Snow confined to mountains/interior
All signs currently point to the development of a significant nor’easter late Thursday into Friday. However, for the cities along I-95 from D.C. to Boston, much of precipitation will fall as cold rain with some modest prospects for snow on the storm’s backside, especially as you head north.
Let’s take a look at what this storm will do, may do, and not do:
The storm will:
- Develop rapidly, with rain likely beginning in the D.C. metro region most likely between mid-afternoon and early evening Thursday, and overnight in the big cities from Philly to Boston.
- Produce moderate to heavy rain for the I-95 cities with 1-2” possible, and the highest amounts in coastal New England (lowest amounts probably in mid-Atlantic, where 1” might be a little aggressive).
- Produce heavy snow well north and west of the big cities, with heavy snow possible in places like Scranton, Pa., Albany, NY and Burlington, Vt. Double digit totals are certainly possible in the mountains. Winter storm watches are out for a large area of the interior Northeast and New England.
- Produce strong winds, especially in coastal New England Friday where 30-40 mph gusts are possible Friday. Wind gusts in the mid-Atlantic Friday should be in the range of 20-30 mph.
- Be a relatively fast mover, ending in D.C./Baltimore by Friday morning, Philadelphia and New York midday into early Friday afternoon, and Friday night in Boston.
The storm may:
- Impact the Nats-Braves game starting at 1:05 p.m. Thursday with rain possibly developing during the middle or late innings in D.C.
- Impact the Phillies-Astros game at 1:05 p.m. Friday (in Philadelphia) with lingering showers.
- Cause power outages in the interior Northeast/New England due to the heavy, wet character of the snow
- End as a mix of rain and snow or briefly all snow for the I-95 cities, but with little or no accumulation except perhaps around Boston where a sloppy inch could fall Friday night. The north and west suburbs of these cities stand the best chance of seeing wet flakes.
The storm will not:
- Be a repeat of the April fools’ day storm of 1997 where around two feet of snow fell in Boston. It is faster moving, not as dynamic, and will not generate the same amount of cold air.
Models trending warmer for east coast city Friday storm.
- Seriously disrupt the Yankees/Tigers game being played inNew York Thursday at 1:05 p.m.
- Be the blockbuster April Fools’ snowstorm for the big cities some forecasters were hyping yesterday. For his part, Joe Bastardi has backed off his predictions from yesterday, blogging: “...the storm is far enough west so the big cities are not the thump target.”