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Posted at 01:13 PM ET, 04/19/2012

Announcing the 2011-2012 Washington, D.C. snowfall forecast winner


Nearly 680 of you issued predictions about how much snow would fall this winter at Reagan National Airport. It was a remarkably snow-free winter - the 3rd least snowy on record in Washington, D.C.

Only two people really foresaw the astonishing lack of snow. Topping the list: Bill Walker who forecast 2.1” would fall, within 0.1” of nailing the actual amount of 2.0”. Congratulations, Bill - that was an amazing call!

Kudos are also in order for the runner-up, Xinli Wang, who predicted 2.2”.

The third place forecaster, Stephen Brundange, called for 3.8” - 90 percent more than what fell - but superior to 670+ other predictions.

The top 15 best predictions are shown to the right above.


Snowfall predictions by category (amount range)
Interestingly, no one called for less than 2.1”, whereas 16 people called for over 50”. The bulk (77 percent) of reader forecasts fell in the 10-30” range. The worst forecast was made by an individual that predicted 91.4”.

The average snowfall predicted by entrants was about 22.0” - some 20” above what actually fell. As we reported yesterday, we (the Capital Weather Gang) predicted a less than stellar 12” in our winter outlook.


Bar chart showing Capital Weather Gang’s probabilities for snow amounts at Reagan National Airport, versus the percentage of CWG readers who predicted amounts in those ranges.
Examining probabilities and distributions, we predicted a 25% chance of 18” or more of snow whereas about 55% of readers predicted at least that amount. We gave a 15% chance of less than 6” of snow, compared to 2% of readers who forecast that amount.

At the end of the day, precious few people anticipated our nearly snowless winter - so major props to our select readers that did.

We really appreciate you participating in this forecasting game - and once again - congratulations to Bill Walker. We’ll do this again next year - so start sharpening up your long-range forecasting skills...

(If you want to know where you ranked, feel free to email weathergang AT wpni DOT com)

Related: Capital Weather Gang readers predict an average of 22” of snow this winter

By  |  01:13 PM ET, 04/19/2012

Categories:  Latest, Local Climate, Capital Weather Gang

 
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