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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/27/2012

D.C. area forecast: Rain or mix today; weather warms gradually towards the weekend

* Update, 10 a.m.: Winter weather advisory discontinued for Frederick and Carroll counties *

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Rain or rain/snow mix. 38-44. | Tonight: Clearing. 26-33. | Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, cool. 43-47. | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

TODAY'S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


Cold and wet with rain or mix. Only reason not 0 or 1? No biting wind to add to misery. Get the Digit on Twitter| Discuss on Facebook

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX

A daily assessment of the potential for *accumulating* snow for the next week on a 0-10 scale. More info


SPI: 2 (→) Accumulations light and limited to the higher elevations N & W of Frederick and Leesburg. Get the SPI on Twitter | Discuss on Facebook

FORECAST IN DETAIL

A cold and wet day is in store for the D.C. area! This is the type of day you wish your warm down jacket was also waterproof! It should be mainly a light-moderate rain event for most of us but I can’t rule out a rain/snow mix at times. Any snow accumulation is restricted to higher elevations in Loudoun and Frederick counties. We start a warming trend Wednesday continuing into the weekend as high pressure dominates the region.

Today (Tuesday): Expect a cold and wet day across the area thanks to a low pressure center passing through the region. High temperatures reach the upper 30s to mid-40s which is far below average for this time of year. Precipitation which began in the early morning hours likely tapers in the afternoon.

The big ticket item today is snow! Where will it fall and how much? Areas north and west of a line from around Leesburg to Frederick and areas above 1,000 ft. have the best chance of seeing a light accumulation of the white stuff.

Farther east closer to D.C. it looks like mainly a rain event, but don’t be surprised if a few big snowflakes sneak their way in. Precipitation totals should be in the 0.15-0.35 inch range; not enough to alleviate our November drought. Confidence: Medium-High

Fun fact: Any snowflakes that fall will likely be big, or what I like to call “dinner-plate” snowflakes. A moisture-loaded atmosphere and relatively warm temperatures hovering right around or above freezing generally produces heavy, wet snow and large snowflakes. You need cold and dry air aloft if you want the light and powdery stuff!

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tonight: Clouds decrease from west to east, but it will be fairly chilly due to a light, but cold north wind. Lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s (downtown). Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow (Wednesday): As the low pressure center moves away, high pressure approaches from the west bringing a period of tranquil weather for the next several days. Highs on Wednesday won’t be much warmer than Tuesday’s only reaching the mid-40s, but at least it will be dry. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Cold, but calm. Temperatures will dip into the mid-to-upper 20s for points north and west of the beltway but may only dip into the low-to-mid 30s in the District and south and east. Winds shift around to out of the west. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

High and low temperatures Thursday through Sunday gradually increase with each day.

Thursday looks to be a carbon-copy of Wednesday, but with fewer clouds; highs will be in the mid-40s and overnight lows 27-35 (suburbs-city). By Friday winds become out of the east which could increase cloud cover. Temperatures should still be slightly warmer than Thursday (depending on thickness of cloud cover) in the upper 40s with overnight lows 30-37 (suburbs-city). Confidence: Medium

The weekend looks cloudy with highs near 50 on Saturday (lows in the mid-30s to near 40 Saturday night) climbing to the mid-50s by Sunday afternoon. Confidence: Low-Medium

* Kathryn Prociv is a new contributor to the Capital Weather Gang. She has been a member of the Hokie Storm Chasers of Virginia Tech (VT) since 2010, and is currently a meteorology instructor at VT. She has written guest weather blogs for the Roanoke Times Weather Journal Blog and the Capital Weather Gang, and is very active in the Virginia Tech meteorology community. Her family has lived in the D.C. area since 1998.

By Kathryn Prociv  |  05:00 AM ET, 11/27/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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