Forecast: A calm Monday, big winter storm potential Wednesday

* Winter storm watch (except S. Md.) Tuesday night to Wednesday night for potential for 5 inches or more snow *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny. 40-45. | Tonight: Mostly clear. 24-30. | Tomorrow: Increasing clouds, chance of light rain late. 40-45.


A daily assessment of the potential for *accumulating* snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. More info


FORECAST IN DETAIL


Today (Monday): A sunny day, but one that feels more like early February than early March. Despite the ample sunshine, highs only reach 40-45. Winds are from the northwest at around 10-20 mph with some higher gusts. It will feel more like the 30s this afternoon. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clear and cold, with lows in the low-to-mid 20s in the colder suburbs to near 30 downtown. Winds from the northwest are light, around 5-10 mph. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): High clouds increase in the morning and the cloud cover lowers and thickens in the afternoon. There’s an outside chance of a little light rain before dark. Highs range from 40-45. Winds are light. Confidence: Mediium-High

Tomorrow night: Rain and snow are likely to develop, especially after midnight. Rain or a rain/snow mix is likely to change to snow before dawn along and west of I-95. Lows range from 30-34 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Snow is likely Wednesday, except rain or snow mainly east of I-95. The snow could be heavy at times. But if the storm tracks too far south, lighter precipitation would be expected, and more rain may mix with the snow, even west of I-95. Highs should range from 32-36 (western suburbs-city)

Snow and/or rain tapers off Wednesday night, with lows 30-34 (suburbs-city).

Here are our current snowfall odds:

Chance of 2” or more: 70-80 percent
Chance of 5” or more: 45-60 percent
Chance of 10” or more: 10-30 percent

Note: The low end of the ranges apply to D.C./I-95 and points east, while the higher end of the ranges apply to areas west of D.C. and I-95 (where the accumulation potential is greater due to colder temperatures).

Confidence: Low-Medium

Thursday and Friday at least partially clear out behind the storm, but they are breezy and remain colder than normal. Thursday is the windier and colder of the two days, with highs 35-40, while Friday’s highs reach the mid-40s or so. Overnight lows are in the 20s to near 30. Confidence: Medium

Temperatures moderate for the weekend, with highs near 50 Saturday under partly sunny skies. By Sunday, highs may climb into the mid-50s, while clouds increase. There’s a slight chance of a rain shower by Sunday evening. Overnight lows Saturday range from 33-40 (suburbs-city) Confidence: Medium

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.

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