An energetic autumn front will close in on the Washington, D.C. metro region Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing the possibility of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms.
The most likely timing for any storms is during the evening, probably between 5-11 p.m. Some heavy downpours are a decent bet and a few storms may produce gusty to very gusty winds (at least 30 mph, and up to 60 mph at the high end). Severe weather is not likely, but a possibility given the overall set up.
With Thursday’s high temperatures only in the low 70s, instability will not be exceptionally high, but the front moving through is dynamic.
Writes the National Weather Service: ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WOULD BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, indicating a 15 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point in our region.
Rainfall totals should average under 0.5”, but locally heavier amounts are possible.