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Snowfall predictions by category (amount range)We received 677 submissions for predicting the 2011-2012 snowfall total at Reagan National Airport from readers. The average forecast was for 22” with a median forecast of 19.6”. The highest snowfall prediction was for an epic 91.4” of snow with the lowest a paltry 2.1”. Interestingly, not a single reader predicted we’ll be shutout this winter with no more snow.
The chart above shows the distribution of forecasts. By far, the most popular snowfall category was 10-20”, close to the D.C.’s 30-year average of 14.5”. But a third of entrants predicted a healthy 20-30 inches. Overall, about half of you forecast more than 20” of snow and half less.
Bar chart showing Capital Weather Gang’s probabilities for snow amounts at Reagan National Airport, versus the percentage of CWG readers who predicted amounts in those ranges.
Compared to the Capital Weather Gang (CWG), readers were significantly more aggressive with predictions. Whereas CWG assigned just a 15% chance of more than 18-30” of snow, about 40% of readers predicted that amount. And whereas CWG gave a 15% chance of less than 6” of snow, just 2% of readers predicted that little.
Thanks for voting, and think snow!
Related: Capital Weather Gang’s winter outlook: 10-14” forecast
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