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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 08/19/2012

D.C. area forecast: Increasing clouds and shower chances

10:15 a.m. update: A large area of showers and embedded t’showers is located just to the south and southwest of the area. There’s a good chance this activity will begin to impact parts of the area by early afternoon, rotating northward through the rest of the day. Showers appear likely across much of the area into evening, and some places could pick up a decent amount of rain (upwards of .5”-1” or so in the heaviest spots). There is still uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain falls — over the region or just to the southeast.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing clouds, showers possible late. Near 80 to mid-80s. | Tonight: Mostly cloudy, showers or periods of rain. Near 60 to mid-60s. | Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers. Low 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

TODAY'S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


Temperatures are near perfect but we may deal with showers late. Still, I say better than most days. Get the Digit on Twitter | Discuss on Facebook

FORECAST IN DETAIL


We aren’t looking at any drought busting area-wide heavy rain events in the near-term, but a stalled frontal boundary provides a focus for shower development through much the next few days. That begins this afternoon and continues through midweek. On the bright side, an upper level low pressure system parked in and around the area promises to keep us in this break from the heat, with highs mainly near 80 to the mid-80s in days ahead.

Today (Sunday): The relatively cool temperatures and low humidity stick around today, though additional clouds and the threat of a few showers bring a change to the weather. While we may start out fairly sunny, a weak area of low pressure to our south combines with northeasterly flow to turn the skies mostly cloudy into the afternoon. There’s also a chance (30%-40%) for some showers to move through, with those in our southern counties perhaps at the highest risk for some rain. Highs are held in check by the clouds and easterly flow, reaching near 80 to the low 80s most spots. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: A number of disturbances moving through manifest several weak areas of low pressure at the surface overnight. That keeps us with a 50% chance for showers throughout. The heaviest of the rain looks to stay to our southeast, but some of the area may be clipped by moderate rain toward morning. There is some model divergence here, with a chance we get more of the area into the heavier rain as well. We’ll let you know if that looks likely as it closes in. Overnight lows range from the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through midweek...

Tomorrow (Monday): The unsettled weather continues tomorrow as waves of low pressure continue to provide a focus for showers to develop. Our winds switch around from the northeast to the southeast bringing in a bit more moisture and warmth. We’ve got a 50% chance for showers, and skies remain mostly cloudy through the day. Highs reach into the lower 80s. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: The shower coverage should diminish after dark but there still should be a few out there, keeping us with a 30% chance overnight. But, we’re nothing if not consistent, with mostly cloudy skies, and lows in the low 60s in the ‘burbs to the mid-or-upper 60s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

As Led Zeppelin might note, The Song Remains the Same, as does the weather — at least for Tuesday and Wednesday anyway. Even as the front pushes offshore, cold air in the upper levels, and some upper-air support, are enough to keep the mention of showers in the forecast (30%). We should see a bit more sun though, enough to at least call it partly sunny. Highs are still on the comfy side too, in the low-to-mid 80s. Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 08/19/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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