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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 02/11/2013

D.C. area forecast: Mild, showery start to week but it trends colder, small snow chances

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Morning showers, then variably cloudy. 55-60. | Tonight: Clearing, breezy, 34-39. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, breezy. Near 50. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

TODAY'S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


Supbar rainy morning balanced by pleasant shot of afternoon warmth. Get the Digit on Twitter| Discuss on Facebook

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for *accumulating* snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. More info


SPI: 4 (→) Two sketchy snow chances. 1) Wednesday may be more rain or even miss. 2) Saturday tough to figure. Get the SPI on Twitter | Discuss on Facebook

FORECAST IN DETAIL


The week begins on showery but mild note, before a series of cold fronts eventually send us back into the deep freeze. Low pressure riding along the second front on Wednesday could offer some pre-Valentine’s Day rain and/or snow, or pass harmlessly south. The third front - of true Arctic origin - brings a stronger cold blast Saturday. Whether it produces a round of storminess is a big question mark.

Today (Monday): Rain showers are likely for the morning commute, so come equipped with an umbrella (rainfall totals generally around 0.25 inch). The rain is probably over by mid-morning after which we should see some intervals of sunshine. Those intervals along with a breeze from the south (at 10 to 15 mph) give temperatures a healthy boost - well into the 50s and perhaps to near 60. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The cold front responsible for the morning rain clears the coast allowing cooler air to spill into the region, and it’s breezy (winds from the west at 10 to 20 mph). Under mostly clear skies, lows range from 34-39 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Tuesday): High pressure builds in from the west supporting mostly sunny skies. The area of low pressure to the north creates a bit of a gradient (large difference in pressure over a small distance), meaning breezy conditions. As such, highs near 50 won’t feel quite so mild with steady winds from the west at 10-20 mph. Confidence: Mediium-High

Tomorrow night: Skies are mostly clear early but low pressure developing to the south may result in some increase in clouds as the night wears on. Lows range from 29-34 (suburbs to city). Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday’s a tricky day. Low pressure to the south may head towards the region or slide to the south. The strength of the low and its proximity will determine whether we receive meaningful precipitation. If we get precipitation, determining the type will be challenging due to just marginal quantities of cold air. Right now, I’ll just call for a 50 percent of rain and/or snow, especially during the afternoon, and leave it at that. CWG’s Wes Junker will provide deeper analysis by early this afternoon on the set-up. Highs should be near 40. Wednesday night, snow and/or rain may continue through midnight or so (50 percent chance), with lows 27-32 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Low-Medium

Thursday and Friday should be two of the more straight forward days this week, as high pressure builds back into the region. That means seasonably chilly highs in the mid-to-upper 40s and lows in the 20s to near 30 (downtown). Confidence: Medium

Some time Saturday, probably early, a strong cold front is likely to power through the region. Low pressure along it could produce a period of rain and/or snow. Cold air follows in its wake with highs Saturday likely steady in the 30s and lows Saturday night perhaps dipping into the teens. It’s breezy as well meaning the likelihood of bitter cold wind chills. Confidence: Low-Medium

Wind should die down some Sunday, but it’s quite cold, with highs probably only 30-35 under partly to mostly sunny skies. Confidence: Low-Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 02/11/2013

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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