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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 05/06/2011

Forecast: Comfortable weekend with some shower threats

Saturday may be the premiere day

Today's Daily Digit
 
A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 
Comfortable 70s and some sunshine before any p.m. showers is a decent one in my book! Enjoy your day.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Breezy with a.m. sun, possible p.m. shower. Near 70 to mid-70s. | Tonight: Very cloudy, showers still possible. Upper 40s to low 50s. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, cloudier p.m. Near 70 to mid-70s. | Sunday: Battling clouds and sun. Showers possible. Near 70. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Focusing on the temperatures, wow we are in for a treat. With comfortable temperatures secured, isolated to scattered showers are our penance today through Tuesday, with the exception of Saturday, when we may escape dry! You’ll see in the details below that much of the weekend is salvageable. It’s just that cold air aloft will keep pulsing through the region, all the while sunshine most mornings will bubble up warmer air and destabilize the atmosphere during afternoon hours. Nothing severe or terrible though!


Clouds: Latest mid-Atlantic infrared satellite shows movement of clouds over past two hours. Refresh page to update. See more maps on our Weather Wall.

Today (Friday): Starts off sunny but clouds slowly increase as the day progresses. High temperatures run up nicely into the comfortable low-70s. Mid-70s are possible if the clouds are fewer and later than currently expected. It is ahead of a weak front that a few stratus, and perhaps some cumulus, stream in from the west. By late afternoon (3 to 4 p.m.) we may see a 30-40% chance of a shower. Rush Hour may squeak by dry, but it’ll be a close call. Breezes from the south could be moderate at times, in the 10-15 mph range. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: I believe showers stay in the picture until past dinner time (20-30% chance). You know how it works, take an umbrella and it won’t rain. David said it best yesterday “an umbrella in hand is a good guarantee that they [showers] stay away.” Overcast skies, even if not producing showers, may persist through the entire night. This blanket of cloudcover should aid in holding low temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Breezes should stay light, out of the west. Confidence: Medium

No severe weather, really? Read more about these afternoon & evening showers...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Sunny and just a beautiful spring day. Great for outdoor activities — like a wine festival, or vineyard tasting — so, do something spring-like and get outside! High temperatures will be subjectively “perfect” in the low-to-mid 70s. By late afternoon a few more clouds could move overhead, associated with a weak disturbance moving nearer our area. Slight northwest breezes keep conditions comfortable and all summer-like mugginess at-bay! Please, please, lather on some SPF 30+ sunscreen if out between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. Conditions look perfect for unfiltered UV rays from the sun that may approach “extreme” levels. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: After a fantastic day, clouds form a mostly overcast sky after sunset. The aforementioned weak disturbance is in the upper atmosphere is moving-in closer, now, from the west. Its associated unstable, cold air aloft could spawn a few showers. Shower chances (30%) increase more as the evening turns into night. Any showers should be isolated, quick, and not heavy. Lows looks similar to Friday night but with a slightly wider range: upper 40s (suburbs) to mid-50s (downtown). Confidence: Medium

Mother’s Day (Sunday): Appears a bit tricky to predict with confidence. Clouds may linger for much of the day and produce a few showers but with only currently about 20% chance of them lingering long. If showers persist, temperatures may stay in the 60s. Should the disturbance clear the region by morning and allow skies to clear at least partially — temperatures could climb into the low-to-mid 70s. Right now the less rainy outcome (especially north and east) is slightly more likely to happen, so we’ll say around 70 for highs. Confidence: Low

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night lows don’t fall much, especially with cloudcover more likely than not to persist in some fashion. Region-wide we should stay in the 50s. A slight tinge of humidity might become palpable in the air, too. Showers, if any, should have already cleared the region prior to dinnertime. Confidence: Low-Medium

Again the pattern may repeat on Monday. Sunnier morning and a cloudier afternoon with a small threat (20% chance) of a shower or two. We are under a somewhat broad trough in the jet stream that is sending periodic packets of upper-level cold air over our region almost daily. It is this instability that keeps the forecast confidence low, but we do know one thing: cold air above warm air is going to mix into at least some clouds, if not showers! Temperatures, though, should pull through. Keeping it a decent day, highs may hit the low-to-mid 70s. More clouds mean lower temperatures in that range. Confidence: Low

Tuesday keeps things going in more or less broken record fashion, and may be a repeat of Monday. But shower chances are just a bit lower, around 10-20%. High temperatures are still in a sweet-spot though. They should shoot for the mid-70s. Confidence: Low

By Camden Walker  |  05:00 AM ET, 05/06/2011

 
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