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Posted at 05:00 AM ET, 11/23/2012

D.C. area forecast: Unlike shopping, weather pretty peaceful today; Arctic chill on tap tomorrow

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny early, increasing clouds late. PM Shower? 58-63. | Tonight: Shower early? Increasingly chilly and windy. 30s. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny, windy. Low-to-mid 40s. | Sunday: Sunny, less windy. Mid-40s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

TODAY'S DAILY DIGIT

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10


A pretty good deal! Sunshine decreases in p.m., and slight shower risk late. But temperatures stay mild! Get the Digit on Twitter | Discuss on Facebook

FORECAST IN DETAIL


You have one more weather day where you can burn off those Thanksgiving calories with outdoor activities and no cold temperatures to deal with. Breezes pick up by tonight and turn into full blown Arctic winds for Saturday into early Sunday. It won’t be until Monday that the atmosphere can start returning us toward more average, seasonal conditions—thanks to southerly flow ahead of a disturbance nearing us by Tuesday. Any mild air probably won’t last long though.

Today (Black Friday): Pretty decent, even as clouds stream in toward sunset. Photographers stay on alert for sunset splendor, possibly? High temperatures around 60 to lower 60s (more likely south of town, if we stay sunny enough) are above average—annoying for some of you wanting season-appropriate chill—but shoppers will appreciate the conditions. No need for a heavy coat, or probably even an umbrella. Just note that south-southwesterly breezes do pick up later in the day, so have a light jacket as the sun goes down, and consider you may have to briefly dodge a quick shower by late afternoon. Confidence: High

Tonight: Around and just after dinner there is a (10-20%) chance for a sprinkle or two—also an indication the cold front is upon us. And here comes the Arctic air! You’ll notice that the winds shift during the evening to come from the northwest and they may strengthen during the night. If staying out and about, be sure to have a scarf and gloves on hand for later. If it weren’t for the winds starting to gust out of the northwest toward 25 mph, low temperatures mainly in the mid-to-upper 30s (perhaps a bit cooler well north and west) wouldn’t feel all that bad. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend...

Tomorrow (Saturday): Don’t let your eyes trick you when seeing sunny periods, more often than cloudy ones. It is very chilly, with strong northwesterly winds blowing 15-25 mph at times, and gusting toward 35 mph perhaps. Temperatures do indeed struggle to get “high” at all. Even the low-to-mid 40s might be tough. Sure, the potential (10% chance) does exist for a random sprinkle or a few flurries to fall from our scattered “instability clouds” (due to cold air aloft) that we may see after sunshine has a chance to warm the surface a bit. Any conversational flakes are more likely west of D.C., around the higher terrain near the Blue Ridge. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Clear skies allow for the coldest yet, or at least second-coldest readings of the season depending on location. This should be the coldest of the year in D.C. itself though. Bundle up! Low temperatures in the 20s for the region—even downtown perhaps dipping there—will feel wintery. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: Winds die down into breezes, and also shift, coming from a west direction just a bit. It should feel less biting, overall. Temperatures still remain muted, largely in the mid-40s, despite slackening cold breezes and plenty of bright sunshine. Confidence: Medium-High

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday night: This one looks mainly clear, and crisp. Mid-20s are possible in the coldest spots, if the air remains still and breezes completely die down, while downtown hits the lower 30s briefly. Confidence: Medium

Monday may be that day when we can all agree it “feels warmer” and that our cold snap has ceded. High temperatures rise above 50 again, if not toward the mid-50s in many spots. A few clouds seem possible by evening time, as a disturbance gets its act together in the Deep South, but that shouldn’t take away mainly sunny conditions—to enjoy—throughout the day. Confidence: Medium

Tuesday is when we start feeling more effects from that disturbance, riding northward from the South. It appears we should stay on the warm side of the storm so that southerly flow dominates our region, helping to bring high temperatures well into the 50s. Yet, sunshine may be hard to come by, as mostly cloudy skies threaten to bring a 30-40% chance of showers. There’s also some risk the storm is prevented from riding to our north, and that could bring a colder solution and potential for wintry precip onto the table. Stay tuned... Confidence: Medium

By  |  05:00 AM ET, 11/23/2012

Categories:  Forecasts

 
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