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Posted at 08:45 AM ET, 03/03/2013

D.C. area forecast: Chilly and breezy ahead of possible midweek winter storm

8:45 a.m. Update: Tuesday night into Wednesday night brings our best chance for significant snow in more than two years. Precipitation looks to be moderate to heavy at times, though that could still change with a change in storm track, and uncertainty remains as to how much will be snow versus rain or sleet. Here are our latest storm odds:

35% chance: A minor to moderate storm producing ~1-4” of snow, likely mixed with rain and perhaps some sleet. Highest accumulations likely west of D.C./I-95.
35% chance: A moderate to major storm producing ~4” or more of snow, possibly starting as or mixed with rain and/or sleet. Highest accumulations likely west of D.C./I-95.
30% chance: A storm that is mainly rain with little to no snow or sleet accumulation except far west suburbs.

We’ll have a full storm update with updated odds this afternoon.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy, breezy. Low 40s. | Tonight: Clearing and cold. Mid-to-upper 20s. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny and breezy. Low-to-mid 40s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

TODAY'S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


Perhaps a bit more sun than yesterday. But chilly with a gusty breeze as temps refuse to budge much past 40 or so. Get the Digit on Twitter | Discuss on Facebook

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for *accumulating* snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. More info


SPI: 6 (↑) - Rising odds for accumulating snow Tues night-Wed night. A little or a lot? Too early to say. Get the SPI on Twitter | Discuss on Facebook

FORECAST IN DETAIL


A few days of relative tranquility, aside from some fairly active breezes, precede a potentially major midweek storm. Today and tomorrow have that winter feel thanks to a blustery chill. Winds let up by Tuesday as we turn our attention to the Tuesday night into Wednesday night storm threat. Might we be looking at a winter wonderland with this one? Well, a good amount of precipitation looks increasingly likely. How much of it is wet versus white remains a major question, but it’s easily our best shot at significant snow in more than two years.

Today (Sunday): Pesky winds from the northwest keep a chill in the air. But on the plus side, we may eke out a little more sun today. The mix of sun and clouds is still likely skewed to the cloudy side though - we’ll call it partly mostly cloudy - and we could again see a few flurries around. Afternoon highs creep into the low 40s with winds blowing around 15 mph, gusting to near 30 mph. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Skies turn mostly clear heading into the overnight hours. Winds continue on the breezy side, though they ease just enough to let temperatures sink to the mid-to-upper 20s for lows. Confidence: High

Keep reading for our latest thoughts on the potential for midweek snow...

Tomorrow (Monday): We break out into mostly sunny skies to begin the new work week, but temperatures are a bit slow to respond. Breezy conditions continue to plague us, with winds from the northwest still gusting to near 30 mph. Highs only climb a couple degrees warmer than today, into the low-to-mid 40s. Confidence: High

Tomorrow night: Winds diminish and skies stay mostly clear for most of the night, but high clouds may arrive from the west toward dawn. Lows drop to the mid-20s to near 30. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Change is in the air on Tuesday as clouds build ahead of an approaching storm, though we should stay dry through most of the day with highs aiming for the mid-40s. Confidence:Medium

Rain or snow (perhaps mixed with sleet) may develop Tuesday night, and the odds of an extended period of possibly moderate to heavy precipitation are increasing for Wednesday and maybe lasting into Wednesday night. Odds of at least some accumulating snow are on the rise and several inches or more is a possibility especially from near D.C. and I-95 toward points west. But a more rainy than snowy scenario can’t be ruled out either. Confidence: Low

We’ll have a full update on the midweek storm threat this afternoon.

Dan Stillman contributed to this forecast.

By  |  08:45 AM ET, 03/03/2013

Categories:  Forecasts | Tags:  forecast, latest

 
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