - WITH POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...AND MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT HIGHEST [RAINFALL POTENTIAL] WILL BE ACROSS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...
We’ll keep you posted on the rainy details and any changes to the forecast as the weekend draws closer.