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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 09/24/2012

D.C. area forecast: Good-looking days to open up fall’s first week, but may turn damp midweek

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny. 69-74. | Tonight: Mostly clear. 39-50. | Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. 73-77. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

TODAY'S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


A supererior sun-soaked day but deductions for chilly start and Redskins secondary. Get the Digit on Twitter| Discuss on Facebook

FORECAST IN DETAIL


The overwhelming majority of days this month have been sun-filled and fantastic. So let’s keep it going. We’ll do that through Tuesday but Wednesday into Thursday I must introduce the chance of some showers. The Friday through Sunday period is a tough forecast. It may end up fine but I worry the pattern might favor chilly, damp conditions - at least part of the time.

Today (Monday): Jackets and fleeces are definitely in order when you get up and head out with a few spots in the upper 30s, and the rest of us in the 40s to near 50. But the sun goes to work, and we rebound to near 70 or a few degrees higher during the afternoon. We have a light breeze from the northwest at 5-10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: A clear, calm and chilly night with high pressure centered over the region. Lows range from the upper 30s in the colder suburbs to near 50 downtown. Confidence: High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): After another crisp start, temperatures moderate with sunshine and light winds coming in from the south. Most of us reach the pleasant mid-70s by afternoon when we’ll probably see some high clouds starting to stream in. Confidence: High

Tomorrow night: Not as chilly with the return of moist, southerly flow. There could (20 percent chance) be a little patchy light rain late night (somewhat higher chances west of town) but most of us are dry, with lows 54-59 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

A slow-moving cold front sags through the region Wednesday and Thursday producing considerable cloud cover and a good chance (better than 50/50) of a few showers. Despite the likelihood of some showers, it's mild and more often dry than wet. It’s impossible to pinpoint the timing of rain showers at the moment except to say afternoon/evening hours are favored. Highs are generally in the mid-to-upper 70s with lows Wednesday night near 60 with winds from the south. Confidence: Medium

Cool high pressure tries to build in from the northwest and north Friday through Sunday. The question is: will it be strong enough to push Thursday’s front sufficientlty far south to bring back the sunny, dry weather? It might, but - to me - the pattern looks conducive to a cool, cloudy period (due to cold air damming) with even the chance of some rain. I don’t expect a three-day deluge but 1-2 days of cloudy, bleak conditions during this stretch wouldn’t surprise me. For now, I’ll call for mostly cloudy skies, with a 30% chance of showers each day, and highs 65-70 with lows 50-55. But this forecast will have to be fine-tuned. Confidence: Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 09/24/2012

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