Surely, I jinxed us Sunday afternoon. As a solid line of storms stretched from northwest Montgomery county through Loudoun county and into western Fauquier county, I wrote: “It doesn’t look like this line of storms ... is going to miss.” Within 15 minutes, a large gap developed in the northern half of the line, and it passed over northern Fairfax county, the northern half of the District, southern Montgomery and northern Prince George’s counties with nary a drop.
Despite rain chances varying from 30 to 60 percent Thursday through Sunday, most of the region inside the beltway grossly underachieved in the precipitation department with multi-day totals of less than 0.10”. Our lawns and gardens are now paying for it.
How bad are the rainfall deficits?
At Reagan National (DCA), just 0.27” has fallen so far in June, more than 1” below average. In May, DCA’s monthly rain total fell 2.12” shy of average. The deficit on the year is now 3.38”.
At Dulles, June rain is about 1.5” below average - but the annual deficit is just 0.77”.
Rain chances return later this week. Forecasters, however, are often wise to follow the rule “when in drought, leave it [the rain] out [of the forecast]” as depleted soil moisture and a dry weather pattern tend to feedback on themselves. Let me put it this way, until I see compelling evidence we’re going to get meaningful rain, I’m going to be more conservative in my rainfall forecasts.
Related: The D.C. dry tongue