AccuWeather, WeatherBug, ABC7 update winter outlooks

Capital Weather Gang released its winter outlook in early November, and Thursday winter weather expert Wes Junker updated our outlook for December. In short, for the winter we’re predicting near to slightly below normal snowfall and near normal temperatures. For December, we favor below average snowfall and slightly above average temperatures (revised from slightly below average temperatures).

Over the last few days, several other outlets/forecasters - namely AccuWeather, WeatherBug, and ABC7’s Bob Ryan - have tweaked their outlooks, which more or less continue to be consistent with our general thoughts.

Let’s begin with AccuWeather, which had this to say about the winter’s snow potential on Thursday:

With a storm track farther north and west compared to last year, snowfall will be near to below normal for the highly populated I-95 corridor, including Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Stormy weather is still expected, but there will be more events with a wintry mix or a changeover to rain.

On Friday, AccuWeather noted it also tweaked temperatures “up a bit” along the I-95 corridor, especially in early December. We agree with that adjustment, based on the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation Wes discussed Thursday.

Earth Networks, the parent company of WeatherBug, released its winter outlook yesterday, is calling for near normal temperatures and precipitation in the D.C. metro region and much of the mid-Atlantic. You can watch their full 40-minute outlook briefing below. It’s quite informative.

Video: Earth Networks winter outlook seminar

Finally, senior meteorologist Bob Ryan at ABC7, offered his revised thoughts on the upcoming winter. Noting it’s been warmer than average in the Northern Plains the last couple of months, Ryan pointed out: In past winters, when October and November have both been mild to our north, the following months are more likely to be relatively easy or mild rather than very cold.

Considering that, as well as the La Nina pattern, and close to average Siberian snow cover, he’s favoring an “average or milder-than-average winter” with near-average snow.

As I’ve mentioned in earlier posts, everyone seems to be on a similar page this year when it comes to winter expectations.

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.
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