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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 08/10/2012

D.C. area forecast: Storms with heavy rain possible throughout the day

6:10 a.m. update: A band of heavy rain, with a few rumbles, is pushing northeast across particularly northern parts of the area. Blinding downpours are possible as this area moves by, as is some ponding on roadways. There’s a little lull right behind this batch of rain, but more areas of moderate to heavy showers and storms could rotate through over the next few hours.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Showers and storms likely. Severe weather possible. 84-91. | Tonight: Showers and storms likely early. Upper 60s to low 70s. | Tomorrow: Slowly clearing, showers possible. Mid-80s. | Sunday: Mostly sunny. Mid-80s to around 90. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

TODAY'S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


Severe storm and flash flood threat quashes my excitement over “cooler” cloud-controlled temperatures. Get the Digit on Twitter | Discuss on Facebook

FORECAST IN DETAIL


We have an unsettled, perhaps volatile at times, day ahead as a cold front and upper-level storm system both want to create storminess across the region. We’re not expecting an area-wide damaging event, but there’s a risk for more than your average storm day in addition to potentially heavy rain. This weekend, we slowly try to give this front the boot, finally doing so by Sunday. That’s the day that looks most like a “gem.” Luckily, the return to work synchs with increased chances for storms and mugginess. Score.

Today (Friday): Don’t be surprised by morning storms (50% chance), then perhaps a bit of sunshine poking through the clouds. If we end up seeing more sun than I am expecting, we could have another 90-degree day on the books. But because afternoon showers and storms (80-90% chance) quickly cloud us over again, we may hold in the mid-to-upper 80s. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy (possibly flash flooding) rain as well as frequent lightning and severe weather. Primary severe weather concerns in this atmospheric setup are damaging winds and hail, but perhaps even an isolated tornado. Confidence: Medium








What is the Storm Threat Level?

Tonight: More showers and storms could keep us wet and watching radar into the late evening (60-70% chance). Assuming you want some water for your garden, many of you could enjoy rain amounts over a half inch when all is done, and perhaps over an inch or two in the jackpot spots. Even if we march toward sunrise before the cold front fully comes through, we should still have rain-cooled air allowing for merciful lower low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Saturday): We may not yet enjoy the fruits of our nearby cold front, but at least skies try clearing and high temperatures halt their rise in the mid-80s or so. Dew points slowly ease down as well, making it a bit more comfortable! Yet a few pesky showers or storms are possible, especially eastward (40-50% chance) from D.C. nearer the cold front, while western spots have lower (20-30%) chances at seeing rain. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: This may be a decent, partially (to mostly?) clear evening for viewing the Perseid meteor shower. Look toward the northeastern sky and after 1 a.m. especially! Should I also recommend a light jacket if readings actually get into the 60s, region-wide? Well, downtown may stay near 70. Still, enjoy, if your body can take it! Confidence: Medium

Sunday: The all clear can finally be issued! We may finally see a pleasant, clearer day with high temperatures in the mid-80s to right around 90 if we get plentiful sunshine. With highly tolerable dew points in the 60s keeping us below the “muggy” threshold for an August day, even I won’t complain (except for higher UV levels!). Wear that sunscreen. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night: Very pleasant, calm, and fairly clear. Low temperatures may actually get below 70 downtown, and some readings in the lower 60s are possible in Winchester, maybe Manassas, and other typically-cool spots. Confidence: Medium-High

Monday marginally increases that humid, sticky feeling in the air. August’s dog days may be back, with somewhat hazy sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Yes that package deal includes a slight (20%) chance of a late day thundershower or storm. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tuesday has an even better (30-40%) chance of showers and storms, with muggy high temperatures aiming for the upper 80s to low 90s again. We’ll watch any storms and update you if we expect any to be stronger than just your garden variety summertime storm. Confidence: Low

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 08/10/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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